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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: PULLBACKS IN AN UPTREND. A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO BUY?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears and the uptrend is now going through a retracement that brought the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

[Image: rJPItrN.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After several failed attempts to move above 1.0770, the pair dropped through 1.0710 support and through the 50 period EMA, putting the short term control in favour of the bears. The next target is the support at 1.0650 but it must be noted that a significant low was not yet formed so the pair is still in an uptrend. If today price will return above the 50 EMA, we will probably see uptrend resumption with 1.0770 as first destination.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Dollar will be affected today by two important indicators: the first is the Advance Gross Domestic Product, which is considered the economy’s main performance gauge and the second is the Durable Goods Orders, an indicator that shows changes in the value of purchase orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years. Both indicators are released at 1:30 pm GMT and values above forecast usually strengthen the currency. The GDP is expected to show a 2.1% change while the Durable Goods Orders have a forecast of 2.7% change.


GBP/USD

Although the pair is in a clear uptrend, yesterday it showed a bearish day, retracing lower to the last level of importance. This was a much needed “breather” and overall the bulls remain in control.

[Image: MoqdDrn.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current move down should be considered a retracement in an uptrend and not a reversal, meaning that probably the bulls will step back in and take price higher again. The level at 1.2550 acts as support and is already showing signs of rejecting price higher; the first bullish target is the resistance located at 1.2675, created yesterday. If the current move south continues, we don’t expect it to extend below 1.2480 and the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases for today, so the pair will be affected by the U.S. events mentioned earlier and by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: KICKING OFF THE WEEK WITH GERMAN INFLATION DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: After a close encounter with support, the pair started to move higher Friday; part of the US Dollar weakness was generated by a disappointing GDP figure: actual 1.9%, anticipated 2.1%.

[Image: GNcj9rr.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The uptrend is slowing down as shown by the failed attempts to move past 1.0770 but the sellers seem to lack the strength to break 1.0650. Also, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, indicating that the pair might be entering a ranging period. The levels to watch today are 1.0710 as resistance and 1.0650 as support but if neither is broken early, we may get a choppy session.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index is released; this is the main gauge of inflation and can strengthen the Euro if it posts a higher change than the forecast -0.5% (previous 0.7%). German economy is an important pillar of the entire Eurozone and this is the main reason why the indicator usually has a strong impact on the single currency.


GBP/USD

Friday the bears took control of price movement and the pair dropped below support but no major advances were made after that; from a short-to-medium term the pair is still in an uptrend.

[Image: G0go3SG.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After breaching 1.2550 to the downside the bears lost steam and price started ranging in close vicinity of the mentioned level. Neither side is in clear control of short term price movement but the bearish retracement might extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, where we expect the buyers to step back in and take the pair higher; 1.2480 is also close to the 50 EMA and together will form a confluence zone which will be tough to break.

Fundamental Outlook

The British economic calendar is light today, without any notable economic releases, thus the pair’s direction will be mostly influenced by the technical side.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STRIKES BACK. THE END OF THE UPTREND?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s German inflation data disappointed by showing a -0.6% change and this contributed to a session dominated by the bears. Support was breached but most of the Euro losses were erased later in the day.

[Image: DHOkYi0.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair has now descended below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the medium term uptrend seems to come to an end. However, the last four hour candle is showing a long tail, which is a clear sign of rejection so the support at 1.0650 is not decisively broken yet. This means that we could see a resurgence of the uptrend and if the bulls can keep price above 1.0650, we will probably see an encounter with the 50 period EMA. If the pair doesn’t move above this dynamic resistance, we will probably see more downside movement.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:00 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at a conference in Frankfurt, organized by the European Central Bank and the European Commission. His speeches are always a potential reason for increased volatility, thus caution is recommended.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding economic and business conditions and job availability. A number higher than the forecast 112.6 shows optimism and usually strengthens the greenback.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s session belonged to the bears who managed to take the pair almost 100 pips lower, below immediate support and into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

[Image: 8rXvwlp.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is facing a strong support zone created by the confluence between 1.2480 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the bears manage to break this zone, it will be a testament of their strength, so we expect to see further downside action if that happens (possibly into 1.2420); on the other hand, a bounce higher from here would show that the bearish move was just a retracement in an uptrend and will likely mean that 1.2550 will be tested again.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light day ahead in terms of economic releases, thus the main focus will be on the technical aspect and on the U.S. consumer survey.
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FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON A WEAK US DOLLAR: FED RATE DECISION AND FIRST LOOK AT U.S. JOBS DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: Early during yesterday’s session the pair moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the rest of the day belonged to the bulls on the back of a weak US Dollar. Part of the weakness was due to a worse than expected U.S. Consumer Confidence survey (actual 111.8, forecast 112.6) but also comments made by U.S. President Trump.

[Image: Lfe35ep.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price surpassed 1.0770 resistance and is now testing 1.0800, which is an important technical resistance but also an important psychological level (round number). We expect to see a bearish retracement soon but now the uptrend is renewed and the US Dollar doesn’t show any signs of recovering soon, so after the said retracement, we expect the pair to move above 1.0800, into 1.0850.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a very important day for the US Dollar as we take a first look at U.S. jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, scheduled at 1:15 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 165K compared to the previous 153K. The indicator tracks changes in the number of employed people, excluding Government and the farming industry. A higher number is beneficial to the US Dollar but the impact is not as big as the Non-Farm Payrolls released later this week.

At 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release their Statement containing the rate decision and the reasons that determined the decision; more importantly, the document may contain hints about the next rate hike and if this is the case, we will likely see increased activity on all USD pairs. The rate is currently set at <0.75% and is not expected to change today.


GBP/USD

After an almost perfect bounce at 1.2420 the Pound strengthened and the pair begun to move to the upside, generating a trading session controlled almost totally by the bulls.

[Image: t1BehPB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is approaching the minor resistance at 1.2600 and once it gets there, we expect to see some sort of retracement lower considering that yesterday price travelled a long distance straight up, without any pullbacks. Overall the bias is bullish, with a weak Dollar, a strong Pound and price trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average after a strong bounce at support. The levels to watch today are 1.2550 as potential support and 1.2600 as immediate resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is released today at 9:30 am GMT, with an anticipated value of 55.9; this is a survey of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector, which acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Usually numbers that surpass expectations strengthen the Pound but the impact is not always huge.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES ITS LOSING STREAK, FOCUS SHIFTS ON POUND FOR INFLATION REPORT AND BOE RATE DECISION


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar got a boost from a much better than anticipated ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (actual: 246K, forecast: 165K) but the Fed kept the rate unchanged and the FOMC Statement didn’t offer any hints about a March hike so the greenback weakened and the pair climbed.

[Image: 0xcD9Gc.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After attempting to break 1.0800 resistance the pair took a dive and came close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the FOMC Statement weakened the US Dollar and now rejection is present. The pair is in an uptrend, trading above the 50 EMA and the greenback is surrounded by a negative sentiment so we expect to see another attempt to break 1.0800 resistance; if the barrier is surpassed, the pair will likely touch 1.0850.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Slovenia at a conference organized by the European Central Bank and Bank of Slovenia. The main topic is Slovenia's 10th anniversary of the adoption of the single currency but we cannot anticipate the impact on the market; however, as always when he speaks, caution is recommended because volatility may surge.


GBP/USD

The pair pushed above immediate resistance yesterday before the Fed event, which brought more weakness for the US Dollar, thus making the entire session bullish and testing the high at 1.2675. 

[Image: CTDZGtc.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action confirmed that 1.2550 has now turned into support (price touched it from above and immediately bounced higher) so we can expect this level to reject falling price in the future. Currently the pair is testing the high at 1.2675 and once it’s broken, we expect to see a climb into 1.2725, where a retracement is likely to happen because price traveled a relatively long distance and the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought. If 1.2675 is not broken, the first target will become 1.2600.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will release their Inflation Report, containing economic and inflation projections for the next 2 years and at the same time the interest rate is announced. No change is expected but the event usually creates volatility on Pound pairs; also, half an hour later, at 12:30 pm GMT, BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the Inflation Report and this is another reason for increased volatility.
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FOREX NEWS: ENDING THE WEEK ON A HIGH NOTE WITH U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had another bullish day yesterday and broke through resistance but action clearly slowed down and now signs of rejection are present. Draghi’s speech went mostly unnoticed and did not generate substantial movement.

[Image: xf3hXmB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.0800 was breached yesterday but the pair slowed down soon after moving past the level. However, we maintain our bullish bias and still anticipate a touch of 1.0850, where a deeper retracement will occur but the overbought condition of the Stochastic must be noted; although this is a lagging indicator, it warns of a potential pullback so we don’t exclude a drop into 1.0770. Today’s price direction will be mostly influenced by the fundamentals, which will overshadow the technical side.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important U.S jobs data of the month is released today at 1:30 pm GMT: the Non-Farm Payrolls (also known as the Non-Farm Employment Change). The report tracks changes in the number of employed people and acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending (people with jobs tend to spend more). The forecast is a change of 170K and higher numbers usually generate US Dollar strength; volatility is almost always high at release and price action may be irregular.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened substantially yesterday, after the release of the Inflation Report and Carney’s press conference. Support was broken and now the pair is testing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

[Image: aKiFEg2.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After the failed attempt to break 1.2675 the pair dropped to touch the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but it must be noted that an uptrend is still present so at the moment this is considered just a retracement. If the 50 period EMA is broken and then a lower high is formed, the uptrend will be in serious jeopardy and we may see a full scale reversal; the current level at 1.2550 is support and in confluence with the moving average it will create a strong barrier.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is released, showing opinions about business conditions and the overall health of the sector; the anticipated number is 55.8 and higher values strengthen the Pound but the highlight of the day will be the NFP release, which will directly affect the pair.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR WEAKENS DESPITE ENCOURAGING NFP REPORT. MORE EFFECTS STILL TO COME?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls posted a figure of 227K, while the forecast was 170K; however, another report showed that hourly earnings have decreased compared to the previous month and this triggered a mixed reaction, weakening the US Dollar overall.

[Image: TjSS9fh.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Friday the pair bounced perfectly between 1.0710 support and 1.0800 resistance and now it has printed a lower low as well as a lower high, a pattern that may indicate a reversal to the downside. However, the bias remains mostly neutral as long as price is trading between 1.0800 and 1.0710. We expect a choppy session, with the pair ranging between the two mentioned zones.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Factory Orders are released today at 7:00 am GMT and although this is not a high impact indicator, it is today’s only notable one. It measures changes in purchase orders and acts as a leading indicator of production, with higher values strengthening the Euro; today’s forecast is a change of 0.6% while the previous was -2.5%.


GBP/USD

The pair slowed down Friday and remained in a relatively tight range, capped to the downside by 1.2480 and to the upside by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Most of this indecision was created by the mixed U.S. employment data. 

[Image: IDShp1H.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is clearly trading below the 50 period EMA after a drop from 1.2675 resistance zone, but the support at 1.2480 is doing a good job at hindering downside movement. Once and if this barrier is broken, we expect to see a touch of 1.2420 but the oversold condition of the Stochastic mustn’t be overlooked (although this is a lagging indicator), so we expect a bounce up if the mentioned support is reached. To the upside, 1.2550 is the first target and place where price is likely to bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by any important economic indicators, so the technical side will prevail.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ‘BACK WITH A VENGEANCE’. KEY SUPPORT AHEAD


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar erased all the losses incurred Friday and the pair slipped below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, reaching support. Most of the session was controlled by the bears and the uptrend seems to have hit a dead end.

[Image: 8yGAcOA.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is showing rejection at 1.0710 support and is currently trading below the 50 period EMA after a failed attempt to renew the uptrend. Signs point towards a break of 1.0710 and a consequent move into the zone near 1.0650, however, a bounce higher here is not out of the question and would open the door for another shot at 1.0800 zone. As long as price remains below the 50 EMA, our bias is slightly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. Trade Balance is released, showing the difference in value between imported and exported goods. The indicator has a medium impact usually, but higher numbers would strengthen the US Dollar because exports and currency are directly linked (the buyer must purchase the domestic currency). Today’s forecast is -45.0B, while the previous value was -45.2B.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s session belonged to the bears who scored a major victory by breaking 1.2480, a level that had stopped last week’s downside movement.

[Image: V3OjGWk.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Short term price action is controlled by the bears and we will probably see an encounter with 1.2420 support, which is a key level for medium term movement. It must be noted that last time when the pair reached the level, it jumped higher immediately and also the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are approaching oversold territory, thus increasing the chance of a bullish pullback. If the pair breaks 1.2420, the extent of the move should be limited and followed by a retracement.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is light, without any major releases so price direction will be mainly determined by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: POUND NULLIFIES LOSSES. IS THE EURO NEXT?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar continued its assault on the Euro yesterday and the pair dropped in close vicinity of support. Overall the session was bearish, with very little buyer presence.

[Image: We6ocjP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The US Dollar has regained short term control and is dragging the pair lower, aiming for 1.0650 support. Once it gets there, we expect to see a climb closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but not above 1.0700 zone of resistance; the oscillators are approaching oversold, thus increasing the chances of a bullish pullback. Although lately the pair is controlled by the bears, we must acknowledge the uptrend that is still present, so we cannot exclude a sudden jump above 1.0700.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Commission will release today the forecasts for the next 2 years regarding economic expectations but the exact time is not yet known. This is not a high impact event but usually a hawkish stance generates Euro strengths and takes the pair higher.


GBP/USD

The pair dropped for the main part of the session but all the move was erased in the afternoon and now price is trading back above support after a strong rejection.

[Image: 1w6eqkN.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.2420 support proved short lived and price reversed sharply before reaching 1.2325 support. The Stochastic was already oversold and moving up, while the Relative Strength Index just reached oversold before the bounce and these were early signs of a potential move north. The current situation is fuzzy but we expect the climb to extend into 1.2480 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average where the next direction will be decided.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major events scheduled for the Pound or the US Dollar today so the technical aspect will prevail.
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FOREX NEWS: THE BALANCE OF POWER SHIFTS AGAIN. INDECISION TAKES OVER


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday was a slow day on the fundamental scene but the pair didn’t lack action and showed a perfect bounce at support, followed by a touch of resistance. It remained capped and a breakout didn’t occur.

[Image: FVrHNLg.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is bouncing between 1.0650 support and 1.0710 resistance and so far we don’t have a clear winner. If the current move extends past 1.0710, it will encounter the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the way it will behave there, will probably decide the next direction. If the bulls can close a full candle above the 50 EMA, we may expect to see a resurgence of the uptrend but a bounce lower will show that the balance of power is shifting towards the short side, so we will be looking for a break of 1.0650.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the release of the U.S. Unemployment Claims, an indicator that shows how many people asked for unemployment related benefits during the previous week. Usually the impact is low-to-medium, mostly because the indicator is released every week, but higher numbers than the forecast 249K can weaken the US Dollar. The time of the release is 1:30 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

After a brief stall at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bulls took control again and now resistance is tested, with price confined between support and resistance.

[Image: OFKbTxI.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The latest impulse is bullish and the pair is now trading above the 50 period EMA, with the oscillators showing a strong momentum. However, upside action is capped by 1.2550 resistance and if this barrier is not breached early into the session, we expect a drop below the Moving Average and possibly below 1.2480 support. Overall the picture is mixed and neither side is in clear control.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 6:30 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech at the Bank of England Inclusion Reception, in London. As always, speeches of heads of central banks should be treated with caution because volatility may surge, depending on the speaker’s attitude and matters discussed.
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