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GDMFX - Daily News
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FOREX NEWS: DEEP OVERSOLD LEVELS CALL FOR BULLISH PULLBACKS


EUR/USD


The pair completed another bearish session Friday and the Dollar continued to strengthen against most of its counterparts. The pair is now approaching long term support but pullbacks are due.

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Technical Outlook

The move that started with the U.S. Presidential Election is overextended, as price has travelled a long distance without a proper retracement. On a Daily chart we can clearly see that the pair didn’t have a bullish day since the Election, so it’s probably time for a move north; the oscillators have been trading below or very close to their oversold levels and this further increases the chances of bullish action. That being said, keep in mind that the overall bias is still bearish so we are likely to see a touch of 1.0525 zone soon. To the upside, the first level to watch is 1.0665, followed by 1.0700 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 4:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify in Strasbourg before the European Parliament about the European Central Bank's Annual Report. Whenever heads of central banks testify or speak publicly, volatility is likely to surge and the currency may behave erratically so we recommend caution if trading at the time. This is the only indicator that may affect the pair, so until its release we may see ranging price action.


GBP/USD

Friday the bears solidified their control over the pair and moved it comfortably below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Support was touched and now a “bounce or break” scenario is in play but the trading week ended before we could get a clear answer.

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Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2325 was hit and price seems to react to it, so today we will probably see if we are dealing with a bounce or a break. We favor the short side, considering the US Dollar strength seen lately but the oscillators are close to oversold so we don’t exclude a bounce into the 50 period EMA. In the event of a break of 1.2325, the next target will be 1.2090 but we don’t expect it to be reached today unless surprising events take place.

Fundamental Outlook 

The Pound has a lacklustre economic calendar today, so the technical aspect will determine the pair’s direction. Slow, choppy movement is also a distinct possibility.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SURRENDERS SHORT TERM DOMINANCE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was rather slow but it had a bullish bias, as the pair started a retracement which was anticipated due to the overextended condition of price. The bearish trend is still intact for the time being.

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Technical Outlook

Although the pair moved higher yesterday, our bias remains bearish overall as the US Dollar is still going strong. The current move up is a much needed retracement that is likely to continue higher before downside movement can resume. The first potential resistance is located at 1.0665, followed by the more important 50 period Exponential Moving Average (the EMA will probably descend below 1.0710 until price gets there). To the downside, the low at 1.0570 is the first potential support and a break will mark the resumption of the downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator on today’s economic calendar is the U.S. Existing Home Sales, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 5.43M compared to the previous 5.47M (these are annualized numbers shown in a monthly format). Higher readings are usually beneficial for the US Dollar because they show a healthy house market but the effect is not always spectacular.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound strengthened without apparent reason and the pair bounced at support, moving right back into resistance. The Moving Average was surpassed and the short term control belongs to the bulls.

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Technical Outlook

The level at 1.2325 offered good support and the pair bounced perfectly off of it, breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and reaching 1.2480 resistance. At the time of writing 1.2480 is not yet broken but if the buyers can take price above it, we will probably see an extended move to the upside. The next resistance is located at 1.2675 but we don’t expect it to be touched today.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the Public Sector Net Borrowing, an indicator that shows the difference between spending and income for the government and public corporations. Lower numbers are beneficial for the Pound but the indicator often has just a mild impact. The time of release is 9:30 am GMT and the expected figure is 5.9B (previous 10.1B).
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FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES EYED FOR POSSIBLE RATE HINTS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was dominated by indecision and both sides looked reluctant to commit to a clear direction. U.S. house data was better than anticipated but the release had a mild impact.

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Technical Outlook

The pair is in ranging mode until it breaks 1.0665 to the upside or 1.0570 to the downside. The oscillators are not showing an extreme condition so they don’t offer clear signals for the time being. If the upside prevails and immediate resistance is broken, the next target will be the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if that mark is hit, we expect bearish action to resume.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT the US Dollar will be affected by the release of the Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of at least three years). The expected change is 1.2%, a strong increase from the previous -0.3% and usually, higher numbers show a thriving economy, thus a stronger US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT the Fed will release the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which contain details about the latest FOMC meeting as well as potential hints about a future rate hike. There has been speculation about a possible rate increase in December so if the Minutes point towards the same thing, the US Dollar is likely to strengthen.


GBP/USD

The bulls failed to break resistance yesterday and the US Dollar erased some of the previous losses. Movement was slower than a day before and the 50 EMA was not breached.

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Technical Outlook

If the bounce at 1.2480 can extend past the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair is likely to move into the support located at 1.2325 during the days to come. For now our bias is neutral, waiting to see if the moving average will be broken or if it will reject price higher. Today the technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental because both the US Dollar and the Pound will be affected by important releases.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the British HM Treasury will release the Autumn Forecast Statement, a document containing information about the government’s budget for the upcoming year as well as an economic outlook. The release can have a strong impact so caution is recommended.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. TRADERS STEP AWAY FROM THE MARKET FOR THANKSGIVING DAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: Before the FOMC Minutes, the US Dollar strengthened against the Euro, partly due to a better than expected reading for the U.S. Durable Goods Orders; the Minutes revealed that a hike is due “relatively soon” and this is likely to generate additional Dollar strength.

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Technical Outlook

The pair broke the minor support at 1.0570 and is now resting on 1.0525. The greenback seems to have recovered the strength from a few days ago, so we are likely to see a break of the mentioned support. If this is the case, the next major hurdle is located at 1.0460 which is the lowest point reached in 2015; however, until price gets there we may see some form of bullish pullback, especially if the oscillators will become oversold.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United States celebrate Thanksgiving Day and this will probably affect volatility; also, no major economic indicators will be released and all this may generate irregular movement throughout the day. On the Euro side the most notable release is the German IFO Business Climate survey, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to show 110.6 (previous 110.5). The survey is derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding economic conditions and usually higher numbers show optimism and bring euro strength.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued its erratic movement yesterday and the pair wasn’t much affected by the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Overall price remained in a range and didn’t threaten support but came close to resistance.

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Technical Outlook

After an initial move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, price reversed and moved back above it, showing that for the time being control doesn’t belong to either side. The latest impulse is bullish and the pair is approaching the resistance at 1.2480 but it’s not clear if the bulls will manage to break this barrier. Today’s session will be affected by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and we expect irregular movement.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow day for British economic indicators so the focus will be on the technical aspect and the pair will also be affected by the U.S. Thanksgiving Day, as mentioned before.
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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT REJECTS FALLING PRICES, US DOLLAR STILL IN MEDIUM TERM CONTROL


EUR/USD


Forex News: Thanksgiving Day brought low volatility, especially during the New York session and the US Dollar gave back some of the previous gains. The German IFO survey came close to analysts’ forecast so the release didn’t have a notable impact.

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Technical Outlook

The support at 1.0525 rejected downside momentum yesterday and now the bulls are struggling to take the pair above the resistance at 1.0570. If they succeed in doing so, we will probably see a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.0650. The day ahead lacks major economic releases and we expect a ranging session, without special developments. That being said, keep in mind that the pair is still in a downtrend and the US Dollar shows signs of strength.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a lacklustre day as far as the economic calendar is concerned so the main focus will be the technical side.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar moved without conviction yesterday, ranging between the Moving Average and the resistance at 1.2480. This behaviour was partly generated by the U.S. celebrating Thanksgiving Day and partly by the lack of British releases.

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Technical Outlook

The ranging period is likely to continue until 1.2480 resistance or the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken. When one of these events will take place, we expect price to continue moving in that direction but until a clear break occurs, our view is neutral on the pair. The oscillators are moving in the middle of their channels, lacking a clear direction and adding to the overall uncertainty.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Second Estimate version of the Gross Domestic Product is released today at 9:30 am GMT and may be a catalyst for a breakout. The GDP is the main gauge of overall economy performance, thus higher numbers than the anticipated 0.5% may bring Pound strength.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: DRAGHI TESTIFIES ON BREXIT CONSEQUENCES. EURO WILL NOT REMAIN INDIFFERENT


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s movement was choppy and without special developments. The pair remained above 1.0570 but bearish pressure is mounting and rejection candles are present.

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Technical Outlook

As you can see on the chart above, the candles show long wicks in their upper parts and this is a sign of bearish pressure. Price came close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the bulls couldn’t even manage to touch this form of resistance and the overall trend is down so we expect to see a move below 1.0570. However, keep in mind that on a Daily chart both oscillators are deep in oversold territory so a stronger move north is not out of the question, especially if the 50 EMA will be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only important event is the testimony of ECB President Mario Draghi, delivered before the European Parliament’s Economic Committee on the topic of monetary developments, economic perspective and Brexit consequences. These are all delicate subjects that may affect strongly the market, thus we recommend caution. The scheduled time is 2:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

The Second Estimate version of the British GDP, announced Friday matched analysts’ expectations (0.5% change) and the release didn’t have a strong impact. The pair remained in a tight range.

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Technical Outlook

Price is trapped between the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.2480 but the chances of a breakout are very high, especially because the distance between the two barriers is so small. Given the fact that the pair has been moving almost completely sideways lately, our view is neutral until a strong move or a clear breakout occurs. Once that happens, the pair is likely to continue in the direction of the break.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements for today and this makes the technical aspect the deciding factor for the pair’s direction.
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FOREX NEWS: A FULL DAY AHEAD: GERMAN INFLATION DATA, U.S. GDP AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY


EUR/USD


Forex News: After a brief move above the resistance located around 1.0650, the bears took control of yesterday’s session and the pair descended to touch support. The higher than usual volatility may be attributed partly to Draghi’s testimony.

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Technical Outlook

It seems like the US Dollar is trying to gain back control over the pair, pushing it lower for another attempt to break the key support located at 1.0525. The oscillators are moving downwards, supporting a bearish move and the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. As long as things remain this way, we favour the short side and anticipate a break of 1.0525.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT we take a first look at German inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index. The indicator acts as a measure of inflation, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. A higher change than the forecast 0.1% can strengthen the Euro.

The Preliminary version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product is released later at 1:30 pm GMT, with an anticipated change of 3.0% (previous 2.9%). The GDP is the main gauge of overall economic performance and usually a higher reading triggers strength for the currency.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the Consumer Confidence survey comes out, showing the opinions of U.S. citizens about economic and business conditions. A higher number than the forecast 101.3 would show optimism, acting as a leading indicator of consumer spending, and would strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro-Dollar, this pair climbed above resistance early during yesterday’s trading session but soon gave up all the gains and dropped lower.

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Technical Outlook

We can consider yesterday’s move above 1.2480 a false break, so the zone will still act as resistance in the future. The bounce lower brought the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and now we can expect a touch of 1.2325. It must be noted that the Moving Average is flat, without clear direction and the pair is still in range mode until it clearly moves above 1.2480 or below 1.2325.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases so the pair’s direction will be decided by the U.S. data mentioned earlier and by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT DATA TO REVEAL THE DOLLAR’S NEXT MOVE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Despite the multitude of economic indicators released yesterday, the pair remained relatively unfazed and stayed between support and resistance for the entire day.

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Technical Outlook

Price touched the support at 1.0570 and quickly bounced to the upside, touching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This leaves us with a bounce-or-break scenario where the 50 EMA plays the biggest role: a break would signify a short term victory for the bulls and would make 1.0650 the first target for the day, while a bounce lower will test 1.0570 support again. The next targets would become 1.0700 zone and 1.0525 but we don’t expect a break of either one unless surprises occur.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT we take another look at European inflation with the release of the Eurozone Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index (CPI). The indicator is the main gauge of inflation and can bring Euro strength if it posts a reading above the forecast 0.6%.

Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change comes out, showing changes in the number of employed people in the U.S., excluding the farming sector and government. The indicator is less important than the Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday but nonetheless, higher numbers than the anticipated 161K can strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Price action was mostly dominated by the bulls yesterday and the pair moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but for the time being, the ranging period is still not over.

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Technical Outlook

The pair moved above the 50 period EMA and above the resistance at 1.2480 but as seen a day before, price had similar behaviour and then reversed to the downside. This means that we still don’t consider 1.2480 broken and we don’t exclude the possibility of another fall through the Moving Average. The pair’s direction remains uncertain and range-bound trading is still in play.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Bank Stress Test results are revealed today and this may have an impact on the Pound but may also go mostly unnoticed. During these tests, synthetic market conditions are applied to large banks to determine their financial stability and potential risks; the time of the release is 7:00 am GMT.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR BOOSTED BY JOBS DATA, SUPPORT TARGETED


EUR/USD


Forex News: American jobs data released yesterday showed a reading of 216K, surprisingly better than the anticipated 161K and this contributed to a bounce lower after touching resistance.

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Technical Outlook

It seems like the resistance at 1.0650 is still a barrier too strong for the bulls to break and we anticipate a move that will initially reach the support at 1.0570. A possible break of this level will trigger another test of 1.0525 but price action is choppy lately so we don’t exclude another surprise climb. As long as the pair is trading below resistance and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we favour the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s most notable release is the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers that asks respondents to give their opinion on the health of the manufacturing sector. Usually a higher reading is beneficial for the US Dollar but the impact if sometimes mild, especially if the actual number matches the forecast. The time of release is 3:00 pm GMT and the expected value is 52.1.


GBP/USD

The pair moved again above the resistance around 1.2480 but the bulls failed to capitalize and price dropped below the level, just how it did a day before. Price action remained choppy, with reversals on the lower time frames.

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Technical Outlook

The fact that yesterday’s bullish breakout was false and price returned inside the channel, confirms that the ranging period is still not over and that we will see more of the choppy movement experienced during the previous days. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is almost flat, confirming that the pair lacks a clear bias. We recommend caution until a direction becomes clearer.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI is released and anticipated to show a value of 54.4, almost identical to the previous 54.3. Similar to the U.S. indicator with the same name, this survey measures optimism among purchasing managers and can strengthen the Pound if it posts higher than anticipated readings.
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