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GDMFX - Weekly News
#51
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: REVEALING THE REAL IMPACT OF THE ECB NEGATIVE RATE POLICY

EUR/USD


Forex Technical Analysis: Last week we witnessed a major development: the ECB introduced for the first time a negative deposit rate of -0.10% (banks that keep their money with the ECB will have to pay a fee) in an attempt to stimulate the banks to lend more money. The interest rate was also cut to 0.15% but these two actions had a mixed impact on the market.

[Image: image001-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The initial impact of ECB’s actions was bearish and price traveled fast to 1.3500 but within a few hours, all Euro losses were erased and the pair climbed back. From a strictly technical perspective, the support at 1.3585 is holding and a move higher is in order, but considering the unprecedented ECB decision, a move into 1.3480 becomes a distinct possibility. For the time being, increased caution is recommended until 1.3680 or 1.3585 is broken.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday French and German banks will be closed, celebrating Whit Monday and no major US data comes out so we are likely to experience a slow day, characterized by irregular volatility. The French Industrial Production numbers are released Tuesday morning while Wednesday will be another day without special announcements from either Europe or the United States. Thursday the ECB Monthly Bulletin is made public, showing the data which was taken into consideration when the rate decision was made and revealing the Bank’s outlook on future economic conditions. The same day the US Retail Sales numbers come out, potentially having a high impact on the US Dollar as they represent a major part of the entire US economy.
Friday the United States will release the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Sentiment. The former has inflationary implications as a higher price charged by producers will be eventually passed on to the consumer, while the latter is a leading indicator of consumer spending because a consumer who is confident about economic conditions is likely to spend more.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England decided to maintain the interest rate at 0.50%, a fact which didn’t come as a surprise and which didn’t create a lot of movement but overall we had a bullish week.

[Image: image003-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

At the moment the pair is re-testing from below the uptrend line which was previously broken. This is the first area of resistance and also a place where downwards movement can resume. We can also notice a downtrend line which creates a confluence zone of resistance and increases the chance of a bearish move this week. A bounce lower will encounter support at 1.6750, followed by the important zone at 1.6600.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the British Manufacturing Production comes out, tracking changes in the output produced by manufacturers and acting as a leading indicator of economic health; the same day an estimate of UK’s Gross Domestic Product is released, potentially affecting the Pound as the GDP is the main gauge of overall economic performance.
The other major British event of the week is the release Wednesday of the Claimant Count Change, an indicator which shows the change in the number of unemployed people who claim social help. A higher number is considered bearish for the Pound as it suggests a contracting economy. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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#52
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ECB AND BOE MONETARY POLICIES START TO DIVERGE. THE TWO CURRENCIES MOVE FURTHER APART

EUR/USD


Forex Technical Analysis: The Euro weakened throughout last week as the effects of the ECB decision to lower the interest rate and to introduce a negative deposit rate started to make their presence known. The pair broke 1.3585 support but the bears ran out of steam before touching 1.3480.

[Image: 2014.06.16-2014.06.22-ECB-and-BOE-moneta...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The first major barrier to the downside is represented by the support level at 1.3480 while to the north, resistance sits at 1.3585 followed by 1.3680. We anticipate a touch of support, but a clear break will probably occur only if the move is backed up by fundamental factors. The Relative Strength Index is approaching the 30 level which indicates an oversold market and price will have a tough time traveling south while this condition is present.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important event of the week is scheduled Tuesday in the form of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey focused on the current and future economic conditions as seen by German analysts and institutional investors. The same day the American Consumer Price Index, which is an important gauge of inflation, is announced.

Wednesday all eyes will be on the US interest rate, the FOMC Economic Projections and the FOMC Press Conference, a cluster of events that will most likely have a huge impact on the market. The Eurogroup Meetings start Thursday and same day the United States will announce the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of economic health focused on the manufacturing sector. Friday lacks major events except the ECOFIN Meetings which take place in Brussels.


GBP/USD

The Pound was heavily influenced by Mark Carney’s comments regarding a potential rate increase which may come sooner than anticipated. The impact was tremendous and the pair skyrocketed towards the peak at 1.6996.

[Image: 2014.06.16-2014.06.22-ECB-and-BOE-moneta...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair reached a critical point and at the moment is testing a multi-year high. A break of 1.6996 (1.7000) would open the door for a touch of 1.7040 (visible on a Weekly chart) but a move lower would create a Double Top on a Daily chart, a powerful bearish pattern. The bulls have regained almost total control of the pair but the Relative Strength Index is rapidly approaching an overbought state so we are likely to see price pause here or even retrace slightly lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected Tuesday by the release of the Consumer Price Index and Wednesday a breakdown of the latest Interest Rate votes will be made public. However, the most important Pound affecting event of the week is scheduled Thursday in the form of the UK Retail Sales which account for a major part of the entire economy and have a strong impact on the pair’s movement. As always, the US events ahead will directly affect the pair.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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#53
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: EURO LACKS DIRECTION. POUND REACHES MULTI-YEAR HIGH

EUR/USD


Forex Technical Analysis: The week that just ended was filled with mixed data releases and price action was extremely choppy, with a lot of sharp whipsaws as a result. The week was bullish nonetheless and price closed higher, above 1.3585.

[Image: image0013-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook


The long term uptrend has ended once the bullish trend line was broken last month but the bears have reached a barrier at 1.3500 (1.3480) and lately the pair lacks clear direction. The daily range is very low compared to how this pair usually moves and clear intraday trends are rarely seen, but considering the fact that downwards momentum has stopped, we anticipate a climb above1.3680.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead starts with German and French Manufacturing data releases scheduled Monday and continues Tuesday with the German Ifo Business Climate and American Consumer Confidence. These are important and leading indicators of economic health and consumer spending, with the potential to heavily influence their respective currencies.

Wednesday’s headline is the release of the US Durable Goods Orders; these goods are more expensive than normal ones because they have a life expectancy of at least three years and a higher number of orders suggest a thriving economy and increased production activity as manufacturers will work to fill the orders.

Thursday lacks major announcements and the last important event of the week is released Friday in the form of the German Consumer Price Index which accounts for a big part of the entire Euro Zone inflation and can have a strong impact on the Euro.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to strengthen last week, breaking a multi-year high; Fed’s comments regarding a low interest rate which will be maintained for a considerable amount of time weakened the US Dollar and generated another bullish week.

[Image: image0032-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The high established last week at 1.7063 will most likely act as resistance in the future and support is located at 1.6996, followed by the bullish trend line seen on the chart above. The Relative Strength Index on a Daily time frame has reached overbought territory and this increases the chance of a drop below the mentioned levels. Mark Carney will deliver two important speeches this week and the pair’s direction will be heavily influenced by them.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the Governor of the BOE, Mark Carney will speak in London at the Treasury Committee Hearing and Thursday he will make another public appearance by participating at a Press Conference regarding the BOE Financial Stability Report which is released at the same time. Both these events will probably have a huge impact on the pair and we are likely to see important developments this week.

Friday, United Kingdom’s Current Account will be released, showing the difference between imported and exported goods; a higher value shows increased demand for the currency and has the potential to take the pair higher. Throughout the week, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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#54
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE AND US NON-FARM PAYROLLS – INGREDIENTS FOR A BREAKOUT

EUR/USD


Forex Technical Analysis: The pair just finished a ranging week when price was confined between support and resistance and economic data didn’t have a strong impact; price movement was less than 80 pips for the entire week from high to low.

[Image: 2014.06.30-2014.07.06-ECB-Press-Conferen...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Last week price slowly crawled upwards and 1.3500 support wasn’t threatened. The bullish push lacks strength and it looks like it won’t be able to break 1.3680 resistance if it gets there so we anticipate a bounce lower. However, if the bulls find the strength to break the mentioned level, the next barrier is located at 1.3785 which will be a high probability turning-point, especially if the Relative Strength Index will indicate an overbought condition at the time. To the downside, 1.3500 remains the main level of interest.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday’s main event is the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which as we know is the main inflation gauge and shows the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The ECB aims to keep inflation just under 2.0% so the current value of 0.5% is considered too low and further decreases can severely weaken the Euro.

Tuesday the US Manufacturing PMI will be released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding economic health and business conditions in the Manufacturing sector. Wednesday Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC and as we know, speeches of heads of central banks can create huge volatility so caution is recommended if trading at the time.

Thursday will be the week’s most important day as the European Central Bank will announce the Interest Rate and Mario Draghi will hold a Press Conference explaining the reasons behind the Rate decision and will possibly offer hints about future monetary policy direction. The same day the US Non Farm Payrolls will be released, showing the change in the number of new jobs created, excluding the farming sector. It is considered the most comprehensive measure of employment in the United States and it is almost always a strong market mover.

Friday the United States celebrate Independence Day so US banks will be closed and no economic data will be released. This is also the reason why the Non Farm Payrolls are not announced Friday, but a day earlier.


GBP/USD

The Pound had a mixed week as BOE Governor Mark Carney adopted a hawkish stance during his speech and reversed a previous move below 1.7000.

[Image: 2014.06.30-2014.07.06-ECB-Press-Conferen...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is close to the multi-year high located at 1.7063 and the Relative Strength Index is hovering close to the 70 level which indicates an overbought condition of the market. On top of this, the bullish momentum seems dampened and a bearish retracement might be in order unless positive economic data is posted by the United Kingdom. The first major support is located at 1.6750 but such a move is probably too much to happen during a single week considering that lately the pair lacks strong movement. Resistance sits at 1.7063 and a break would renew the uptrend, bringing in more buyers.

Fundamental Outlook

Three indexes will be released this week by the United Kingdom: Tuesday we have the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, followed Wednesday by the Construction PMI and Thursday by the Services PMI. All three are leading indicators of economic health focused on their respective sectors and they usually have a hefty impact on the Pound, depending on the figures posted. The important US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement throughout the week.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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#55
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: A LACKLUSTER ECONOMIC SCENE TRANSLATES INTO RANGING PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD


Forex Technical Analysis: During the week that just ended ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time and the employment situation in the United States showed signs of improvement. As a result the pair moved lower for almost the entire week.

[Image: 2014.07.07-2014.07.13-A-lackluster-econo...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Last week we saw the bears in control of the pair and price bounced off 1.3680 resistance; the pair is starting to show stronger movement but it is still confined between the resistance we just mentioned and the support located at 1.3500. A break of either one of these two levels would most likely put an end to the ranging period and would generate an extended move in that direction. Although last week belonged to the bears, our bias is neutral until a breakout occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

Economic data is scarce this week and this might generate slow, ranging movement. Monday lacks important news releases while Tuesday the only notable event is the German Trade Balance which will show the difference between imported and exported goods; usually this indicator has a mild impact on the market.

Wednesday the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest meeting and more often than not, the US Dollar is highly affected because traders will gain insights into the reasons which stood behind the latest interest rate decision and the pace of the bond purchases. Hints about future monetary direction are usually revealed within the Meeting Minutes document.

Thursday the ECB will release their Monthly Bulletin, containing an economic outlook from the Bank’s viewpoint and more information about economic conditions. The French Industrial Production numbers come out the same day, but both events are considered to have just a medium impact on the Euro. The last day of the week doesn’t hold any special reasons for volatility as no major indicators are released.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing and Construction PMIs posted better than expected values last week, further strengthening the Pound and taking the pair to new multi-year highs. The US Non Farm Payrolls release created just a brief retracement lower.

[Image: 2014.07.07-2014.07.13-A-lackluster-econo...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Although the Pound is showing tremendous strength lately and the British economy continuously shows signs of improvement, we believe that a bearish pullback is in order. For a long time the pair has been moving upwards, without retracements and the Relative Strength Index is showing a clear overbought condition, moving well above the 70 level. The main levels to watch are 1.7180 as potential resistance and 1.7000 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the UK will announce the Manufacturing Production numbers which represent about 80% of the entire Industrial Production and have the potential to further strengthen or to weaken the Pound depending on the reading shown. The same day, an estimate of Great Britain’s Gross Domestic Product will be released.

Thursday will probably be the week’s most important day for the Pound as the Bank of England will announce their Interest Rate decision. Although no change is anticipated, the event will most likely generate strong and potentially irregular movement. As always, the American indicators released throughout the week will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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#56
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE AHEAD. DRAGHI OFFERS CLUES ABOUT MONETARY POLICY AND PRICE DIRECTION

EUR/USD


Forex Technical Analysis: The US Dollar benefited last week from a surprising growth of the American Gross Domestic Product, but later in the week almost all gains were erased by a disappointing reading of the NFP. As a result, the week closed near its opening price.

[Image: 2014.08.04-2014.08.10-ECB-Press-Conferen...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index is moving out of oversold territory and price quickly returned above the level at 1.3400 after piercing through it earlier in the week. An encounter with the resistance at 1.3480 is very likely to happen this week, given the strong bullish momentum generated by last week’s events, but a move above this level will only happen if it’s backed by fundamental events. Immediate support is still located at 1.3400, followed by 1.3295.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday lacks major events for both the Euro and the US Dollar but Tuesday the greenback will be affected by the release of the Non Manufacturing PMI, an index based on the opinions of purchasing managers outside the manufacturing sector.

Wednesday is again a slow day in terms of fundamental events and Thursday will be the most important day of the week for the Euro as the interest rate is announced (no change anticipated) and the ECB will hold a Press Conference, discussing the rate decision and offering hints about future monetary policy. ECB President Mario Draghi will also answer journalists’ questions during the conference and this is usually the time when the highest volatility is experienced. This will be the last high-impact event of the week as Friday no major indicators are released.


GBP/USD

For the entire week that just ended the bears were in control of the pair and important levels of support were broken. The Pound is starting to lose its appeal and the long term uptrend is severely weakened.

[Image: 2014.08.04-2014.08.10-ECB-Press-Conferen...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

We expect the bearish momentum to continue, but before that happens, we are likely to see bullish corrections, probably during the first part of the week. The Relative Strength Index is sitting below the 30 level, indicating an oversold market and favoring moves to the north; on top of that, for almost three weeks the pair has been traveling straight down and usually, this type of movement calls for a retracement to the upside. First resistance sits at 1.6920 while support is located at 1.6750.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom will release the Construction and Services PMIs Monday and Tuesday respectively, followed Wednesday by the Manufacturing Production numbers. Better numbers for all three indicators usually strengthen the Pound as they indicate a thriving economy and optimism regarding business conditions. The Bank of England will announce Thursday the interest rate decision but no change is anticipated from the current value of 0.50%. However, any hints about future rate increases will open the door for speculation and will probably create strong moves.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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#57
[SIZE="3"]FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR LOSES STEAM AS BULLISH RETRACEMENTS ARE IN ORDER

EUR/USD


During last week’s ECB Press Conference, President Mario Draghi mentioned that rates will remain low for an extended period of time in the Euro Zone and the Euro took a brief dive but later in the week, it erased all losses, resulting in a weekly candle which suggests indecision.

[Image: 2014.08.11-2014.08.17-US-Dollar-loses-st...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is printing lower lows on a Daily chart while the Relative Strength Index is making higher lows, a behavior which is known as regular bullish divergence and indicates that a move higher will follow. However, the pair is in a medium term downtrend and this makes moves to the downside very probable once the upside correction is complete. We anticipate a touch of 1.3480 – 1.3500 zone this week, followed by moves to the downside.

Fundamental Outlook

The first notable event of the week occurs Tuesday in the form of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey based on the opinion of German analysts and professional investors, focused on a 6-month economic outlook.

Wednesday the US Retail Sales come out, showing the change in sales made at retail level compared to last month’s value. Consumer spending accounts for the major part of overall economic activity in the United Sates (more than two thirds) and the retail sales make up for the biggest part of such spending, hence the importance of the indicator.

The German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is announced Thursday, showing the overall performance of the German economy which is the backbone of the Euro Zone and the last major event of the week will be the release of the American Producer Price Index scheduled Friday. The indicator tracks changes in price charged by producers for their goods and services and has inflationary implications because a higher producer price will be eventually passed on to the consumer.


GBP/USD

During the first 2 days of last week, the pair completed a bullish retracement and last 3 days belonged to the bears who managed to print a new low. UK’s interest rate remained unchanged, showing that economic recovery is not yet as strong as needed for a rate increase.

[Image: 2014.08.11-2014.08.17-US-Dollar-loses-st...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The uptrend line drawn from November 2013 is broken for some time now but the Relative Strength Index reached oversold territory for a second time in a short while and this week we anticipate bullish moves which will most likely clear this condition of the indicator. The first support is located at 1.6700 and so far price doesn’t show that it will reverse before touching it but be aware of any such signs during the early stages of the week. First resistance is located at 1.6920 and the uptrend line could also provide resistance if touched from below.

Fundamental Outlook

Wednesday will be the busiest day for the Pound as several events take place: the Claimant Count Change is released, showing the change in the number of unemployed people and BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a Press Conference, discussing the Inflation Report which is released the same day. The Report includes BOE’s view on inflation and economic expectations for the next 2 years and combined with the Press Conference, has the potential to be a major market mover for the Pound.

The economic week finishes Friday with the release of the Second Estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product which is a gauge of overall economic performance. As always, the US events will directly influence price movement throughout the week.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [URL="http://www.gdmfx.com"]best forex broker.[/URL][/SIZE]
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#58
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: EUROPEAN INFLATION TAKES CENTER STAGE AS THE EURO SLIDES LOWER

EUR/USD


Forex Technical Analysis: The US Dollar strengthened significantly last week as the FOMC Meeting Minutes showed optimism regarding the labor market and overall economic recovery. European data didn’t bring any positive surprises and this allowed the bears to take the pair lower.

[Image: 2014.08.25-2014.08.31-European-inflation...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The huge drop experienced last week clearly shows that strength and market control belong to the bears. The level at 1.3295 which was previously support was broken and retested successfully during the week and now the first level of importance to the south is located at 1.3200, followed by 1.3100. The downtrend is strong and new lows are a probable scenario but retracements to the upside are anticipated. These possible bullish corrections may find resistance at 1.3295 followed by 1.3330.

Fundamental Outlook

The week begins with an important German survey: the IFO Business Climate. The release is scheduled Monday and has a high importance due to the large sample of 7,000 businesses which are asked to rate the current level of economic conditions and to provide an outlook for the next 6 months. The US New Home Sales are released the same day, offering insights into the American housing market which is always regarded as an important matter.

Tuesday the focus remains on the Dollar as the US Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years) and the Consumer Confidence survey are released. Wednesday is a slow day in terms of economic news releases but Thursday the most important gauge of German inflation is released: the Consumer Price Index (Preliminary version). Germany’s economy accounts for a major part of the entire Euro Zone economy and its inflation has a hefty impact on the Euro’s performance, making this release a high impact one. The same day the United States will announce the Preliminary version of the Gross Domestic Product which is the main gauge of an economy’s performance and has a strong impact on the currency.

The economic week concludes Friday with the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is expected to move the market strongly because inflation has been sliding lower despite the ECB’s efforts to counter this fact. For the time being, Euro Zone inflation is far away from the ECB target and the lowest in almost 5 years.


GBP/USD

Last week we saw United Kingdom’s inflation slide lower, weakening the Pound while the Dollar strengthened, generating a bearish week. Bank of England’s Meeting Minutes showed that some members of the MPC feel there is need for a rate increase but this only generated a brief strengthening of the Pound.

[Image: 2014.08.25-2014.08.31-European-inflation...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The current bear run is in clear need of a “breather” as price has been traveling south for an extended period of time without any significant retracement. The Relative Strength Index is deep in oversold territory for the fourth time since the drop begun and this favors a correction to the upside. If this retracement occurs, the first resistance is located at the zone around 1.6700, a place where the pair could resume downwards motion. The support at 1.6550 is the first barrier in front of falling prices, followed by 1.6460.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow week ahead as UK Banks are closed Monday celebrating the Summer Bank Holiday and the only other notable events are the British Bankers’ Association Mortgage Approvals released Tuesday and the Nationwide House Price Index announced Friday. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
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#59
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: SLOW ECONOMIC SCENE TRANSLATES INTO RANGING PRICE ACTION.

EUR/USD


Forex Technical Analysis: The huge surprise offered by the ECB in the form of a new rate cut triggered a major selloff which was definitely last week’s central event and will probably influence this week’s price action as well. The weekly candle was strong bearish and a new yearly low was printed.

[Image: 2014.09.08-2014.09.14-Slow-economic-scen...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

As seen in the picture above, the Relative Strength Index on a Weekly chart shows that the pair is trading in oversold territory. Daily and four-hour charts show the same condition and this makes us believe that pullbacks are a high-probability scenario. If this comes true, the first level which could act as major resistance is located at 1.3100 since 1.3000 was a less important support before being broken. The next major support is located around 1.2750 but before (and if) it is touched, a retracement must occur.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead is slow in terms of economic releases and this makes us believe that we won’t see massive moves similar to last week’s price action. Monday’s only notable indicator is the German Trade Balance which shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods but usually has a mild impact on the Euro unless surprising numbers are posted. Tuesday we have another slow day when only the French Trade Balance can trigger some volatility but the indicator is known to be even less important than the German one.

Wednesday no major indicators are released and Thursday the German Final CPI comes out. The “Final” version is far less important than the “Preliminary” version but considering the lack of events this week, it could generate some volatility.

Friday will be the busiest day of the week as the US Retail Sales numbers are released. Sales made at a retail level represent the main part of consumer spending which in turn accounts for about two thirds of overall economic activity, thus the event is considered a huge market mover. Later in the day the University of Michigan will release a survey with regard to consumer sentiment which is a leading indicator of future consumer spending.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to weaken last week and the bears gained momentum on the back of US Dollar strength. Also, a poll showed increased support for Scottish independence and a possible separation from the United Kingdom.

[Image: 2014.09.08-2014.09.14-Slow-economic-scen...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price is nearing the key level at 1.6250 and if this level is touched, we anticipate a bounce higher. The bears had a tremendous run and clearly controlled the pair for an extended period of time; this control is likely to continue but profit taking combined with the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and the importance of the support ahead are likely to push the pair higher. The first potential resistance is located at 1.6460 but a break of support could bring in more sellers.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the British Manufacturing Production is released and BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak publicly in Liverpool. Better than expected manufacturing data and a hawkish Carney will probably set the stage for bullish moves. Later the same day, an estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released and can generate strong moves as this is the main gauge of an economy’s performance.

Wednesday
the Inflation Report Hearings take place. BOE Governor Mark Carney and other Monetary Policy Committee members will testify on inflation and economic outlook before the Treasury Committee of the Parliament. Strong moves are expected, depending on Carney’s attitude and answers, thus caution is recommended. As always, throughout the week, price action will also be influenced by the American releases.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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#60
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: A HISTORIC WEEK AHEAD – SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE TAKES CENTER STAGE

EUR/USD


Forex Technical Analysis: The fundamental scene was slow during the week that just ended and as a result, price action lacked the volatility seen throughout the last period. Also, after 8 bearish weeks, we saw the first victory of the bulls, although it was a minor one.

[Image: 2014.09.15-2014.09.21-A-historic-week-ah...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The week ended with price being higher than it opened but the buyers couldn’t make substantial advances and the Relative Strength Index on a Weekly chart is still trading in oversold territory. Last week’s candle shows bullish pressure (long lower wick) and these facts make us believe that we will see a climb into 1.3000 or even 1.3100. To the downside, 1.2750 is a key level which acted as strong support in the past and is likely to stop bearish movement if it will be touched.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is the week’s first notable event. This survey, scheduled Tuesday, shows the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts regarding the current economic situation and a 6-month outlook. The same day, the American Producer Price Index is announced, showing the change in prices charged by producers for their services and goods. The indicator has inflationary implications because a higher producer price will be eventually passed on to the consumer.

Wednesday the United States will take center stage as the FOMC will announce the Interest Rate, a Statement will be released and a Press Conference will take place. This cluster of events is likely to generate strong moves and high volatility so caution is recommended.

Thursday Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver a speech in Washington DC, via satellite but throughout the day, the world’s eyes will be focused on the Scottish Independence vote which will most likely generate irregular movement. Friday lacks major events and we are likely to have a slow, ranging day.


GBP/USD

Bearish momentum slowed down last week and the bulls finally managed to close the week higher than it begun. Price action was heavily influenced by the polls regarding the Scottish Independence, a matter that will be finally settled this week when the results of the referendum are released.

[Image: 2014.09.15-2014.09.21-A-historic-week-ah...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is currently testing the important level at 1.6250. This level acted as both support and resistance in the past and it proved to be well respected by price but the latest gap generated a clear move below it. However, it will be hard for the pair to move past this level for the second time without some sort of rejection, stall or re-test (if broken). A clear move above will make 1.6460 the next bullish target while a bounce lower will open the door for a move into 1.5900 with the first barrier being last week’s low.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event for the Pound will be the Scottish Independence vote scheduled Thursday. If the Scottish people will decide in favor of a separation from the United Kingdom, the Pound will suffer and we are likely to see huge downside movement but no matter the result, volatility will be high and caution is recommended.

Other important events are the British CPI scheduled for release Tuesday, the MPC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday), which will show a breakdown of the members’ votes regarding the interest rate and the British Retail Sales scheduled Thursday. Overall, we expect a week with strong movement which will be heavily influenced by the Referendum; as always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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