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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR IN TOTAL CONTROL. SMALL PULLBACKS ANTICIPATED


EUR/USD


Forex News: U.S inflation numbers that came out yesterday matched analysts’ expectations (0.2% change) so the release didn’t have a strong impact but the pair continued to descend yesterday, mostly due to the Fed hike. 

[Image: xbOibTG.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair broke 1.0460, which was the lowest point reached since 2015 so now we could say we are in uncharted waters because the current level was last seen in 2003. The bears are in clear control and we expect further downside movement in the medium term but the oscillators have reached oversold and price travelled a long distance without a retracement. The level at 1.0460 may act as resistance for such a pullback but overall we expect price to move lower.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Final CPI is released, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase. The indicator acts as a measure of inflation but the Final version is the least important; nonetheless, higher numbers than the forecast 0.6% can strengthen the Euro but to a limited extent considering the current situation.

On the US Dollar side we have the U.S. Building Permits, released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show 1.24M, slightly lower than the previous 1.26M. The indicator is a measure of activity in the housing sector and higher numbers can strengthen the currency but the impact is usually mild.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept the rate unchanged and the British Retail Sales matched the forecast so the Pound wasn’t much affected. The US Dollar continued to strengthen and the day ended significantly lower.

[Image: 90mut0U.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The huge drop seen over the last couple of days is likely to continue until 1.2385 support is touched but we may see a retracement higher soon, due to the overextended condition of price. The oscillators have entered oversold and warn of such a possible pullback but after this move is completed, we expect the pair to continue lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today but the pair will be directly affected by the U.S. Building Permits.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: BUYERS FIGHT BACK, US DOLLAR STILL HYPED BY FED BOOST


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair retraced higher Friday but movement was slower compared to the previous days. The bears are in control but an extended move up is not out of the question.

[Image: fAj0cx7.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After hitting the low at 1.0366 price moved higher to test the recently broken support at 1.0460 but for now it looks like the level is holding and may turn into resistance. If this is the case, we expect to see another drop closer to 1.0366 but a move above 1.0460 will open the door for a touch of 1.0525. However, as long as the pair is trading below 1.0525 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight is the release of the German IFO Business Climate, a survey of about 7,000 businesses that tries to gauge the optimism of respondents regarding a 6 month outlook on economic conditions. The time of the release is 9:00 am GMT and the expected value is 110.7, slightly higher than the previous 110.4.


GBP/USD

Friday was a better day for the Pound, which strengthened against the greenback after an almost perfect bounce at support. The economic calendar was light so the bounce can be mostly attributed to the technical side.

[Image: aq7rnnY.jpg]

Technical Outlook

It looks like the pair has found good support at 1.2385 as seen from Friday’s price action, so we can expect this level to be of importance for future direction. Currently the pair is testing 1.2480 zone but rejection is present as shown by the long wick of the penultimate four-hour candle; also, the US Dollar is still strengthening so it’s very likely to see a resumption of the bearish movement from this level. As an alternate scenario, a clear break of 1.2480 will probably take price closer to the 50 EMA and the level at 1.2550.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is empty today for the Pound, so the technical aspect will be the deciding factor for the pair’s direction.
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FOREX NEWS: DOWNTREND STAGGERS, RANGE-BOUND TRADING AHEAD


EUR/USD


Forex News: The bulls didn’t manage to take the pair above resistance yesterday, although the German IFO Business Climate posted a higher reading than analysts had anticipated. The release created just a brief moment of upside movement and soon after, price took a downwards direction.

[Image: CdKSjJy.jpg]

Technical Outlook

So far the resistance at 1.0460 is holding and seems to reject price lower so we anticipate another encounter with the low at 1.0366. However, it’s possible to see the start of a ranging period, with price moving above and below 1.0460 without a clear direction. The week lacks major economic releases and Christmas is approaching so we may enter a period of irregular volatility but as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we favour the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Producer Price Index is scheduled for release today at 7:00 am GMT and expected to show a change of 0.1% from the previous 0.7%. The indicator usually has a low impact but higher numbers are beneficial for the currency and this is the only notable indicator of the day.


GBP/USD

The bears controlled most of yesterday’s trading session after a bounce at resistance. The move was mostly technical because the economic calendar lacked any major releases.

[Image: Wp2Pjog.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance zone around 1.2500 capped upside movement yesterday and now it appears like 1.2385 is broken. This support is important for short term price action, so of the bears can keep the pair below it, we expect to see a move into 1.2325 (1.2300), possibly during today’s session. A quick move above the current level will make the next direction uncertain and will probably trigger ranging movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has another lacklustre day from a fundamental standpoint as no major releases are scheduled. This will likely contribute to slow, ranging movement.
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FOREX NEWS: OVEREXTENDED MOVES CALL FOR BULLISH PULLBACKS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The German Producer Price Index released yesterday showed a slightly better than anticipated value but this didn’t do much for an already weak Euro. The pair continued its descent and pierced the low at 1.0366.

[Image: v2rLGgt.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The main direction is south but the pair is likely to retrace higher before 1.0366 support can be broken decisively. Yesterday price breached the mentioned support but this is by no means a true break yet and it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index as well as the Stochastic are approaching oversold, thus increasing the chances of a pullback north. Price action may be irregular today and the rest of the week, due to the approaching of Christmas and the lack of major economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator of the day is released at 3:00 pm GMT: the U.S. Existing Home Sales. The indicator shows the annualized number of previously owned houses (not new construction) that were sold during the previous month and a higher reading usually shows increased economic activity and a healthy house market. The forecast is 5.52M while the previous value was 5.60M.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar continued its assault on the Pound yesterday and the pair dropped to touch the next support. The economic calendar was light so the fundamental side didn’t have a major impact.

[Image: Lg9XqA4.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support around 1.2325 – 1.2300 is strong and although the main direction is down, we may see a bullish pullback from this area. The situation is similar to the EUR/USD, with both oscillators approaching oversold and price near support, so it’s possible for the pair to continue to move south but the extent should be limited before a retracement occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any notable news releases so the technical side will be the main market mover.
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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT HOLDS, DOWNTREND STILL INTACT AHEAD OF U.S. GDP


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Existing Home Sales posted yesterday a higher number than analysts’ expectations but the release didn’t have the strength to drive the pair lower and instead a bullish retracement occurred.

[Image: VBHOl8i.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The retracement was expected and so far it’s not a reason of concern for the downtrend but it’s very likely to see an encounter with 1.0460 which may turn into resistance. If the level is breached, the pair will touch the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and we expect it to reverse lower unless the US Dollar will be weakened by the economic data released throughout the day. To the downside 1.0366 zone remains strong support, while to the upside we don’t expect the pair to surpass 1.0525.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is probably the busiest day of the week, with two important releases, both scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT: the CORE Durable Goods Orders and the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (Final version). The first is a leading indicator of production that shows changes in orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years, excluding transportation items (expected change 0.2%, previous 0.8%). The GDP is the main gauge of economic performance but the Final version is the least important, so we don’t expect huge volatility at the release; nonetheless, higher values for these indicators usually bring US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Yesterday after another encounter with support, the pair jumped higher to test the resistance at 1.2385, showing choppy price action and no clear direction.

[Image: pJJIanx.jpg]

Technical Outlook

During the recent period the pair has touched 1.2325 support twice and both times it moved higher, reaching resistance. Until a clear break happens, the pair is likely to stay in range mode, bouncing between support and resistance. The downtrend is still present and the US Dollar is still strong but this doesn’t exclude a move above 1.2385 before bearish action can resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is light so the U.S. releases will be the main price mover, as well as the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: CHRISTMAS APPROACHES, CHOPPY PRICE ACTION EXPECTED


EUR/USD


Forex News: Both U.S. Indicators released yesterday posted better than expected readings but despite this, the pair continued slowly higher, reaching resistance.

[Image: jsDkBwh.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is testing the resistance level at 1.0460, in very close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. These two types of resistance (horizontal and dynamic, respectively) represent a confluence zone that will be tough to break by the buyers but on the other hand, a break would show bullish strength, indicating that price is likely to extend higher. The next target and possible barrier is located at 1.0525, while to the downside, 1.0366 remains a key level.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. New Home Sales numbers are released today at 3:00 pm GMT and this will be the only notable indicator of the day. The forecast is 575K and values above this number show increased activity on the house market; usually this strengthens the US Dollar but to a limited extent. The approaching of Christmas will probably trigger irregular volatility and choppy price action, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The pair slid lower yesterday and touched the support at 1.2325 once again in a short while. It’s safe to say that until support or resistance is broken, the pair will be in range mode.

[Image: 0pJ3aOZ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bears are struggling to break the support zone around 1.2325 but the move lacks steam and the Relative Strength Index has been moving very close to its oversold level for a long time. This increases the chances of a bullish bounce from the current level but the pair is trapped between 1.2385 resistance and 1.2325 support so we consider it in range mode until it moves outside the mentioned levels.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected by the release of the Current Account and the British GDP, both scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The Current Account shows the difference in value between imports and exports (expected to show -28.3B), while the GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance (forecast 0.5%) and higher values for these indicators usually strengthen the Pound.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: LOW VOLUME, IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION AS THE WINTER HOLIDAYS TAKE OVER


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the pair moved slightly higher but didn’t break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and price action was choppy, which is normal before Christmas when trading volume starts to dim.

[Image: fLwbuFA.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The 50 period EMA is still preventing the pair from going higher and 1.0460 resistance is still intact. This means that we are dealing with a ‘bounce or break’ scenario where a bounce would take price closer to 1.0366 and a break would make 1.0525 the first target but many countries celebrate the Winter Holidays, so liquidity, volume and price action in general will be affected. Our bias is neutral and we recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

German banks are closed today in observance of Boxing Day and Italian banks are closed due to St. Stephen’s Day. Also US banks are closed, celebrating Christmas Day so we expect a day without much movement and probably irregular price action.


GBP/USD

Although the Pound benefited from positive economic data released Friday, the pair descended during the first part of the day but bounced at support and erased most of the earlier losses.

[Image: xvkn3Fj.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are exiting oversold territory and this favours an extended move up that may have 1.2325 as destination. The level at 1.2250 is still considered support although it was breached Friday, so we may see another attempt to break it during the days to come. For today our view is neutral considering that volume and volatility will be affected by the Winter Holidays.

Fundamental Outlook

UK banks are closed today in observance of Boxing Day and no economic indicators are released. We recommend caution because price behaviour will be uncertain.
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FOREX NEWS: ACTION RESUMES, VOLUME STILL AFFECTED BY WINTER HOLIDAYS


EUR/USD


Forex News: As expected, the pair reached a stalemate yesterday and no major developments took place, due to the Winter Holidays.

[Image: g9Z90Z3.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is flat and yesterday’s trading session doesn’t hold any information about future direction. We expect the pair to continue with its irregular movement and volume will still be affected. Our bias is neutral and we recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released, showing the opinions of 5,000 households about current and future economic conditions. The expected figure is 108.9 and usually, higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar, but given the current low volume, we don’t know what the exact impact will be.


GBP/USD

There wasn’t much action yesterday and the pair remained between support and resistance, with little to no volume.

[Image: ATTRlrZ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Given the current situation, our bias is neutral until volume returns to normal or at least until action picks up. The pair is in a downtrend that seems overextended so we expect some sort of retracement sooner rather than later. The levels to watch remain 1.2250 as support and 1.2325 as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

UK banks will be closed, celebrating Christmas Day and no economic indicators will be released. We recommend caution because price action will still be affected.
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FOREX NEWS: MARKETS IN INDECISION MODE AS END OF YEAR APPROACHES


EUR/USD


Forex News: Throughout yesterday’s trading session the pair remained in a very tight range, with almost flat price action. The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey showed a better than anticipated value but this didn’t have a strong impact on the US Dollar.

[Image: swWmQbY.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is still clearly affected by the Winter Holidays and is moving sideways, lacking any clear direction. Volume is still low and volatility can become irregular, meaning that price may jump to one direction or the other without warning. Caution is still recommended until a clear direction emerges; the levels to watch are 1.0460 as resistance and 1.0366 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Pending Home Sales are released today at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to show a change of 0.6% compared to the previous 0.1%. This is considered a medium impact indicator that shows changes in the number of homes under contract to be sold and usually a higher value strengthens the US Dollar but given the current low volume, its release may go mostly unnoticed.


GBP/USD

The bears took the pair lower yesterday and tested support once again but without a clear break. The picture is still blurry and the pair is in range mode.

[Image: Hh3YRaw.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair shows bearish pressure as price is trying to push below 1.2250 support but as mentioned before, the Relative Strength Index has been moving very close to oversold for a long while. This suggests that a bullish pullback is about to occur, but given the current low volume, we cannot anticipate when this will happen. Caution is still recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so the only highlight will be the U.S. indicator that comes out in the afternoon.
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FOREX NEWS: DOWNTREND RESUMPTION OR END-OF-YEAR FAKE-OUT?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair picked up speed yesterday and dropped after a brief climb above resistance. The U.S. Pending Home Sales did not have a strong impact and price started to move lower before the release.

[Image: Dcqhovm.jpg]

Technical Outlook

If the current bearish momentum continues, we are likely to see another attempt to break 1.0366 but keep in mind that lately the pair has been in ranging mode, so it’s very possible to see a quick reversal that will test the 50 period Exponential Moving Average again. The chances of a move up are increased by the Relative Strength Index approaching its 30 level and suggesting that the pair is becoming oversold again.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release of the day is the U.S. Unemployment Claims, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The indicator tracks the number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits during the previous week but because it’s released weekly, its impact is not huge; however, a higher number than the forecast 277K can weaken the US Dollar because it may indicate a drop in consumer spending in the near future.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s session belonged to the bears and the US Dollar strengthened against the Pound allowing the pair to drop below the support at 1.2250 which rejected price almost perfectly so far.

[Image: IggMTWq.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2250 acted as a key level over the last period and now it may turn into resistance for future price action. The Relative Strength Index is hugging its oversold level for a long while and this means that a retracement is about to occur; the first target for this potential move up is the mentioned level (1.2250), followed by the 50 EMA. Keep in mind that the pair is still in a downtrend but also that volume and volatility are not completely back to normal.

Fundamental Outlook

Same as the rest of the week, UK’s economic calendar is light so we expect price direction to be influenced mainly by the U.S. release mentioned above and by the technical aspect.
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