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GDMFX - Weekly News
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: NON-FARM PAYROLLS WEEK – US DOLLAR LOADS UP FOR A BIG JUMP?


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week the Fed gave minor hints that we may see a rate hike this year and the U.S. Gross Domestic Product increased significantly but despite all this the pair did not have unidirectional movement and we saw sharp reversals.

[Image: VhWNk9Q.jpg]

Technical Outlook

On a Daily chart the pair is still trading below a bearish trend line, below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the last daily candle shows long upper wick which is a sign of rejection. Also, the bulls tried twice last week to break 1.1100 resistance but failed. All these are bearish signs that make us believe that price will head lower this week but considering the way the pair has been moving lately, we cannot exclude another move higher. Key support sits at 1.0820 while resistance is located at 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

The euro has a slow week ahead so most of the focus will be on the US Dollar. The first notable event of the week is the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled Monday; it’s a leading indicator of economic health which can strengthen the greenback if it posts a higher than anticipated value. Tuesday is a calm day for both the euro and the dollar while Wednesday the U.S. Trade Balance is released, showing the difference between imported and exported goods and services. The same day Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the Non-Farm Employment change, a report which tries to mimic the Government data that comes out 2 days later.

The final and most important event of the week comes Friday in the form of the Non-Farm Payrolls which is the primary gauge of employment in the United States and has a huge impact on the US Dollar. Expect strong movement at the time of the release and dollar strength if the jobs market shows signs of improvement.


GBP/USD

The pair had a very choppy week, with price climbing to resistance and then showing multiple signs of weakness and indecision.

[Image: N5edutv.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We saw a bounce at the bullish trend line, which resulted in a climb into 1.5675 resistance but the last three days have been extremely choppy, with long wicks and small bodies. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is almost flat but still below price so it can offer support together with the bullish trend line. Our bias is neutral until we will see a clear break of either 1.5675 resistance or the bullish trend line.

Fundamental Outlook

The first British release of the week is the Manufacturing PMI scheduled Monday, followed Tuesday by the Construction PMI and Wednesday by the Services PMI. These are all leading indicators of economic health, focused towards their respective sectors and usually have a medium impact on the Pound. The most important day of the week will be Thursday when the Bank of England will release their Inflation Report and will announce the Interest Rate decision (no change expected from the current 0.50%). Later in the day BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the Inflation Report so we are in for a day with high volatility.

Friday no major UK events are scheduled but the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll will have a direct and strong impact on the pair’s movement.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: DOLLAR PICKS UP SPEED AS THE FED MOVES CLOSER TO A RATE HIKE


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week European news announcements were scarce and American data was mixed, creating yet another period of indecision and choppy price action.

[Image: G8ssRYg.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After moving to the downside in the beginning of the week, the pair reversed, without reaching the support at 1.0820. Resistance is located at 1.1000 but the next direction is uncertain, considering the way the pair has been behaving lately; the oscillators don’t show an extreme condition and are just offering mixed signals (Stochastic crossed bearish and RSI is moving upwards). There has been speculation about the Fed raising rates in September so if this week we will get further hints about this, we might see a breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday is a slow day for both the euro and the dollar and Tuesday the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is released, showing the opinions of 275 professional investors and analysts about the condition of the German economy. Usually this optimism indicator has a strong impact on the euro and acts as a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday we have a calm day again but Thursday the U.S. Advance Retail Sales are released; the indicator could contribute to speculation about a rate hike if higher than expected values are posted so it could be very important for short-to-medium US Dollar strength.

Friday the German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released, showing the performance of the German economy which is one of the most important in the European Union. The other event of the day is the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey; a confident consumer usually spends more so higher values are viewed as bullish for the dollar.


GBP/USD

After a slow start of the week, the pair picked up speed and finally broke out of the tight range it was in. The Bank of England did not move as close to a rate hike as some have anticipated and the Pound weakened overall.

[Image: JusOc8k.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.5500 was finally breached and last week closed with price below it. However, the last daily candle shows a long wick in its lower side, suggesting rejection so the break cannot be considered true yet, especially because lately the pair has been characterized by a lot of reversals and choppy movement. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average can offer the first resistance, followed by 1.5675 while the first support is located at 1.5330.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead is very slow for the Pound from a macroeconomic point of view, with the only notable indicators being released Wednesday: the Claimant Count Change and the Average Earnings Index. The first indicator tracks changes in the number of unemployed people who ask for social aid and the second indicator shows changes in the pay received by employees. A lower number of unemployed people is beneficial for the economy and a higher pay for labor is a leading indicator of consumer inflation so it can strengthen the Pound because current inflation levels are considered too low. As always, the U.S. releases will have a direct impact on the pound-dollar pair.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: U.S. INFLATION AND FED RATE HIKE RUMORS STEAL THE SHOW


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week we saw stronger movement than we’ve become accustomed to see from the pair lately. The euro strengthened on optimism regarding the Greek bailout and an end to the crisis, taking the pair above resistance.

[Image: ZfErgDd.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The zone of resistance created by 1.1000 and 1.1100 proved hard to break in the past and all moves outside were quickly reversed. Now price has moved once again outside the zone but it seems to have trouble breaking 1.1215 and last week we saw a bounce at this level. Once and if 1.1215 is broken to the upside, the pair is likely to move into the next resistance located at 1.1450, while a move below 1.1100 would open the door for another drop towards 1.0820.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday no major releases are scheduled and Tuesday the only notable indicator is the U.S. Building Permits. Wednesday however, will be a very important day because we will get insights into the U.S. inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index and also the Fed will release the Minutes of their latest meeting. This is a very important document because it usually offers hints about the next rate hike and traders around the world analyze its contents to decide the next direction.

Thursday the U.S. Existing Home Sales come out, together with the Unemployment Claims and Friday focus shifts on Europe for the release of the French and German Manufacturing PMIs which are leading indicators of economic health derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector.


GBP/USD

After what appeared to be a break of support, the pair rebounded early last week and the bullish impulse continued, with price approaching 1.5675, showing that the ranging period is still not over.

[Image: pRL69t8.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is still trapped between 1.5500 support and 1.5675 resistance, with daily candles showing long wicks in their upper and lower side, which is a sign of indecision. However, the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this is a bullish sign so we may see a break of 1.5675 early in the week. If this is the case, the move is likely to extend into 1.5800 resistance or at least to continue until the oscillators become overbought. A bounce at resistance would make 1.5500 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

Two major indicators are released this week by the United Kingdom: the Consumer Price Index (main gauge of inflation) comes out Tuesday, followed Thursday by the British Retail Sales which account for the major part of economic activity. Considering the importance of these indicators and the U.S. releases, we expect this week a move outside the range the pair has been trapped in.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EURO SOARS, DOLLAR UNABLE TO RESPOND, POUND STILL IN LIMBO


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The euro had an easy week against the US Dollar as the greenback suffered from back and forth speculation on a possible rate hike. German’s policy makers approved the third Greek bailout with overwhelming majority, contributing to euro strength.

[Image: RJhPiP5.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.1215 was decisively broken as price moved strongly to the upside for the last three days of the last week and now the key level at 1.1450 is threatened. However, price traveled almost 350 pips without even the smallest retracement, a behavior not seen in a long while, so we expect a move to the downside that should be considered a pullback, not a reversal. This move is likely to occur once 1.1450 is touched considering that the Relative Strength Index is entering overbought but it’s still pointing upwards, suggesting that price will still move to the upside before retracing.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday there are no special indicators scheduled for release but Tuesday things pick up with the release of the German IFO Business Climate and the U.S. Consumer Confidence. Both are leading indicators of economic optimism, the first being derived from the opinions of about 7,000 German businesses and the second is based on the outlook of about 5,000 households.

Wednesday’s highlight is the release of the U.S. Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years) and Thursday the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product comes out. This is the broadest measure of an economy’s performance and its importance is increased by the fact that the Fed is closely monitoring such indicators in order to time a rate hike.

Friday European inflation takes center stage as the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index comes out. Inflation in the EU has been too low for quite a long period and the German economy is one of the most important for overall inflation so an increase suggests that the inflation of the entire zone could pick up.


GBP/USD

Inflation improved in the United Kingdom but Retail Sales dropped, generating mixed movement with a slightly bullish bias. The pair is still struggling to break resistance but neither side is in clear control.

[Image: 18GrXCL.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The daily candles show long wicks and small bodies so it’s clear that the pair is still surrounded by indecision. Although the resistance at 1.5675 has been breached several times last week, we still haven’t seen a strong candle that closed above it so a move south still has a high probability of occurring. The Stochastic has reached overbought and is curving downwards, increasing the chances of a drop; if this happens, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will be the first target, otherwise the pair is likely to move into 1.5800.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow week ahead as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases except the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product which comes out Friday. This is the main gauge of overall economic performance and it’s the second version out of the three (Preliminary, Second Estimate and Final).
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE, U.S. JOBS DATA – ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR ANOTHER WILD WEEK


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The week that just ended showed a sharp reversal after establishing a multi-month high at 1.1713. The pair came down as hard as it climbed, influenced by turmoil on the Chinese markets and speculation about how they will affect a potential Fed rate hike.

[Image: O2GBeaB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Two important levels were breached to the downside: 1.1450 and 1.1215 and although these provided good resistance in the past, they did not turn into support and didn’t manage to push price higher once touched. Now the bears are in control and it is less likely to see another sharp turn to the upside, the oscillators show good momentum and are moving down coming from overbought so we anticipate a move into the bullish trend line seen on the Daily chart above. The fundamental data will play a major role in this week’s price action.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday we will receive more information about European inflation as the Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index is released. Tuesday US Manufacturing data comes out in the form of the Purchasing Managers’ Index and Wednesday we take a first look at US jobs data as Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the US Non-Farm Employment Change report.

The “heavy” events start Thursday when the European Central Bank announce their rate decision and ECB President Mario Draghi holds a press conference during which he answers journalists’ questions. The conference creates strong movement almost always so caution is recommended while the ECB President speaks. The economic week ends Friday with the most important jobs report for the US economy: the Non-Farm Payrolls (also known as Non-Farm Employment Change). The indicator shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and has a strong impact on the US currency because more jobs lead to increased levels of consumer spending, which represents a major part of overall economic activity.


GBP/USD

After a bullish first day of last week, the pair dropped substantially and traveled roughly 500 pips to the downside, reaching 1.5330 support and generating a massive win for the bears.

[Image: Moo5IC9.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair showed an almost perfect bounce at 1.5800 resistance and the bears took over, creating the biggest movement seen during the last period. Price was trapped between 1.5675 and 1.5500 and now that it has broken out, we expect the current direction to continue during the weeks to come. The first barrier in front of falling prices is the key support at 1.5330 where we expect price to stall or rebound slightly higher and continue lower afterwards. The oscillators show good downside momentum but the RSI is approaching oversold, increasing the chances of a pullback during the week.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday British banks will be closed in observance of Summer Bank Holiday, thus no major indicators are released and liquidity might be irregular. Tuesday the British Manufacturing PMI is released, followed Wednesday by the Construction PMI and Thursday by the Services PMI. These are all surveys of purchasing managers and act as leading indicators of economic health so numbers that surpass analysts’ expectations are beneficial for the Pound. As always, the US events will have a direct and strong impact on the pair.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: SIGNS OF A DOWNTREND: DOLLAR STILL STRONG DESPITE SOFT U.S DATA


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The week that ended was characterized by bearish price action as ECB President Mario Draghi had a dovish stance on economic growth and inflation expectations. U.S. employment data was mixed, showing that fewer new jobs were created but the Unemployment Rate dropped, bringing some strength to the dollar.

[Image: HKsVFqE.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average but the support at 1.1100 stopped the fall, at least for the moment. This week we expect a break of the mentioned support and a move into the uptrend line seen on the chart above. If the trend line is indeed touched, the oscillators are likely to become oversold and this may create a bounce higher, with the moving average becoming the first potential resistance. If current support rejects price, 1.1215 will become first potential target.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday U.S. banks are closed due to Labor Day so there are no major indicators scheduled and the pair may suffer from irregular volatility. Tuesday the headline is the release of the Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product and Wednesday is a slow day, without notable events.

Thursday the US Unemployment Claims come out, showing how many people applied for unemployment related benefits and Friday we will get more information about European inflation as the German Consumer Price Index is released. Also, on the dollar side, the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Confidence survey which shows how respondents rate the current and future economic conditions.


GBP/USD

British economic data disappointed throughout last week and this was reflected in a weak Pound and a massive drop for the pair, without the smallest pullback.

[Image: F2GLfoH.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Two important support levels were broken last week (1.5330 and 1.5200) and it seems like a new medium term downtrend is beginning to shape up. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are both oversold and this fact, combined with the lack of a proper pullback, makes us believe that this week we may see bullish price action. It is important to note that all moves up should be treated as pullbacks in a downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook

Wednesday is the first important day of the week for the Pound as Manufacturing Production numbers come out, followed later in the day by the NIESR estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product.

Thursday the Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision and the structure of the members’ votes. Analysts don’t expect a rate change but if more members of the committee voted for a hike, the Pound is likely to strengthen because this could mean that a rate liftoff is getting nearer. As always, the U.S. indicators released throughout the week will have a direct impact on the pair.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: IN THE SHADOW OF THE EPIC RATE DECISION


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week price action was mostly bullish, on the back of a lackluster fundamental scene and US Dollar weakness, which generated a move above immediate resistance. Volatility increased in the second part of the week, mostly influenced by economic releases.

[Image: oYyNYAE.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is now trading above the 50 day Exponential Moving Average and above 1.1215 so the next logical destination is the important level at 1.1450. Both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are moving upwards, supporting a continued move to the upside, at least until they approach extreme levels (overbought). A touch of resistance combined with a potentially overbought state of the oscillators may generate a move lower but the week’s direction will be heavily influenced by the huge Fed event.

Fundamental Outlook

Ahead of the major Fed rate decision, the markets will be influenced Tuesday by the German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is a survey of about 275 investors and professional analysts focused on their opinion regarding the 6-month economic outlook. The same day the U.S. Retail Sales are released so we have a busy day, with possibly strong movement.

Wednesday we take a look at American inflation as the U.S. Consumer Price Index is released and Thursday we will witness probably the most anticipated event of the year so far: the Federal Funds Rate decision. Since the beginning of the year, speculation has surrounded a potential U.S. rate hike and the most talked about date for such a change is finally here. An increase is anticipated, but even if it doesn’t occur, the US Dollar will move strongly at the time of the release, which will be accompanied by a Press Conference and a Rate Statement. It is likely to see irregular movement during the days preceding the Fed meeting so caution is recommended throughout the week.


GBP/USD

For almost the entire last week the Pound strengthened against the greenback and we saw a bullish pullback which is now close to resistance.

[Image: hPxXwsJ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is now approaching a heavy resistance zone represented by the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and the level at 1.5500. Both oscillators are still bullish but before the current up move, the bears showed great strength which may come back once 1.5500 resistance is touched. If this is true, 1.5330 will become the first target but keep in mind that the importance of the Fed rate decision will overshadow any technical scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

Apart from the Fed decision, the pair will be influenced by the British inflation numbers which come out Tuesday in the form of the Consumer Price Index, by the British Claimant Count (change in the number of people who applied for unemployment related help) released Wednesday and by the British Retail Sales scheduled for release Thursday. We expect a busy week, but it’s possible to see choppy price action until the Fed meetings.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: FED DOESN’T HIKE, YET SPECULATION STILL SURROUNDS THE US DOLLAR


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week the US Dollar was heavily influenced by the Fed rate meeting and by speculation regarding the outcome. As we know the Fed decided to maintain the rate unchanged but Fed Chair Yellen mentioned they are closer to a hike, which could come as soon as October.

[Image: JlqEWUC.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The rate decision initially weakened the dollar but probably hopes of an October hike, staged a comeback and the pair bounced at 1.1450 resistance. The first support is located at 1.1215 which combined with the 50 day Exponential Moving Average will create a confluence zone which will be tough to break. If this zone is breached, we expect price to head into the bullish trend line visible on the chart, otherwise we will see another encounter with 1.1450.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead is rather calm when it comes to economic releases but here are the most notable events: Monday the greenback will be affected by the Existing Home Sales numbers and Wednesday ECB President Mario Draghi will testify on monetary policy before the European Parliament. Thursday the German IFO Business Climate survey comes out, alongside the US Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years).

The week ends Friday with the Final version of the American Gross Domestic Product; although this is the least important out of the three versions (Advance, Preliminary and Final), it must not be overlooked as it can generate US Dollar strength if it posts a higher than expected value.


GBP/USD

Even before the Fed event, the Pound started to strengthen against the greenback, mostly because of hints that the Bank of England is preparing a rate hike in the near future. The week was overall bullish but some gains were erased Friday.

[Image: Ej6x0ya.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Last week’s climb took price above the 50 day Exponential Moving Average, in close vicinity to 1.5675 resistance but candles corresponding to the last 2 days show long wicks in their upper parts. This is a sign of rejection, which combined with the importance of 1.5675 resistance for short term movement, makes us believe that we will see a move towards 1.5330 this week. A bounce at 1.5500 would suggest that bullish movement will continue and that 1.5675 will probably be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The week is very slow for the Pound, with the only noteworthy indicator being the Public Sector Net Borrowing numbers released Tuesday. The indicator shows the difference between spending and income for the government and public corporations, with a higher number being considered detrimental because it shows more debt. Usually the impact of this release is mild, unless there’s a big difference between expectations and actual numbers.
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WEEKLY'S ANALYSIS: IMPROVED U.S. JOBS SITUATION – A STEP TOWARDS 2015 RATE HIKE


EUR/USD



Weekly's Analysis: The first 2 days of last week were bearish, with the pair heading towards the support at 1.1100 but once this barrier was hit, price action became mixed and neither side managed to post further advances.

[Image: X5vDUiu.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is now trapped between 1.1215 resistance and 1.1100 support and overall movement is choppy. We maintain a slightly bearish bias, anticipating a break of 1.1100 and a touch of the bullish trend line. If the trend line is broken, the pair is “free” to travel lower, with 1.0820 as the first major target. To the upside 1.1450 remains key resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important event of the week comes Monday in the form of an interview of FOMC voting member William Dudley who will discuss inflation expectations and interest rate increase. This interview is of direct interest to Forex market participants and could spur strong US Dollar movement. Tuesday a United States Consumer Confidence survey is released and will act as a leading indicator of consumer spending, while on the Euro side we will take a first look at German inflation as their Preliminary Consumer Price Index comes out.

Wednesday the European Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate comes out, offering insights into overall Euro Zone inflation and Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the Non-Farm Employment Change which will affect the greenback but to a lower extend than the government jobs data released 2 days later.

Thursday is a quiet day, with the most important release being the US Manufacturing PMI (survey or purchasing managers regarding economic conditions in the manufacturing sector) and Friday will probably be the most volatile day of the week as the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are released. This is widely considered the most important jobs related report for the United States and the impact on the US Dollar is almost always huge, with more jobs strengthening it and the opposite for less jobs.


GBP/USD

The pair dropped 5 days out of 5 last week and the bears managed to break important support levels as the dollar strengthened and the pound was affected by weak economic data.

[Image: Eg07toB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Short term price action is controlled by the bears but the pair is printing a triple bottom pattern around 1.5170. This is a bullish pattern which is likely to generate upside movement and if this is the case, we may see a touch from below of 1.5330. A break of 1.5170 zone and thus an invalidation of the triple bottom will open the door for a move towards the next level of interest, which is located around 1.4970; the oscillators are still bearish, supporting such a move.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech at the Lloyds of London but the late hour (7:40 pm GMT) may hinder a high impact unless the Governor makes intriguing or strong remarks. Wednesday the British Current Account (difference in value between imported and exported goods and services) is made public and the same day the Final Dross Domestic Product is also released.

Thursday we get insights into the health of the British manufacturing sector with the release of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index and Friday the only notable event for the Pound is the release of the Construction PMI. Of course, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls will have a strong impact on the pair as always.
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: NFP DISAPPOINTS, PUSHING RATE-INCREASE OUTLOOK FURTHER


EUR/USD



Weekly Analysis: The week was mixed ahead of the American jobs data as most market participants waited to see the result. The pair rallied strongly on the back of US Dollar weakness generated by the disappointing numbers but the euro soon gave back most of the gains.

[Image: YXSY3iF.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The climb was stopped by the resistance level located at 1.1320 and price moved again below 1.1215, so a breakout didn’t occur despite important economic data. First support is located at 1.1100 but the pair is still in indecision mode and it will remain so until either 1.1320 or 1.1100 are broken. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat and doesn’t offer any kind of support or resistance for the time being but keep in mind that U.S. data was much worse than expected so we are likely to see dollar weakness.

Fundamental Outlook

The week is slower than the last in terms of economic releases but here are the main events: Monday the US Dollar will be affected by the Non-Manufacturing PMI and Tuesday the U.S. Trade Balance (difference between the value of imported and exported goods and services) comes out. Both are important indicators but the impact often depends on the difference between forecast and actual (a bigger difference will generate stronger impact). Also Tuesday, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech in Frankfurt so the euro is likely to show increased volatility.

Wednesday is a slow day, without notable events but Thursday the always important FOMC Meeting Minutes are released, offering insights into the Fed’s latest meeting. Many analysts’ expected a rate increase which didn’t occur so maybe some questions regarding the reasoning behind this decision will be answered in the Minutes. That release will be the last major event of the week because Friday no major indicators are scheduled.


GBP/USD

The week ended almost where it started, with the main event being the U.S. NFP which generated a strong climb followed by a smaller drop.

[Image: KJ4AXMp.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.5100 was nearly touched last week and price bounced higher but the bulls couldn’t close above 1.5200 despite the blow took by the US Dollar from disappointing jobs data. This shows that the Pound still lacks the strength needed to stage a move higher but if early in the week, the pair moves above 1.5200, we may see an attempt to travel towards 1.5330, otherwise 1.5100 is likely the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic week opens for the Pound Monday with the release of the Services PMI, a survey of purchasing managers regarding the health of the services sector, followed Wednesday by the Manufacturing Production numbers (shows changes in the total value of output generated by the manufacturing sector).

The last major release of the week for the Pound is the BOE Interest Rate scheduled Thursday. The current value is 0.50% and no change is expected but at the same time a breakdown of the MPC members’ votes is made public and this can have an impact on the Pound if some members have changed their vote compared to the previous release.
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