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EUR/USD News
#1
1 week Trend: (=) 1 month Trend: (=)
EUR/USD MT: turning down.
Pivot: 1.3500

Our Preference: SHORT position below 1.35 with 1.2850 & 1.26 in sight.

Alternative Scenario: Above 1.35 up move to 1.3875 & 1.4235.

Comment: the pair is posting a rebound but remains capped by its bearish channel upper boundary.

Trend: ST Ltd Downside; MT Range, we have been bearish since 7 MAR 2012 (1.3117).

Key levels Comment

1.4235 *** Horizontal resistance
1.3875 ** Horizontal resistance
1.3500 *** MT pivot point
1.3225 Last
1.2850 *** Horizontal support
1.2600 *** Previous low
1.2400 *** Horizontal support
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#2
EUR/USD is Directionless Between 1.30 and 1.32

[Image: eurusd04192012h4.gif]

After an initial push to the downside which cracked 1.30, the EUR/USD has had a directionless week. So this week, the market has been trading between 1.3165 and 1.3055. These are intra-week pivots, but the range it needs to break out of to reflect direction is between 1.32 and 1.30. A break above 1.32, opens up 1.33, which is also where a declining triangle is projected. To the downside, below 1.30, we also need to break below a 1.2970 pivot pivot to extend the bearish outlook, with support pivots near 1.2870, and then near 1.2625.
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[Image: TTU3tZW.jpg]
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#3
esok tak tau la camna pergerakan.. Cokeng lagi ke Sad
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#4
[Image: phqWq.png]

Weekly chart
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#5
EUR/USD Fails to Maintain Short-term Bullish Momentum; at Trendline

[Image: eurusd04232012h1.gif]

The EUR/USD has broken above 1.32, but has so far failed to sustain that upside push. The 1H RSI reading tagged 70, but then failed to stay above 40, showing a lacking of follow-through momentum. To start the 4/23 US trading session, the EUR/USD has retreated to 1.3120, testing the 200-hour simple moving average. This is also the area of a rising trendline, going back to the low from the previous week just under 1.30.

With risk aversion showing, the USD might strengthen, even if its within the short-term, the downside risk is to 1.30 if the 1.31 level gets cleared. Still, in the medium term, the market is directionless unless we can either break above 1.33 (triangle resistance; refer to previous update), or below 1.2970. And if the market can hold above 1.31 in the 4/23 US trading session, it is a sign that bulls are still in charge, and the 1.33 level is still in sight.
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#6
[Image: eurusd04262012h4.gif]

The EUR/USD has been rallying in the past 2 weeks after it barely cracked the 1.30 handle on 4/13/2012. It has since been treading with a relatively well-behaving trendline. The 4H chart shows a market in a rising channel or wedge pattern. The moving averages, and price action relative to the moving averages reflect a directionless market in the 4H time-frame. The RSI shows a bearish divergence and combined with a strong bearish 4H candle to end the 4/26 trading session, there some sign of exhaustion after a laborious 2-week rally.

In the 4H chart, we can see that a slide below 1.3140 will be a clear sign of breakout below the rising pattern. In this scenario, we would open up the 1.2970-1.30 support zone. If the 4/27 European session instead respect the rising trendline, as well as other support factors near 1.3170, there is still upside toward the 1.33 handle (near a declining trendline as well) if the market can once again push above 1.3250. A persistent bullish market going above 1.33 and the declining trendline opens up the 1.3380, and 1.3480 resistance areas.

Near 1.33, we might have a counter-trend bearish scenario where we might have a bearish correction even if the market is turning bullish. The 1.32 handle will be of interest for a rejection from 1.33.

Below 1.3140, we might have a breakout scenario, with short-term outlook limited to 1.30, with some more common lows in the short-term near 1.3050.
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#7
(San Francisco) - The EUR/USD continued its steady decline on Thursday and touched a fresh 4-month low as it traded a 1.2665/1.2748 range intraday, closing down around 15 pips to 1.2697, its fifth successive day of losses.

The decline came as stocks fell sharply to multi-month lows in Europe and the US, while gold soared to $ 1579.80/oz, inspiring a strong fleet to safety into the dollar and yen.

“The bearish trend remains in place although a break below 1.2660 is required to confirm an extension towards 1.2625 yearly low,” says Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com.

Last quoted in the 1.2690 area, should the pair push lower in the global day ahead, Ms. Bednarik identifies support levels at 1.2660, 1.2625 and 1.2585. To the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.2700, 1.2730 and 1.2760.
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#8
[Image: 538231_339615026112235_100001912208057_5...2428_n.jpg]

EUR/USD MT: under pressure.
Pivot: 1.3300

Our Preference: SHORT position below 1.33 with 1.26 & 1.24 in sight.

Alternative Scenario: Above 1.33 up move to 1.35 & 1.3875.

Comment: the pair has broken below its support and is challenging its previous low.

Trend: ST Ltd Downside; MT Range, we have been bearish since 7 MAR 2012 (1.3117).

Key levels Comment

1.3875 ** Horizontal resistance
1.3500 *** Horizontal resistance
1.3300 *** MT pivot point
1.2652 Last
1.2600 *** Previous low
1.2400 ** Horizontal support
1.1900 *** Horizontal support
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#9
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Commerzbank analysts point to a consolidating EUR/USD after having dropped as low as 1.2495 last Friday. “The new low of 1.2495 charted last week has not been confirmed by the daily RSI and this suggests caution here and some near term consolidation”, said analyst Karen Jones, suggesting 1.2681 as initial resistance ahead of key 1.2796/1.2825 (interim high and Fibonacci retracement).

On the downside, a break of 1.2495/90 support would lead to a continuing fall. Key area below is at at 1.2067 (55-month MA).
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#10
EUR/USD Confirmed Bearish Breakout; 2008 Low 1.2330 in Sight

[Image: eurusd05302012h1.gif]

The breakout from consolidation came with a break below 1.25 in the 5/29 US session. Then there was a end-of-session pullback to 1.25 with bears standing ground. After this picture-perfect breakout confirmation, the market fell lower throughout the 5/30 Asian and European session now trading just below 1.2450 as we gear up for the US session.

While a conventional range breakout projection targets the 1.2390-1.24 level. The breakout really opens up the 2008 low at 1.2330. We might anticipate some consolidation, or correction at levels around the 2008-low, but there is still downside risk toward the psych level of 1.20 and the 2010-low near 1.19.

Spanish 10-yr yield continued to rise, now at 6.6. Manwhile the Spanish/German 10-yr bond yield spread also widened to 535 from 523 as this number continues to push above record levels. Italian auction did not raise the target of 6.25bn euros in its 5-yr and 10-yr government bond auction. (raised 5.73bn euros)
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