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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR IN TURMOIL AHEAD OF U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION


EUR/USD


Forex news: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report released Friday showed a number of 161K new jobs, which was lower than the anticipated 174K. This triggered a move up after some mixed action at the time of release.

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Technical Outlook

The bulls remain in control for now and we expect an encounter with 1.1150 resistance during today’s trading session. The Relative Strength Index is overbought and is showing bearish divergence: price made a higher high while the oscillator shows a lower high. This is a sign of reversal so we may see a bounce lower if 1.1150 holds. The first bearish target is 1.1100 but if this level is hit, the pair may resume bullish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings will be today’s only notable event. These are attended by European personalities from the political and financial fields but are closed to the press until they have concluded. A formal statement, containing details of the meetings is released at the end of the day but often participants talk to the press even before the end of the meetings. Volatility may be generated and caution is advised.


GBP/USD

The pair continued higher Friday, mostly due to a disappointing Non-Farm Employment report, which triggered Dollar weakness and allowed price to climb above resistance.

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Technical Outlook

The move above 1.2480 brought the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic in deep overbought territory, making us anticipate a retracement back below this level. As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish but this doesn’t exclude a pullback lower to clear the overbought condition. Once this retracement is complete, the bulls will probably move the pair higher if the Moving Average holds.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major releases for today, thus price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: VOLATILITY AND UNCERTAINTY


EUR/USD


Forex news: Yesterday the US Dollar erased some of the losses incurred during the previous days and the pair retraced closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The week opened with a gap that wasn’t yet filled completely

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Technical Outlook

The next direction depends on the result of the U.S. Presidential Election but strictly from a technical point of view, we expect a bounce higher once the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is hit. Yesterday’s retracement was expected and signalled early by the overbought condition of the oscillators as well as the presence of bearish divergence but the medium term uptrend is still in place. The levels to watch are 1.1150 as resistance and the 50 EMA as support.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United States will decide their next President and the US Dollar will be heavily influenced by the Election. Other than that, there are no other major economic indicators but we expect strong volatility and thus, we recommend caution.


GBP/USD

The pair had a bearish trading session yesterday as the greenback strengthened against the Pound. Price is now trading below the resistance at 1.2480, but still above the moving average.

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Technical Outlook

We expect an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but once and if price gets there, the chances of another push higher will increase. The 50 EMA is very close to the horizontal support at 1.2325, creating a confluence zone that will be tough for the bears to break. The US Dollar and consequently the pair will be heavily influenced by the U.S. Presidential Election.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production is released, with a forecast change of 0.5% compared to the previous 0.2%. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of goods generated by the manufacturing sector and higher values suggest increased economic activity, thus a stronger Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: THE AFTERMATH. ELECTION RACE COMES TO AN END


EUR/USD


Forex news: The United States Electoral race still didn’t have a clear winner at the time of writing and the pair remained inside a tight range for most of the day. Volatility is still expected, as soon as we come nearer to a clear result.

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Technical Outlook

The next direction still depends on the result of the U.S. Presidential Election so we cannot make an accurate prediction. For now the pair is having trouble moving away from the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and looks like both sides are reluctant to commit to a direction. The levels to watch are at the time of writing 1.1060 as immediate resistance and 1.1025 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there are no major indicators on the economic calendar but surely the U.S. Dollar will continue to be influenced by the result of the Election and volatility will be high.


GBP/USD

Despite a better than expected value for the British Manufacturing Production, the Pound weakened slightly against the greenback yesterday and the pair touched the 50 EMA ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election conclusion.

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Technical Outlook

The pair is struggling to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and probably the result of the U.S. Election will be the catalyst that will decide the next move. The current important levels are 1.2480 as resistance and 1.2325 as support, with the 50 EMA playing an important role as well. So far the picture remains blurry until a definitive election result is announced.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there are no major releases on the British economic calendar so we expect the pair’s direction to be decided by the U.S. Election results and the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: THE US DOLLAR REACTS POSITIVELY TO THE NEW U.S. PRESIDENT


EUR/USD


Forex News: The United States has a new president and the result created a strong reaction, as expected. After a spike, the US Dollar recovered and erased all losses, even advancing against its counterpart.

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Technical Outlook

It seems like the Trump win was well received by the markets and now the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, with strong US Dollar momentum. We will probably see increased volatility during the days to come, but the overall bias for the time being is bearish, so we anticipate a move closer to 1.0900 and possibly 1.0860. To the upside the first barrier is represented by the level at 1.0995.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic releases but the US Dollar will still remain under the influence of the recent events. The irregular movement may continue, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The impact of the U.S. Election was lower on this pair than on EUR/USD and overall we had a mixed session yesterday, without a clear winner.

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Technical Outlook

The pair failed to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is still trading between 1.2480 resistance and 1.2325 support. The picture remains blurry as the pair is still in a range until one of the mentioned levels is broken decisively. We may see US Dollar strength but as long as price is above the 50 EMA, our bias is slightly bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today but we may see a stronger response to the U.S. Presidential Election so the risk remains high.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES TO DRIFT AFTER SURPRISE TRUMP WIN


EUR/USD


Forex news: Yesterday the pair continued to move lower but as it was expected, movement was slower than a day before. Support was almost touched and price is now showing rejection.

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Technical Outlook

The current momentum is bearish as the US Dollar strengthened after the Election result came out but the support around 1.0860 was tested yesterday and rejection was clearly seen. Also, price travelled a long distance south without clear retracement and the Stochastic is oversold for the second time in a short while, so all this makes us anticipate a bounce higher, possibly into the resistance at 1.0950.

Fundamental Outlook

U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Veterans Day, so volatility may be affected by this; however, at 3:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey, which shows the opinions of consumers on current economic conditions. The survey acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending but the impact may be muted by the recent U.S. developments; under normal circumstances, higher values than the forecast 87.4, strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average for the entire part of yesterday’s trading session as the US Dollar doesn’t seem to be affected much by the Presidential Election. Also the session lacked any economic releases and this contributed to the ranging movement.

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Technical Outlook

The bulls are struggling to break 1.2480 resistance and if they succeed, we will probably see increased buying pressure and thus higher prices. A bounce lower from this level would show that the ranging period is not yet over and that the pair is headed for the first support, located at 1.2325. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was touched many times and offered support but price didn’t bounce strongly after touching it so its strength is fading and this increases the chance of a break if price touches is again.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the rest of the week, the Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today. Price direction will be decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. Consumer survey.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS MIXED REACTION. RANGING SESSION AHEAD


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Consumer Sentiment released Friday by the University of Michigan showed a 91.6 reading, better than the forecast 87.4. This added more strength to the US Dollar and generated another bearish session.

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Technical Outlook

The pair moved below 1.0850 support but it stopped right after breaking it, so the strength of the bears may be fading. There are small signs of rejection and the Stochastic is oversold, suggesting that we may see a pullback today. If this is the case, price is likely to climb closer to 1.0910 which is now resistance but we don’t expect a break today. To the downside the first known support is 1.0800 but we don’t believe it will be broken today either. Most likely we will have a ranging session, without a clear winner. 

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only notable event is a speech delivered by ECB President Mario Draghi at the Italian Treasury, in Rome. The scheduled time is 3:00 pm GMT but the impact on the Euro is hard to anticipate because it will depend on Draghi’s attitude and matters discussed.


GBP/USD

Despite strengthening against most of its peers, the US Dollar is not able to win the short term battle against the Pound. Friday the pair continued to move higher, with brief moments of bearish action.

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Technical Outlook

The pair created a minor resistance at 1.2675 and now the oscillators are approaching overbought. Also, both oscillators are showing bearish divergence – price is making higher highs and the indicators are making lower highs – and this suggests that we may see a move south today. If this is the case, 1.2480 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer the first support zone and we don’t expect the pair to move below it.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major indicators on the Pound’s schedule for today and this may contribute to a ranging session.


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FOREX NEWS: BUSY DAY, HIGH VOLATILITY: GERMAN GDP, U.S. RETAIL SALES AND BRITISH INFLATION DATA


EUR/USD


Forex news: The sellers remained in control yesterday and the US Dollar continued to strengthen, taking the pair into 1.0710 support. ECB President Mario Draghi didn’t make significant comments during his speech in Italy.

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Technical Outlook

The pair travelled a long distance south since the U.S. Presidential Election and although we expect the bearish behaviour to continue, a retracement to the upside is becoming more and more likely. The Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are now both oversold and price seems to react to the support at 1.0710, so the chances of a pullback have increased. After this potential pullback is complete, the downside movement will probably resume.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the Preliminary version of the German Gross Domestic Product is released and anticipated to show a 0.3% change compared to the previous 0.4%. The German economy is an important pillar of the Eurozone and the GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance so a higher reading will probably bring Euro strength.

The U.S. Retail Sales will be today’s main mover for the US Dollar. Scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT, the indicator is expected to show a 0.6% change and because sales made at retail levels are a big part of the entire economic activity, higher numbers usually generate a stronger US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair descended yesterday and breached the support at 1.2480. The session was controlled by the bears, without any important economic releases.

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Technical Outlook

Price is now attempting to break below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the support at 1.2480 but failure to do so will most likely result in another move into 1.2675 resistance. A break below the Moving Average would put control back in the hands of the bears and would make 1.2325 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s an important day for the Pound, with two major events: the first is the release of the Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The expected change is 1.1% (previous 1.0%), with higher values being beneficial for the Pound.

The second event is scheduled half an hour later, at 10:00 am GMT: the Inflation Report Hearings. During these hearings, BOE Governor Mark Carney will testify on inflation and economic outlook before the Parliament's Treasury Committee. Volatility is likely to increase and caution is recommended.
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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT IN JEOPARDY, OSCILLATORS WARN OF POSSIBLE REBOUNDS


EUR/USD


The pair retraced higher yesterday but a worse than expected German GDP combined with optimistic U.S. Retail Sales, nullified almost all Euro gains and brought the pair closer to support again.

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Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action created minor resistance at 1.0815 where we saw a pin bar (rejection candle) followed by a hefty drop. Considering this type a behaviour, we anticipate a break of 1.0710 support but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are still “dangerously” close to their respective oversold levels, so we don’t exclude the possibility of another push higher. Overall our bias remains bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only notable release is the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), an indicator that tracks changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services. The PPI has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by the producer will be eventually paid by the consumer. Today’s anticipated change is 0.3%, the scheduled time is 1:30 pm GMT and usually, higher values strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The greenback strengthened on the back of strong Retail Sales, while the British Consumer Price Index disappointed and as a result the pair dropped below the Moving Average yesterday, completing another bearish session.

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Technical Outlook

The recent drop below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.2480 will most likely bring in additional sellers that will take the pair into 1.2325 and even further into bearish territory. Moves to the upside may be capped by the 50 EMA and by 1.2480 and we expect price to resume downside movement if it reaches the zone that was just mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we take a look at the British jobs situation with the release of the Claimant Count Change, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator shows changes in the total number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits and higher numbers usually weaken the Pound; today’s expected number is 1.9K, while the previous was 0.7K
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FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR CONTINUES ITS SUPREMACY AHEAD OF FED CHAIR YELLEN’S TESTIMONY


EUR/USD


Yesterday the pair slowed down compared to a day before but the sellers remained in control despite a slightly disappointing reading posted by the U.S. Producer Price Index. Support was breached but no significant advances were made after that.

[Image: H5Oa2H4.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The oscillators are now climbing slowly but price is still going downhill. This is a sign of bullish divergence and is an early warning of possible reversals or at least pullbacks to the upside. The first resistance and target for such a potential retracement is located at 1.0760 but if the pair remains below 1.0710, it means that the level may turn into resistance and in this case, we will see a continuation of the bearish trend. 

Fundamental Outlook

It’s an important day for the US Dollar, starting with the release of the CORE version U.S. Consumer Price Index, scheduled for release at 1:30 pm GMT. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation but the CORE version excludes food and energy because these are considered too volatile; the FOMC usually pays more attention to this version and that’s why it tends to be more important for the US Dollar. Higher percentages than the expected 0.2% have the potential to take the pair lower.

At 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee, on economic outlook. The event is likely to generate increased volatility and possibly irregular movement, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The British Claimant Count Change showed yesterday a worse than expected value but the Pound wasn’t strongly affected and the pair had a choppy trading session.

[Image: b5zDiwo.jpg]

Technical Outlook

It looks like the bulls are having trouble breaking 1.2480 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the upside. This may suggest that a drop will soon follow and if this is the case, we expect the pair to find support at 1.2325. The US Dollar is gaining against most of its counterparts and the Pound is not showing clear signs of strength so we favor the short side for the time being.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are today’s headline for the Pound. Scheduled at 9:30 am GMT, the indicator tracks changes in the total value of sales made at retail levels and can have a hefty impact on the Pound, with higher numbers strengthening it; today’s expected change is 0.5%, while the previous was 0.0%.
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FOREX NEWS: ECB’S DRAGHI SPEAKS IN FRANKFURT, EURO HEADS FOR SUPPORT


EUR/USD


The CORE version of the United States CPI showed yesterday a value below analysts’ expectations and this created brief moments of bullish price action. However, most of the gains were then erased and overall we had a choppy trading session.

[Image: luxxRcB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We have a minor support, established at 1.0665 and if this level is broken, the next important one is located around 1.0525 but we don’t expect it to be reached this week. The oscillators are exiting oversold, so they are still favouring a stronger retracement to the upside, possibly into 1.0760; however, the medium term trend is still bearish so we don’t exclude the possibility of a drop through 1.0665.

Fundamental Outlook

European Central Bank President Draghi will speak today in Frankfurt at the 26th European Banking Congress and this may be a strong reason for volatility. The Euro is likely to show irregular movement during the speech, depending on how traders will interpret the things the President will say, as well as his attitude. The speech is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales released yesterday, showed a surprising improvement of 1.9% (anticipated 0.5%) but despite all this, the pair remained below resistance and had a mixed trading session.

[Image: l1U6lrD.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Despite positive British data, the pair is struggling to move above 1.2480 and remains very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This suggests that the Pound is still weak against the US Dollar and that we are likely to see a drop into 1.2325 if 1.2480 is not broken soon. Also, a decisive break of the 50 EMA would strengthen this view but as long as price remains close to the Moving Average, the pair is ranging, without clear direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major releases for the last day of the trading week so the technical side will decide today’s direction.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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