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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: LAST TRADING DAY OF 2016. IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION EXPECTED


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s price action confirmed that the pair is in range mode and we saw a bounce near support. Most of the day was controlled by the bulls but resistance wasn’t clearly broken.

[Image: 2GHtHZt.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price came very close to the support located at 1.0366 and bounced higher, into 1.0460 resistance without breaking it. This is typical behaviour for a ranging market and the fact that today is the last trading day of 2016 will contribute to irregular price behaviour. Our bias is neutral and we anticipate alternating periods of volatility, thus caution is recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar doesn’t hold any major indicators and price action will be mainly affected by end-of-year volatility.


GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher during the first part of yesterday’s trading session but a drop that erased most of the gains soon followed. The short term is clearly affected by the approaching of New Year’s Eve and the pair doesn’t have a clear direction.

[Image: tdYtG2k.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Recent price action established 1.2200 as short term support and it seems like the zone around 1.2250 is now resistance. From a longer term perspective the pair is still in a downtrend that is in need of a stronger retracement and from a short term point of view, price is ranging. Volatility and direction today will be irregular and we recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements today. We hope you had a profitable trading year and we wish you a better 2017.
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FOREX NEWS: MARKETS IN LIMBO AS NEW YEAR CELEBRATIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GLOBE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Choppiness continued Friday after a strong move up that reached resistance and bounced lower immediately after touching it. Now the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but no clear trend is in place.

[Image: vOe1KtA.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Today we will get low volume and little to no movement. Most banks across the globe will be closed in celebration of the New Year and this will also contribute to the irregular price action; spreads may increase and although this is normal during such times, we recommend careful placement of Stop Loss orders and caution overall until things return to normal.

Fundamental Outlook

As expected, today no major indicators are released and on top of that, U.S. banks are closed in celebration of New Year’s Day. This means that volume will be affected and price may behave erratically.


GBP/USD

Friday price moved and remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, completing a bullish retracement that was already anticipated for a while.

[Image: gv3Y3L6.jpg]

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we may see an extended move to the upside but from a longer term perspective, price is in a downtrend. It must be noted that the level at 1.2385 offered strong resistance and rejected price lower, so a move below the 50 EMA is not out of the question but liquidity will be thin today and this will probably generate choppy movement.

Fundamental Outlook

Banks in the United Kingdom will also be closed due to New Year’s Day, so price will probably lack a clear direction.
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FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY PICKS UP AS BANKS RE-OPEN AFTER NEW YEAR CELEBRATIONS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears and we saw the pair descend below 1.0525 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Some banks around the globe were closed due to New Year celebrations, so volume remained relatively low.

[Image: gwuKQmu.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The move below the 50 period EMA seems fragile and 1.0460 may turn into support. If this is the case, we will probably see a bounce above the moving average and possibly another test of 1.0525 but it must be noted that conditions still haven’t returned to normal so we may get a choppy trading session, with sharp reversals and irregular price movement. As long as the pair is trading below the 50 EMA, our bias is slightly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT we take a first look at German inflation with the release of their Preliminary Consumer Price Index. The forecast is a 0.6% increase from the previous 0.1% and if this prediction comes true or of higher numbers are posted, the Euro is likely to strengthen against its counterparts.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector regarding business conditions in said sector. Higher numbers than the forecast 53.7 show optimism and usually give a boost to the US Dollar but the impact is often limited if the actual number comes close to the forecast.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar strengthened against the Pound as well yesterday and the pair dropped below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, completing a bearish but choppy trading session.

[Image: TY8YY4t.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current bearish impulse might extend into the support at 1.2250 but we don’t expect this move to complete during the course of one day unless surprising developments take place. The level at 1.2325 may turn into resistance but we don’t exclude the possibility of a move above it because the trading environment is still affected by the start of the New Year and liquidity is low. Caution is still recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is released today at 9:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 53.3, almost identical to the previous 53.4. This survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health, with higher numbers strengthening the Pound but usually the impact is mild if the actual number is close to analysts’ prediction.
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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT THREATENED, US DOLLAR IN CHARGE AHEAD OF FOMC MEETING MINUTES


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar won the battle against the Euro yesterday, boosted also by a better than expected Manufacturing PMI survey. Key support is threatened and seems like volume is back after the winter holidays.

[Image: LU2NtsB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is currently testing the zone of support around 1.0366 and reached a low that was last seen in the year 2003. If the current support zone is broken decisively, price will be ‘free falling’ because there is no known support below this zone (the levels below are very old and we cannot anticipate how price will behave there). The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are approaching oversold and this may call for bullish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT. This document contains details about the latest Fed Meeting and may offer hints about future monetary policy (rate hikes more importantly); if this is the case, we will probably get a strong reaction from the greenback.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar scored a major victory against the Pound yesterday, taking the pair about 100 pips lower and reaching the support at 1.2200. British Manufacturing data was better than anticipated but this didn’t have a strong impact on price movement.

[Image: rco8OvK.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2200 is important for short term price action and we expect the pair to react to it by bouncing higher. A break of this level will open the door for a move into 1.2090, which is a key level, better seen on the Daily charts. The oscillators are still showing good downside momentum and this increases the chances of a break of 1.2200, while to the upside, 1.2250 is the first resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI is released and expected to show a value of 52.6 compared to the previous 52.8. This survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health focused on the construction sector but its impact is usually mild, with higher values strengthening the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. JOBS DATA IN THE FOCUS AS BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair bounced higher yesterday and moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average ahead of the FOMC Minutes release, which created some Dollar strength but nothing substantial. Overall the session belonged to the bulls but bearish pressure has increased.

[Image: fFJGzm4.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The climb above the 50 period EMA and above the resistance at 1.0460 seems fragile and the risks of a drop have increased due to bearish pressure. If the buyers can keep the pair above these two elements, we expect price to test the level at 1.0525 but for now the picture is blurry and a clear direction is not in place. Because the pair is mostly ranging, look for direction changes at overbought/oversold levels or at support/resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 1:15 pm GMT we take a first look at the U.S. employment situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. The indicator shows changes in the number of employed people, excluding government and the farming sector; usually the impact is lower than the Government data released Friday but nonetheless, higher numbers than the anticipated 171K (previous 216K) can strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The level at 1.2200 offered good support and the pair bounced higher immediately after touching it. The US Dollar had a mixed reaction when the FOMC Minutes were released and now the pair is showing rejection around resistance.

[Image: 7X7qpti.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After moving briefly above 1.2325 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair shows signs of rejection. Resistance is not yet broken, so if we will see today a move below the 50 EMA, it would mean that the bears are ready to take control again and this would make 1.2250 the next destination. To the upside the first target is 1.2385 if the pair moves above 1.2325 again.

Fundamental Outlook

The final British survey in this week’s series of three is released today at 9:30 am GMT: the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Just like the other two surveys, this one shows the level of optimism regarding business conditions as perceived by purchasing managers from the respective sector; values above the forecast 54.8 usually strengthen the Pound but the impact is medium most of the times.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS: THE FIRST MAJOR RELEASE OF 2017


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had a mixed trading session yesterday, moving above and below the level at 1.0525, without a clear bias. The jobs data released yesterday by the United States came below expectations and this weakened the US Dollar to some extent.

[Image: BbKYUn1.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is still governed by indecision but the latest impulse is bullish and seems like price will be trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average for another day. The first important resistance is located around 1.0650 but it must be noted that the Stochastic has entered overbought and although this is not a short signal by itself, it’s something that may be of importance for future price action. Today’s technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental and all eyes will be on the U.S. jobs data.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT the Non-Farm Payrolls will take centre stage and will influence the greenback heavily. This is considered the most important U.S. jobs data and almost always has a strong impact on the currency. The forecast is 175K (previous 178K) and higher numbers show that more jobs were created and that consumer spending and overall economic activity may increase in the near future; a higher number usually strengthens the US Dollar while a lower number weakens it.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar weakened yesterday and allowed the Pound to take the pair above resistance once again. The pair is also trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this makes our bias slightly bullish.

[Image: VggiOsj.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair moved again below the 50 EMA and quickly bounced above it; this shows bearish weakness and suggests that we may see a move higher today. The first barrier and target is 1.2385 and if that level is taken out, we expect a move closer to 1.2480 during the days to come. Another quick move below the 50 EMA would make 1.2250 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements for today so the main focus will be on the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and on the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR BOOSTED BY NFP REVISION, SUPPORT THREATENED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday showed a lower number than analysts had expected but the previous value was revised higher and this boosted the US Dollar, creating a bearish move for the pair.

[Image: HBZ3NQY.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current move down is likely to extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, where a classic ‘bounce-or-break’ scenario will play out. If the pair goes through the Moving Average, it will show that the bullish run has come to an end and that we will see further downside during the days to come; on the other hand, a bounce will take the pair back into 1.0600 territory and would open the door for a continuation of the bullish impulse started last week. 

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the Sentix Investor Confidence survey comes out and it’s the day’s only notable indicator. The survey gauges the opinions of about 2,800 investors and analysts regarding a 6-month outlook for the Eurozone but usually has a low impact on the pair; nonetheless, higher numbers than the forecast 12.6 (previous 10.0) show optimism and can strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar erased Friday almost all of the losses incurred earlier during the week and took the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A big role was played by the revision of the previous value of the U.S. NFP and now the US Dollar is showing increasing strength against its counterparts.

[Image: tB7Wu3t.jpg]

Technical Outlook

For today we expect a touch of the support at 1.2250 and a consequent bounce higher. After this possible bounce and as long as price is trading below the 50 EMA, we anticipate a break of 1.2250 and another test of 1.2200. However, a strong trend is not in place and given the lack of major news announcements today, we may get a ranging session, without clear direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today, thus price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: POUND WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY. IS EURO NEXT?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had a slow trading session yesterday, with a timid climb in the afternoon after a near-touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Part of this behaviour was due to a lacklustre economic calendar.

[Image: rLvqxPr.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is showing rejection around 1.0525 support and the 50 period EMA but the bullish momentum doesn’t seem strong and in fact price lacks a clear bias. For today keep an eye on 1.0610 as a potential upper target if the bounce gathers some momentum, while to the downside, 1.0460 will become a valid destination if the Moving Average and 1.0525 support are decisively broken.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the only notable indicator of the day is released: the JOLTS Job Openings, a report that shows the number of job openings available in the U.S., excluding the farming industry. The forecast is 5.59 Million and usually numbers above it strengthen the US Dollar because they indicate that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future. The indicator is considered medium-impact but it can generate some movement nonetheless.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar strengthened substantially against the Pound yesterday and this generated a sharp drop for the pair, which broke through 1.2200 support and renewed the downtrend.

[Image: IOp0RKo.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the pair dropped yesterday and the bears are in control for the time being, the two oscillators have reached oversold levels, warning of a potential bounce up. The last couple of candles also show long tails and this is another reason to anticipate a bullish pullback. To the downside 1.2125 is the first barrier, followed by 1.2090, while to the upside first level of importance is located at 1.2200 and as long as the pair remains below it, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic calendar for almost the entire week and today is no exception, thus the pair’s movement will be mostly influenced by the U.S. release and by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STRENGTH FADES, BRITISH MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION EYED FOR NEXT CABLE DIRECTION


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair showed mixed movement yesterday and a clear direction was not established. This behaviour can be partly attributed to the lack of economic indicators and an overall stale fundamental 

[Image: ab8Lisp.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price climbed above 1.0610, created a new short-term high and then soon dropped below resistance. This shows lack of interest and strength from the part of the buyers and makes us anticipate a drop that will probably touch the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.0525. However, the pair is still making higher highs and this means that a continuation of the medium-term uptrend is not out of the question; a quick move above 1.0610 would open the door for 1.0650 and later 1.0710.

Fundamental Outlook

We have another lacklustre day ahead, with no major indicators for either the Euro or the US Dollar, thus the technical side will prevail once again.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair remained in indecision mode and a drop below 1.2125 was quickly reversed as the US Dollar lost steam; for now the pair is stuck in a range, without a clear bias.

[Image: kFmgrOG.jpg]

Technical Outlook

From a short term perspective the Pound-Dollar is ranging and this will remain the ‘status quo’ until we see a clear break 1.2125 support or 1.2200 resistance. Rejection is clearly seen around 1.2125 and the oscillators are oversold, facts that make us anticipate a move up in the form of a bullish retracement; a good place for this retracement to end and downside movement to resume is 1.2200 but a quick move below 1.2125 would delay this retracement until 1.2090 is reached.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers will be today’s highlight and also a potential market mover. The indicator measures the change in the value of total goods produced by the manufacturing sector, with higher numbers showing increased economic activity and possibly a stronger Pound. The scheduled time is 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is 0.6% (previous -0.9%).
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR RECOVERS BUT REMAINS ON SHAKY GROUND


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday ahead of the press conference of U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump which will take place later into the session. However, the next move is uncertain and depends a lot on the things that will be said by the President-Elect.

[Image: E5kQuw9.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart and touched 1.0460; if this barrier also breaks, we expect another test of 1.0366 but at the time of writing, President-Elect Trump did not speak yet and this will be a major factor that will influence the US Dollar throughout the days to come. A sudden move above 1.0525 and the 50 period EMA will make the picture bullish again, opening the door for a break of 1.0610 and 1.0650.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. Unemployment Claims are released, showing the number of persons who asked for unemployment related help during the previous week. The indicator usually doesn’t have a strong impact on the currency but higher numbers show that more people are unemployed in the United States and this means that consumer spending is likely to decrease. The forecast for today is 266K while the previous number was 235K.


GBP/USD

The pair broke yesterday the key support at 1.2090 after an encounter with 1.2200 and an almost perfect bounce off of it. The downtrend has a new low and the bears are in control of short term movement.

[Image: RD5tvGR.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.2200 proved to be a great place for downtrend resumption and now the key support at 1.2090 is broken, making the picture bearish once again, after a brief period of ranging movement. The pair is in ‘uncharted’ territory and the last known low is 1.1062, reached on the 6th of October 2016. This level may or may not turn into support but of course it is too far to be of any importance for short and medium term movement. We expect today’s price direction to be influenced by the aftermath of Trump’s speech and we recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is another lacklustre day for Pound’s economic calendar, but the pair’s direction will be heavily affected by the US Dollar and how it responds to President-Elect Trump’s attitude.
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