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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: NFP TO MAKE-OR-BREAK US DOLLAR’S TREND?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair remained between support and resistance and this goes to show that both sides are reluctant to commit to a clear direction. In the afternoon the U.S. Manufacturing PMI posted a better than expected value and this brought limited greenback strength.

[Image: dIBBSHj.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.0570 rejected price higher but bullish momentum stopped at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This is typical behaviour for a ranging market so our view is mostly neutral until 1.0570 support or 1.0650 resistance is broken decisively. However, the pair is in a downtrend from a longer term perspective so we slightly favour the short side but keep in mind that today’s U.S. jobs data will overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important U.S. employment data of the month comes out today at 1:30 pm GMT: the Non-Farm Payrolls (also known as Non-Farm Employment Change). The indicator tracks changes in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and usually generates very strong movement but the pair is prone to sudden changes of direction, observed better on the lower time frames. A higher change than the forecast 165K usually benefits the US Dollar and brings the pair lower.


GBP/USD

The pair finally broke out of the horizontal channel yesterday and the bulls managed to drive it into the next resistance. The move was mostly based on Pound strength, not necessarily Dollar weakness.

[Image: DCiZopB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance around 1.2480 is now clearly broken but we can see rejection at the next resistance, located at 1.2675. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are now both overbought due to the long distance travelled yesterday and this combined with the long upper wick of the latest candle, suggests that a bounce lower is next. If the current resistance is surpassed, we expect the bounce to occur around 1.2770.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event will definitely be the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls but on the Pound side it’s worth mentioning the release of the Construction PMI, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a reading of 52.3. Usually a higher reading indicates optimism but the impact is low if the actual number matches the forecast.

We hope you had a profitable week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SUFFERS TEMPORARY WEAKNESS


EUR/USD


The Non-Farm Payrolls numbers came out very close to estimates Friday but the previous value was revised from 161K to 147K. It’s not uncommon for this to happen but when the number is revised lower, usually the US Dollar has to suffer.

[Image: lHAX4zl.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price action remained choppy but had a bullish bias due to US Dollar weakness generated by the NFP revision. It looks like 1.0650 is now clearly broken and the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so the short term picture is bullish but not in a definitive manner. If today price remains above the 50 EMA, we expect a touch of 1.0710.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings take place today and may generate some volatility but this will be limited unless surprising discussions take place. The Meetings are closed to the press but a formal statement is released at the end of the day; sometimes participants talk to the press during the day.

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI comes out, with a forecast reading of 55.3. This is a survey of purchasing managers from outside the manufacturing sector and usually has a mild impact on the US Dollar, with higher numbers strengthening it.


GBP/USD

Friday the Pound had another great day, gaining against the US Dollar and breaking another resistance level. The bias is bullish but the oscillators are overbought.

[Image: UC4WoTR.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Friday’s climb took both oscillators in overbought territory and this makes us anticipate a minor pullback before 1.2770 is hit. The previous resistance at 1.2675 may turn into support and reject price higher; if this is the case, the chances of a push into 1.2770 will increase. A more important level is located at 1.2855 but we don’t expect it to be reached today.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI is released today at 9:30 am GMT and is the only notable Pound affecting indicator. The expected value is 54.2 and higher numbers can strengthen the currency because the survey acts a measure of optimism focused of course on the Services sector.
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FOREX NEWS: GREENBACK CONTINUES TO LOSE. OVERSOLD OSCILLATORS WARN OF RETRACEMENTS


EUR/USD


Forex news: The week opened lower but the gap was soon closed and the pair broke resistance. The move was mostly generated by the Italian Constitution Amendment Vote.

[Image: ZMSRIDC.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.0710 opens the door for an extended move into the resistance at 1.0800, which is both a psychological level and a technical level better seen on the Daily chart. However, we are not dealing with an uptrend yet so the possibility of a drop must not be overlooked. When the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic become overbought, we anticipate bearish pullbacks that will probably confirm 1.0710 as support. If this level doesn’t become support, we anticipate a drop below 1.0650.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECOFIN Meetings take place today, attended by Finance Ministers from the EU member states. The event often goes unnoticed but caution should be used because surprises can always happen.

On the US Dollar side we have the Factory Orders, released at 3:00 pm GMT but this is an indicator with a medium-to-low impact on the greenback so we don’t expect sharp moves. A higher change than the anticipated 2.5% shows an increase in production and usually strengthens the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair had similar behaviour to the EUR/USD, opening with a gap lower and then climbing above the point where the gap originated. Most of yesterday’s trading session was choppy but with a bullish bias.

[Image: FdrG4H2.jpg]

Technical Outlook

For a second time in a short while both oscillators are moving in overbought territory and this calls for a retracement to the downside. It is very likely to see a touch of 1.2770 resistance and then a drop lower but we don’t exclude the possibility of such a move occurring before that level is reached. After this potential retracement, we expect the bullish momentum to resume and 1.2770 to be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The British economic calendar is light today, without any major announcements so the pair’s direction will be mostly influenced by the technical side.
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FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS STRONG AS BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS


EUR/USD


The first part of yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bulls, who took price into 1.0800 zone; however, the pair lost steam and bounced lower once the barrier was hit.

[Image: aSSOYbY.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced lower immediately after hitting 1.0800 resistance and now we can expect the bearish move to extend into 1.0710 which may turn into support. If this level is breached, we expect a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but as long as price remains above this dynamic support, the picture is bullish and the probability of another encounter with 1.0800 is high.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s price direction will be mostly decided by the technical aspect because the United States and Europe don’t release any major economic indicators so we have a lacklustre fundamental scene for both currencies.


GBP/USD

The pair continued its climb yesterday and reached the resistance at 1.2770 but now bearish pressure has increased and a retracement is in the making.

[Image: I6H6uch.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The control currently belongs to the bulls but the resistance located at 1.2770, combined with the overbought condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index will most likely generate a move lower that is likely to touch 1.2675. If this level will turn into support and price will bounce off of it, then we can expect a break of 1.2770 and a consequent move into 1.2855, which is a level best seen on a Daily chart. These moves will probably happen over the course of several days.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers are released at 9:30 am GMT and this will be the main market mover for the Pound. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of goods produced by manufacturers and usually, higher numbers strengthen the currency because they indicate increased economic activity; the forecast is 0.2%, while the previous was 0.6%.
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FOREX NEWS: EURO STEALS THE SPOTLIGHT. ALL EYES ON ECB PRESS CONFERENCE


EUR/USD


Yesterday the pair slowed down but it is clear now that 1.0710 has become support and until that changes, the bias is bullish. The fundamental scene was quiet and this contributed to a slow session.

[Image: 744eYdK.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is angled upwards and the level at 1.0710 is confirmed as support so the short term bias is bullish and we anticipate a touch of 1.0800. If the mentioned support is broken, we can expect the 50 EMA to push price higher but a break of this barrier would suggest a reversal to the downside. Price direction will be heavily influenced by the ECB Rate announcement and Mario Draghi’s press conference so we recommend caution as the technical side will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:45 pm GMT the European Central Bank will announce their decision regarding the interest rate and although no change is expected from the current 0.00%, the event usually generates volatility. However, the pair may be unwilling to choose a direction until the ECB Press Conference takes place, 45 minutes later, at 1:30 pm GMT. During this conference, ECB President Mario Draghi will answer journalists’ questions and will talk about the reasons that determined the rate decision. It’s possible for him to offer hints about future monetary policy and if this is the case, the Euro will respond accordingly.


GBP/USD

British Manufacturing Production disappointed, as shown by yesterday’s numbers (forecast 0.2%, actual -0.9%) and this affected the Pound negatively, allowing the pair to drop into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

[Image: UrTKX2P.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After the perfect bounce at 1.2770, price moved below 1.2675 and is now testing the 50 period EMA on the four-hour chart. It’s not yet clear whether the bears can break it or not but if they do, we expect to see more downside movement, with 1.2480 – 1.2500 zone as first target. Even if price reaches this zone, we don’t expect it to travel in a straight line (we’ll probably see bullish bounces until it reaches support). On the other hand, a quick move above the 50 EMA will make 1.2770 the target once again.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t prepare any special economic releases for today, thus price direction will be decided mainly by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: EURO ON THE RETREAT ON THE BACK OF DOVISH DRAGHI COMMENTS


EUR/USD


As expected the ECB maintained the rate unchanged but during the ECB press conference that followed, the Euro started to weaken on the back of Mario Draghi’s comments that were perceived as dovish by the market.

[Image: gAP8Bgx.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The Euro took a hit yesterday and after a short lived move to the upside, the pair started to drop and broke through several support levels. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also clearly broken and the medium term bias is once again bearish as long as price remains below this technical indicator. We expect another encounter with 1.0570 and possibly 1.0525 but keep in mind that sometimes after a strong move to one side (like the one seen yesterday), a retracement soon follows.

Fundamental Outlook

Only one important economic release made it to today’s headlines: the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. This is a survey that tries to gauge the confidence of consumers in current economic conditions and usually a higher number indicates that in the future consumer spending will increase. This often strengthens the US Dollar so we may see further downside action for the pair if the actual number will be above the forecast 94.3; the time of release is 3:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the US Dollar made a nice comeback against the Pound after a bounce round 1.2675 which is now confirmed resistance. Bearish pressure mounts but the Moving Average is not yet broken decisively.

[Image: VkJFH05.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After a climb early during yesterday’s session, the pair dropped to test the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and although at the time of writing price is below it, we cannot yet consider it a true break. If the pair remains below this technical indicator, we expect to finish the week on a bearish note, with price approaching 1.2480 – 1.2500 but we don’t expect this target to be hit today. A quick return above the 50 EMA will make 1.2675 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

Price action today will be mainly driven by the U.S. Consumer survey and by the technical aspect because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: KEY SUPPORT LEVELS THREATENED AGAIN, OSCILLATORS APPROACH OVERSOLD


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the pair continued the bearish momentum started a day earlier and the US Dollar continued to strengthen against the Euro. Part of the Dollar’s good performance was due to a better than expected Consumer Sentiment survey (forecast 94.3, actual 98.0).

[Image: jUtSURM.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although lately the bears have been in control, the key support at 1.0525 is not broken, the Stochastic is oversold and the Relative Strength Index is very close to its 30 level (which indicates oversold). These factors increase the chance of a bounce higher but as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish. If 1.0525 is broken the pair will test 1.0460, which is the lowest price reached since early 2015.

Fundamental Outlook

We don’t have any major releases on today’s economic calendar, thus the main focus will be on the technical aspect. After last week’s strong movement, it’s likely to see a slow, ranging trading session.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar pair had a choppy session Friday and an early climb was soon reversed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The day ended close to where it started and no major advances were made.

[Image: uKQQ1oz.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Bullish price action found resistance at the 50 period Moving Average but the bearish bounce didn’t continue through Thursday’s low and now the pair is trading without a clear direction. The most part of last week was controlled by the bears and if they can maintain control we will likely see a move closer to 1.2480 – 1.2500 but we don’t expect this target to be reached today. A clean break of the 50 EMA would make 1.2675 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected by major economic indicators today, thus the technical side will be the main market mover.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS TEMPORARY WEAKNESS, AHEAD OF BRITISH INFLATION DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair found once again strong support at 1.0525 and bounced higher, generating a bullish trading session yesterday. There were no major news releases so price direction was mostly driven by the technical aspect.

[Image: 6kBLPIW.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Lately the level at 1.0570 doesn’t seem to have a lot of importance for price and as we can see it was breached twice without any struggle. However, 1.0525 remains a key support, while to the upside the first barrier is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Today we expect to see an encounter with this dynamic resistance and with the level at 1.0650; if that resistance zone cannot be broken, we expect to see another move to test 1.0525, otherwise the pair is headed for 1.0710 again but we favour the short side as long as price is trading below the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey is today’s main release, scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and expected to increase to 14.2 from the previous 13.8. This is a survey of about 275 German professional investors and analysts and acts as a leading indicator of economic health focused on the respondents’ 6-month outlook. Higher numbers show optimism and usually strengthen the Euro but the impact is not always very strong.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar had a slow start of the week against the Pound and the pair moved back above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on the four-hour chart. The picture is once again blurry and the pair may be entering another ranging period if a breakout is not registered soon.

[Image: BvPwJok.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is testing 1.2675 again, with both oscillators showing good upside momentum and this increases the chance of a bullish break of said level. If this is the case, we expect to see a continued move to the upside during the days to come, but if price bounces lower here, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will become the first target for today. If the moving average is broken, the next destination may be the recent low at 1.2550, which will act as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Consumer Price Index is today’s highlight for the Pound. The indicator is the main gauge of inflation and usually has a high impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it. The time of the release is 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is 1.1% (previous 0.9%).
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FOREX NEWS: TO HIKE OR NOT TO HIKE? BUCKLE UP FOR MASSIVE MOVES


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had a choppy session yesterday, without a clear direction and without much movement. The German ZEW survey disappointed and this initially weakened the Euro to a limited extent but the losses were soon erased.

[Image: 8xHcEvk.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is still struggling to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.0650 and control doesn’t clearly belong to either side. This type of behaviour is likely to continue today until the Fed announce their rate decision and the technical aspect will be secondary. The levels to watch are 1.0650 (current resistance), 1.0700 and 1.0525; be prepared for irregular movement and increased volatility.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a crucial day for the US Dollar as the Fed will announce their decision on the interest rate. The forecast is an increase to <0.75% from the current <0.50% and if it comes true, we can expect to see massive US Dollar strength and increased volatility. The FOMC Statement is released at 7:00 pm GMT and will contain the outcome of the rate decision as well as insights into the reasons that determined it.

Half an hour later, at 7:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference during which she will answer journalists’ questions and will offer more details about monetary policy. The entire cluster of events will probably create irregular movement so we recommend caution until things calm down.


GBP/USD

British inflation improved as shown by yesterday’s CPI release (actual 1.2%, expected 1.1%) and this strengthened the Pound, taking the pair above resistance.

[Image: gZs02MF.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.2675 is now broken so we can expect to see a move closer to 1.2770 but in case price drops through the recently broken level, we will likely see an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Stochastic is overbought and this increases the chances of a move lower but it is not a clear indication that price will drop today. Keep in mind that the Fed Meeting will have a strong impact on the US Dollar and thus on the pair.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Claimant Count is released, showing changes in the number of people who asked for unemployment related help. The indicator acts as a measure health for the UK jobs market that can strengthen the Pound if it posts a lower number than the forecast 6.2K. Later in the afternoon the pair will be heavily influenced by the Fed Meeting.
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FOREX NEWS: FED HIKES AND DOLLAR STRENGTHENS. BUT FOR HOW LONG?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Ahead of the Fed release the pair moved almost completely sideways, as most traders were waiting for the announcement. The Fed decided towards a raise to <0.75% and also mentioned that 3 more hikes should be expected during 2017; the US Dollar responded by strengthening and the pair slipped lower, touching support.

[Image: mDY8HmR.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.0650 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average continued to reject rising price and now the pair is testing the support at 1.0570. If this level can be broken, we expect to see a drop into 1.0525 and even lower, towards 1.0460. The US Dollar is surrounded by a positive sentiment and will likely continue to strengthen during the days to come but at the moment, the pair’s direction is still not clear so we cannot exclude a sudden move up.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 1:30 pm GMT we take a look at U.S. inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index. Under normal circumstances, a higher change than the forecast 0.2% strengthens the US Dollar but given yesterday’s events, we may get a mixed reaction from this release.


GBP/USD

The British Claimant Count Change showed that less people applied for unemployment related benefits last month and this strengthened the Pound early during yesterday’s session. However, the Fed rate hike nullified all the gains and took the pair below the 50 period EMA.

[Image: xB9CwBh.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The latest impulse is bearish and the US Dollar is gaining against most of its counterparts, so we anticipate a touch of 1.2550 in the short term and possibly a move below 1.2480 during the days to come. However, if the pair will reverse and move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, this scenario will be invalidated and 1.2675 will become the first bullish target.

Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the day for the Pound is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT in the form of the British Retail Sales. This type of sales represents a major part of the entire consumer spending and a higher number shows increased economic activity; the forecast is a change of 0.2% and usually numbers above it strengthen the currency.

At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate (no change expected from the current 0.25%) and will release a Monetary Policy Summary that contains details about the reasons that influenced the rate decision. More importantly, the Summary may contain hints about future rate changes and if that’s the case, we expect the Pound to react strongly.
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