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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES A MINOR HIT AFTER FED MEETING


EUR/USD


Forex News: Before the Fed releases the bears were in control but this changed on the back of dovish comments from the Fed Chair Yellen. The rate remained unchanged and the dollar weakened but nothing substantial.

[Image: APHxJtt.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair touched 1.1130 before the Fed meeting and bounced higher, reaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average as well as the resistance located at 1.1185. If we will see a close of a 4 hour candle above these two barriers, then we can expect a touch of the resistance at 1.1240 but otherwise the downside will prevail and we will probably see another encounter with 1.1130.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s only notable event is the speech of ECB president Mario Draghi, at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference, in Frankfurt. The time of the speech is 1:00 pm GMT and the impact is not known but usually when heads of central banks speak publicly, caution is recommended because the market may have an unpredictable reaction.


GBP/USD

The Pound wasn’t affected by major indicators yesterday and the only notable movement was seen at the time of the Fed releases. The bias remains bearish although the buyers made some advances yesterday.

[Image: BdUvLiw.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The move up is considered just a normal retracement during a downtrend and doesn’t necessarily suggest that a reversal is in the making. In fact, this retracement is a sign of a “healthy” downtrend and it can open the door for further downside movement; the first bearish target is the support at 1.2945, while to the upside, 1.3070 is the first barrier.

Fundamental Outlook

At 5:00 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a presentation in Berlin. We don’t expect the event to generate strong moves but caution is recommended nonetheless.
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FOREX NEWS: BULLS FIGHT BACK, US DOLLAR ERASES ALL WEEKLY GAINS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Traders showed buying interest yesterday and the pair climbed for almost the entire session, moving strongly above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and breaking the resistance at 1.1240.

[Image: JDHtYTB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The gains obtained by the US Dollar during the previous days were erased and now the pair has returned to a zone where it spent a lot of time ranging in the past. There is no clear trend and although the latest impulse is bullish, we can see a reversal at any time, especially now that the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are approaching overbought. These are the main reasons why we expect downside movement today, possibly into the 50 period EMA. However, if 1.1240 turns into support, we may see a touch of 1.1285.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:30 am GMT, Germany will release their Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes and although these are not high-impact indicators, they are the only notable ones for today so we may see some movement generated. The former indicator is expected to show a value of 53.2, the latter, 52.2 and higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar weakness seen after the Fed Meeting extended throughout yesterday’s trading session and the Pound bulls managed to take price above resistance, keeping control for most of the day.

[Image: I45U5Qk.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Now the pair is testing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the way price behaves here will determine the next direction. A close above the EMA will possibly trigger a move into the next potential resistance, located at 1.3175, while a bounce lower will likely take price into 1.3070 again. The Stochastic has crossed its 80 mark, showing signs of overbought and this increases the chances of a move south.

Fundamental Outlook

The entire week has been slow in terms of economic releases that can affect the Pound directly and today is no exception, thus the technical side will be the most important.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: ECB’S DRAGHI TO TESTIFY BEFORE THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT. EURO PREPARES FOR MAJOR SWINGS


EUR/USD


Forex News: German Manufacturing and Services data released Friday was mixed, with the former showing a better than expected value, while the latter disappointed. The pair dropped, then erased the loss but couldn’t surpass resistance.

[Image: 0kndXnL.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Friday we saw an almost perfect bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this shows that there’s buying interest and that price may surpass 1.1240. If this is the case, the climb may extend into the next resistance, located at 1.1285 but otherwise, 1.1185 will be the probable destination. Mario Draghi’s testimony may have a strong impact on today’s price action and it’s possible to see ranging movement ahead of the event.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a busier Monday than usual, with 2 important events: at 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate comes out, with an expected value of 106.3, little changed from the previous 106.2. This survey has a huge sample size of about 7,000 German businesses and asks respondents to give their assessment of current economic conditions as well as a 6-month outlook. Higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro.

At 3:05 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. This is a high-impact speech and depending on his attitude and answers, the event may trigger strong movement thus we recommend caution if trading at the time.


GBP/USD

Friday the bears stepped in and erased all previous Pound gains, thus confirming that the pair is in a short-to-medium term downtrend. Support is still holding for the time being.

[Image: jnMWozl.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After piercing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the pair bounced and moved 200 pips lower, breaching the support at 1.2945. This shows that we are still in a downtrend but the 4-hour candle that breached support shows a long lower wick, which is a clear sign of rejection. This is a good enough reason to believe that price is likely to climb into the zone around 1.3000 but overall, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

We don’t have anything major on today’s Pound calendar so the technical aspect will prevail.
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FOREX NEWS: TIMID ADVANCES AND INDECISION AHEAD OF U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro got an early boost yesterday from a better than anticipated German IFO Business Climate Survey (forecast 106.3, actual 109.5) and the pair managed to break 1.1240. However, volatility remained low and the pair didn’t travel a long distance in terms of pips. Draghi’s testimony was shifted one hour earlier but it didn’t have a huge impact on the Euro.

[Image: xaEMJh0.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current move is likely to extend into the resistance at 1.1285 but if the oscillators will become overbought by that time, we expect the pair to reverse and move back into 1.1240. Although the direction is pretty well defined, the distance travelled is small and this means that the move is fragile, thus a reversal is more likely; however, as long as the pair remains above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding economic conditions in general. Usually, numbers above the forecast 98.6 strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is not very high.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair moved again below the support at 1.2945 but the bears couldn’t make any substantial advances and overall we had a ranging trading session.

[Image: IUk3Aud.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced twice at 1.2915, so this level can now be considered short term support and we can expect it to reject price in the future. For today we expect bullish price action, with 1.3000 as target; this bias is given by the fact that the bears are having difficulties breaking 1.2915 and the oscillators are close to oversold, turning upwards. If 1.3000 holds or if price starts to move downwards before that level is reached, we expect a touch of 1.2880 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t prepare any major economic releases for today so the focus will be on the technical side and the U.S. Consumer survey.
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FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP: FED CHAIR YELLEN TESTIFIES


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar showed signs of strength yesterday and reversed the bullish bias of the pair, taking it below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This was in part due to a better than expected U.S. Consumer Confidence survey but the move started even before that release. 

[Image: e7bCnjl.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current move will probably reach 1.1185, which is a minor level because price showed just small reaction when it touched it in the past. The more important level is 1.1150 followed by 1.1130 but the Euro has been strong lately so we may see bounces higher at one of these levels, especially if one or both oscillators become oversold. As long as the pair remains below the 50 EMA our bias is bearish and we expect a break of support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Durable Goods Orders come out, with a forecast change of -1.0% from the previous 4.4%. This indicator has a moderate impact on the greenback but numbers above expectations usually strengthen it. The more important event is Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. She will testify on regulation and supervision before the Committee on Financial Services and we expect strong movement during the event. Caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The pair had a pretty slow day yesterday and overall price ranged but showed a slightly bullish bias, touching the resistance at 1.3000.

[Image: cSEipTb.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is in a short term range, confined between 1.3000 and 1.2945 so our bias is neutral until one of the barriers is broken. From a wider perspective, we are still in a downtrend and as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect that trend to continue so we slightly favor the downside.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we have a light economic calendar for the Pound, same as the rest of the week. Janet Yellen’s testimony will have a direct and potentially strong impact in the pair so, as always, we recommend caution.
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FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION, U.S. GDP – VOLATILITY RESTORED?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Surprisingly, Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony didn’t generate a lot of action yesterday and the pair remained confined in a small range. Support was touched and price bounced immediately but the up move soon faded.

[Image: k5SCmwu.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair remains in a range and neither bulls nor bears seem interested to take clear control and to break a notable level. The bounce seen at 1.1185 that failed to continue through 1.1240 resistance confirms the indecision we talked about. For today we expect some downside movement, following the failed attempt to break resistance but if 1.1185 is not broken decisively, we expect another move up.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT we take an early look into German inflation with the release of the Preliminary version of their Consumer Price Index. This is considered a high impact indicator and usually numbers above the forecast 0.0% change are beneficial for the Euro.

Half an hour later, at 12:30 pm GMT the Final version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product comes out, expected to show a change of 1.3% (previous 1.1%). This is an overall gauge of economic performance but the Final version is the least important so the impact may be limited; usually numbers above expectations trigger US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Yesterday we had another uneventful trading session, with price confined in a tight range. The pair moved almost sideways, between 1.3000 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

[Image: RHodtxF.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The last few four-hour candles show wicks in both their upper and lower parts, which is a clear sign of indecision but this type of behaviour is often followed by a strong breakout. The Stochastic is slowly approaching overbought and the 50 period EMA offers some resistance so far; these are bearish signs and if today the bulls cannot break the moving average, we expect a bounce lower, possibly into 1.2945.

Fundamental Outlook

Same as the entire week so far, the economic calendar for the Pound is light today so traders will turn their attention towards the technical side and the U.S. GDP.
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FOREX NEWS: BREAKOUTS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST DAY OF THE TRADING WEEK


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday both the German Consumer Price Index and the U.S. GDP showed slightly better than expected values but the impact was mild and the pair remained inside a narrow range, with relatively low volatility.

[Image: NSulxxO.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Despite the release of important economic indicators, volatility is not restored and price is still trapped inside a range that’s less than 50 pips. Resistance is located at 1.1240 and support at 1.1185, while the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is traveling flat, confirming the lack of determination from either side. Our bias is neutral until a break is confirmed but keep in mind that after a period of inactivity, usually a strong move follows.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT we take a look at the Eurozone inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index. The expected change is 0.4% from the previous 0.2% and if this number (or higher) is posted we may see increased volatility, with Euro strength. 


GBP/USD

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average appeared to be broken but the better than expected value of the U.S. GDP brought mild strength to the US Dollar and currently support is being tested. Volatility remained low and movement was mixed yesterday.

[Image: IuWdVPR.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price breached the 50 period EMA but the bulls failed to capitalize on the break and the pair returned below this dynamic form of resistance. This shows that bearish pressure still exists and, coupled with the overbought condition of the Stochastic, may bring the pair below 1.3000. However, movement remains without clear bias so we don’t exclude a move above the 50 EMA and into the resistance at 1.3070.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Current Account is today’s main event for the Pound; the indicator comes out at 8:30 am GMT and shows the difference between imported and exported goods. A higher value than the forecast -30.5B (previous -32.6) is usually beneficial for the Pound.

At the same time the Final version of the British GDP is released but this is the least important of the three (Preliminary, Second Estimate and Final) so we don’t expect major movement; however, higher values than the expected 0.6% usually strengthen the Pound.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: DEUTSCHE BANK SETTLEMENT SPECULATION DRIVES SHORT TERM PRICE ACTION


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s strong move was generated by a possible settlement between Deutsche Bank and the U.S. Department of Justice over a fine for mortgage-backed bonds. The initial settlement sum was reported to be 14 billion US Dollars but later in the day a news agency reported that the sum is likely to be around 5 billion US Dollars.

[Image: X23pNzH.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The move into 1.1150 was generated by news that Deutsche Bank is likely to pay a 14 billion USD settlement and the bounce up that followed was triggered by the announcement that only 5.4 billion USD will be possibly paid. From a technical standpoint we note that 1.1150 support rejected price higher as soon as it was touched and also that 1.1240 stopped bullish momentum. Today we will see if price stopped because it encountered resistance or simply because the trading week came to an end; if 1.1240 holds, we will likely see a move into 1.1185, otherwise we expect a climb into the zone around 1.1285.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the calendar is light for the Euro, mostly because German banks will be closed, celebrating German Unity Day.

The US Dollar will be affected by the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 50.4 (previous 49.4). This survey is derived from the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers and acts as a leading indicator of economic health, thus values above expectations usually are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair reacted to Deutsche Bank news Friday but the effect was almost opposite: the pair initially climbed, just to fall soon after, erasing all gains.

[Image: cPJaYPq.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The last trading session shows that 1.2945 support is still rejecting falling prices and 1.3000 resistance still rejects rising prices so the pair is mostly ranging. The pair also bounced on the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which together with the level at 1.3000, creates a strong confluence zone and tilts our balance slightly towards the short side.

For today we anticipate another touch of 1.2945 but the Stochastic is crossing upwards and this may generate some bullish action; however, this is not a strong enough reason to believe that we will have a bullish trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, expected to show a value of 52.1. Numbers above this forecast indicate optimism among purchasing managers and usually strengthen the Pound but the impact differs from release to release.
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FOREX NEWS: BREXIT BACK IN FOCUS, POUND TAKES A BLOW


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session started slow and remained that way until the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI which showed a value of 51.5, better than the forecast 50.4. Some US Dollar strength was seen at the time but overall volatility was very low. 

[Image: 5PpD9hy.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The latest price action shows that 1.1240 still acts as resistance and now the pair is trying to move below the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average. If the rejection at 1.1240 sends price through the 50 EMA and a full candle closes below the line, we expect to see an extended move south, probably back towards 1.1150. As an alternate scenario, a break of 1.1240 will tilt the balance in favour of the bulls, making 1.1285 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The technical aspect will drive the market today because Europe and the United States didn’t schedule important indicators.


GBP/USD

The Pound was severely weakened by talks about a potential deadline for the Brexit, set for March next year. This triggered a strong drop that broke several support levels and took the pair 130 pips lower.

[Image: J495Smf.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is approaching the key level at 1.2796, which is the lowest point reached since the Brexit referendum took place. We expect small retracements to the upside before the level is reached and once price gets there, we expect a stronger move up, based on the fact that both oscillators will be deeply oversold by then. Potential resistance is located at 1.2880.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI comes out, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about business conditions in the construction sector. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and usually, numbers above the forecast 49.1 strengthen the Pound but given the current situation, the impact may be muted.
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FOREX NEWS: POUND SINKS TO 31-YEAR LOW, SMALL BOUNCE EXPECTED


EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday action picked up and the sellers managed to take the pair back into the support at 1.1150. Overall we had a bearish session but price is still in a range.

[Image: gzlubgU.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the bears advanced into the support at 1.1150, this level is not yet broken so we still consider the pair is in a range and that a move up could very well follow. However, the short term control belongs to the sellers and the oscillators are not oversold so the downside may continue; if this is the case, we expect a break of 1.1130 and a move into 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. employment situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This report is less important than the government data that comes out Friday, but higher values than the forecast 166K can strengthen the US Dollar nonetheless.


GBP/USD

Fears regarding a “hard” Brexit early next year created another bearish session and the pair reached levels last seen in 1985, breaking the low generated by the Brexit referendum.

[Image: FibgHNx.jpg]

Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair had reached a low at 1.2736 but it’s very likely to see further downside by the time you read this. After such a strong drop, we expect a bounce higher and the oversold position of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic supports such a view. A retracement higher is likely to find resistance at the previous level of 1.2796.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the last PMI in the series comes out: the Services PMI. Given the current situation, we don’t expect the release to have a huge impact but under normal circumstances, numbers above the anticipated 52.1 strengthen the Pound.
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