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GDMFX - Weekly News
#81
FOREX NEWS: EUROGROUP MEETINGS TO AFFECT THE EURO AS U.S. DOLLAR STRENGTH CONTINUES


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday the Non Farm Payrolls showed an increase to 295K while analysts’ consensus was 240K thus the US Dollar strengthened substantially against the euro and the pair experienced a sharp selloff.

[Image: 2015.03.09-Eurogroup-Meetings-to-affect-...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

Although the bears are in complete control of the pair and 1.1000 support was broken, we expect bullish pullbacks mainly because the current move seems overextended and both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are deep in oversold territory. The main bias is of course bearish so we will probably see further downside movement after brief retracements; 1.0765 is the next potential support level.

Fundamental Outlook

Important political and financial personalities will attend today the Eurogroup Meetings. The Greek bailout will be one of the topics thus euro volatility might be present. Other than this, the fundamental scene is slow and no major economic indicators are released.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar strengthened across the board and the Pound-Dollar pair dropped for more than 200 pips Friday on the back of a strong U.S. Non Farm Payrolls report.

[Image: 2015.03.09-Eurogroup-Meetings-to-affect-...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The recent strength exhibited by the US Dollar is likely to continue throughout the week but bullish pullbacks are a distinct possibility today; however the extent of these bullish moves should be limited. Notable resistance is located at 1.5200 while support sits at 1.4830 but both levels are far away from current price so we don’t expect either of them to be touched today; support and resistance levels should be identified on lower time frames (i.e. 15 minutes chart) but these are less reliable.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major economic releases scheduled for today so price action will be mostly influenced by technical factors.
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#82
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: U.S. DOLLAR AT HISTORICAL HIGHS – FED INTEREST RATE TAKES CENTER STAGE


EUR/USD



Forex Technical Analysis: The pair continued to drop throughout last week and so far, there is no real sign of downtrend weakness. The bulls managed to take price higher during one day only but the gains were quickly erased.

[Image: 2015.03.16-2015.03.22-U.S.-Dollar-at-his...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Profit taking might take price higher this week but the bears are the strongest they have been in many years so we anticipate further downside movement after brief bullish pullbacks. The current level at 1.0500 could not be clearly broken last week but price is likely to surpass it early this week. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are oversold and this might generate retracements that will most likely find resistance on the lower time-frame charts.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Frankfurt at a finance summit and this could be a reason for sharp moves but the extent of the impact is not fully known, depending on the topics he will discuss.

Tuesday’s main releases are the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey and the U.S. Building Permits but Wednesday will be the most important day of the week for the US Dollar, as the Fed Meetings will take center stage. The interest rate is announced (no change anticipated yet), a press conference is held and the FOMC will release Economic Projections and a Statement. This cluster of events is likely to have a strong impact on the greenback, especially because speculation about a rate hike in June is increasing.

Thursday the ECB will announce their targeted LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option) and the European Union Economic Summit will begin. Friday no major indicators are scheduled for release.


GBP/USD

The pair printed a new multi-year low last week, the downtrend is renewed and important support was broken. It was another week when the bears were in complete control and price traveled sharply south.

[Image: 2015.03.16-2015.03.22-U.S.-Dollar-at-his...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.4830 was an important barrier and now that it is broken, we expect further downside movement. However, over the last two weeks price traveled very fast and this type of movement is likely to be followed by a consolidation period. We expect a pullback into 1.4830, which is likely to become resistance but a move above it is not out of the question. The overall bias remains strongly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Wednesday is the most important day of the week for the Pound: the Bank of England will make public the latest interest rate votes and the Claimant Count Change is released, showing fluctuations in the number of people who ask for unemployment related benefits. The same day the British Annual Budget is released, showing financial objectives but also levels of spending and income for the government. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.
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#83
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DOWNTREND WAVERS. DOLLAR STILL HAS STEAM LEFT.


EUR/USD



Forex Technical Analysis: The Dollar lost its appeal last week as the Fed showed concern about American inflation, postponing a potential rate hike. As a result, the entire week was controlled by the bulls and the pair bounced at support.

[Image: 2015.03.23-%E2%80%93-2015.03.29-Downtren...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The bullish move which began last week is likely to continue until 1.1000 – 1.1100 zone is reached again. If this new encounter with resistance will coincide with an overbought condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index, we expect bearish pressure to increase and price to start downside motion again. If the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will be in close vicinity, it will create a confluence zone which will be hard to break. To the downside, first support is located at 1.0640 followed by the zone around 1.0500.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament on monetary policy. As always, his public appearances are a reason for increased volatility and should be treated with caution. Tuesday the French and German Manufacturing PMIs are released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about the state of the manufacturing sector. Lately these surveys have a mild impact on the market but readings that differ a lot from analysts’ consensus might create strong movement.

A more important indicator is released the same day: the U.S. Consumer Price Index. This is one of the most important gauges of inflation and might affect strongly the greenback’s next move. Wednesday we have the German IFO Business climate and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, again two indicators which lost some of their ability to move the market strongly but still, better numbers will strengthen the respective currency.

Thursday lacks major news releases and Friday the U.S. final version of the Gross Domestic Product is released, followed later in the day by a speech delivered by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.


GBP/USD

Although it was a choppy week, price finished it higher, on the back of U.S. Dollar weakness. Also profit taking by traders who were short on the pair, helped the pair in its weekly climb.

[Image: 2015.03.23-%E2%80%93-2015.03.29-Downtren...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

Although we had a bullish week, this doesn’t mean the downtrend is over and this week we expect the pair to descend into the zone located near 1.4640. Keep in mind that both oscillators are moving out of oversold territory at this suggests that we may see further upside movement. If this is the case, the first barrier in front of rising prices is located at 1.5000 followed by the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

Two important British events make this week’s headlines: Tuesday the Consumer Price Index is released, offering information about U.K. inflation and Thursday the Retail Sales numbers come out. The retail sector is one of the most important for an economy and that’s the reason why higher values usually strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers.
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#84
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: U.S. JOBS SITUATION: A STEP AHEAD FOR THE DOLLAR OR A PUSH BACK?


EUR/USD



Forex Technical Analysis: Last week’s economic data was mixed and so was the pair’s path. Movement was choppy, with a lot of quick reversals on intra-day charts. Price bounced at resistance but the bears weren’t able to take price below support so uncertainty is still present.

[Image: 2015.03.30-%E2%80%93-2015.04.05-U.S.-job...24x595.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair tried several times to move above 1.1000 but failed to do so and now rejection candles (long upper wicks) are visible on the Daily chart. The Stochastic is moving upwards but it is starting to curve and price came in close vicinity to a confluence zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and horizontal resistance. On top of these facts, the main trend is down so we expect this week to belong to the bears. First support, although a minor one, is located at 1.0780, followed by the important level at 1.0500.

Fundamental Outlook

The first day of the week marks the release of the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of German inflation. Since the German economy is of major importance to the entire Euro Zone, the release is likely to have a strong impact. European CPI follows Tuesday. Inflation has been a worrying issue lately because ECB’s target is just below 2.0% and current levels are considered way to low.

Wednesday the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change comes out, offering us the first look into the U.S. jobs situation. The report is released by a privately owned company and tries to mimic the more important Government report released 2 days later. Friday many banks around the world will be closed in observance of Good Friday so volatility might be affected but the United States will release the Non-Farm Employment Change which is considered the most important jobs-related indicator. A higher number is beneficial for the greenback because it shows a healthy jobs market and suggests that consumer spending is likely to pick up in the near future.


GBP/USD

The pair remained inside a tight horizontal channel for almost the entire week although some attempts to break the range were made. Both British and U.S. data was mixed and this contributed to the choppy movement.

[Image: 2015.03.30-%E2%80%93-2015.04.05-U.S.-job...24x595.png]

Technical Outlook

During every day of the last week the pair tested the support at 1.4830 but the bears couldn’t break the level. We expect the choppy price action to continue during the first days of this week but the pair is under bearish pressure so we consider that a break of the mentioned level will soon follow. If this is the case, price will head towards the next support, which is located at 1.4650 but a bullish break of 1.5000 would invalidate this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the British Current Account is released, showing the difference between imported and exported goods during the previous quarter. At the same time the Final Gross Domestic Product is released but this version tends to have the lowest impact out of the three (Preliminary, Second Estimate and Final).

The British Manufacturing PMI comes out Wednesday, followed Thursday by the Construction PMI and Friday U.K. banks are closed due to Good Friday so we expect slow trading until the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls.
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#85
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: SLOW WEEK AHEAD AS EASTER HOLIDAYS TAKE A BITE OUT OF VOLATILITY


EUR/USD



Forex Technical Analysis: Last week started with the bears in control but the pair moved higher after a bounce at 1.0720 and a disappointing U.S. jobs report. Major resistance wasn’t broken but the downtrend is wavering.

[Image: 2015.04.06-%E2%80%93-2015.04.12-Slow-wee...24x595.png]

Technical Outlook

The bullish price action was stopped by the resistance at 1.1000 but the pair is supported by a bullish trend line which will be the first barrier if the sellers try to take price lower. To the upside the 50 period Exponential Moving Average combined with 1.1000 – 1.1100 zone will offer resistance and a break would open the door for a move close to 1.1450 which is the next level of interest. Before price will decide direction we expect another encounter with the bullish trend line.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday many banks around the world will be closed in celebration of Easter and the fundamental scene is pretty slow. The only noteworthy release is the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI which is a leading indicator of economic health derived from the opinions of purchasing managers outside the manufacturing sector.

Wednesday we’ll keep an eye on European Retail Sales numbers and later in the day the FOMC will release the minutes of their latest meeting, containing in-depth details about the reasons which influenced their latest interest rate vote. Thursday’s only highlight is the release of the U.S. Unemployment Claims while Friday will be another slow day in terms of European and U.S. economic news releases.


GBP/USD

The entire last week was very slow for the Pound-Dollar pair except for Friday when a worse than expected U.S. employment report drove price higher. Price sits now above support but resistance is not yet threatened.

[Image: 2015.04.06-%E2%80%93-2015.04.12-Slow-wee...24x595.png]

Technical Outlook

Lately price moved many times above and below 1.4830 but wasn’t able to move away decisively. The latest move could be what the bulls were waiting for and we might see further upside action. However if the sellers manage to move price quickly below the mentioned level, a new leg of the downtrend might start. The levels to watch this week (apart from 1.4830) are 1.5000 as resistance and 1.4635 as support but keep an eye on the Daily 50 period EMA because it could offer resistance as well.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the United Kingdom will release the Services PMI which will offer insights into the health of the services sector from the viewpoint of purchasing managers. Wednesday the Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision but since no change is expected yet and no press conference takes place, we don’t believe the event will create strong moves. Friday the British Manufacturing Production numbers come out followed by an estimate of the Gross Domestic Product. The strength of the moves generated by these events will depend a lot on the difference between analysts’ forecast and the actual numbers. As always the pair’s movement will be also affected by the U.S. events.
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#86
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DOWNTREND REGAINS MOMENTUM. ECB MEETING IN THE SPOTLIGHT


EUR/USD



Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the bears took control of the pair and managed to take price almost 500 pips lower. Each day finished lower than it started and only brief bullish movement was seen.

[Image: 2015.04.13-%E2%80%93-2015.04.19-Downtren...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The bullish trend line was broken decisively last week after a bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a Daily chart and now the bears are in control of the pair. The oscillators don’t indicate oversold condition but we expect price to pause or even bounce higher if the important support at 1.0500 is reached. First potential resistance is located at 1.0720 but the bias remains bearish, with the possibility of bullish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday the fundamental scene is slow and no major news is released but Tuesday an important economic indicator will affect the US Dollar: the U.S. Retail Sales. The Fed is closely watching how the economy performs and an increase in sales made at a retail level could mean that we are one a step closer to a rate hike.

Wednesday the ECB will announce the interest rate and President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference which will offer more details about future monetary policy. The press conference is almost always accompanied by strong reaction on euro related pairs so caution is recommended.

Thursday keep an eye on the U.S. Building Permits and Friday the U.S. CPI will be the main market mover because this is one of the most important gauges of inflation.


GBP/USD

Dollar strength was seen against the Pound as well and the pair traveled south for the entire week, breaking the important support located at 1.4830. The Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and didn’t offer hints about the next increase.

[Image: 2015.04.13-%E2%80%93-2015.04.19-Downtren...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

After breaking 1.4830 decisively the pair traveled into the support located in the zone around 1.4635 but although the week finished below this level, the break cannot be considered valid yet. However, as long as price remains below 1.4830, the bias is negative and we expect the downtrend to continue. If this is the case, the next support is located around 1.4350, a level better seen on a Weekly chart.

Fundamental Outlook

British inflation data comes out Tuesday in the form of the Consumer Price Index and Friday we will get insights into the British unemployment situation once the Claimant Count Change is released. Other than that the Pound has a slow week in terms of news releases and center stage will be held by the U.S. announcements.
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#87
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: EUROGROUP MEETINGS AND GREEK DEBT HEADLINE THE WEEK AHEAD


EUR/USD



Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the bulls managed to take the pair higher after a move close to key support. The U.S. economic data released throughout the week didn’t match analysts’ expectations and this allowed the euro to edge higher.

[Image: 2015.04.20-%E2%80%93-2015.04.26-Eurogrou...24x595.png]

Technical Outlook

The support zone around 1.0500 proved strong last week but the climb is not a trend changer. It is normal for price to make several attempts before breaking an important level so we still consider that a move below 1.0500 is possible. There is strong resistance in close vicinity of price, represented by the daily 50 period Exponential Moving Average and by a bearish trend line visible on the chart above. If this resistance zone is surpassed, the next place where bearish movement can resume is located at 1.1000.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead is headlined by the Eurogroup Meetings which take place Friday. The meetings carry extra weight this time because a solution must be reached for the Greek debt problem. There have been talks about a potential Greek separation from the European Union if progress in the debt issue is not made but so far an exit remains questionable.

Before the Eurogroup Meetings take place the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey is announced Tuesday, showing the opinions of professional investors and analysts about the state of the German economy. Thursday the German and French Manufacturing PMIs are released and Friday we will take a look info U.S. Durable Goods Orders. This indicator focuses on changes in orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years. Because these goods are usually more expensive, an increase in demand shows that consumers are willing to spend money and this leads to increased economic activity.


GBP/USD

The week that just ended belonged almost entirely to the bulls and the pair traveled about 500 pips to the upside before retracing slightly lower. Resistance was pierced but the week finished below it, mostly due to profit taking on long positions.

[Image: 2015.04.20-%E2%80%93-2015.04.26-Eurogrou...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The last daily candle has a long upper wick and is commonly known as a pin bar. This is a sign of rejection and shows that 1.5000 might be the place where bearish price action resumes. Price is sitting on the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and for now we cannot make any prediction about a break or bounce scenario but a move below this dynamic resistance would increase the chances of an extended drop. The levels to watch this week are 1.4830 as support and 1.5000 as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow economic week ahead, with only two notable releases: Wednesday the Bank of England will reveal the votes on the latest rate decision and although no change in the structure is expected, it’s a good opportunity for traders to gauge the overall stance of the BoE regarding a rate hike. Thursday the British Retail Sales come out; the impact of this indicator is usually high because sales made on a retail level represent a major part of the economy.
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#88
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BULLS TAKE A SWING AT RESISTANCE. EURO WEAKENED BY GREEK UNREST


EUR/USD



Forex Technical Analysis: Last week was characterized by mixed trading scenarios and ranging price action as European and American data failed to meet analysts’ expectations. The Eurogroup Meetings didn’t bring a solution to the Greek crisis and tension grew higher between Greek representatives and European Finance Ministers.

[Image: Q2WWGRh.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We saw an attempt to break 1.0720 to the downside, which resulted in a bullish bounce higher, and now price is attempting to move above the resistance zone created by the bearish trend line and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Stochastic is crossed bullish and the lines are spread apart, indicating buyer momentum and the Relative Strength Index is also moving upwards without being overbought. These are bullish signs which suggest that we are likely to see a break of immediate resistance followed by a move into 1.1000 zone but turmoil in the Euro area might have a negative effect on the common currency and in this case the pair is likely to move below 1.0720.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts slow, with no major releases occurring Monday. Tuesday an American Consumer Confidence survey is the main headline while Wednesday will be the busiest day of the week for the US Dollar as the Advance Gross Domestic Product is released, followed later in the day by the Federal Funds Rate decision and the FOMC statement. Although the rate is not expected to change, the Statement is likely to reveal hints about the next increase, which is rumored to happen in June or July.

Thursday a Flash Estimate of the European Consumer Price Index comes out, offering insights into the always-important European inflation and the trading week closes Friday with the release of the U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index which acts as a leading indicator of economic health.


GBP/USD

After a slow start of last week’s trading, the Pound rallied and the pair climbed above 1.5160 resistance. The U.S. economic data released throughout the week disappointed and this contributed to the pair’s rise.

[Image: BWABjfB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the week finished above 1.5160 resistance, we cannot consider this a true break yet. The oscillators are approaching overbought and from a long term perspective the pair is still in a downtrend so we believe that bearish price action will take place this week. Keep in mind that bulls managed to break resistance levels last week so currently they have the upper hand.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released Tuesday. The GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge and the Preliminary version is the most important out of the three (Preliminary, Second Estimate and Final) so we expect it to have a strong impact on the Pound. Friday the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about the state of the manufacturing sector. As always, the pair’s movement will be directly affected by the U.S. data that comes out throughout the week.
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#89
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: U.S. NON FARM PAYROLLS AND U.K PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SET THE STAGE FOR A WILD WEEK


EUR/USD



Forex Technical Analysis: The euro showed clear signs of strength last week, compared to the US Dollar which weakened mostly due to the Fed’s neutral stance regarding an interest rate hike. The entire week was controlled by euro bulls and important resistance was broken.

[Image: 2CSxPM8.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Once the bearish trend line was broken the pair skyrocketed through 1.1000 and 1.1100 resistance, reaching a high of 1.1290 and making the medium term outlook bullish. The next key level is located at 1.1450 but before this is reached we expect price to retrace lower. The last daily candle of the week shows a long upper wick which is a sign of rejection and both the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are overbought; these are hints that a retracement is due but the main bias is bullish. First resistance is located in the zone created between 1.1100 and 1.1000.

Fundamental Outlook

The dollar has an important week ahead considering that employment data is released. Tuesday the U.S. Trade Balance will show the difference between imported and exported goods and services while Wednesday, Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the Non Farm Payrolls. Although this report is not as important as the Government jobs data released two days later, its impact can be strong so caution is recommended. The same day Eurozone Retail Sales numbers come out.

The most important event of the week is undoubtedly the U.S. Non Farm Employment Change (Non Farm Payrolls) released Friday. This is a report that shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and is widely considered the most important employment related indicator for the U.S. economy; its impact is almost always huge, with higher numbers strengthening the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Pound was severely hit by disappointing economic data and a substantial selloff started after an initial climb above resistance. The weekly candle is a huge bearish pin bar which shows rejection and potential downtrend resumption.

[Image: Z62gxoa.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5550 was threatened last week but bears took over and the pair finished below 1.5160. This week we expect price to stall at this level before deciding the next direction; the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity and a touch of this dynamic support is very likely. Both oscillators are moving out of overbought with strong momentum, increasing the chances of further downside movement and making 1.5000 the next target. A bounce higher would open the door for another attempt to break 1.5550.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday UK banks are closed, celebrating May Day this no economic indicators are released. Tuesday the focus is on the Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index and Wednesday the Services PMI comes out. Thursday will probably be the most important day of the week as the British Parliamentary Elections take place. This event is likely to create turmoil on the markets so we recommend caution if trading Pound pairs during the day. The U.S. employment report will also have a direct and strong impact on the pair’s movement.
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#90
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR TAKES A BLOW AS ECONOMIC DATA DISAPPOINTS


EUR/USD



Forex Technical Analysis: The previous week was controlled by the bulls as the euro strengthened on advances made in the Greek bailout conundrum. American Retail Sales and consumer confidence indicators failed to meet analysts’ expectations, dealing a blow to the US Dollar.

[Image: 3mJRt2W.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is supported by a bullish trend line but it’s currently testing 1.1450 resistance, with mixed Stochastic and Relative Strength Index (the oscillators are close to overbought but are not showing an extreme condition). A break of 1.1450 would bring in more buyers and generate another bullish week but a false move above the mentioned level would indicate a potential reversal and resumption of the long term downtrend making the bullish trend line the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment – released Tuesday – is the week’s first notable indicator, showing the opinion of about 275 German investors and analysts about the state of the economy. The same day the American Building Permits numbers come out, offering insights into the health of the U.S. construction sector.

Wednesday’s main event is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes which show some of the reasons which stood behind the Fed’s latest interest rate decision and often offer hints about future monetary policy. Thursday we will get insights into the French and German manufacturing sector as their respective Purchasing Managers’ Indexes are released while Friday’s headline will be the U.S. Consumer Price Index which in one of the broadest measures of inflation.


GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness was seen against the Pound as well and the pair had another bullish week, with price moving above resistance.

[Image: R2R4rbP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Early last week the bulls took price through 1.5550 and continued higher for the rest of the period. However during the second part of the week, the advance slowed and we even saw a bearish day. This fact combined with 1.5830 resistance and the overbought condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index shows that a deeper retracement has high chances of occurring. The first support is located at 1.5550 followed by the bullish trend line.

Fundamental Outlook

Wednesday the Bank of England will make public their votes on the interest rate but no change in the stance of the Monetary Policy Members is expected. Nonetheless the event is considered high-impact and should be watched carefully as it may trigger sharp moves.

The other important event of the week is the release of the British Retail Sales scheduled Thursday. This type of sales represents one of the biggest parts of economic activity and usually affects the Pound strongly. Friday BoE Governor Mark Carney will participate in a discussion at the ECB Forum titled “Inflation and Unemployment in Europe”; his speech is likely to affect the Pound as well so caution is recommended.
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