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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: BEARS MAINTAIN OVERALL CONTROL, MINOR RETRACEMENTS EXPECTED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The bears remained in control for most of Friday’s trading session and continued the momentum started Thursday during Draghi’s press conference. June’s low was taken out and this represents an important victory for the sellers.

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Technical Outlook

Price broke 1.0910 support and established a new minor level at 1.0860 but now both oscillators are oversold so we expect bearish movement to stall. The next important target is 1.0800 but we are likely to see bullish retracements until price gets there. The previous support at 1.0910 may turn into resistance but if the pair moves above it, we don’t expect 1.0955 to be tested today.

Fundamental Outlook

Eurozone’s Manufacturing and Services PMIs are both released today at 8:00 am GMT; these are surveys of purchasing managers from the manufacturing and services sectors respectively that try to gauge the opinion of said managers regarding the health of these sectors. Higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the impact is often limited; today’s forecast for the Manufacturing PMI is 52.7 and for the Services PMI is 52.4.


GBP/USD

Movement on the pair has slowed down significantly lately but price is still sliding lower, trading below resistance and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

[Image: sNJpOvh.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We expect the pair to remain below the 50 EMA and below the resistance at 1.2325 for the entire day but the latest impulse (seen on the lower time frames) is bullish, so it’s very likely to see a test of the mentioned resistance zone but even if the pair breaches it, the upside movement should be limited. To the downside, key support sits at 1.2090 but we don’t expect price to move that far.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic releases for today, thus the Pound may be in for a slow, ranging day.
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FOREX NEWS: BOE GOVERNOR CARNEY TESTIFIES ON BREXIT EFFECTS. EXPECT A STORM!


EUR/USD


Forex News: Eurozone’s Manufacturing and Services PMIs both showed higher than expected values yesterday and this triggered limited bullish movement during the first part of yesterday’s trading session. However, the pair’s movement was rather slow and without special developments.

[Image: GBZggXt.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price came close to the resistance at 1.0910 but quickly ran out of steam and now the pair shows signs that it may come down. If this is the case, the support at 1.0860 will be the first target, followed by 1.0800 but the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are close to their respective oversold levels, so we may see another attempt to break 1.0910.

Fundamental Outlook

Two important releases will hold today’s headlines: the first is the German IFO Business Climate, scheduled at 8:00 am GMT and expected to show a value of 109.6. This is a survey that acts as a gauge of optimism regarding overall economic conditions and is derived from the opinions of about 7,000 German businesses. This large sample is what makes it a well-respected indicator, with higher levels usually strengthening the Euro.

The second economic indicator of the day is the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey, released at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 101.5, lower than the previous 104.1. This is a survey derived from the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding overall economic conditions and higher numbers have a positive impact on the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair continued to move inside the horizontal channel yesterday and remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The lackluster economic calendar contributed to the ranging movement.

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Technical Outlook

The pair is building up pressure for a strong breakout but the direction of that breakout will be decided probably by speculation regarding the Brexit and by today’s testimony delivered by Mark Carney. The levels to watch remain 1.2325 as resistance and 1.2090 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:35 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. This testimony is likely to generate strong movement on Pound related pairs because the main topic is the effects of the Brexit and its economic consequences. Depending on the Governor’s attitude and answers, the Pound may react erratically so extreme caution is recommended at the time.
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FOREX NEWS: EURO STILL IN A RANGE, POUND WEAK AGAINST THE US DOLLAR


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had another mixed trading session, where the Euro initially strengthened on the back of an optimistic German IFO survey, then price dropped below support only to bounce higher later on.

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Technical Outlook

The US Dollar is showing strength against most of its peers but is reluctant to take this pair lower; however, we expect 1.0860 support to be taken out, probably today. To the upside, the pair is capped by 1.0910 resistance, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which we don’t expect to be broken today. Some form of upside movement is likely to be seen, because the oscillators are still close to their oversold levels.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead is pretty calm in terms of economic releases, with the only notable one being the U.S. New Home Sales, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show 601K, lower than the previous 609K (annualized numbers). Higher numbers show increased activity on the house market and usually strengthen the greenback but to a limited extent.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened and dropped more than 150 pips, touching the support at 1.2090 but soon bounced higher on Carney’s comments.

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Technical Outlook

It’s clear now that rejection is present near 1.2090 and that the bears lack the necessary strength to break this support, at least for the time being. For today, we expect a move up, to the zone where yesterday’s drop initiated, and maybe a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. On the other hand, a break of 1.2090 support will probably bring in more sellers. 

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today, thus price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect and by the U.S. housing data.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR LOSES GROUND AHEAD OF DURABLE GOODS ORDERS RELEASE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the bulls completed a retracement to the upside and the pair moved above 1.0910, touching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Some US Dollar weakness was generated by a lower than expected number for the New Home Sales, but nothing spectacular.

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Technical Outlook

Price action shows clear rejection at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the Stochastic is rapidly approaching overbought. This is a good place for the downtrend to resume and price to head back into 1.0860 for another attempt to break this support. If the bulls manage to close a full 4-hour candle above the 50 period EMA, we are likely to see a move closer to 1.1000 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the United States will release the Durable Goods Orders that are expected to show a change of 0.1%. Goods with a live expectancy of more than 3 years are considered “durable” and a higher value for this indicator suggests increased economic activity, which often leads to a stronger US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s price action was mostly bullish but the pair slowed down considerably compared to the previous day.

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Technical Outlook

The pair is struggling to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if the bulls succeed to do so, we will likely see a touch of 1.2325 resistance. Such a break would mean the pair is out of the horizontal channel that contained it for the last period and would make 1.2480 the next destination; otherwise, the first target is the lower part of the channel: 1.2090.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Gross Domestic Product is released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a 0.3% change, compared to the previous 0.7%. Since the GDP is an economy’s main gauge of overall performance, higher numbers usually strengthen the currency and the opposite is true for lower numbers.
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FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION AND U.S. GDP: A STRONG FINISH TO A DULL WEEK


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Durable Goods Orders didn’t have a major impact on price action yesterday and the pair remained in a relatively tight range, capped by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

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Technical Outlook

The pair approached the 50 period EMA for the second time in a short while and it looks like the bears are trying to push price lower again but currently they lack steam. The level at 1.0910 is not broken decisively but once it’s broken, we expect 1.0860 to be threatened. If the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken to the upside, the bulls will gain the upper hand for short term movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important release of the day is scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT: the Preliminary version of the German Consumer Price Index. This is the main gauge of inflation and has a strong impact on the Euro because the German economy is an important pillar of the entire Eurozone; that being said, higher numbers than the forecast change of 0.1%, can strengthen the single currency.

On the US Dollar side we have the Advance version of the Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The GDP is an economy’s main measure of performance, thus higher values than the anticipated 2.5% (previous 1.4%) usually give a boost to the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The British GDP showed yesterday a higher value than expected but still below the previous release. This created somewhat mixed movement, with the Pound strengthening initially then dropping after a bounce at the moving average.

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Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average proved once again too strong for the bulls to break so now we can expect the pair to reach the lower part of the horizontal channel, located at 1.2090. This support proved strong in the past so a break will only come if the greenback strengthens from positive economic data or the Pound weakens for various reasons. If the 50 EMA is broken to the upside, we will probably see a touch of the resistance at 1.2325.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by major news releases so the pair will be influenced by the U.S. GDP and the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION DATA KICK-STARTS THE WEEK


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s better than expected U.S. GDP was overshadowed by the reopening of the Clinton email case by the FBI. As a result the greenback weakened and the pair shot up through resistance.

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Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.0955 were both broken and now the short term bias is bullish. We expect a move into the zone near 1.1025 but we must note that the Relative Strength Index is entering overbought and the pair is still in a downtrend; this means that once (and if) 1.1025 resistance is hit, we expect a move to the downside, possibly into 1.0955 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the German Retail sales are released and expected to change 0.2% compared to the previous -0.4%. Higher values usually strengthen the Euro because sales made at retail outlets represent the major part of consumer spending, which in turn accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

At 10:00 am GMT the Flash Estimate Eurozone Consumer Price Index is released, anticipated to show a change of 0.5% (previous 0.4%). The indicator tracks changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase and usually a higher reading brings Euro strength.


GBP/USD

The Advance version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product showed a change of 2.9%, which was better than the previous (1.4%) and the forecast (2.5%). Despite all this the US Dollar couldn’t make any advances and instead weakened, mainly due to the reopening of Clinton’s email case.

[Image: c0T15Co.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair came close to 1.2090 support and bounced higher, into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but movement wasn’t very decisive. If the effect of Friday’s events will extend to today’s session, we will probably see a break of the moving average and a move closer to 1.2325 but if the pair remains below the 50 EMA, we will probably see another attempt to break 1.2090.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today and this may contribute to a slow, ranging session.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STAGES A COMEBACK, MANUFACTURING DATA EYED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The German Retail Sales disappointed yesterday by showing a change of -1.4%, worse than the anticipated 0.2% and the previous -0.3%. This stopped the Euro’s bullish advance and brought the pair back into support.

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Technical Outlook

The pair retraced yesterday into the support offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the way it behaves here will probably decide the next direction. A break of the moving average would show that the US Dollar is still strong and would open the door for a resumption of the downtrend, making 1.0910 the first target, followed by 1.0860. On the other hand, a bounce would make 1.0995 (1.1000) the first bullish target of the day.

Fundamental Outlook

Italian and French banks are closed today in observance of All Saints Day so we may see low volatility coming from the Euro. The US Dollar will be affected by the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 51.8, slightly better than the previous 51.5. Higher numbers show optimism among purchasing managers form the manufacturing sector and usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair had a pretty slow day, with a bearish bias. The lack of economic releases contributed to the low volatility and price remained below dynamic resistance.

[Image: lASQpvt.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price came very close to touching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and then bounced lower again; however, both the bears and bulls lack the willingness to take control of the pair so we expect the ranging period to continue. A break of the 50 EMA would probably bring in more buyers and take price closer to 1.2325, while to the downside 1.2090 remains the first support.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 54.6, lower than the previous 55.4. This index acts as a leading indicator of economic health, thus higher numbers usually strengthen the currency but to a limited extent.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR LOSES GROUND, FED MAY HINT TO DECEMBER HIKE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bulls almost entirely, as the Euro strengthened and pushed easily through resistance. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI matched analysts’ expectation, thus the release didn’t create US Dollar strength.

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Technical Outlook

After an almost perfect bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the pair jumped and broke through the resistance at 1.0995 and 1.1025. We expect the current impulse to continue through 1.1060 and towards 1.1100 but a lot will depend on FOMC’s stance regarding interest rates. The two oscillators are overbought for the second time in a short while and this suggests that a retracement is due in the near future.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the Non-Farm Employment Change report, which shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month, excluding the farming sector and government. Usually a higher number than the anticipated 166K strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is not as high as the NFP released Friday.

At 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release their Statement that contains their decision on the interest rate as well as insights into the reasons that determined it. The rate is not expected to change (currently <0.50%) but any hints about a December hike will strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI came close to the expected number, so the impact was mild. The pair had another dull session yesterday, without major developments.

[Image: nChDGRt.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is still confined by the channel created by 1.2090 support and 1.2325 resistance but it has moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average for the first time in a long while. This may suggest that the buyers are trying to make a run for the top of the channel but a clear bias cannot be seen. The Stochastic is overbought and this may call for limited bearish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index comes out at 9:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 51.9. Higher numbers for this indicator usually suggest optimism regarding economic conditions in the Construction sector, strengthening the Pound, but the impact is often mild.
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FOREX NEWS: FED KEEPS RATE UNCHANGED, BOE EXPECTED TO DO THE SAME


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair had a bullish trading session ahead of the Fed rate announcement and the Dollar was little changed after the release. The FOMC kept rates at the current <0.50% but a December hike is not off the table.

[Image: yNLpakd.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both deep in overbought territory and this calls for a bearish retracement; adding to this view is the fact that the resistance at 1.1100 is not yet broken decisively. However, if the pair moves clearly above 1.1100, it will probably touch 1.1150 during today’s session and once that happens, the chances of a move lower will increase. As long as price is trading above the 50 EMA our bias is bullish. 

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI is today’s only notable release that can affect the pair. This survey is derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from outside the manufacturing industry and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The announcement is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and the expected number is 56.2.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and had a bullish bias for almost the entire session. An optimistic Construction PMI added Pound strength.

[Image: 4Ar7sFP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price remained above the 50 period EMA but the bulls didn’t manage to break 1.2325 resistance and that leaves us with a bounce-or-break scenario. If the horizontal channel will be broken, we expect more buyers to join and to take price closer to 1.2480; otherwise, we expect an encounter with the moving average and possibly with the bottom of the channel during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The first major release of the day is the Bank of England Inflation Report that will offer the bank’s projections regarding inflation and economic expectations for the next 2 years. The release is scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT and at the same time the BOE will announce the interest rate (no change expected from the current 0.25%). The Monetary Policy Summary comes out at the same time, containing information about the reasons that determined the rate vote.

Half an hour later, at 12:30 pm GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the contents of the Inflation Report. All the events mentioned can have a very strong impact on the Pound, so caution is recommended.
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FOREX NEWS: ENDING THE WEEK ON A HIGH NOTE WITH NFP IN THE FOCUS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro-dollar pair retraced lower yesterday after hitting a high of 1.1125. The bulls remain in control of medium term movement and we expect further upside.

[Image: 250y1CF.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The retracement lower seen yesterday was signalled earlier by the deep overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic but as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bias is still bullish. For the moment it looks like 1.1060 offers good support and it will probably push the pair higher, through 1.1100. Yesterday’s high at 1.1125 will act as first resistance, followed by 1.1150.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s main event is without a doubt the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. This is the most important jobs related data, which shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month. Usually the impact on the US Dollar is high, with bigger numbers strengthening it. The forecast for today’s release is 174K, while the previous was 156K.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s High Court ruled yesterday that the Government cannot bypass the Parliament in triggering the Brexit and this generated Pound strength, taking the pair into resistance.

[Image: p3p09qg.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair hit 1.2480 resistance yesterday and it may pause here for a while or even come down, depending on the NFP reading. The Relative Strength Index is well above its 70 level, showing an overbought condition and this may increase the chances of a bounce lower at resistance. If this happens, the first support may be offered by 1.2325.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major releases today but the U.S. jobs data will have a direct and probably strong impact on the pair, so we recommend caution at the time of release.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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