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GDMFX - Weekly News
#11
Pin Bar Strategy – Price action still rules the Market
It is believed that Japanese candlestick charts were developed by Munehisa Homna, a rice trader from Japan, during the 18th century. However, Steve Nison, who introduced them to the Western trading world, thinks that most likely Homna did not use candlestick charts and that they were later developed, during the late 1800s. Whether Homna used or not candlestick charts is of little importance to this strategy, because we are going to focus on a single candlestick – the Pin bar. This is an important and powerful reversal candlestick and if it appears at an important level of Support or Resistance, it can be traded with pretty much confidence. The Pin bar is a candle with a small body and a long wick; the best Pin bar is considered to be a candle where the wick is 2/3 of the whole candle, but other candles are accepted as Pin bars. Here is a picture of a Bearish Pin bar and a Bullish Pin bar:

[Image: Pin-bar-strategy-Picture-01.png]

The Pin bars shown in the picture above have a long wick (much longer than the body) and a small body, with price closing near the highest point of the candle (for the Bullish Pin bar) or near the lowest point of the candle (for a Bearish Pin bar). Now we will focus a little on the psychology behind the development of a Bullish Pin bar: assuming that we are talking about Daily candles, in the first part of the day, the sellers are in control of the market and are able to take price lower, but this strength fades away towards the later parts of the day and the buyers regain control of the market and start to push prices higher and eventually, even manage to close the day higher than it’s opening, resulting in a Pin bar on the Daily chart. This is indicative of the fact that sellers, even though they were strong in the first part of the day, lost the battle and now the buyers are clearly in control. Price will fluctuate during the day and we cannot divide the day in two distinct periods. It doesn’t matter when the buyers took back control of the market (that can even happen in the last hour of the day – although it is not usual). The opposite applies for a Bearish Pin bar.

Like we said, the Pin bar is a strong sign of reversal and we can trade it if several conditions are met. Remember, we are not just trading any Pin bar. When a proper Pin bar is formed we must carefully determine the importance of the level where it was formed. First we must draw Support and Resistance levels and then, if we see a Pin bar forming at one of our previously drawn levels, we must determine if it’s formed in the direction of the trend or counter-trend. Here is a picture to exemplify better:

[Image: Pin-bar-strategy-Picture-02.png]

Although not all of the Pin bars shown in the picture above are perfect, they clearly show rejection from a level of Resistance (or support turned resistance), mark the end of the retracement and are indicative of the continuation of the main trend. This kind of Pin Bar can be traded once the next candle opens, placing a Stop Loss a few pips above the highest point of the Pin for a short trade and a few pips below the lowest point of the Pin for a long trade. Take Profit order must be placed at the next Support or Resistance level. Here is the picture for Stop Loss placement:

[Image: Pin-bar-strategy-Picture-03.png]

Pin Bar strategy summary:
Entry rules:
1.Determine the trend.
2.Draw Support and Resistance levels.
3.Wait for the a retracement to begin (counter trend move).
4.If in a downtrend, during the retracement, a Pin Bar appears at a Resistance level, go short.
5.If in an uptrend, during the retracement, a Pin Bar appears at a Support level, go long.

Exit rules:
Any trade will be exited if the Stop Loss or Take Profit is hit.

Pin Bar strategy – advantages and disadvantages:

In this strategy we use the pin bar to determine the end of the retracement and the continuation of the main trend; we can say the Pin is a reversal candle for the retracement and a continuation candle for the main trend. It is sometimes difficult for a new trader to understand how one candle can be at the same time a continuation and a reversal sign. This, on top of the fact that the strategy relies heavily on S/R (which needs a trained eye to identify), makes it somewhat difficult for a novice and this constitutes a disadvantage. On the other hand, the Pin Bar strategy gives a high percentage of winning trades if it is used properly. There will be losing trades, but taking only trades with a good R:R ratio, increases the chances of a positive balance.
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#12
Forex Technical Analysis: Full week ahead – the Fundamental aspect prevails

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week’s control belonged to the buyers who scored a big victory by managing to take the pair back above 1.3200 and to push it in 1.3300 territory. The second part of the week was characterized by range-bound trading close to 1.3300 resistance.

[Image: 20130916-20130922-Full-week-ahead-the-Fu...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook
During the last two days of the week, the bears tried to drag price lower but failed and this resulted in sideways movement above and below 1.3300. This level is currently the one to watch because it may determine the next direction of the pair. At the moment price is printing indecision candles but these may be generated by buyers taking profits and closing out their transactions. Another Daily close above 1.3300 suggests that price can go higher, into the resistance located at the important 1.3400 level. The first support is located at 1.3200, followed by 1.3100.

Fundamental Outlook
The first major event of the week is the Monday release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is highly correlated with inflation and can strengthen the Euro if its value increases. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment comes out Tuesday and it’s a survey based on the opinions of about 275 German analysts and professional investors who are highly informed due to the nature of their jobs. The same day the US Consumer Price Index is released, representing the change in prices paid by consumers for their purchases; higher numbers for the CPI are usually beneficial for the US Dollar.

Wednesday’s most important event is the US Federal Funds Rate decision and FOMC Statement which are followed half an hour later by the FOMC Press Conference. This is likely to be the main market mover of the week and huge volatility is anticipated at the time.

Thursday the US Existing Home Sales numbers and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are announced. Both events can generate US Dollar strength if their values are better than anticipated. Friday is a quiet day, with no major events scheduled.


GBP/USD
Last week’s UK Claimant Count came out much better than anticipated and this, coupled with Mark Carney’s positive attitude towards an economic recovery, generated massive bullish pressure with the result being a touch of 1.5850 resistance.

[Image: 20130916-20130922-Full-week-ahead-the-Fu...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook
The current level of 1.5850 may push price lower especially considering the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index on a Daily chart and the fact that price didn’t make a proper retracement the entire month. However, the control belongs to the buyers and probably price will start to move higher after a retracement. The level of 1.5720 is the first major support and may reverse falling prices if it is touched.

Fundamental Outlook
Tuesday the United Kingdom announces the Consumer Price Index which shows the change in the price consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. Wednesday the Bank of England will provide details on the Official Bank Rate votes and the Asset Purchase Facility votes, offering insights into the stance of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee regarding future monetary direction.

The final UK event of the week comes out Thursday in the form of the Retail Sales which hold special importance because the retail sector accounts for the majority of economic activity in the United Kingdom.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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#13
Forex Technical Analysis: The race for the year’s high may begin.

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week’s main event was represented by the US FOMC Meetings which generated a massive rise for the pair on the back of US Dollar weakness. This weakness is attributed to the fact that the Fed decided not to taper the $85 billion stimulus.

[Image: 20130923-20130929-The-race-for-the-years...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook
The important level of 1.3400 was broken last week and now price is sitting on 1.3520 which was pierced but the pair soon returned to it. Although our bias is bullish, we must note the fact that the pair is showing rejection off this zone: a daily pin bar was created Thursday last week and the Relative Strength Index is in overbought territory on a Daily chart. Although these are all bearish factors, we consider the bulls will manage to retain control over the pair and push price higher. The next major resistance is located at 1.3710 which is also this year’s highest point.

Fundamental Outlook
The week starts strong with Monday’s release of the French and German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes abut more importantly, Mario Draghi will testify in Brussels about the state of the economy. His speech has the potential to be a real market mover and possibly the most important event of the upcoming week.

Tuesday’s most notable events are the German Ifo Business Climate and the US Consumer Confidence. Wednesday the US Durable Goods Orders are released. The indicator tracks the change in demand for goods with a life expectancy with more than three years and it’s a leading indicator of production because if more orders are placed, the producers will have to increase their activity to fill the orders. The US New Home Sales are announced the same day; higher numbers indicate a better economic situation because usually people don’t purchase new homes in times of economic instability or contraction.

Thursday the US Pending Home Sales are releases, showing the change in the number of houses that are about to be sold but await the final, closing transaction. Friday the ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Milan, but the event is likely to have a lower impact than his Monday speech.


GBP/USD
The pair experienced a substantial rally during the first part of the last week but Thursday the UK Retail Sales came our much worse than anticipated and the Pound gave back some of the previous gains.

[Image: 20130923-20130929-The-race-for-the-years...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook
The retracement lower begun once price hit 1.6170 resistance, with the Relative Strength Index showing overbought condition on a daily chart. Although we are biased towards the upside, we also acknowledge the fact that price had a strong bullish movement for the entire month so it may be time for a bigger retracement. A good place for price to resume the uptrend may be the minor level of 1.5960; if that level is broken, the next important support is located at 1.5850.

Fundamental Outlook
Tuesday the BBA Mortgage approvals are announced, offering an insight into UK’s housing market but the most important UK event of the week is the Current Account scheduled for release Thursday. The indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and better than expected numbers may strengthen the Pound, especially if the difference is substantial. United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product is released the same day and it has the potential to be the week’s most important event for the Pound because it is the most extensive measure of economic activity.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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#14
Forex Technical Analysis: Key resistance ahead. Is there any steam left?

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: The economic data released by the Euro Zone and the United States last week was mixed and this translated into ranging price action, with a lot of reversals and no clear control from either the buyers or the sellers.

[Image: 20130930-20131006-Key-resistance-ahead.-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook
For the entire week the bulls tried to break the resistance located at 1.3520 but didn’t manage to accomplish that and at the moment price is showing rejection signs off this level. We have an almost perfect double top at 1.3570 (which is a bearish pattern), the uptrend line drawn from the beginning of the month was broken and Friday’s candle has a long upper wick which is another sign that price may be headed south. The most important levels to watch are 1.3710 (the year’s high), the current level of 1.3520 and the support located at 1.3400.

Fundamental Outlook
Ahead of us is a week full of important events: Monday the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index is announced, followed by Tuesday’s US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. The most important Euro Zone event of the week is Wednesday’s Interest Rate decision accompanied by the ECB Press Conference where President Mario Draghi will speak and answer audience questions. Later that day, FED Chairman Ben Bernanke will also speak at a Conference titled “Community Banking in the 21st Century”, in St. Louis.

Thursday the US will release the usual Unemployment Claims and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI which is a leading indicator of economic health based on the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers. The most important US event of the week is scheduled Friday in the form of the US Non Farm Employment change. This is the most anticipated indicator related to the jobs situation and usually has a huge impact on the market.


GBP/USD
Throughout the last week the United Kingdom released mostly better than expected data and this contributed substantially to the bullish movement. Positive comments made Friday by Mark Carney further strengthened the Pound and pushed the pair higher.

[Image: 20130930-20131006-Key-resistance-ahead.-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook
The pair is approaching 1.6170 resistance again and the momentum belongs to the buyers. Although last week was definitely controlled by the bulls, this doesn’t mean that 1.6170 will be broken but a move above this level would expose the key resistance located at 1.6300. The first support is located at 1.5960, followed by the more important one at 1.5850.

Fundamental Outlook
The week is characterized by the release of three Purchasing Managers’ Indexes: Tuesday we have the Manufacturing PMI, followed Wednesday by the Construction PMI and Thursday by the Services PMI. Each survey is a leading indicator of health regarding its respective economic sector and better than expected values are usually beneficial to the Pound. The US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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#15


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#16


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#17
The Forex Market: The beginning of a reversal?

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Last week begun with the buyers being in control of the pair but Friday we saw some activity coming from the sellers’ side and price started to move towards the previous major support.

[Image: 20131007%E2%80%9320131013-The-beginning-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook
The latest move south nullified most of the Euro’s gains over the last week and generated a Pin bar on a weekly chart. Pin bars are candles which show rejection and a potential reversal but 1.3710 which is a very important level may act as a magnet and attract price close to it. To the down side the first major support is represented by 1.3520 and a move below it may generate additional bearish strength, opening the door for a touch of 1.3400.

Fundamental Outlook
The financial week starts Monday with a medium impact indicator: the Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence. The German Factory Orders come out Tuesday, offering insights into the German Production sector. The US Non Farm Employment change will possibly be released Tuesday as well but at the moment, the exact date and time are not known due to the US Government partial shutdown. We will keep you updated and announce when exact information is available.

Wednesday the German Industrial Production numbers are released and the always important FOMC Minutes which contain details regarding their latest Meeting and the reasons which influenced the members’ votes on the Federal Funds Rate.

Thursday the ECB Monthly Bulletin is released, containing similar information to the FOMC Minutes but regarding the ECB’s latest Interest Rate decision. The US Unemployment Claims are announced the same day and ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at the Economic Club of New York. As always, his speech may generate strong moves and we recommend caution if trading at the time. Friday’s most important events are the German Consumer Price Index and University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence.


GBP/USD
Last week the Pound experienced the strongest drop in a long while. The weakness was mostly generated by the Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI’s which failed to meet analysts’ expectations of increase.

[Image: 20131007%E2%80%9320131013-The-beginning-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook
The pair was overextended for some time and it looks like the move above 1.6170 was the final push before a trend reversal. At the moment the momentum favors the bears and the first support located at 1.5960 will probably be broken early in the week. The next target is the level located at 1.5850 but a move into that area depends on the fundamental events scheduled for the week.

Fundamental Outlook
Wednesday morning the United Kingdom will release the Manufacturing Production which has a high market impact due to the fact that Manufacturing makes up about 80% of the entire Industrial Production. Thursday the Official Bank Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility are released; these two are the most important UK events of the week and will most likely generate strong moves.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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#18
Slow Moving Averages Crossover Strategy
Remember the article about the Moving Averages and their use in trading? Now we are going to explain a pretty simple strategy that makes use of three Simple Moving Averages with different settings to identify high probability trades. Among all types of Moving Averages, the Simple MA is one of the slowest. We use a slow MA so we can avoid false signals; in fact, we will use three MAs: one with a period of 7, one with a period of 14 and the third with a 21 period. The first MA is the fastest of all the three and this one will give us the signal to trade when it goes through the 14 SMA and continues through the 21 period SMA. If it goes up through both the other two Moving Averages we will open a Buy trade on the currency pair and if the 7 period Moving Average will go down through both the other two, we will open a Sell trade. An important rule is that we have to wait for the close of the candle corresponding to the crossover before actually opening the trade. Here is an example:

[Image: Slow-Moving-Averages-Crossover-System-Picture-01.png]

On the chart you can see the three Simple Moving Averages and their respective color. The green MA is our signal line and at point “1” it crosses both the red and the blue MAs. Since in our example it crosses them downwards, we will place a Sell trade at the close of the candle corresponding to the crossover. Pretty simple, I hope. Now let’s talk about Stop Loss and Take Profit levels: our Stop Loss should be set a few pips behind the crossover point, or we should exit the trade manually if an opposite crossover occurs. This is valid for the Take Profit level as well: we should always exit a trade if an opposite crossover occurs, not at predefined levels. This will allow us to pocket huge profits relative to our stop loss. There is another important aspect of this strategy that must be discussed: never enter a trade if the 7 SMA does not have a steep angle, agreeing with our trade direction. So, if we are looking for a short trade, the 7 SMA must be pointing downwards at a steep angle at the moment of the crossover. Here is a zoomed in chart:

[Image: Slow-Moving-Averages-Crossover-System-Picture-02.png]

This rule will keep you out of some of the bad trades, because the strategy is prone to false signals during ranging markets. However, you will still get a lot of loses with the Slow Moving Average strategy, but once you are comfortable with it and start accumulating some experience, you will learn to identify the best trades.

Slow Moving Averages Crossover strategy – Advantages and disadvantages
Well, the weakest spot of this strategy is definitely the ranging market, when price has no volatility and no direction; the three Moving Averages will be tangled and a lot of crossovers will occur. But don’t let it discourage you; the losses will be very small because the SMAs will crossover in the opposite direction, telling you to exit the trade. This takes us to the advantage: the losses are small and the wins can be very big, which is an essential characteristic of a good strategy. Before you start using it you should back test it to get accustomed to its minor details and better learn to use it. A good advice is to use the higher time frames, a fact that will generate fewer signals, but this can be compensated by trading multiple currency pairs and taking only the best looking signals.
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#19
kalau tgk kebanyakkan pair kat tf besar semua nak jatuh
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#20
Forex Technical Analysis: A critical week for medium term trend

EUR/USD


Forex Technical Analysis: After a slow start, last week’s volatility picked up in its second part and the bears managed to take the pair lower on the back of US Dollar strength generated by speculation that US lawmakers may reach an agreement regarding the debt crisis.

[Image: 20131014-20131020-A-critical-week-for-me...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Last week’s most important level was 1.3520 which appeared to be broken to the down side initially, but price returned above it showing signs of rejection. At the moment price is trying to slide below it and the level will hold special importance for this week’s price action as well. A break lower would bring price into the support zone created between 1.3450 – 1.3560. If this zone is surpassed, the next major support is located at 1.3400. To the upside, 1.3650 represents the first important level but a move into that territory is less likely.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday the Eurogroup meetings take place in Brussels, attended by the Eurogroup President, Finance Ministers and the President of the ECB. A range of financial issues will be discussed, including support and stabilization mechanisms for the Euro. The same day, the Euro Zone Industrial Production values will be released. The event may bring the Euro higher if better than expected numbers are posted.

Tuesday’s most important event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is a well respected survey based on the opinions of German analysts and investors who are highly informed due to the nature of their jobs. The ECOFIN meetings take place the same day.

The only important economic indicator released Wednesday is the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index. Its importance comes from the fact that this indicator is used by the ECB as an inflation target.

The first important US event of the week is the release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which is scheduled for Thursday. The same day the change in US Unemployment Claims is announced. No major data releases are scheduled for Friday.


GBP/USD

Last Wednesday the pair experienced a major sell-off as the UK Manufacturing Production came out a lot worse than anticipated, severely weakening the Pound. The UK Interest Rate remained unchanged and the event didn’t create a lot of volatility.

[Image: 20131014-20131020-A-critical-week-for-me...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Last week’s movement brings the momentum in favor of the bears and lower prices are to be expected. After breaking 1.6000 to the down side, price re-rested it and bounced lower, confirming the fact that this level is now resistance. Our bias is bearish and we consider the next target to be 1.5850, followed by 1.5720. A move above 1.6000 is not out of the question but the probability is lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The UK Consumer Price Index comes out Tuesday, the same day as the Producer Price Index, two important economic indicators which have a lot of weight for the pair’s next direction. The Claimant Count Change is announced Wednesday, offering insights into UK’s jobs situation; the unemployment situation is closely related to consumer spending (people without jobs tend to spend less). UK’s Retail Sales numbers are released Thursday; this indicator is the primary gauge of consumer spending which represents the majority of overall economic activity.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
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