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GDMFX - Weekly News
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EURO-DOLLAR AT HISTORICAL LOWS. PRICE VOLATILITY STILL NOT AFFECTED BY END OF YEAR TURMOIL


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The Fed hiked the interest rate last week and hinted towards three more increases over the course the next year. The US Dollar strengthened considerably as a result and the pair broke 2015’s lowest price, located at 1.0462.

[Image: nuqeqt5.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Last time the pair traded at such low levels was in the year 2003 so we can say that last week the pair has reached a historical low at 1.0366. Now price is testing the previously broken level at 1.0460, which may turn into resistance and reject price lower; if this is the case, we expect to see a move below 1.0366, otherwise the next destination is 1.0525 zone. Overall the bias is bearish and the Dollar is in control but bullish pullbacks are not out of the question; also keep in mind that Christmas is approaching and this will probably have an impact on the market.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead is very slow in terms of economic releases, probably because the winter holidays are approaching. However, there are a few releases worth mentioning and keeping an eye on: Monday the German IFO Business Climate survey will show the opinions of about 7,000 businesses about economic conditions and outlook for the next 6 months. The large sample is what makes this survey important but the release doesn’t create strong movement all the time.

Wednesday we take a look at the U.S. house market with the release of the Existing Home Sales and Thursday will be the busiest day of the week: the Durable Goods Orders come out, as well as the Final Version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product. The GDP is an economy’s main gauge of overall performance but the Final version is the least important so we may see a mild impact. The last release of the week is the U.S. New Home Sales, scheduled Friday.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar was boosted by the Fed decision and of course, this was the highlight of last week. The Bank of England also announced their rate decision but no changes were made so the event didn’t generate strong movement.

[Image: MTpLWm4.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bullish trend line seen on the Daily chart above was broken last week, as well as the Moving Average and the level at 1.2480. These are all signs that price may continue lower, towards the bottom of the range, at 1.2090. However, this is a long distance that will not be traveled during the course of one week unless surprising developments take place. Our bias is bearish but a quick move above the three elements mentioned before (trend line, EMA and 1.2480) would probably start a ranging period.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound has a light economic calendar, with the only important releases being the Public Sector Net Borrowing, scheduled Wednesday, the Current Account (value difference between imported and exported goods), scheduled Friday and the Final GDP the same day. All these are considered medium-impact indicators but they can generate volatility if the actual number shows a big difference compared to the forecast.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: FINAL TRADING WEEK OF 2016


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week the pair’s movement was affected by end of year volatility and we expect this to continue throughout the week that just started. So far support is holding and rejecting price higher but price lacks the necessary steam to blow through resistance.

[Image: y3BJ4XY.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After starting last week on a bearish note and piercing through 1.0366 support, the pair retraced higher and is now testing 1.0460 resistance. Both oscillators are showing bullish divergence (price is making lower lows while the indicators are only showing a higher low) and this is a warning that further upside may follow. Keep in mind that it’s only a warning, not a clear signal and the pair is in a downtrend so we cannot exclude the possibility of a move below 1.0366 support. Probably price action will be choppy and affected by Christmas and the changing of the year.

Fundamental Outlook

This entire week will be affected by the Winter Holidays and by the changing of the year so the economic calendar is light and volatility will be affected. Monday German banks will be closed in observance of Boxing Day, Italian banks due to St. Stephen's Day and U.S. banks are also closed in celebration of Christmas Day.

Tuesday the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding current and future economic conditions. Wednesday the U.S. Pending Home Sales will affect the US Dollar, but the effect should be limited because this is considered an indicator with medium impact even under normal circumstances. Thursday and Friday we don’t have anything major on the economic calendar but the approaching of New Year’s Eve will trigger irregular movement and alternating periods of high and low volatility, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The pair completed another bearish week and moved clearly below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average but towards the end of the period, price slowed down, probably affected by the Winter Holidays.

[Image: BtxlPra.jpg]

Technical Outlook

This is the last week of the year, so volatility will be irregular and price action choppy. It’s very likely for the pair to remain between 1.2480 and 1.2090, with a bearish bias as long as price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The last few days have been bearish but candles are small and lack momentum, indicating that we may see a small push up this week. The environment is risky, thus caution is recommended. 

Fundamental Outlook

Monday and Tuesday UK banks will be closed in observance of Boxing Day and Christmas Day respectively, so price action will be heavily affected. The rest of the week lacks important releases and we expect irregular, possibly sideways movement.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THE NEW YEAR KICKS OFF WITH A BANG: FED MEETING MINUTES AND NON-FARM PAYROLLS


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: As expected, the last week of 2016 was governed by low liquidity and irregular price action. The quick climb is mostly attributed to these factors, not necessarily to fundamental or technical reasons. This type of behavior will likely extend to the week that just started.

[Image: iAoC15r.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair has reached the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and bounced lower, erasing some of the Euro gains. As mentioned above, the low liquidity characteristic for end of year has played an important role in the move and we cannot predict if it will continue through the 50 EMA or bounce lower through 1.0525 and 1.0460. We expect the first part of the week to be affected by irregular price action and the second part to be more robust.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday U.S. banks are closed, celebrating New Year’s Day, thus no major indicators will be released and volume will be low. Tuesday action picks up with the release of the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, an indicator that is considered the main gauge of inflation; the same day we take a look at the health of the U.S. Manufacturing sector with the release of the Manufacturing PMI survey.

Wednesday’s highlight is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, a document that offers insights into the reasons that determined the Fed latest rate hike and Thursday we take a first look at the U.S. jobs market with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. Probably the most important event of next week takes place Friday with the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, a report that shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month. This is widely considered the most important U.S. employment data and usually has a very strong impact in the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair remained below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average for the entire last week, with choppy movement and low liquidity; the last three days were the most active but a clear direction did not emerge.

[Image: xskdNC1.jpg]

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our view is bearish but we acknowledge the fact that price may move erratically, at least during the first part of the week, due to low liquidity. The levels to watch are 1.2480 (1.2500) as resistance and 1.2090 as support and we slightly favor a move lower after a bounce at resistance but only if the 50 EMA will remain above price. Caution is still recommended throughout the week.

Fundamental Outlook

UK banks will be closed Monday, celebrating New Year’s Day and action picks up Tuesday with the release of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), followed Wednesday by the Construction PMI and Thursday by the Services PMI. These are surveys of purchasing managers from the respective sectors, which act as leading indicators of economic health and optimism. The impact is usually moderate but differs from release to release. As always, the pair will be directly impacted by the U.S. indicators scheduled during the week.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: RESISTANCE TESTED. DOWNTREND IN TROUBLE?


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The week that just ended was governed by sharp reversals and overall choppy but volatile movement. The pair breached support and then jumped higher to touch the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, where it reversed again.

[Image: heKLMpA.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support zone around 1.0366 rejected price higher again but the pair seems to have found resistance at the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and is now trying to move below 1.0525. As long as price remains below the 50 EMA, our view is still bearish but we must note that 1.0366 is a strong support zone that couldn’t be broken on several attempts, so the downtrend may be coming to an end if the bears cannot break this key support soon.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead is slow in terms of economic announcements; the first notable release is scheduled Tuesday in the form of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, an indicator that shows the number of job openings, without taking into consideration the farming industry. It acts as a leading indicator of employment but its impact is often muted.

Wednesday is another slow day, without major data coming out, while Thursday the only notable indicator that can have an impact on the pair is the U.S. Unemployment Claims.

The busiest day of the week will be Friday, with three important releases: the U.S. Core Retail Sales (measures changes in the value of sales made through retail outlets, excluding automobiles), the Producer Price Index (shows changes in the price charged by manufacturers for their goods) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey that tries to gauge consumers’ confidence in current and future economic conditions and acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending. 


GBP/USD

Last week the pair showed bullish behavior but once the 50 days Exponential Moving Average was touched, the direction changed and most of the Pound gains were erased.

[Image: dx4gspB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bearish bounce seen at the 50 days EMA may be an indication that the bulls have ran out of steam and that an extended move lower may follow. Our view remains bearish as long as the pair is trading below 1.2480 resistance and below the EMA, and we anticipate a move closer to 1.2090 this week. A break above the two elements that were just mentioned, would open the door for a move into 1.2855 during the weeks to come.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the other two currencies, the Pound has a lackluster week ahead, with only two notable indicators, both released Wednesday. The first is the Manufacturing Production, a report that shows changes in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector and the second is the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate, which shows changes in the estimated total value of output generated by the economy during the previous 3 months. Other than these two indicators, the pair will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect and by the U.S. announcements.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: KEY POINTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD: WEF MEETINGS, ECB INTEREST RATE AND U.S. INFLATION


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The pair ended the week higher than it started it, mostly because the US Dollar was weakened by U.S. President-Elect Trump’s speech delivered last Wednesday. Throughout the week, price action was choppy and showed sharp reversals.

[Image: FRyGo34.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After a perfect touch of 1.0460 support, the pair rallied and broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Now it is testing 1.0650 resistance but as we can see from the chart above, the last three Daily candles show long wicks and this is a sign of indecision, which was mostly generated by the way that market participants interpreted President-Elect’s speech on Wednesday. If the US Dollar weakness will continue, we will probably see an extended move above 1.0650 and closer to 1.0800 zone, otherwise price will drop through the 50 EMA and into the support zone between 1.0525 and 1.0460. From a longer term perspective the pair is still in a downtrend, which was severely weakened by the multiple failed attempts to break the support zone around 1.0366.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday U.S. banks will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day and there are no major releases on the Euro side either, so we expect a slow, possibly ranging session. Tuesday the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meetings start in Davos, attended by personalities from the political and financial scene from around the globe (over 90 countries); the event may generate volatility on the market but of course the actual impact will depend on the matters discussed so we cannot anticipate it. The Meetings will continue throughout the entire week, thus caution is recommended.

Wednesday we take a look at U.S. inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index, an indicator that shows changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase, and Thursday the focus shifts towards the Euro for the ECB interest rate announcement and the usual press conference that follows. The rate is not expected to change but as always, this event should be treated with caution because volatility may surge, especially during the part of the press conference when ECB President Mario Draghi answers journalists’ questions. The trading week ends Friday without any major event, other than the WEF Meetings.


GBP/USD

Last week the pair established a new low at 1.2037 but retraced higher soon afterwards and price action continued to be choppy from then on. For now price is still in a range, without a clear bias.

[Image: 7bcU8ei.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support zone around 1.2090 was breached but not broken and direction is not clear, as indicated by the sideways movement and the long tails of the candles. However, price is making lower lows and lower highs and these are the characteristics of a downtrend but until 1.2090 is clearly broken, we will consider the pair in a range, capped by the mentioned support and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the upside. A clear break of either one of these elements will increase the chance of an extended move in that direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead holds three major releases for the Pound: Tuesday the CPI will offer insights into British inflation and Wednesday we take a look at the jobs situation in the U.K. with the release of the Claimant Count Change, an indicator that shows changes in the number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits. The last major release of the week is scheduled Friday in the form of the British Retail Sales, which account for a major part of the entire economic activity. U.K. representatives will attend the WEF Meetings throughout the week, thus caution is recommended.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: MARKETS RESPOND TO DONALD TRUMP’S FIRST WEEK AS U.S. PRESIDENT. BREXIT STILL A HOT TOPIC


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week Donald trump became the 45th President of the United States, assuming office on January 20, 2017. The pair had a bullish week overall, with US Dollar weakness and remained above the Daily Moving Average.

[Image: 8qkf3fW.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Even if the bears are making attempts to take the pair lower, the buyers quickly erase them and price ends up higher. This was the case last week when it appeared that the 50 days Exponential Moving Average will be broken to the downside but then price quickly reversed and started to move north, so the bias remains bullish and we expect to see a move close to the resistance around 1.0800. As an alternate scenario, a quick drop below the 50 days EMA would open the door for a touch of 1.0525 support and would make the short term bias bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday is a slow day, without major announcements but Tuesday action picks up and we take a look at the health of the German Manufacturing and Services sectors with the release of the respective PMIs. The same day the United Kingdom’s High Court will decide whether the government can initiate or not Article 50 without the approval of the parliament. This will surely affect the Euro as well, not only the Pound so we recommend caution.

Wednesday’s highlight will be the German IFO Business Climate, a survey that tries to gauge the opinions of about 7,000 businesses about economic conditions and a 6-month outlook, while Thursday’s only notable release is the U.S. New Home Sales. Action picks up Friday again with the release of the U.S. Advance Gross Domestic Product and Durable Goods Orders, both important indicators for the American economy and with the potential to strongly affect the US Dollar in the short to medium term.


GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened last Tuesday when UK Prime Minister Theresa May delivered a hawkish speech regarding the conditions of the Brexit but the pair remained in a range for the rest of the week.

[Image: Ac2x2se.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After a small dip below 1.2090 support, the pair climbed and is now trading very close to the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, with a bullish bias. For this week we expect a move into 1.2480 but from a longer term perspective the pair is still in a downtrend and the 50 EMA is not yet clearly broken, so another move below 1.2090 should not be counted out. The Brexit situation will also play a major role for this week’s price direction.

Fundamental Outlook

This week we have only two major events for the Pound: the first is the EU Membership Court Ruling, scheduled Tuesday, and has the potential to be a significant market mover, so extra caution should be used. The second event is the British Preliminary Gross Domestic Product, scheduled Thursday and showing the overall performance of UK’s economy. As always, the U.S. events released throughout the week will have a direct impact on the pair as well.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: DOLLAR IN THE SPOTLIGHT AGAIN: NON-FARM PAYROLLS AND FED MONETARY POLICY REVEAL


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week the bears managed to erase some of the advances made by the buyers and we saw a pullback to the previous support; however, the pair remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the short term bias is still bullish.

[Image: 4zaQEhe.jpg]

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair remains above 1.0650 support and above the 50 days EMA, the bulls remain in control of price dynamics, so we consider the current down move a retracement in a short term uptrend. This means that price is likely to rally again, aiming for 1.0800 resistance, followed by 1.0850. If these barriers cannot be surpassed this week, it would mean that the buyers’ strength is starting to fade and this will increase the chance of a reversal. A bearish break of the 50 EMA will make 1.0525 the target for the week.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts Monday with a first look at German inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index, followed Tuesday by the U.S. Consumer Confidence, a survey that acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending. Wednesday the Fed will announce the interest rate, which is not expected to change but the accompanying FOMC Statement will offer hints about future monetary policy and possibly about the next hike.

Thursday is a slow day for both Euro and US Dollar but Friday we will probably see the strongest movement due to the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. This is widely considered the most important jobs data for the U.S. economy and almost always volatility surges at release.


GBP/USD

Last week, UK’s High Court ruled that the Government must get Parliament’s approval before triggering Article 50, which would initiate the Brexit. The Pound got a boost from this decision and the pair climbed almost 300 pips during the week.

[Image: V6zzjkz.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and shows bullish momentum but the Stochastic has started to turn downwards in overbought territory, warning of a potential retracement. If price pulls back, we expect it to find support around 1.2420 and there, bullish price action is likely to resume, aiming for 1.2750 at the top of the range. As an alternate scenario, a drop below 1.2420 and below the 50 EMA would open the door for a move towards the bottom of the range (1.2090 zone).

Fundamental Outlook

The first notable release of the week is the Manufacturing PMI, scheduled Wednesday and followed Thursday by the Construction PMI. The same day the Bank of England will release their Inflation Report and Governor Carney will hold a press conference discussing the contents of said report; also, the Official Bank rate is announced, with no change expected from the current 0.25%. The week ends Friday with the Services PMI, a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sector, regarding economic and business conditions.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: PRESSURE MOUNTS, WITH PRICE TRAPPED BETWEEN SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE. BREAKOUTS IMMINENT


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: U.S. data released throughout last week was mostly bearish and the Fed kept the rate unchanged, without hinting about a March hike. Also the NFP report showed more jobs but with a lower hourly wage and this increased market confusion.

[Image: KkdGTcE.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is under pressure and struggling to decide the next direction; Thursday’s candle has a long upper wick while Friday’s candle has a long lower wick, both showing opposing signals and an unstable environment. The support at 1.0710 rejected price higher but 1.0800 resistance pushed it lower after a brief climb above, so these will be the levels to watch early in the week; a break of either one will likely generate an extended move in that direction. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is still angled upwards and below price, thus making the bias bullish but the up move is becoming more and more fragile.

Fundamental Outlook

The first two days of the week are quiet, without major economic announcements but Wednesday United Kingdom’s Parliament will vote to decide if they will confer power to the Prime Minister to trigger Article 50; this will likely affect the EUR/USD pair as well.

Thursday the U.S. Unemployment Claims are the only notable event and the week ends Friday with the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, a survey that tries to gauge the opinions of about 500 respondents regarding current and future economic conditions. The survey acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending, which in turn represents a major part of the entire economic activity.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar showed mixed behavior last week, first climbing to establish a new high and then dropping to the levels seen at the beginning of the week. Most of Pound’s losses occurred when the Bank of England released the Inflation Report and Governor Carney adopted a cautious stance.

[Image: lcXWSPV.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The move up seen during the last weeks seems to have hit a dead end as the bulls failed to decisively break the previous high and to touch 1.2750 resistance. Currently the bears are testing 1.2420 support, with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average in close vicinity; if this confluence zone will be broken early during the week, then the bears are likely to regain control of the pair but a failed attempt would make 1.2750 the target for the week.

Fundamental Outlook

The first highlight of the week ahead is the EU Membership Vote, scheduled Wednesday. The Parliament will decide if they give power to the Prime Minister to notify the European Union about UK’s intention to leave the union, by invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Volatility will probably increase and we recommend caution throughout the day, especially because the exact time of the vote is not yet known. Please note that the date may change as well.

Friday the British Manufacturing Production will show changes in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector and the same day NIESR will release an estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product. Overall we have a slow week ahead, with the EU Membership Vote being the key event.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: KEY POINTS OF THE WEEK AHEAD: U.S. INFLATION, RETAIL SALES, FED CHAIR TESTIFIES


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week’s price action confirmed 1.0800 as a very strong zone of resistance and the pair bounced lower once it reached it. Now price is trading below the 50 days EMA and the bears are in control of short term movement.

[Image: TA5JAB7.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bearish bounce at 1.0800 followed by the break of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average shows that the balance of power is shifting again and that we may enter an extended period of downside movement. However, Friday’s candle shows a relatively long wick and 1.0650 support is not decisively broken, so a move higher is not out of the question. If early in the week the pair moves above the 50 EMA, we expect to see another test of 1.0800 and on the other hand, if it remains below the line, the next likely destination is 1.0525 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

The first major release of the week ahead is the German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product, scheduled Tuesday. The German economy is an important pillar of the entire Eurozone and the GDP is the main gauge of performance, thus higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro. The same day Fed Chair Yellen will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee.

Wednesday is a strategic day for the US Dollar as we take a first look at the always-important U.S. Consumer Price Index (measure of inflation), but also the U.S. Retail Sales and later in the day Fed Chair Yellen will testify again, this time before the House Financial Services Committee.

Thursday’s highlights are the U.S. Building Permits (a higher number suggests increased activity in the construction sector) and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, a survey that acts as a leading indicator of economic health, focused on the Philadelphia district. Friday is a light day, without any major releases.


GBP/USD

The week that just ended was slow, with price action confined in a tight range above the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and above 1.2420 support. This tight squeeze may be followed by a strong breakout.

[Image: 1l1GvsZ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

For the entire last week price remained above 1.2420 and above the 50 days EMA, moving almost completely sideways and leaving no clear clues about future direction. From a longer term perspective the pair is in a channel, with 1.2750 as the upper barrier and 1.2090 as the lower one, so until a clear breakout is seen, price will bounce between boundaries. The mentioned breakout may occur this week and even if it doesn’t, we expect to see a lot more action than last week, mostly because lately price has been trading in a very tight range and this is usually followed by a strong move.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected by three major releases this week: Tuesday the Consumer Price Index comes out, followed Wednesday by the Claimant Count Change (indicator that shows how many people asked for unemployment related benefits) and Friday by the British Retail Sales. These are all major indicators that can have a strong effect on the Pound and the pair will also be affected by the U.S. events throughout the week.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EURO PUSHES HIGHER, POUND LACKS DETERMINATION, US DOLLAR SHOWS SIGNS OF A COMEBACK


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: After reaching the weekly target at 1.0525, the pair bounced higher immediately and tested resistance. Most of the Dollar weakness was triggered by a rather dovish stance adopted by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen. 

[Image: 2mXX3VP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After reaching the resistance zone between 1.0650 and 1.0680, which coincides with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair started to show signs of rejection and now bearish pressure is growing. If the pair cannot break 1.0680 early during the week, we expect the bears to take over and nullify the gains posted by the bulls last week; this will make 1.0525 the target for this week as well, possibly extending to 1.0460. To the upside, if 1.0680 is broken we expect to see a move into 1.0800.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday U.S. banks will be closed in celebration of Presidents’ Day, thus no major indicators will be released; the Euro also has a slow day, without notable announcements so we expect a ranging trading session.

Tuesday we take a look at the state of the German Manufacturing sector with the release of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index and Wednesday will probably be the most important day of the week for the US Dollar as the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest Meeting, which will probably offer hints about a future rate hike but also insights into the reasons of the latest rate vote.

Thursday’s only notable event is the release of the U.S. Unemployment Claims, an indicator that shows how many people asked for unemployment benefits during the previous week and the last release of the week is the U.S. New Home Sales, scheduled Friday.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar completed another lacklustre week, with price moving almost sideways. The bears made some timid advances, mostly on the back of disappointing UK economic data but support is still holding and neither side is in clear control.

[Image: qyhggkg.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, without indicating a clear direction and price is moving sideways, close to support. This has been the situation for a couple of weeks now and the probability of a strong breakout grows with each passing day but the direction is hard to anticipate. It looks like now the bears are trying to break 1.2420 but movement is incredibly choppy and for the time being we recommend caution with this pair.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound also has a lacklustre week ahead, with only one major release: the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product, scheduled Wednesday. The GDP is the primary measure of overall economic performance but the Second version is less important than the Preliminary so the impact may be mild; however, higher values usually strengthen the currency. As always, the U.S. events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair’s performance throughout the week.
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