Portal Komuniti Informasi Malaysia Terkini
BTCClicks.com Banner
Hello There, Guest! Register Login with Facebook

Thread Rating:
  • 1 Vote(s) - 5 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
GDMFX - Weekly News
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: BRUTAL POUND DROP AS BREXIT FEARS MATERIALIZE


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Surprisingly, last week’s events did not bring the pair out of its range. Support was breached but the bears didn’t follow through and a worse than expected NFP brought the pair back up, close to the opening price of the week.

[Image: 1k1BZGj.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.1150 appeared broken but the pair decided to do a quick turn and erased the drop. Indecision continues to rule over this pair and now the 50 days Exponential Moving Average is the first point of interest: a move above it will take price into 1.1280 and possibly 1.1340 but a bounce here will mean that 1.1150 will be broken soon. Keep in mind that the moving average is flat and price bounces between support and resistance; a strong breakout is expected.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday the banks in the United States will be closed, in observance of Columbus Day and no major indicators will be released for neither one of the currencies in the pair. Tuesday action picks up with the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey but other than that we don’t have anything important on the calendar.

Wednesday the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, containing details about the reasons that determined the rate vote, and more importantly, the document can contain hints about the next rate hike. If this is the case, then the US Dollar will probably have a strong reaction.

Thursday we don’t have anything important on the calendar and the trading week ends Friday with the release of the U.S. Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. Both are considered high-impact indicators and can strengthen the greenback in case of higher than anticipated numbers.


GBP/USD

The Pound experienced a so called “flash crash” late last week and the pair posted a tremendous drop. Speculation attributes the drop to fears about a hard Brexit early next year but the exact reason is not clearly known.

[Image: hYP7yc1.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is currently “high risk” and extreme caution should be used if trading it. Although most of the losses were erased, the possibility of another drop is high as the Pound is vulnerable and prone to sudden moves. Potential resistance sits around 1.2800 but the technical aspect will be overshadowed this week by unscheduled speeches (if any) of British politicians and/or representatives of the Bank of England. 

Fundamental Outlook

The entire week is slow for the Pound as far as economic releases are concerned. However, we expect strong movement given last week’s tremendous drop and increased volatility.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
Thanks given by:
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EURO WEAKENS, FOCUS SHIFTS ON ECB INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Finally the pair started to pick up some speed last week and now the bears are in control. The US Dollar strength was partly due to the FOMC hinting towards a rate hike later this year and partly due to better than expected U.S. economic data.

[Image: 4UZaROq.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price moved below the previous support at 1.1060 and then re-tested it, turning it into resistance so we expect this level to reject future moves up. The bias is bearish for the week, with the first important target being the support at 1.0910; there’s a minor hurdle at 1.0955 and we expect this to be broken during the early days of the week. The oscillators are approaching oversold and this increases the chance of a bounce into the previously mentioned resistance but once this potential retracement is complete, downside movement is likely to resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The week opens with a light calendar and action picks up Tuesday when the United States will release their Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation. Current levels are considered too low, so a higher than anticipated value will likely strengthen the US Dollar.

Wednesday the U.S. Building Permits come out, offering insights into construction sector activity (a permit is the first step required before starting to build). Thursday the European Central Bank takes center stage with the Interest Rate announcement and the press conference that follows shortly. No change is expected for the rate but almost always this event generates strong and often irregular movement. The same day the EU Economic Summit begins and will continue Friday, when no other major indicators are released.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to weaken against the US Dollar last week and is currently surrounded by a negative sentiment which is likely to bring further downside movement.

[Image: zecRr7S.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair created a new intermediate low at 1.2090 and then started to move almost sideways. Resistance is located at 1.2480 but we don’t expect the pair to move that high and instead, we anticipate a break of 1.2090 support. The Relative Strength Index is deep in oversold territory and this may trigger some moves north but overall the pair is still on shaky ground, prone to sudden moves.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the first important British event of the week comes out: the Consumer Price Index, a gauge of inflation that shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the products they purchase. Higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound.

Wednesday we take a look at UK’s unemployment situation with the release of the Claimant Count Change (shows changes in the number of people who asked for unemployment related social help) and the last important release of the week is the British Retail Sales, scheduled Thursday. UK representatives will participate in the EU Economic Summit and this may generate volatility on the Pound.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
Thanks given by:
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EURO HEADING FOR KEY SUPPORT, BOE GOVERNOR CARNEY TO TESTIFY ON BREXIT CONSEQUENCES


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week belonged to the bears, with the last 2 days being the most active. Euro weakness was mainly generated by the ECB Meeting and Draghi’s press conference.

[Image: etOsQTT.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The June low created by the Brexit vote was taken out last Friday and it looks like the pair’s next destination is the key support zone around 1.0800. The Relative Strength Index is just entering oversold and the Stochastic is already there so we expect a bullish retracement to come when the 1.0800 mark is touched or even sooner. The previous support levels (1.0955 and 1.0910) may turn into resistance and reject a possible move up; if these levels become resistance, the chances of a move into 1.0800 will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The first day of the week ahead is focused on Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI but these are medium impact indicators so we don’t expect strong movement. Action picks up Tuesday with the release of the German IFO Business Climate, a well respected survey due to its large sample of about 7,000 businesses. On the US Dollar side we have the Consumer Confidence, another survey focused on the opinions of respondents regarding overall economic conditions.

The next major release comes Thursday in the form of the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, followed the same day by the U.S. Pending Home Sales and the week ends Friday with the release of the German Consumer Price Index and the Advance version of the U.S. GDP. The last two events of the week may have the strongest impact because one measures inflation and the other is the main gauge of an economy’s performance, both key elements for a currency’s strength.


GBP/USD

The Pound moved in a range last week, with some strength generated by better than expected inflation data; however, most of the gains were erased later in the week.

[Image: RPwjFrw.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is under bearish pressure and we expect to see a move closer to 1.2090 this week. It must be noted that the Relative Strength Index is still in oversold territory and the bears had difficulties breaking 1.2090 in the past. This may push price higher once (and if) the mentioned support is touched again but the pair is in a downtrend so our overall bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the Pound is likely to show increased volatility and irregular movement because Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify on the consequences of the Brexit vote before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. We recommend extreme caution at the time.

The other important event of the week is the release of the British Gross Domestic Product, scheduled Thursday. Although we only have 2 major events for the Pound this week, both of them have the potential to generate strong movement; as always, the U.S. releases will directly impact the pair’s direction.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
Thanks given by:
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR STEALS THE SPOTLIGHT: RATE ANNOUNCEMENT AND NFP RELEASE


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The US Dollar weakened last week, with Friday being the most active day. The decline was generated by FBI’s decision to reopen Clinton’s email case; depending on new developments on that matter, we may see further greenback weakness.

[Image: cCpWkK0.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price bounced at 1.0850 and moved past 1.0955, with the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic exiting oversold, going up. We expect the push up to extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the pair is still in a downtrend (although fragile) so it’s very likely to see a bearish move when that zone is reached. A break of the 50 EMA will make 1.1150 the first bullish target.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead starts Monday with the release of the German Retail Sales and Eurozone Estimate Consumer Price Index but these are likely to generate just a medium impact on the Euro. Tuesday French and Italian banks are closed in observance of All Saints Day, so we expect low volatility coming from the Euro’s side and on the U.S. side the Manufacturing PMI is the only notable release.

Wednesday is a huge day for the US Dollar because the Fed will announce the interest rate and will release a FOMC Statement that will explain some of the reasons that determined the rate decision. No change is expected yet, but the event usually generates strong movement.

The final major release of the week is scheduled Friday in the form of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, a report that is widely considered the most important jobs data in the United States. Since this week we have the rate announcement and the NFP (usually these are not released the same week), we expect strong movement on all US Dollar pairs.


GBP/USD

The pair moved sideways for almost the entire last week and all directional impulses were quickly reversed. The Pound benefited from a better than expected GDP value but this strengthened it just momentarily.

[Image: 6bl2ogo.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bears tried twice last week to break the support at 1.2090 but failed and price stalled. If the pair moves into this support for a third time, it will either break it or it will shoot up. If 1.2090 is broken, we don’t have any immediate support below it, while to the upside we have minor resistance at 1.2325. This level will be the first bullish target if 1.2090 holds. Our bias is neutral, anticipating a strong breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

The first major release of the week is the Manufacturing PMI, scheduled Tuesday, followed Wednesday by the Construction PMI and Thursday by the Services PMI. These are leading indicators of economic health, focused on business conditions and derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sector. The impact is often mild but usually, higher numbers strengthen the Pound.

Thursday the Bank of England will also release their Inflation Report, containing inflation and economic expectations for the next 2 years and the same day the interest rate is made public, as well as a Monetary Policy Summary that offers insights into the reasons that determined the rate vote. As always, the U.S. events released throughout the week will have a direct and potentially strong impact on the pair.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
Thanks given by:
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: CLASH OF TITANS


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The pair completed a bullish week and moved above the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged and the NFP report somewhat disappointed, contributing to the strong move up.

[Image: XC2tkKt.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is now trading above the 50 days EMA, placing the pair in a bullish environment from a short to medium term perspective. However, a clear trend is not in place, the oscillators are approaching overbought and the resistance at 1.1150 sits in front of rising price; all this may suggest that we will see a bounce lower once 1.1150 is touched. If this occurs, price will likely retrace to the 50 EMA but a clean break of 1.1150 will make 1.1250 the first potential target.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead starts Monday with the Eurogroup Meetings and continues Tuesday with the ECOFIN Meetings. However, the more important event is the U.S. Presidential Election that also takes place Tuesday and will probably overshadow the Meetings. The US Dollar may react strongly to the result of the election so we recommend caution throughout the day.

Wednesday and Thursday have a lackluster economic calendar, while Friday’s only notable release is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, a survey that tries to gauge the confidence of consumers in overall economic conditions. As you can see, we have a slow week ahead, but this doesn’t mean that price movement will be slow, especially considering the huge event that is the U.S. Presidential Election.


GBP/USD

The Pound won last week’s race against the US Dollar and we saw a move outside the horizontal channel. This week’s price action will probably reveal if the break is true or just a fake move above resistance.

[Image: TZXNMQq.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved above 1.2480, which represents the upper part of the horizontal channel but now it’s sitting right on the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. The break of 1.2480 is not yet clear (the level was not re-tested after the move above it) and the moving average is likely to offer resistance so we may very well see a bounce lower. If price moves above the 50 days EMA, the chances of a move into 1.2800 zone will increase, while a move back inside the channel would mean that the ranging period is still not over.

Fundamental Outlook

The busiest day of the week for the Pound will be Tuesday when the Manufacturing Production numbers come out, as well as an estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product, provided by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

The first indicator tracks changes in the total value of products generated by the manufacturing sector, and the Gross Domestic Product is an economy’s main gauge of performance, so higher numbers usually bring a stronger currency (however, keep in mind this is only an estimate). The U.S. Election will have a direct and probably strong impact on the pair’s direction.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
Thanks given by:
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: SPEECHES, TESTIMONIES AND INFLATION – PREPARING FOR ANOTHER BUSY WEEK


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Election week is over and United States has a new President. The US Dollar received the news well, strengthening against most of its counterparts and as a result we saw the pair drop through several support levels.

[Image: 6tddgj3.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After a big spike that took price into 1.1300 territory, the pair reversed as the US Dollar was fueled by the Presidential Election, dropping through multiple barriers until finally stopping near 1.0850. Early this week we will see if the pair stopped because the markets closed on Friday or because price is exhausted. The distance traveled was more than 450 pips and this calls for a retracement to the upside; this potential pullback has increased chances of happening after 1.0800 support is hit but 1.0850 is not clearly broken. If the US Dollar doesn’t break its current support (1.0850), we may see a bounce that will take price closer to 1.0950 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

ECB President Mario Draghi opens the week with a speech delivered Monday in Rome. As usual, caution should be used during his speeches because the Euro may have a strong reaction. Tuesday we take a first look at German Gross Domestic Product with the release of the Preliminary version of this indicator and on the US Dollar side we have the always important Retail Sales. This type of sales represents the biggest chunk of consumer spending, which in turn accounts for the main part of overall economic activity, thus higher readings for the retail sales usually strengthen the greenback.

Wednesday the spotlight remains on the US Dollar with the release of the Producer Price Index, an indicator that tracks changes in the price charged by producers for their goods. It has inflationary implications because if the producer charges more, the client will eventually pay a higher price. Currently, higher numbers are beneficial because inflation is considered too low.

Thursday we take a look at U.S. inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index and Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee; the topic is economic outlook so we expect high volatility during and after the event. The week finishes Friday with another speech delivered by the ECB President, this time at the Euro Finance Week, in Frankfurt.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar couldn’t win the battle against the Pound last week and instead we saw a move above resistance. We have an important week ahead because we will find out if the strength showed by the greenback against other currencies will also extend to this pair.

[Image: CbgQU2m.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The previous resistance at 1.2480 is now clearly broken but the 50 days Exponential Moving Average may still reject price lower even if last week closed above it. The candle that moved above the EMA shows signs of rejection and the break is not decisive. It looks like bearish pressure is mounting, so if price returns below the Moving Average early this week, we expect it to drop below 1.2480 but if the Pound continues to strengthen, we will most likely see a move into 1.2800 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

The first major release of the week is the British Consumer Price Index, scheduled Tuesday and followed half an hour later by the Inflation Report Hearings, during which BoE Governor Carney will testify on economic outlook and inflation before the Treasury Committee of the Parliament. Both these events usually have a high impact on the Pound so we can expect increased volatility.

Wednesday the Claimant Count Change will offer insights into the British unemployment situation and the final event of the week is the release of United Kingdom’s Retail Sales numbers, scheduled Thursday. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct and possibly strong impact on the pair’s direction.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
Thanks given by:
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: DOLLAR SMASHES THROUGH SUPPORT, THANKSGIVING DAY IN SIGHT


EUR/USD


For the entire last week the US Dollar dominated and the pair dropped below 1.0600. Since the U.S. Presidential Election result was known, the pair didn’t have any bullish days and the sellers remained in total control.

[Image: pF5ouYD.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The huge drop that started with the U.S. Presidential Election will probably continue in the long term but for the time being, the pair is oversold as indicated by the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic. This means that a retracement has increased chances of occurring and it will be signaled by the oscillators exiting oversold territory. The first possible resistance is located at 1.0710 but the level was last touched a long time ago so a more important level may be 1.0850 because this is the latest level where price showed a strong reaction. To the downside, 1.0525 is the first support.

Fundamental Outlook

The first major event of the week is scheduled Monday: the testimony of ECB President Mario Draghi before the European Parliament, In Strasbourg. The topic is the European Central Bank's Annual Report and the financial markets are likely to be influenced by Draghi’s attitude.

Tuesday we have a thin economic calendar, with the U.S. Existing Home Sales being the only notable release. The indicator offers insights into the U.S. housing market, with higher numbers being beneficial for the US Dollar. Wednesday the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest Meeting; this document offers insights into the reasons that determined the latest rate decision but can also reveal hints about a possible December rate hike. If this is the case, the US Dollar will be strongly affected.

Thursday U.S. banks will be closed, celebrating Thanksgiving Day and no indicators will be released. The holiday will probably affect volatility so it’s very likely to have a choppy trading session. On the Euro side the only notable release is the German IFO Business Climate, a survey of about 7,000 businesses, focused on economic conditions and expectations for the next 6 months. The week ends with a slow day, without major economic releases.


GBP/USD

British economic data released last week was mixed, with disappointing inflation numbers but better than expected Retail Sales. However, the pair didn’t seem affected much by the economic numbers and the sellers moved price lower.

[Image: 8pHhrXC.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After a failed attempt to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the upside, the pair reversed and moved below 1.2480. This makes 1.2090 the first notable support and puts short term control in the hands of the bears. As long as the pair is trading below the 50 EMA and below 1.2480, we favor the short side, aiming for 1.2090, but a move above the mentioned resistance zone would invalidate such a scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a lackluster week ahead, with only a few notable indicators: Tuesday the Public Sector Net Borrowing numbers are released, showing the difference between spending and income for government and public corporations. Friday the Second Estimate version of the British Gross Domestic Product is released, but although the GDP is considered a high impact indicator, this version is less important than the Preliminary, which was already released. Nonetheless, higher values show a stronger economy and possibly a stronger currency.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
Thanks given by:
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: BUCKLE UP, IT’S NFP WEEK AGAIN!


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: During last week the pair reached the support at 1.0525, with the most active day being Wednesday when the FOMC Minutes hinted that a rate hike may come relatively soon. Support is still holding but control belongs to the bears.

[Image: vF3VU2E.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair has reached a very important support at 1.0525, with the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic both in oversold territory. Also, price traveled a long distance without a proper retracement and all this may indicate that a bullish pullback is needed before bearish movement can resume. We must keep in mind that the pair is in a downtrend so we cannot exclude the possibility of a quick break of 1.0525; if this is the case, the next barrier and target will be 1.0462, which is the lowest point reached since 2015.

Fundamental Outlook

The week opens Monday with an important testimony delivered by ECB President Draghi before the European Parliament's Economic Committee, on the topic of Brexit consequences and economic outlook from ECB’s perspective. High volatility may be experienced during the event, thus caution should be used.

Tuesday we have two important U.S. releases: the first is the Preliminary version of the Gross Domestic Product, followed by the Consumer Confidence survey. The GDP is an economy’s main gauge of performance and consumer confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, so both of them can strengthen the greenback in case higher numbers are posted.

Wednesday we take a first look at Eurozone inflation with the release of the Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index but also at United States jobs data, with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. Thursday’s headline is the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers regarding business and economic conditions in the manufacturing sector and the week ends Friday with the most important U.S. jobs data: the Non-Farm Payrolls. The indicator is known for its high impact so we expect strong moves and we recommend caution.


GBP/USD

Early last week we saw a strong move up but after that, the pair started to move sideways and remained in a tight range, just below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average.

[Image: wwUbjwH.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Usually after a period of tight sideways movement, the pair tends to shoot strongly to one side or the other. We have two important barriers: on one hand there’s the 50 days EMA combined with 1.2480 as resistance and on the other hand we have the bullish trend line seen on the chart above as support. A clear break of either resistance or support will probably trigger an extended move in that direction but until that happens, we can expect the pair to continue to move in a range.

Fundamental Outlook

Wednesday the Bank of England will release their Financial Stability Report, which is an assessment of current economic conditions as well as risks to financial stability and can offer hints about future monetary policy. The impact is different with each release but can generate strong movement for Pound pairs.

Thursday the Manufacturing PMI is released, followed Friday by the Construction PMI. These are leading indicators of economic health, derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sectors but usually the impact is strong only if the actual reading shows a big difference compared to analysts’ forecast. As always the U.S. events will have a direct and strong impact on the pair.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
Thanks given by:
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: DOLLAR WEAKENED BY DISAPPOINTING NFP, EURO IN LIMBO AHEAD OF ECB RATE ANNOUNCEMENT


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: For the entire last week the pair showed choppy movement, with sudden changes of direction. The week ended higher than it started but the downtrend is still intact.

[Image: wOSkDvK.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After the touch of 1.0525 support the sellers lost their steam and the pair started to move north but it’s clear that overall there’s still bearish pressure. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index have exited oversold territory and are moving upwards, supporting an extended move that will encounter the first resistance at 1.0710. If that level is surpassed, the next target may be 1.0800 zone and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. As long as these resistances are holding, our view is bearish and we expect a move lower after a touch of one of the mentioned zones.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow week ahead compared to the previous, with only a few important releases: Monday the Eurogroup Meetings take place, attended by personalities from the EU member states. Tuesday the ECOFIN Meetings, attended by Finance Ministers from the EU member states will be the main event but both assemblies may go mostly unnoticed by the market.

Wednesday is a lackluster day and Thursday action picks up with the ECB Interest Rate announcement, which is followed shortly by the usual Press Conference during which ECB President Mario Draghi delivers a prepared statement and answers journalists’ questions. The press conference is almost always a reason for increased volatility and irregular movement.

Friday the US Dollar takes center stage with the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, a survey that acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending.


GBP/USD

Last week was an important one for the Pound as it finally managed to climb above 1.2480 resistance and above the Moving Average. This marks the end of the ranging period and possibly calls for further upside.

[Image: BQehL8o.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The 50 days Exponential Moving Average was surpassed last week for the first time in a long while (it was breached before but price returned immediately below it) and now price is trading above previous resistance (1.2480). All this makes us anticipate a move into 1.2855 zone and a continuation of the breakout but we don’t exclude a drop to test the recently broken level as well as the 50 EMA. If these barriers reject price, this will solidify the medium term control of the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar or the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound has a lackluster week ahead, with only two notable releases: Monday we have the Services PMI, a survey of purchasing managers regarding business and economic conditions in the service sector and Wednesday the Manufacturing Production comes out. The latter shows changes in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing industry and can have a positive impact on the Pound if it posts higher numbers because this would suggest increased economic activity.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
Thanks given by:
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EURO APPROACHES HISTORICAL LEVELS. POSSIBLE FED RATE HIKE ON THE HORIZON


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week we experienced interesting price behavior, with the pair climbing fast but dropping the entire distance back to where it started by the end of the week. Most of the Euro weakness was generated by Mario Draghi’s press conference and his comments which were perceived as dovish.

[Image: F2VwZ8v.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.0850 and the 50 days Exponential Moving Average were breached last week but soon after, price returned below these technical levels and now the pair is testing the key support at 1.0525. If 1.0525 is broken, the next target is 1.0460, a level that was last tested in 2015 and before that, in 2003 so we can say that the bears will score a major victory if they manage to break the level. The latest impulse is bearish but last week’s price action was hectic so a clear prediction is hard to make. If 1.0460 is touched, we expect small bounces to occur but the Fed rate decision will play a major role for the next direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey released Tuesday is the only major indicator of the first 2 days of the week but Wednesday action intensifies with the release of the U.S. Retail Sales and more importantly, the FOMC will announce their decision regarding the interest rate. Some analysts expect a rate increase but even if this is not the case, the event will surely create strong movement. Half an hour after the rate is announced, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will hold a press conference, discussing the rate vote and answering journalists’ questions.

Thursday we take a look at U.S. inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is another reason for increased volatility and the week ends Friday with the Final version of the Eurozone CPI. Although this is the least important out of the three versions, the Euro is likely to respond strongly to the data. The U.S. Building Permits are the last indicator of the week, released Friday as well.


GBP/USD

Last week the pair reached a high at 1.2775 then dropped 200 pips lower to end the trading week at 1.2575. The 50 days Exponential Moving Average is not broken but the bears control short term action.

[Image: ybuur4L.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair’s behavior last week was bearish but the key support represented by the 50 days EMA and the level at 1.2480 wasn’t broken. A bullish trend line also supports price so we have three major elements that stand in front of falling price and the possibility of a push up shouldn’t be overlooked. On the other hand, a break of this confluence zone will show that the selling pressure is high and would make our bias for the week bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The first Pound-affecting release of the week is scheduled Tuesday in the form of the British Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation. The indicator usually has a high impact on the Pound’s direction, with higher numbers strengthening it. Wednesday’s highlight is the release of the Claimant Count Change, an indicator which shows changes in the number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits during the previous month.

Thursday we take a look at British Retail Sales numbers and the Bank of England will announce the interest rate (no change expected). At the same time the MPC Members’ votes are released, as well as a Monetary Policy Summary that contains details of the reasons that determined the rate decision. Friday we don’t have major indicators and as always, the U.S. releases will have a direct and possibly strong impact on the pair.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
Thanks given by:


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)