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GDMFX - Daily News
#81
FOREX NEWS: IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION AS ECONOMIC RELEASES LACK ALMOST COMPLETELY

EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday was a day characterized by another major whipsaw experienced at the time of the Non Farm Payrolls release. The number of new jobs was close to what analysts had forecast but the market had a mixed reaction.

[Image: image0011-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The bullish impulse was reversed in close vicinity of the resistance located at 1.3680 and a big four hour pin bar was printed. This type of candle indicates rejection and a potential move lower which will encounter the first support at 1.3585. A move above 1.3680 will nullify the effect of the pin bar and will make 1.3730 the first target. Considering the latest movement, our current bias is neutral until further developments.

Fundamental Outlook

Today French and German Banks are closed in observance of Whit Monday, a fact that will potentially generate irregular volatility and sluggish price action. On top of that, no US economic data is released so the chances of a slow Monday are increased.


GBP/USD

The Non Farm Payrolls release had a similar impact on the Cable and we saw a move up, countered immediately by the bears; at the moment price is sitting below resistance.

[Image: image002-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

For the time being the level of 1.6820 is offering good resistance and rejects all bullish moves. The Relative Strength Index is close to the 70 level and further bullish movement will probably take it into overbought, thus increasing the chances of a move south. If price doesn’t manage to break this level today, we are likely to see a shift of power towards the bears, with 1.6750 support being the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases for today so price action will be mostly driven by the technical aspect of the market.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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#82
FOREX NEWS: BEARS ATTEMPTING TO DRAG BOTH PAIRS LOWER

EUR/USD


Forex News: The bears stepped in with conviction yesterday and managed to take the pair into 1.3585 support. Major economic releases lacked but price had unidirectional movement for almost the entire day.

[Image: image0012-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

It looks like the mixed reaction caused by last week’s ECB decision is starting to wear off and the market is finally choosing a direction. Of immediate importance is the support at 1.3585 which is still not broken decisively and until that happens, the probability of upside moves remains high. The support at 1.3560 is still active but its importance is diminished as recent price action has been influenced more by 1.3585 and 1.3500. The latter is also the next target once the current level is broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The French Industrial Production numbers are released today at 6:45 am GMT and expected to increase from the previous -0.7% to 0.3%. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of output produced by the industrial sector during the analyzed month and higher numbers suggest economic expansion, thus strengthening the Euro. However, the impact is mild, especially if the real value is close to analysts’ forecast.


GBP/USD

The bulls made another attempt yesterday to break 1.6820 but failed and as a result the rest of the day was controlled by the bears.

[Image: image0031-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Lately the pair is trading almost sideways, in close vicinity to 1.6820 resistance and the bulls lack the determination needed to break this level. Considering this, our bias is slightly negative, anticipating a move south that will touch 1.6750 but a lot depends on the economic data released today by the United Kingdom.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the UK Manufacturing Production is released and anticipated to decrease slightly from last month’s 0.5% to 0.4%. Since manufacturing is an important part of Great Britain’s economic activity, better numbers can strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT, an estimate of the UK Gross Domestic Product is announced; the last estimate was 1.0% and values that surpass this figure will strengthen the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
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Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#83
FOREX NEWS: BEARS GAIN CONFIDENCE BUT BULLISH RETRACEMENTS ARE EXPECTED

EUR/USD


Forex News: The bears continued yesterday the momentum which started a day before and successfully broke the support located at 1.3585. The economic data released throughout the day was in line with analysts’ expectations but didn’t have a huge impact on price action.

[Image: 2014.06.11-Bears-gain-confidence-but-bul...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The sellers are in control of the pair at the moment with both 1.3585 and 1.3560 being broken. Now the support at 1.3500 is the next lower target but on a four hour chart the Relative Strength Index is dangerously close to the 30 level which indicates an oversold condition. We expect retracements north which can encounter resistance at the two levels mentioned earlier (broken support may turn into resistance) and once the retracement is complete, bearish price action can resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks important economic releases for both the Euro and the US Dollar so direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect of the market.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing output showed a figure which matched the forecast and the impact on the Pound wasn’t tremendous. However, mostly due to technical reasons, our predicted target of 1.6750 was reached yesterday.

[Image: 2014.06.11-Bears-gain-confidence-but-bul...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook


The pair paused at 1.6750 support and we are now faced with another bounce-or-break scenario. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an extreme reading so it doesn’t help a lot in predicting if we will see a break or a bounce; the next levels of interest are 1.6700 to the downside and 1.6820 to the upside but the Pound’s direction will depend a lot on the unemployment data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 8:30 am GMT the Claimant Count Change will be announced by the UK Office for National Statistics. The indicator shows the change in the number of unemployed people who asked for social help during the previous month and usually higher numbers indicate that economic activity has decreased. Today’s forecast is -25.0K, almost unchanged from last month’s -25.1K and the Pound will be weakened if numbers above the forecast are shown.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#84
FOREX NEWS: US RETAIL SALES: THE DAY’S HEADLINE

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair traded without clear direction and the bulls made a timid attempt to take price higher but this didn’t result in a break of resistance. No major economic data was released, contributing to the day’s slow movement.

[Image: 2014.06.12-US-Retail-Sales-the-days-head...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The downtrend is intact but the Relative Strength Index is still moving very close to its 30 level, a fact which suggests an almost oversold condition of the market. This increases the chance of bullish moves which should be considered – if they do occur – just pullbacks in a downtrend, not reversals. Resistance still sits at 1.3560 followed by 1.3585, while the first lower target is represented by 1.3500.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB Monthly Bulletin is released at 8:00 am GMT, revealing the Bank’s outlook concerning future economic conditions as well as information about the statistical data which was analyzed when the interest rate decision was made. The impact of the release varies, depending on the bank’s stance.

Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the US Retail Sales come out, showing the change in the total value of sales made at retail outlets. Consumer spending accounts for about two thirds of all US economic activity and retail sales make up for about one third of this spending so the impact of the release is usually very high. The anticipated change is 0.5%, compared with last month’s 0.1% and under normal circumstances higher figures strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s unemployment numbers came out better than expected, generating Pound strength and driving the pair higher. The entire day was controlled by the bulls and for the time being support is holding.

[Image: 2014.06.12-US-Retail-Sales-the-days-head...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The bounce-or-break scenario we mentioned before came to a clear conclusion yesterday as we saw a bounce higher off 1.6750 support. This rejection opens the door for a touch of 1.6820 resistance but this level proved very tough to break during last week and this week as well so once price touches it again, we expect a move south. The US Retail Sales data released today will play an important role in this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic releases for today so price direction will be mainly influenced by technical factors and by the US Retail Sales.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#85
FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION DATA – THE DAY’S ONLY NOTABLE RELEASE

EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday bearish movement resumed but price action was not very fast or volatile; however, the pair traveled below 1.3560 and the Euro continued to weaken.

[Image: 2014.06.16-European-inflation-data-the-d...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Recent price action created minor support at 1.3520 and this will be the first barrier in front of further downside movement but the bearish momentum seems to slow down lately, a fact which signifies that the pair might re-visit 1.3560 resistance. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading and it’s rather neutral but Eurozone’s CPI is release today and this can be a deciding factor for the day’s direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the European Consumer Price Index is announced and anticipated to remain unchanged at 0.5%. Inflation is still a concerning matter and lower values will most likely weaken the Euro, considering the fact that ECB’s inflation target is just below 2.0% and the current CPI is far from this target.


GBP/USD

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney commented that a rate hike may be discussed sooner than anticipated, a fact which triggered enormous Pound strength and took the pair into the year’s high.

[Image: 2014.06.16-European-inflation-data-the-d...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Price came within a few pips of a multi-year’s high located at 1.6996, putting the bulls in clear control of the pair. However, this control could be lost if 1.6996 (1.7000) is not broken during the next days and we must note the severe overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart. This increases the chance of a retracement lower which may find support at 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today and price action will be mainly affected by technical factors.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#86
FOREX NEWS: EURO IN CONSOLIDATION PATTERN, POUND REACHES NEW HIGHS. ECONOMIC DATA DECIDES DIRECTION

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair didn’t travel a substantial distance during yesterday’s trading session and 1.3560 resistance was re-visited. Euro Zone’s CPI came out with the anticipated value and the release didn’t create a lot of volatility.

[Image: 2014.06.17-Euro-in-consolidation-pattern...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is in a consolidation zone between1.3585 and 1.3520 and a breakout is imminent. The medium term trend is bearish so there’s a higher probability of a break of support than of resistance. If 1.3520 is broken, the next important level is located at 1.3500 followed by 1.3480 while to the upside price will encounter resistance at 1.3650 if 1.3585 will be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

An important German survey is released today at 9:00 am GMT: the ZEW Economic Sentiment. This indicator is based on the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts who are asked to rate the current and future economic conditions. The forecast is an increase from 33.1 to 35.2, a fact which would strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher.

At 12:30 pm GMT the American Consumer Price Index is announced and expected to decrease from 0.3% to 0.2%, a fact which would be detrimental for the US Dollar since the CPI acts as the main gauge of inflation.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to climb, fueled by speculation about a potential rate hike performed by the BoE and 1.7000 was breached as a result.

[Image: 2014.06.17-Euro-in-consolidation-pattern...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook


Immediately after piercing the multi-year top created at 1.6996, the pair returned below it, a fact which shows that resistance is still holding and it will take more than one attempt to break it. Also, the Relative Strength Index is starting to descend towards the 70 level, coming from overbought territory, a fact which favors the bears and increases the chance of a touch of 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook

Price direction will be influenced today by the release of United Kingdom’s CPI which is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. Inflation is anticipated to drop from the previous 1.8% to 1.7% and if analysts’ expectations come true or even lower numbers are posted, the Pound is likely to lose some steam. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#87
FOREX NEWS: FOMC RELEASES A CLUSTER OF MARKET-MOVING DATA

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair failed to break free of the current consolidation pattern which governs price action despite the fact that German ZEW posted worse than expected values and the American CPI showed an increase.

[Image: 2014.06.18-FOMC-releases-a-cluster-of-ma...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Some US Dollar strength was seen yesterday at the time of the CPI release, making the pair bounce lower off the resistance located at 1.3585. The downtrend line seen in the picture above created a confluence zone but although all the ingredients for a break of support were present, the pair had a rather slow day. We expect the latest momentum to be continued today and the pair to break 1.3520 support, but a lot depends on the US events released in the second part of the day.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:00 pm GMT the Federal Funds Rate (not expected to change from the current <0.25%) is announced within the FOMC Statement and will be followed half an hour by a Press Conference which will contain commentary regarding the monetary policy and possibly future rate direction. The FOMC will also release at 6:00 pm GMT their Economic Projections regarding inflation and economic conditions for the next two years. This cluster of events is likely to generate a lot of strong movement and we recommend caution if trading at the time.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index showed yesterday that inflation dropped more than analysts had forecast and this weakened the Pound. However, the losses incurred were almost immediately recovered, creating a major whipsaw on the lower time frames.


[Image: 2014.06.18-FOMC-releases-a-cluster-of-ma...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Although we saw yesterday some choppy price action, the resistance at 1.6996 is still holding and the Relative Strength Index is moving down, coming from overbought territory. These factors favor a move south, towards the potential support area located at 1.6920. A move above 1.7000 would invalidate the Double Top formation and would resume the uptrend, making 1.7040 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will announce today at 8:30 am GMT the breakdown of the MPC members’ votes regarding the latest interest rate decision. This is a good opportunity for traders to assess the stance of the BoE on the interest rate and to see if the MPC members have a difference of opinion. Later in the day, the pair will be directly affected by the US events mentioned above.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#88
FOREX NEWS: THE CALM AFTER THE STORM?

EUR/USD


Forex News: The FOMC cluster of events generated huge volatility yesterday but unfortunately the price movement was almost untradeable at the time because of huge whipsaws and choppy up and down movement.

[Image: 2014.06.19-The-calm-after-the-storm-pic1-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action holds absolutely no technical clues about future movement but the fact still remains that 1.3585 resistance couldn’t be broken decisively. This increases the chance of a bearish trend resumption but moves above the mentioned level will make 1.3680 the next potential target.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings start today and are attended by finance ministers of countries where Euro is the main currency; the President of the ECB will also participate and the discussions which will take place will have an impact on the Euro’s future direction. Later in the day, at 2:00 am GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, showing the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding the current level of business conditions. The expected figure is 14.3, a decrease from the previous 15.4 and usually lower numbers are detrimental for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair was also highly affected by the US events but price action was slightly more docile than EUR/USD. We had another encounter with 1.6996 and a bounce off 1.6920 in what was a hectic trading session.

[Image: 2014.06.19-The-calm-after-the-storm-pic2-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

We saw yesterday a clear rejection at 1.6920 which has now turned into support, a fact which makes 1.6996 the next destination for the pair. At the moment the bullish momentum is renewed by the immediate bounce at support and it seems like the Pound is headed for new highs. A break of support would invalidate this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the CBI Industrial Order Expectations are announced and anticipated to rise from 0 to 3. The indicator is a survey that asks British manufacturers to rate the expected volume of orders during the next three months and usually expectations above 0 indicate optimism and strengthen the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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#89
FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN MANUFACTURING AND US HOUSE-MARKET DATA AHEAD

EUR/USD


Forex News: The main trend Friday was bearish, partially generated by a light overbought state of the market. There were no important economic releases and price action was relatively smooth.

[Image: image0014-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Price failed to finish the trading day below 1.3585 and the bulls have been showing some pressure lately, stopping the bearish momentum at 1.3520. However, neither bulls nor bears are in clear control and today’s direction will be determined by price behavior around the current level of interest (1.3585). A bearish break will make 1.3520 the next target while a bounce higher will most likely take the pair back into 1.3640 resistance zone.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is announced but no change is expected from the previous value of 49.6; half an hour later the German Manufacturing PMI is released and expected to change from 52.3 to 52.7. Both are leading indicators of economic health based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Euro.

The United States will release at 2:00 pm GMT the Existing Home Sales numbers which are expected to increase from 4.65M to 4.74M. The indicator has a slightly greater importance than the New Home Sales (will be released a day after) because existing homes represent the majority of total sales. Higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair retraced lower, a normal behavior, considering the extended move upwards and the overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index; however, the bears didn’t manage to break important levels.

[Image: image0033-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The move south seen Friday is considered just a retracement, not a reversal; a good place for price to start moving upwards again is 1.6996 which was previous resistance and now may become support. A bearish break of the mentioned level would indicate that high prices become harder and harder for bulls to sustain and would weaken the current uptrend, making 1.6920 the next medium-term destination. Resistance now sits at 1.7063.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic indicators today and price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect and by the US data mentioned above.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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#90
FOREX NEWS: EURO CONFINED IN A RANGE, POUND WEAKENED BY DOVISH COMMENTS

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had another difficult to trade day as price first climbed and then dropped below the opening price on the back of better than expected US economic data. Currently the support at 1.3585 is being re-tested from above but the pair is in a ranging state.

[Image: 2014.06.25-Euro-confined-in-a-range-Poun...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price action continues to trade sideways and all moves in one direction are quickly reversed. The current level of 1.3585 is important for short term movement and a break would open the door for additional sellers to enter the market and to take the pair into the more important support located at 1.3520. Minor resistance sits at 1.3640 – 1.3645 but the market is ranging and we are neutral until an important level is breached.

Fundamental Outlook

Two important US events represent today’s headlines: at 12:30 pm GMT the Durable Goods Orders are announced with a negative change anticipated, from the previous 0.6% to -0.1%. At the same time the Final version of the Gross Domestic is released and although its impact is lower than the Advance GDP, volatility can still be generated as the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge. The expected change is -1.7%while the previous was -1.0%. Lower numbers for either indicator can determine a weakening of the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened throughout the day against the US Dollar as Mark Carney showed a dovish attitude towards a potential rate hike and dampened any speculation that BOE will raise rates sooner than anticipated.

[Image: 2014.06.25-Euro-confined-in-a-range-Poun...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The potential support level at 1.6996 was easily broken yesterday on the back of Pound weakness generated by Carney’s comments and now it seems like the pair is headed for 1.6920 support. Before that happens, a re-test of 1.6996 is very probable. If this re-test is successful and price bounces lower, the chances of a reversal will increase and resistance will be located at 1.6996 once again. Throughout the day keep an eye for an oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index on the four-hour chart.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic data so price action will be mainly influenced by the technical side and by the US events mentioned above.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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