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GDMFX - Daily News
#71
THE FOREX MARKET: APPROACHING SUPPORT LEVELS – A GOOD PLACE FOR TREND RESUMPTION

EUR/USD


The Forex Market: Yesterday’s price action was mixed and rather ranging until the release of the FOMC meeting Minutes which generated a move lower which was not characterized by a strong or immediate continuation.

[Image: 2014.02.20-Approaching-support-levels-a-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index was cleared by yesterday’s move lower but now an encounter with the level of 1.3710 is very probable. If this touch occurs, price is likely to bounce higher, continuing the latest bullish momentum. Moves below 1.3710 would indicate that the power of the bulls is fading and would make 1.3650 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 08:00 am GMT the German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released, with an almost insignificant decrease being anticipated: 56.4 from the previous 56.5. The indicator is derived from the opinions of managers from the manufacturing sector and it’s a leading sign of economic health so better numbers strengthen the Euro. At the same time the French Manufacturing PMI is released and it’s anticipated to increase from the previous 49.3 to 49.6. Later in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the US will announce the Consumer Price Index which is the main inflation gauge and usually strengthens the US Dollar if higher than anticipated values are posted. Today’s expected value is 1.6% while the previous was 1.5%.


GBP/USD

Before the FOMC Minutes, the pair tested 1.6665 support zone once again but bounced higher and the FOMC Minutes failed to trigger a break of support or a significant move higher.

[Image: 2014.02.20-Approaching-support-levels-a-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

If the bearish impulse generated by yesterday’s US events cannot take price below 1.6665, we are likely to see higher prices. The pair already tested this support twice and didn’t succeed to break it so another failed attempt would increase the probability of uptrend resumption. Moves lower will shift the medium term balance of power in the favor of the bears only if 1.6600 is broken.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the United Kingdom announces the Industrial Order Expectations which are expected to increase from the previous -2 to 6, a fact which would fuel bullish movement but the indicator tends to have a mild impact on the market. Of course the US Consumer Price Index will directly affect the pair’s movement.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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#72
FOREX NEWS: BANK HOLIDAYS INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SLOW PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD


Forex News: A weaker than forecast value of the German Ifo Business Climate combined with an increased number of New Home Sales in the United States created bearish price action Friday and took the pair below 1.3650 support.

[Image: image0014-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The European Parliamentary Elections which took place Sunday are likely to influence today’s price behavior but the direction or the extent of their impact is hard to determine. The Relative Strength Index on a Daily chart is showing a mildly oversold condition and this increases the chance of moves north. If this is the case, 1.3650 will most likely act as resistance, followed by 1.3700.

Fundamental Outlook

Today US Banks will be closed due to Memorial Day and no economic data will be released. As for the Euro, the only event that can affect it is the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi. He is scheduled to speak at 8:00 am GMT in Portugal, at the European Central Bank Forum. Strong moves will be generated, especially if the President will speak about ECB’s next step regarding monetary policy.


GBP/USD

Both Thursday and Friday were bearish days and we saw the pair drop all the way from 1.6920 to 1.6820. Price traveled without whipsaws until it finally reached support and volatility subsided due to the end of the trading week.

[Image: image0034-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Price showed some rejection off 1.6820 support but it looks like the bulls’ strength starts to fade away from a medium term perspective (four hour chart). The Relative Strength Index is not indicating an oversold condition so a break of 1.6820 is possible today but on the other hand, we might experience a slow day due to lack of economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

Banks in the United Kingdom will be closed today, celebrating Spring Bank Holiday; no economic releases are scheduled for the Pound. Volatility might be thin and irregular movement is a distinct possibility.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#73
FOREX NEWS: ACTION PICKS UP, BACKED BY ECONOMIC RELEASES

EUR/USD


Forex News: Volatility for the EUR/USD pair is dropping to almost record lows, making price action slow and choppy. Yesterday US Banks were closed, contributing to the type of movement we mentioned above, but overall we had a bullish day.

[Image: image0011.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair rallied yesterday to touch 1.3650 but we consider this to be just a retracement generated by the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index (Daily and four hour chart) and we believe that price cannot continue much higher. The first hurdle for the bears to overcome is the minor support created at 1.3615 while 1.3650 still holds as resistance, followed by 1.3700.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States will announce their Durable Goods Orders today at 12:30 pm GMT and the forecast is a major drop from the previous 2.9% to -0.5%. Such a drop, or any lower value, would indicate a slowdown of manufacturing activity and would weaken the US Dollar. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence will be released, with an increase anticipated: 83.2 from the previous 82.3. Confidence among consumers is often an indication of future consumer spending and better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair also had a very narrow range yesterday, mostly due to the fact that both U.S. and British Banks were closed. Bulls controlled the day but no special developments took place.

[Image: image0021.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s slow price action doesn’t offer a lot of clues regarding future direction but for the time being, the support at 1.6820 is still holding and the rejection seen here can easily take price into 1.6880 resistance once again. A break of 1.6820 would open the door for a touch of 1.6750 and maybe a full scale reversal of the long term uptrend.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Bankers’ Association will announce today at 8:30 am GMT the Mortgage Approvals (previous 45.9K; estimated 45.2K). This is a leading indicator of house market demand because normally a house is purchased with the help of a mortgage; also, houses are usually purchased in times of economic expansion so higher numbers for today’s release are beneficial for the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#74
FOREX NEWS: FOCUS SHIFTS ON THE UNITED STATES AS EUROPEAN BANKS TAKE A BREAK

EUR/USD


Forex News: German Unemployment rose during the previous month as shown by yesterday’s release, helping the bears to break 1.3615 minor support. Almost the entire day was controlled by sellers and it seems like the bulls’ power is waning almost completely.

[Image: 2014.05.29-Focus-shifts-on-the-United-St...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The Euro is weakened lately by disappointing economic data and by speculation that ECB might cut rates on their next meeting; all this tilts the balance in favor of the bears and we consider that further downside movement is in order. The first support and target for the pair is 1.3560 and we consider it can be touched today but a lot depends on the US data that is due for release.

Fundamental Outlook

German and French banks are closed today due to Ascension Day so European economic releases will lack completely. However, an important US event takes place: the release of the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product which usually has a hefty impact on the US Dollar and can strengthen it if better values are posted. The event is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected figure is -0.6%, a decrease from the previous 0.1%. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Pending Home Sales are announced and expected to decrease from 3.4% to 1.1%; if this decrease comes true, the US Dollar will suffer because the housing market is an important part of the US economy.


GBP/USD

The Pound was affected yesterday by speculation that an interest rate hike is still far away but the technical aspect also played an important role in the sharp drop which broke through support.

[Image: 2014.05.29-Focus-shifts-on-the-United-St...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The bears dominate medium and short term momentum and extended moves to the downside have a high chance of happening. Nonetheless, we must pay attention to the oversold condition showed by the Relative Strength Index and must be wary of retracements higher which are likely to occur after such a sharp drop as the one experienced yesterday. With that in mind, our bias is negative and we anticipate a touch of 1.6680 support while the previous important support (1.6750) might turn into resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is another day which lacks important economic releases for the Pound so price direction will be influenced by the US events and by the technical aspect.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#75
FOREX NEWS: AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RETRACEMENTS BUT OVERALL BIAS REMAINS NEGATIVE

EUR/USD


Forex News: The American Gross Domestic Product showed economic slowdown by posting yesterday a value of -1.0%, lower than analysts’ forecast and lower than the previous value. This damped the market’s appetite for the US Dollar and bearish movement came to a stop.

[Image: 2014.05.30-An-increased-chance-of-retrac...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Although the Dollar was negatively affected by the GDP release, the bulls didn’t manage to make substantial advances and 1.3615 wasn’t broken to the upside. The pair moved slow yesterday, in a 40 pip range, a fact which doesn’t offer a lot of hints about future direction, but since the bulls couldn’t break 1.3615 even if disappointing data came out for the greenback, the pair will most likely resume downwards movement, making another attempt to touch 1.3560.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 6:00 am GMT the German Retail Sales come out with an anticipated change of 0.4% compared with last month’s -0.7%. Sales made at a retail level represent the major part of overall German consumer spending and higher values usually strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The bears’ momentum was hindered by disappointing US data and as a result, yesterday’s price action was mixed, with some reversals which were difficult to trade, especially on the lower time frames.

[Image: 2014.05.30-An-increased-chance-of-retrac...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.6750 that occurred two days ago tipped the balance of power clearly in favor of the bears and today or in the days to come we are likely to see more downside movement. The Relative Strength Index is still in oversold territory and this increases the chances of bullish movement but a touch of 1.6680 is very possible.

Fundamental Outlook

The entire week has been slow in terms of economic releases for the Pound and today is no exception as no indicators are released. Price action will be mainly affected by the technical aspect of the market.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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#76
FOREX NEWS: INFLATION AND MANUFACTURING DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the bulls made their presence known by taking the pair into 1.3650 resistance. The move was mostly triggered by technical reasons, backed by market indecision due to the approaching of the ECB rate decision.

[Image: 2014.06.02-Inflation-and-Manufacturing-d...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

For the last couple of weeks the pair’s movement has been sluggish and low volatility was present. The move north seen Friday is not considered an attempt of the bulls to take control of the pair, but rather just a normal retracement in a slow downtrend. If the pair travels above 1.3700, it would signify that bulls still have underlying power and would open the door for further upside movement, but until that happens, the medium term downtrend is intact and we are likely to see a touch of 1.3585.

Fundamental Outlook

Germany will announce today at 12:00 pm GMT their Consumer Price Index. The CPI is the prime measurement of inflation and for today’s release a change of 0.1% is anticipated, while the previous value was -0.2%. Higher German inflation is considered beneficial for the entire Euro Zone and hence, for the single currency itself. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing PMI is released and the anticipated value is 55.7, compared with the previous 54.9. Better numbers suggest optimism among purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and usually boost the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher Friday but the move was not generated by surprise announcements or by economic data and instead we attribute it to technical reasons.

[Image: 2014.06.02-Inflation-and-Manufacturing-d...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index signaled in advance a possible bullish move and now price is sitting above the important 1.6750 level. If the bears can manage to take the pair quickly back below this level, the chance of an encounter with 1.6680 support will increase. Otherwise, we are likely to see a touch of 1.6820 in the near future.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to decrease almost insignificantly from the previous 57.3 to 57.1. A bigger decrease than expected would negatively affect the Pound and would allow the pair to travel south. The US indicator mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair as well.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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#77
FOREX NEWS: INFLATION DATA CLOSELY WATCHED AS THE ECB RATE DECISION APPROACHES

EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro was affected yesterday by a worse than expected German Consumer Price Index while the US Dollar benefited from a slightly better Manufacturing PMI, facts which triggered a slow but bearish day.

[Image: 2014.06.03-Inflation-data-closely-watche...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook


For the time being 1.3650 resistance is holding as seen from yesterday’s bounce lower. The pair continues to have a small range but we are still favoring moves to the downside and a break of 1.3585 en route to 1.3560. It seems like market participants are waiting for the ECB decision regarding the Interest Rate and maybe until it is released, we will not see strong, unidirectional movement.

Fundamental Outlook

Euro Zone’s Consumer Price Index is released today at 09:00 am GMT and it could be the only reason for increased volatility. As mentioned on other occasions, the ECB is closely watching inflation levels as they are highly correlated with the Interest Rate decision. Today’s forecast is 0.7%, no change from the previous value but a higher number will most likely be beneficial for the Euro.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI showed a value that came close to analysts’ forecast and the impact on the pair was light but price traveled below 1.6750 nonetheless.

[Image: 2014.06.03-Inflation-data-closely-watche...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action was sluggish but some bearish pressure can be seen through the fact that 1.6750 was broken again. This shows that bulls cannot sustain higher prices and that bears might continue downwards price action, with the first target being 1.6680. However, today’s direction might be affected more than usual by British economic data.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI is announced and it’s expected to increase from 60.8 to 61.2. The indicator is based on the opinion of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector and acts as a leading sign of optimism and economic health so better than expected numbers are beneficial for the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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#78
FOREX NEWS: PRICE CONFINED IN A TIGHT RANGE. BREAKOUTS ARE EXPECTED

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair bounced between support and resistance yesterday, following a lower than expected Euro Zone Consumer Price Index value. The session was mostly dominated by the bulls but for the time being, speculation about the ECB decision has a high impact on the market.

[Image: 2014.06.04-Price-confined-in-a-tight-ran...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.3585 is still holding and the same is true for the resistance at 1.3650 as we are experiencing the almost perfect example of a ranging market. Even if support or resistance is broken today, an extended move in the direction of the break has a low probability of occurring as traders seem reticent to commit to either side of the market. The economic data released throughout the day will most likely have a hefty impact.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is the first day of the G7 Meetings which are attended by central bankers and finance ministers from the member states. Depending on the matters discussed (which include the Russian – Ukrainian crisis), increased volatility is likely to be present. At 12:30 pm GMT the ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released, showing changes in employment numbers. The report is released by a privately owned company and tries to mimic the Government issued data which comes out 2 days later. The estimated figure is 217K while the previous number is 220K and usually, higher values are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Construction PMI showed a disappointing value yesterday and reversed an early rally which took price above 1.6750 resistance.

[Image: 2014.06.04-Price-confined-in-a-tight-ran...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Price is hugging the level of 1.6750 and movement is slow, especially for a major pair. This price action holds no clues for future direction and the same applies to the Relative Strength Index which is moving sideways. Of immediate interest is the current level of 1.6750 and probably the first strong move away from it will dictate the next short term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the United Kingdom releases the Services PMI which is a leading indicator of economic health focused on the services sector and based on the opinions of purchasing managers. The expected value is 58.3, a decrease from the previous 58.7 and higher values usually strengthen the Pound. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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#79
FOREX NEWS: A CRUCIAL DAY FOR THE SHARED CURRENCY: ECB EXPECTED TO CUT THE INTEREST RATE

EUR/USD


Forex News: The market lacked direction yesterday on the back of mixed economic data released by the United States and as a result neither 1.3650 nor 1.3585 was broken. Trading was difficult on the lower time frames and a lot of direction changes took place.

[Image: 2014.06.05-A-crucial-day-for-the-shared-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Indecision still governs the pair’s movement and market participants are holding back, waiting for today’s ECB decision regarding the Interest Rate. The major levels to watch are 1.3650 as resistance and 1.3560 as support, followed by 1.3480. Today’s direction will be highly affected by the event mentioned above and the technical side of the market will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

Without a doubt the day’s main event is the ECB interest rate decision which is scheduled at 11:45 am GMT and the Press Conference that follows 45 minutes later. The rate is expected to drop from 0.25% to 0.10%, a fact which will most likely be perceived as bearish for the single currency and will generate a huge fall. During the Press Conference, Mario Draghi’s attitude will be closely watched by market participants and his answers to the journalists’ questions will most likely trigger additional movement.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Services PMI released yesterday showed a value very close to analysts’ forecast but the impact favored the bulls who managed to reverse a previous drop and to take the pair into 1.6750 once more.

[Image: 2014.06.05-A-crucial-day-for-the-shared-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook


If the pair is going to continue the ranging movement, we are likely to see another bearish move which will encounter support at 1.6700 and at 1.6680. Yesterday’s break above 1.6750 couldn’t be continued by bulls so neither side of the market is in clear control. Today’s fundamental scene will play a very important role and will overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce their Interest Rate but no change is expected from the current 0.50%. A surprise change is not likely and this means that volatility will be increased just briefly. However, whipsaws can occur so we recommend caution if trading at the time.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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#80
FOREX NEWS: ECB CUTS RATES. FOCUS SHIFTS ON THE US NON FARM PAYROLLS

EUR/USD


Forex News: The ECB decided yesterday to cut the interest rate to 0.15% and made a historical move by becoming the first central bank to introduce a negative deposit rate of -0.10%. Following a sharp drop which touched 1.3500 zone, the Euro erased losses and traveled the entire distance back up.

[Image: 2014.06.06-ECB-cuts-rates.-Focus-shifts-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair’s reaction to the ECB decision is surprising and some analysts speculate that Euro dropped too far, too fast and this fact triggered the consequent move up. However, this is just speculation and the fact remains that ECB introduced a negative deposit rate and dropped the interest rate to 0.15%; these factors are likely to weaken the Euro during the next period and the first lower target is 1.3560 followed by the lowest point reached yesterday: 1.3502.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the US Non Farm Employment Change which is considered the most important report regarding job creation in the United States. The impact on the market is a huge one almost always, because employment levels are highly correlated with consumer spending which represents a major part of overall economic activity. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and a drop is forecast, from the previous 288K to 212K.


GBP/USD

Bank of England left the Interest Rate unchanged, as expected and overall we experienced a bullish day although price made an attempt to break 1.6750 to the downside but failed.

[Image: 2014.06.06-ECB-cuts-rates.-Focus-shifts-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The bulls are starting to shift the balance of power in their favor and 1.6820 seems to be the first upside target. On an hourly chart the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory, a thing which increases the chance of bearish moves but does not nullify the possibility of a break of resistance. Support remains strong at 1.6750.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom has a slow day ahead in terms of economic data but the US employment report will have a hefty impact on the pair and we expect strong movement to be generated by its release.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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