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GDMFX - Daily News
#61
[Image: 10154540_435303779940302_2018021980899705072_n.jpg]

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#62
FOREX NEWS: TENSIONS IN UKRAINE. WEAKNESS SHOWN BY THE US DOLLAR

EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday was a difficult day for intraday traders as the US Non Farm Payrolls showed an improvement of the US jobs situation but the pair moved higher after an initial sharp drop. Some of this movement is attributed to heightened tensions and violence in Ukraine.

[Image: 2014.05.05-Tensions-in-Ukraine.-Weakness...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair printed a large pin bar on the support level at 1.3830 and this is indicative of a continued move upwards. The first resistance and target for the pair is 1.3900 but we must keep in mind that US employment is picking up and this may generate US Dollar strength which will be seen in the market once the Ukraine crisis calms down. If this is the case, 1.3830 will act again as support, followed by 1.3790 if a break occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro Group Meetings take place today, attended by Finance Ministers, The ECB President and other important personalities. Volatility will most likely be present until the meetings conclude so we recommend extra caution. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Non Manufacturing PMI will be released, with an estimated value of 54.3. This is a survey which shows the optimism of purchasing managers from the non-manufacturing sector and better than anticipated values can strengthen the US Dollar but the indicator usually has a lower impact than the Manufacturing PMI.


GBP/USD

A lower value of the United Kingdom Construction PMI weakened the Pound early Friday morning and took the pair lower but after the US Non Farm Payrolls release, the pair sharply climber back up, nullifying an initial bearish impulse.

[Image: 2014.05.05-Tensions-in-Ukraine.-Weakness...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook


The pair barely touched the resistance located at 1.6820 and price immediately started to move north. This shows the underlying strength of the bulls and the fact that more upwards movement is likely to occur today. However, if the pair cannot climb quickly above 1.6880, we will probably see another touch of 1.6820 support.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s banks will be closed today, celebrating May Day and no economic or financial data will be released, but the Euro Group Meetings and the US Non Manufacturing PMI will have an impact on price action.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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#63
FOREX NEWS: TIGHT TRADING RANGE. BREAKOUTS ANTICIPATED

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair remained almost flat yesterday, moving in a very narrow range. The US Non Manufacturing PMI posted a value that exceeded estimates, but its release didn’t create a lot of volatility although some strength was exhibited by the US Dollar.

[Image: 2014.05.06-Tight-trading-range.-Breakout...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s ranging price action doesn’t help to determine the next direction and for the time being, we must wait for stronger moves which will reveal if the power lies with the bulls or with the bears. If price fails to move soon above 1.3900, it would be an indication that bears are entering the market and that 1.3830 will be touched again.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s headline is the release of the US Trade Balance (12:30 pm GMT) which represents the difference between imported and exported goods. A value above zero shows that United States exports surpass imports but the current value is -42.3 billion US Dollars, a clear deficit; the anticipated value is -40.1 billion US Dollars and any figures closer to zero will most likely strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom banks were closed yesterday and the pair had similar movement to EUR/USD, trading in a small range, with some Dollar strength seen once positive data was posted by the US economy.

[Image: 2014.05.06-Tight-trading-range.-Breakout...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Today we will most likely see stronger moves and we expect another attempt to break the level at 1.6880. After the top at 1.6920 was printed, the bulls didn’t manage to take price in that area again and this may be an indication that exhaustion is present and that bears are trying to take control of the pair. If today 1.6880 is not broken decisively, the first potential target is 1.6820.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Services PMI is released by the United Kingdom and expected to increase slightly from 57.6 to 57.9. The indicator is a survey of purchasing managers from the services sector, which shows their optimism regarding business conditions so better than estimated values are beneficial for the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#64
FOREX NEWS: INTEREST RATES AND PUBLIC SPEECHES. VOLATILITY IS ALMOST CERTAIN

EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action slowed down considerably yesterday compared to the previous day and we saw a small retracement lower which didn’t manage to touch 1.3900. Janet Yellen’s speech generated some volatility but was mostly overlooked by market participants.

[Image: 2014.05.08-Interest-Rates-and-public-spe...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The picture remains bullish and moves north are favored after a touch of 1.3900. The Relative Strength Index is just coming out of overbought territory, heading down and that’s why we anticipate a touch of 1.3900 before price can resume upwards movement, headed for 1.3965. However, a lot depends on the ECB stance that will be presented today during the Press Conference.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:45 am GMT the European Central Bank will announce if any changes were made to the Interest Rate (currently 0.25%) and at 12:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a Press Conference during which he will answer journalists’ questions and will talk about future monetary policy direction. The Rate is not expected to change but the ECB Press Conference is considered one of the most important events for Euro’s short term movement so we recommend extra caution if trading during it. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify today before the Senate Budget Committee and this is another reason for increased volatility but the market’s reaction remains to be seen.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound retraced yesterday but the bearish move lacked strength and the market was mostly in a ranging state, with a lot of choppy price action.

[Image: 2014.05.08-Interest-Rates-and-public-spe...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The Pound is showing tremendous strength lately and yesterday’s bearish movement was not convincing, but a touch of 1.6920 is not out of the question. If this touch occurs, it will most likely trigger a bounce higher and the first barrier in front of rising prices is the latest top created at 1.6996, followed by 1.7040 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the Official Bank Rate which usually creates volatility even if no change takes place. The event is scheduled at 11:00 am GMT and no change is anticipated from the current 0.50%. Yellen’s testimony later in the day will have an impact as well.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
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Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#65
FOREX NEWS: A REVERSAL IN THE MAKING?

EUR/USD


Forex News: The bears took control of the pair yesterday as ECB President Mario Draghi offered clear hints about an Interest Rate cut in June if the risk of deflation still persists. His comments took the pair almost 150 pips lower after a previous climb which nearly touched the psychological resistance at 1.4000.

[Image: image0011-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Without a doubt, Mario Draghi’s stance favors the bears for the medium term outlook. Today we expect a continuation of yesterday’s move and we are biased towards a touch of 1.3830. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart doesn’t indicate an oversold condition so price can move lower before a retracement higher occurs. To the upside, the first level of interest is 1.3900.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Trade Balance (difference in value between imports and exports) will be released today at 6:00 am GMT and it’s expected to increase from 15.7B to 16.9B. Figures that surpass estimates are considered bullish for the Euro, but the indicator is not a high impact one and its release may go unnoticed by the market.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England did not modify the Interest Rate, as anticipated and the pair traded mostly sideways, without clear direction.

[Image: image0031-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved yesterday in a small range and neither bulls nor bears made clear statements of power but we maintain our belief that 1.6920 will be touched before bullish moves can occur. Once that happens, a bounce-or-break scenario will be in play: a bounce will indicate trend resumption and another encounter with the top created at 1.6996, while a break will make 1.6880 the first lower target.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing Production numbers are released today at 8:30 am GMT. Manufacturing is an important part of the British economy and higher values than the estimated 0.3% (previous was 1.0%) can push the Pound higher. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT, an estimate of the UK Gross Domestic Product will be announced. The current value is 0.9% and any higher number can push the pair north.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#66
FOREX NEWS: CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES STEAL THE HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN

EUR/USD


Forex News: As expected, the pair had a calm and mostly sideways trading session yesterday. The bulls didn’t manage to take price significantly higher but at least they prevented the bears form making further advances.

[Image: 2014.05.15-Consumer-Price-Indexes-steal-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Although price retraced slightly yesterday, the move wasn’t enough to clear the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index, a fact which makes further drops more difficult. Adding to this, bullish divergence is also present (price made a lower low while the RSI only printed a double bottom) so from a strictly technical perspective, moves north are in order. If these moves occur, they must be seen as retracements in a short term downtrend, not necessarily reversals.

Fundamental Outlook


Market participants eagerly await the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is Euro Zone’s main inflation gauge and the ECB is closely watching it before deciding if monetary stimulus measures will be adopted at their June meeting. The risk of deflation is present and a lower value of the CPI than the estimated 0.7% can weaken the Euro; the opposite applies for a higher value. United States’ CPI will be announced today as well, but its importance is lower than the one of the European CPI; the release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the anticipated value is 0.3%.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is perceived as a high impact indicator which shows the opinions of manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding economic and business conditions. The indicator is released at 2:00 pm GMT with an expected figure of 13.9, a decrease from the previous 16.6; higher values are considered bullish for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD


The Bank of England Inflation Report was less hawkish than expected and no hints about a near-future rate hike were given. The market perceived this as a dovish attitude of the BoE and as a result the pair had another bearish trading session.

[Image: 2014.05.15-Consumer-Price-Indexes-steal-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair pierced through the support located at 1.6820 and even touched 1.6750. We expect bullish moves today even if the control belongs to the bears and we base this opinion on the fact that the current move is reaching an overextended phase and the Relative Strength Index is constantly touching the 30 level. Resistance sits at 1.6820 and if a touch of this level occurs, price is likely to bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook


The Pound has a calm day in terms of economic data releases so price action will be mostly affected by the technical aspect and by the US indicators mentioned above.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#67
FOREX NEWS: A CALM END TO A WILD WEEK?

EUR/USD


Forex News: The data released yesterday was mixed but more hints about a rate cut emerged as ECB officials signaled that the Bank is preparing a package of monetary policy measures. The Euro dropped but later in the day it managed to erase all Dollar gains, creating a massive reversal.

[Image: 2014.05.16-A-calm-end-to-a-wild-week-pic1-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

It looks like the bulls have renewed their interest for the pair, a fact which is normal considering the oversold condition of the market and the bullish divergence present on the four-hour chart. Once this retracement is complete, we expect price to resume downwards movement for another break of 1.3700 en route to 1.3640. The first level of interest that could provide resistance is located at 1.3745.

Fundamental Outlook

The greenback will be affected today by the release of the US Building Permits, an indicator which shows changes in the annualized number of permits issued during the preceding month. An increase suggests a thriving economy, considering that houses are usually built in times of good economic conditions. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the estimated number is 1.01M compared to the previous 1.0M.
The last important indicator of the week comes out at 1:55 pm GMT: the US Consumer Sentiment. This is a survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending and has the ability to strengthen the US Dollar if better numbers than the anticipated 84.7 are posted.


GBP/USD

The bears unsuccessfully attempted yesterday to break the support at 1.6750 but the bulls managed to finish the day higher, on the back of US Dollar weakness.

[Image: 2014.05.16-A-calm-end-to-a-wild-week-pic2-1024x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s bullish move can be seen as a retracement in a short term downtrend but from a Daily chart perspective, we are still in an uptrend and the pair just touched the uptrend line drawn from November last year. In other words, the picture is not clear and different time frame charts say different things. What is certain is that support is still holding at the moment and the confluence zone created by the uptrend line and 1.6750 will be tough to break but if price moves below it, the bears will score a major victory.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a calm day ahead as no major indicators are released by the United Kingdom; price direction will be influenced by the technical aspect and by the US events.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#68
FOREX NEWS: WEIDMANN’S SPEECH – THE SINGLE HIGHLIGHT OF THE DAY

EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday price moved in a small range and neither bulls nor bears managed to make a clear statement of power. US economic data was mixed but it didn’t have a major impact on the pair.

[Image: 2014.05.19-Weidmanns-speech-the-single-h...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Lately the pair is moving above and below 1.3700 but if the bulls will manage to reverse the short term downtrend seen last week, the minor resistance that was created at 1.3730 will be the first barrier they need to break. To the south, first support sits at 1.3640 but the chances for it to be broken today are slim, considering the fact that usually Mondays are slow days, especially if no major economic data is released.

Fundamental Outlook

The only event which can trigger strong movement today is the speech of German Bundesbank President Weidmann which is scheduled at 7:00 am GMT. He will speak at a Symposium organized in Frankfurt and if he reveals hints about the ECB’s next move, the market will react strongly as he is believed to be one of the most influential members of the ECB Governing Council.


GBP/USD

The last day of the previous week was almost entirely controlled by the bulls and price traveled to touch the resistance at 1.6820. A disappointing figure for the US Consumer Sentiment played an important role in Friday’s climb.

[Image: 2014.05.19-Weidmanns-speech-the-single-h...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair finished the week right on 1.6820 level but for the moment we cannot know for sure if this was due to price resistance or simply because the trading week ended and the market closed. This question will probably be answered today and we will see if 1.6820 has turned into resistance or if price will continue towards 1.6880. To the downside, 1.6750 remains strong support for the time being.

Fundamental Outlook

We expect slow price action today since there are no important American or British economic releases, but maybe Weidmann’s speech will have a ripple effect which will influence this pair as well.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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#69
THE FOREX MARKET: APPROACHING SUPPORT LEVELS – A GOOD PLACE FOR TREND RESUMPTION

EUR/USD


The Forex Market: Yesterday’s price action was mixed and rather ranging until the release of the FOMC meeting Minutes which generated a move lower which was not characterized by a strong or immediate continuation.

[Image: 2014.02.20-Approaching-support-levels-a-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index was cleared by yesterday’s move lower but now an encounter with the level of 1.3710 is very probable. If this touch occurs, price is likely to bounce higher, continuing the latest bullish momentum. Moves below 1.3710 would indicate that the power of the bulls is fading and would make 1.3650 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 08:00 am GMT the German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released, with an almost insignificant decrease being anticipated: 56.4 from the previous 56.5. The indicator is derived from the opinions of managers from the manufacturing sector and it’s a leading sign of economic health so better numbers strengthen the Euro. At the same time the French Manufacturing PMI is released and it’s anticipated to increase from the previous 49.3 to 49.6. Later in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the US will announce the Consumer Price Index which is the main inflation gauge and usually strengthens the US Dollar if higher than anticipated values are posted. Today’s expected value is 1.6% while the previous was 1.5%.


GBP/USD

Before the FOMC Minutes, the pair tested 1.6665 support zone once again but bounced higher and the FOMC Minutes failed to trigger a break of support or a significant move higher.

[Image: 2014.02.20-Approaching-support-levels-a-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

If the bearish impulse generated by yesterday’s US events cannot take price below 1.6665, we are likely to see higher prices. The pair already tested this support twice and didn’t succeed to break it so another failed attempt would increase the probability of uptrend resumption. Moves lower will shift the medium term balance of power in the favor of the bears only if 1.6600 is broken.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the United Kingdom announces the Industrial Order Expectations which are expected to increase from the previous -2 to 6, a fact which would fuel bullish movement but the indicator tends to have a mild impact on the market. Of course the US Consumer Price Index will directly affect the pair’s movement.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#70
FOREX NEWS: A FULL DAY AHEAD – VOLATILITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair finally decided to move with some determination and as a result, the level of 1.3700 was broken decisively. Volatility increased and hopefully it will remain this way.

[Image: 2014.05.22-A-full-day-ahead-volatility-i...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.3700 and the fact that price touched 1.3650 make the picture bearish once again, but for the short term downtrend to be renewed, we need to see a clear break of 1.3650 support. If this occurs, the next hurdle is located at 1.3560, followed by 1.3480. Medium term movement seems to favor bears more and more but we expect bullish price action once the Relative Strength Index moves below its 30 level.

Fundamental Outlook

The French and German Manufacturing PMIs are released today at 7:00 am GMT and 7:30 am GMT respectively. Both are surveys which ask purchasing managers to rate the current and future business conditions and are leading indicators or economic health; better than estimated values usually strengthen the Euro. The consensus for the French PMI is 51.1 while the German PMI has an anticipated value of 54.0.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales will be released, offering insights into the American house market. Although this is regarded as a high impact indicator, its effect can be mild at times, mostly depending on the difference between the expected value and the actual one. Today an increase is forecast, from the previous 4.59M to 4.71M.


GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened substantially on renewed speculation that a rate increase might occur in the near future and on the back of a much better than expected value of the Retail Sales (forecast 0.4%, actual 1.3%).

[Image: 2014.05.22-A-full-day-ahead-volatility-i...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

After the initial bullish impulse generated by the things mentioned above, the pair’s momentum started to fade away and price retraced lower. Immediately after the resistance at 1.6920 was touched, price reacted and this increases the importance of this level for short term movement; if 1.6920 resistance is broken, the door for a touch of 1.6996 is open and the uptrend may be renewed. For the time being, the most important support is located at 1.6820.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product is announced today at 8:30 am GMT but is expected to remain unchanged from the current 0.8%; if this is the case, the release will have a mild impact but any changes can generate strong moves because the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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