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GDMFX - Daily News


Forex News: Friday the pair moved higher on the back of better than expected numbers for the European Purchasing Managers’ Indexes but the key resistance at 1.2000 pushed the pair lower and erased all gains, so the session ended close to where it started.

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Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action doesn’t offer a lot of clues for the next move and overall the pair remains in a range, without clear direction. Strong resistance is located at 1.2000 and to the downside, if the pair can move below the 50 EMA, it might drop into 1.1900. Today’s price action will probably be affected by the German Federal Elections that took place Sunday, so the technical side will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 1:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify in Brussels before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, about monetary developments and the economy. This has the potential to be a high-impact event, so caution is recommended.

The day’s other notable event is the release of the German IFO Business Climate, which is a survey derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses, focused on economic optimism and outlook for the next 6-months. The time of the release is 8:00 am GMT and the expected value is 116.0, a small increase from the previous 115.9.


British Prime Minister May delivered a speech Friday in Florence, mentioning that the U.K. will be leaving the single market and the customs union. This was the main reasons for the weakening of the Pound but support wasn’t breached.

[Image: 6Trom4P.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The last 4-hour candle shows a long wick in its lower part, which is a sign of rejection. Also, price is bouncing off of the confluence zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the horizontal support at 1.3450. Strictly from a technical point of view, all this suggests that price will probably bounce higher but the fundamental side (represented by Prime Minster May’s stance) indicates that lower prices will follow. Look for a break of the confluence zone because if it occurs, more sellers will probably join.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important releases for today, thus the pair’s direction will be mainly decided by the technical aspect.
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