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GDMFX - Weekly News
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR ADVANCES ON THE BACK OF FED RATE HIKE OPTIMISM


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The most important day of last week was Wednesday when the FOMC Minutes came out, showing optimism about a potential rate hike in June. This strengthened the US Dollar, driving the pair below support and generating an overall bearish week.

[Image: nejS0IT.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was broken decisively last week and this could be the beginning of an extended period of bearish movement. Currently price is trying to break the barrier at 1.1210 and if it manages to do so, we expect it to drop towards 1.1060; however, the oversold condition of the Stochastic plays against this scenario and may trigger a bullish retracement (the RSI is also close to oversold). Our bias for the week is bearish as long as the pair remains below the 50 days EMA but we expect some bullish retracements.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event on the calendar is the release Monday of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, a survey of about 3,000 purchasing managers that asks respondents to give their opinion on the business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Tuesday we have the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (a survey of about 275 German analysts and professional investors regarding their 6 month outlook for Germany) and the same day the Eurogroup Meetings start.

Wednesday is another day for surveys, with the highlight being the German IFO Business Climate. It has a large sample of about 7,000 businesses and this makes it a high impact indicator but usually the effect is limited if the actual number matches analysts’ expectations. Thursday we turn to the U.S for the release of the Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years) and Friday we remain on the US Dollar side for the release of the Preliminary version of the Gross Domestic Product, which is considered the main gauge of overall economic performance.


GBP/USD

The Pound got a boost from a poll that showed that a Brexit is less probable and that the majority of surveyed people would rather remain in the EU. Most of the gains were erased Friday when the greenback strengthened.

[Image: jGtM91S.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced almost perfectly at 1.4650 and now the bears are struggling to break the support at 1.4500. If they manage to do so, we expect a move into 1.4350; a break of the bullish trend line seen on the chart above would suggest that the pair will enter a period of bearish movement. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is close to the mentioned support zones, adding strength to them and making a break more important.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow week ahead, with only two notable releases: Tuesday the Public Sector Net Borrowing numbers come out and Thursday the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product is released. The former indicator shows the difference between spending and income for public corporations and government during the previous month while the GDP is the main gauge of economic performance, thus it has a strong impact on the currency.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: ECB INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT, U.S. JOBS DATA – THE INGREDIENTS FOR WILD SWINGS


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The greenback won the battle against the Euro last week, breaking support and the bullish trend line seen on the chart below. The economic calendar didn’t reveal major events but optimism about a June rate hike kicked in, helping the US Dollar.

[Image: csSMOd8.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After breaking 1.1210, the pair returned to re-test it from below, bouncing lower and thus confirming the level as resistance. The bullish trend line is also broken and the pair is below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, so all things point towards an extended move south but as we can note, the Stochastic is oversold and the Relative Strength Index is close to its 30 level. This fact increases the chances of a bullish bounce but we expect 1.1060 to be tested this week and there we will probably see a move higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic week opens Monday with the release of the German Consumer Price Index, an always important gauge of inflation that can positively affect the Euro if it shows higher numbers; on the US Dollar side, banks will be closed in observance of Memorial Day so we don’t have any major releases. Tuesday the Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate comes out, followed later in the day by the U.S. Consumer Confidence, a survey of about 5,000 households that tries to gauge the overall opinion about job availability, business conditions and economic environment.

Wednesday is a slow day for the Euro, while the greenback will be affected by the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI. This is another survey that asks purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector to give their assessment about the overall performance of said sector. Thursday will be the busiest day for the Euro as the ECB announces the interest rate and ECB President Mario Draghi holds his usual press conference. Although the rate is not expected to change, volatility is likely to surge during the press conference, so as always, caution is recommended.

Friday is the greenback’s turn to steal the spotlight with the release of the Non-Farm Employment Change (Non-Farm Payrolls). This indicator shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and is considered the most important jobs related indicator for the United States. Almost always this release is accompanied by strong movement and increased volatility.


GBP/USD

Last week was overall bullish but the Pound gave back some of the early gains later in the week. The move up seems exhausted now as the pair failed to clearly threaten key resistance.

[Image: PObdgYn.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bullish break of 1.4650 resistance (seen earlier in the week) did not take price into 1.4765 as expected and instead the pair returned below the broken level. This shows that the bulls are starting to fade away and that we will probably see a move into 1.4500 this week; the 50 days Exponential Moving Average is close to 1.4500, thus creating a confluence zone that will be difficult to break but if the bears manage to do that, the pair is likely to start a new short term downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday UK banks will be closed, celebrating Spring Bank Holiday so the economic calendar is empty. The rest of the week is filled with surveys: Wednesday the Manufacturing PMI comes out, followed Thursday by the Construction PMI and Friday by the Services PMI. These are all leading indicators of economic health, derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sectors and usually, higher numbers trigger Pound strength. As always, the pair will be directly influenced by the U.S. events scheduled throughout the week.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: NFP: THE AFTERMATH


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The first four days of last week were slow and without major developments but all that changed once the NFP numbers came out, showing a disappointing employment situation in the United States and weakening the US Dollar.

[Image: fGJGSPl.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price bounced at a bullish trend line and is now trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the oscillators are moving out of oversold with strong bullish momentum and the U.S. jobs report weakened the greenback severely. All this points to an extended climb that may very well take the pair into the zone around 1.1450, so our bias is bullish for the week ahead but we also expect smaller moves to the downside, mainly because usually after such a strong climb, price retraces a bit. 

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead opens Monday with a speech of Fed Chair Janet Yellen; she will speak at a luncheon in Philadelphia and will touch the topics of monetary policy and economic outlook so we expect a strong influence on the US Dollar. Tuesday and Wednesday are slow days, without major releases while Thursday’s only notable event is a speech of ECB President Mario Draghi at the Brussels Economic Forum.

The lackluster economic scene extends into Friday when the only major release is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. About 500 consumers are asked to rate the current level of economic conditions and usually a higher reading suggests that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future; this in turn means that economic activity will pick up, bringing a stronger greenback.


GBP/USD

Before the NFP data was released, the Pound was losing the battle against the US Dollar, weakening throughout the week. Some of the losses were erased when the U.S. employment data came out but the week still finished lower than it started.

[Image: fGd3J2G.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bullish trend line seen on the chart above still acts as good support as seen from last week’s price action and now the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Although these are signs that price may be headed higher, the bulls clearly showed weakness last week and could only make advances on the back of much worse than expected U.S. economic data. Both currencies are weak at the moment but as long as the pair stays above the trend line, we expect further upside, with 1.4650 as target.

Fundamental Outlook

Same as the Euro and Dollar, the Pound has a slow week ahead, with the only notable release being the Manufacturing Production, scheduled Wednesday. The indicator shows changes in the total value of output generated by the manufacturing sector but usually has a mild impact on the Pound if the actual number matches analysts’ forecast or comes very close. Nonetheless, higher numbers are beneficial for the currency.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THE DREADED BREXIT STRIKES AGAIN


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The US Dollar made a spectacular comeback during the last 2 days of last week, bounced at resistance and erased most of the losses incurred a week before. Short term momentum favors the bears as the pair moved below the 50 period EMA.

[Image: PA1gjHt.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We see bearish pressure building up, following the failed attempt to break 1.1400 resistance. Now price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but although a daily candle has closed below the line, we cannot deem it a true break just yet. However, the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are showing a bearish bias and favor further downside, so for this week we expect a move into 1.1210 and maybe a break of the bullish trend line seen on the chart if the pair can stay below the moving average.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts slowly, without any major announcements Monday but Tuesday action picks up with the release of an important U.S. indicator: the Retail Sales. Higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar because retail sales account for the major part of consumer spending, which in turn represents a hefty part of the entire economic activity.

Wednesday we remain on the US Dollar side for the release of the Federal Funds Rate as well as the FOMC Statement which will offer details regarding the rate decision. Analysts don’t expect a rate change but any hints about a near-future hike are likely to trigger strong greenback movement.

Thursday we receive inflation data from the United States in the form of the Consumer Price Index and the week finishes Friday with a speech of ECB President Mario Draghi, in Munich. Both these events can have a strong influence on their respective currency so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

Bearish pressure on the Pound mounted late last week as polls showed that now more people favor a separation of Britain from the European Union.

[Image: 7IG0FWd.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After the long wicked candle that bounced at 1.4650 resistance, the pair fell through the bullish trend line and the support at 1.4350, setting the stage for an extended period of bearish movement. The strong drop was triggered by the polls we mentioned earlier and since we are less than 2 weeks away from the actual referendum (23 June 2016), we expect more of these polls to come out and to influence the Pound’s direction. Short term control belongs to the bears but caution is recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the week for the Pound is the Consumer Price Index, released Tuesday; this is the main gauge of inflation and shows changes in the price consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. Usually the impact is strong, with higher numbers strengthening the Pound.

The Claimant Count Change comes out Wednesday, showing changes in the number of people who ask for unemployment related social help and Thursday will be the busiest day for the Pound as the British Retail Sales come out, as well as the Interest Rate and a breakdown of the MPC members’ votes. Although the rate is not expected to change for a long while, the event still creates volatility and sometimes irregular price action. As always, the U.S. events will have a major impact on the pair’s movement.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: TO BREXIT OR NOT TO BREXIT!


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Although the pair showed big swings during the week, it ended the period almost where it started it, showing rejection at the bullish trend line. The Fed kept rates unchanged as expected but mentioned that 2 hikes may come until the end of the year.

[Image: apTbl3R.jpg]

Technical Outlook

A massive drop was completely reversed last week and the pair moved above and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, bouncing at the bullish trend line. This shows that the market is in a state of indecision, probably generated by the approaching of the Brexit referendum. We recommend caution throughout the week because we expect irregular movement and alternating volatility. The latest movement shows bullish pressure so if the buyers can take price above the 50 EMA, we expect a move into 1.1400; on the other hand, a break of the trend line will open the door for a move into 1.1060.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday doesn’t hold major events but Tuesday action picks up with the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey of 275 German investors and professional analysts regarding the state of the economy. The same day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee with the main topic being monetary policy; Wednesday she will again testify on the same topic but this time before the House Financial Services Committee. Both these events have the capability to trigger erratic movement so caution is recommended.

Thursday we focus on the US Dollar for the release of the New Home Sales numbers and Friday we have the German IFO Business Climate (a survey of about 7,000 businesses regarding business conditions), followed later in the day by the U.S. Durable Goods Orders. This indicator tracks changes in the total value of orders for goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years and usually a higher value shows increased economic activity and tends to strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Pound was heavily affected last week by the shooting of Jo Cox, a British lawmaker who had a pro-EU stance and the pair finished the week higher after an initial move below support.

[Image: oGbEaCO.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We saw a strong whipsaw last week, which confirms the fact that price action is heavily influenced by the shaky fundamental environment. Price is approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this is a good place for downside movement to resume but a break will probably take the pair into 1.4500 psychological resistance. To the downside, 1.4050 remains a key support but our stance is neutral, considering the nearing of the referendum.

Fundamental Outlook

A huge event takes place this week: the referendum that will decide whether Britain will remain or not in the European Union. It is scheduled for Thursday and is expected to create huge movement and irregular volatility. We recommend choosing other pairs to trade on until things calm down. Other than this, there are no major events on the Pound’s calendar.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: A SMALLER EUROPEAN UNION – A BIG BLOW FOR THE EURO AND POUND


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week Britain has decided to leave the European Union and the impact on the market was tremendous. The Euro tumbled for more than 500 pips but the effects of the Brexit are still in play so we may see further declines.

[Image: ImQgsnn.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The fact that Britain parted ways with the EU weakened both the Pound and the Euro. It’s a historical decision and the markets will continue to be affected by it, especially we’ll hear talks about other EU members leaving or thinking about it. For now the low at 1.0911 represents a key level and to the upside the first major barrier is the recently broken trend line, followed by 1.1335 and 1.1400.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts slow, without any major events Monday but Tuesday action picks up with the release of the Final version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product as well as a U.S. Consumer Confidence survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Wednesday we turn our attention to the Euro for the release of the German Prelim Consumer Price Index (main gauge of inflation) and Thursday the focus remains on German economy for the release of the German Retail Sales.

Friday’s only major event is the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector that tries to gauge their level of confidence regarding overall business conditions. 


GBP/USD

Due to Britain’s referendum results, the Pound dropped for almost 1,800 pips against the US Dollar, reaching levels that were last seen in the mid-1980s. The future is just as uncertain for the Pound as is for the United Kingdom and the European Union.

[Image: 5yPZrZ4.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Currently price is not driven by the technical aspect but by the reactions of EU leaders and major market participants. The low at 1.3227 is a level not reached since the mid ‘80s and it’s very possible to see another attempt to break it but it’s also very possible to see a move back above 1.3835. Either way, caution is still recommended as the next direction is uncertain and volatility has reached peak levels.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule a lot of economic indicators for the week ahead but noteworthy is the Current Account, that will be released Thursday and the Manufacturing PMI that will come out Friday. The first indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods, while the second acts as a leading indicator of economic health, focused on the Manufacturing sector. Considering the turmoil generated by Britain leaving the EU, the mentioned events may be overlooked by market participants.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: WEEK AHEAD HIGHLIGHTS: BOE FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT, U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week the pair erased some of the losses generated by the Brexit referendum and headed higher, into resistance. Part of this climb was generated by speculation that the Fed will not raise rates in the near future.

[Image: iyevwgt.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is still trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.1150 is still holding. Upside movement should be contained by the resistance around 1.1200 and by the 50 days EMA so if the pair reaches that zone, we expect downside action to resume. A move above the mentioned zone would invalidate such a scenario and would make the medium term outlook bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday the United States celebrate Independence Day and this will likely generate irregular volatility; banks across the US will be closed and no indicators will be released. Tuesday is another slow day, without major releases but Wednesday action picks up with the FOMC Meeting Minutes that will offer details on the latest Fed meeting and possibly hints about future rate direction.

Thursday Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the Non-Farm Employment Change and Friday the Non-Farm Payrolls come out, showing changes in the number of new jobs created during the previous month. This is widely regarded as the most important jobs related report and almost always its release creates strong movement, with higher numbers strengthening the US Dollar. It will probably be the week’s main market mover so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

Last week the pair established a new historical low at 1.3120 and retraced higher before dropping again. These are massive swings of more than 400 pips so trading the Pound still carries increased risk.

[Image: hGd3ffJ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price was rejected higher at 1.3227 support and after establishing a high at 1.3533, it came back, attempting to break the mentioned support. If this barrier is surpassed earlier in the week, we expect a re-test of 1.3120 and possibly a new low somewhere in the 1.3000 area. A lot will depend on the talks that are still surrounding United Kingdom’s separation from the EU but also on the NFP results that come out later in the week.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday the Construction PMI comes out, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding overall business conditions in the Construction sector. It will be followed Tuesday by the Services PMI and the BOE Financial Stability Report; also Tuesday BOE Governor Carney will hold a press conference about the Report and this may create high volatility on Pound related pairs.

Wednesday no major indicators are released, Thursday the Manufacturing Production numbers come out and the week ends Friday with the Goods Trade Balance, an indicator which shows value differences between imported and exported goods. Occasionally this indicator creates a strong impact but many times it goes overlooked by the market.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: MASSIVE SWINGS AHEAD. POTENTIAL BANK OF ENGLAND RATE CUT!


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week belonged to the bears again as we witnessed the end of the bullish retracement followed by a move below support. The previous low was not broken and the U.S. NFP triggered irregular movement although the value was better than anticipated.

[Image: 9HAK0qn.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance zone near 1.1150 was tested several times but it proved a barrier too tough to break and the pair soon started to move lower. Price is currently below 1.1060 but the last daily candle shows clear signs of indecision, having long wicks in both its upper and lower parts. Despite this indecision, this week we expect a move into 1.0911 and a potential break of this support. As an alternate scenario, if the pair starts to move north, we expect it to find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead starts Monday with the Eurogroup Meetings, attended by central bankers and key political figures from the EU member states and continues with the Final German CPI released Tuesday. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation but the Final version is the least important so we don’t expect it to be a major market mover.

Wednesday we don’t have anything big on the economic calendar but Thursday action picks up with the release of the American Producer Price Index, which shows the changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and services. This indicator can have inflationary implications because a higher producer price usually leads to a higher price paid by consumers.

Friday is the busiest day of the week as three major U.S. indicators are released: the Consumer Price Index, which is a major gauge of inflation, the Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. All three can strongly affect the greenback, with higher numbers being beneficial for the economy.


GBP/USD

The Pound took another blow last week and dropped for 500 pips, reaching a new several decades low at 1.2796.

[Image: v0qHHpp.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Last week’s drop took the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index in deep oversold territory and this calls for a retracement higher. This potential retracement should find resistance around the 1.3100 mark but the Pound remains a high risk currency and price can shoot through support or resistance without warning. The overall control belongs to the bears, so we favor the short side but the Bank of England is going to announce the interest rate this week and this will overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the Inflation Report Hearings take place, with BOE Governor Mark Carney answering questions regarding the Inflation Report. Usually this event creates strong volatility and considering the current situation, we expect it to do the same this time.

Thursday we are preparing for another price storm because the Bank of England will announce the interest rate, which is expected to drop from the current 0.50% to 0.25%. If this comes true, we will possibly see another dip for the pound-dollar pair but nothing is certain and extreme caution is advised. The rate decision will be accompanied by a Monetary Policy Summary which will outline the reasons that stood behind the decision.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: ECB RATE WEEK, DRAGHI’S PRESS CONFERENCE TAKES CENTER STAGE


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The pair had a pretty indecisive run last week, climbing into resistance and then erasing all gains, dropping to the levels seen in the beginning of the week.

[Image: IpSPpk0.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The busiest day of last week was Friday when we saw a bearish bounce near the confluence zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the horizontal resistance at 1.1150. This rejection may trigger an extended drop that will probably reach the low at 1.0911 but for that to happen, the technical and psychological support at 1.1000 needs to be broken. Considering that this week the ECB will announce their interest rate decision, we expect strong movement but the direction will be decided by the events ahead.

Fundamental Outlook

The first notable event of the week ahead is scheduled Tuesday: the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey that asks about 275 German analysts and investors to give their opinion about a 6-month economic outlook. The same day the U.S. Building Permits come out, offering information about the state of the construction sector in the United States.

Wednesday is a relatively slow day for the Euro and US Dollar but Thursday we expect strong movement because the European Central Bank will announce the interest rate and President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference. Although the rate is not expected to change, the announcement and the conference almost always create high volatility and possible whipsaws.

The week ends Friday with German Manufacturing data in the form of the Purchasing Managers’ Index but the indicator often lacks the strength to trigger massive moves.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England was expected to cut the interest rate last week but they didn’t and as a result the Pound strengthened. Some of the gains were erased Friday on the back of better than expected U.S. data.

[Image: TbHVpvO.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Even before BOE’s decision to hold rates was made public, the pair retraced higher, clearing an oversold position of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic. Now it seems like the pair is headed lower, possibly through 1.3120 and towards 1.2800, resuming the bearish bias generated by the British referendum. The geopolitical environment is fragile and may trigger increased volatility and sharp reversals so caution is recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

British inflation data (Consumer Price Index) is released Tuesday, followed Wednesday by the Claimant Count Change, an indicator that tracks changes in the number of individuals that asked for unemployment related social benefits during the previous month.

Thursday’s main event is the release of the British Retail Sales, an important indicator that usually has a strong impact on the market, mainly because sales made at retail levels represent a major part of the entire consumer spending.

The last event of the week for the Pound comes out Friday in the form of the Manufacturing PMI, a survey that offers insights into the state of the manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS FED DECIDES MONETARY POLICY


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week the pair broke the psychological and technical support at 1.1000, continuing the bearish move started after the bounce at 1.1150. The ECB kept the rate unchanged and President Mario Draghi’s press conference did not move the Euro in a clear direction.

[Image: B7cPkFX.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.1000 will probably bring in additional sellers that will take price into the low at 1.0911 but overall price action is choppy and candles have long wicks, suggesting indecision. The levels to watch are 1.0800 as key support and 1.1150 as resistance but unless this week’s Fed meeting triggers some strong movement, we don’t expect the pair to break either of them. Minor support sits at 1.0911 and minor resistance at 1.1060.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead starts Monday with the release of the German IFO Business Climate, a survey that draws its importance from the large sample of about 7,000 businesses that are asked to rate the current level of economic conditions as well as their 6-month outlook. A similar survey but for the U.S. economy is released Tuesday: the Consumer Confidence; this is indicative of future levels of consumer spending and usually had a medium-to-high impact on the US Dollar.

Wednesday is the most important day of the week for the greenback as the Fed will announce their interest rate and will release a statement outlining the reasons behind the decision. No change is expected (currently <0.50%) but the event creates volatility almost always so caution is advised.

Thursday we take a look at German inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index and the economic week ends Friday with the most important version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product – the Advance version. The GDP is the main gauge of overall economic performance so its release is considered a high-impact event.


GBP/USD

Last week we saw mixed movement on the pound-dollar pair, without any substantial developments but overall price action was bearish. Direction was mostly determined by individual economic releases and the pair remained between support and resistance.

[Image: 3Gd8vjR.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price action created support around 1.3070 and considering that the latest impulse is bearish, we expect a break of this level early during this week. Such a break would open the door for a move into the zone around 1.2800 but if instead price bounces at 1.3070, it will probably climb into the zone around 1.3280. The Fed meeting scheduled this week will probably be the deciding factor for medium term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has only one potential market mover on this week’s calendar: the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product, scheduled for release Wednesday. Out of the three versions (Preliminary, Second Estimate and Final), this one is the first and thus tends to have the biggest impact on the market. As always, the U.S. events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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