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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: EURO IN THE SPOTLIGHT AHEAD OF ECB PRESSER AND RATE ANNOUNCEMENT


EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action yesterday was mostly ranging and this was mostly due to the fact that no major indicators were released for either currency in the pair. Currently price is very close to 1.1240 and the next direction will probably be decided by the ECB events.

[Image: lf9Tj78.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s sideways movement doesn’t offer a lot of clues about today’s direction and it seems like traders are waiting to see what the European Central Bank will decide regarding rates. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are turning downwards, close to overbought and this favours a move below 1.1240 but the technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight will be the ECB rate announcement, scheduled at 11:45 am GMT and followed at 12:30 pm GMT by ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference. The rate sits currently at 0.00% and is not expected to change, but of course a surprise would trigger wild swings so caution is always recommended. As for Draghi’s conference, this is known to be a major market mover but the direction of the Euro will be decided by his attitude and answers to journalists’ questions.


GBP/USD

The Pound took a hit from a worse than expected Manufacturing Production report, that showed a change of -0.9% (forecast -0.4%), and the pair reversed to re-test the previous resistance.

[Image: mljlJzK.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s drop was triggered by disappointing economic data but the technical aspect agreed as well because the pair was clearly overbought. The level at 1.3365 was resistance and now it may turn into support if it will reject price higher, otherwise we expect a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. To the upside the first potential target is yesterday’s top located at 1.3445.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a calm day ahead, from a fundamental standpoint and price direction will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: ECB RATE REMAINS UNCHANGED, POUND FACES A BOUNCE-OR-BREAK SCENARIO


EUR/USD


Forex News: As expected, yesterday the European Central Bank kept the rate unchanged at 0.00% and on top of that, ECB President Mario Draghi maintained a neutral stance, so the Euro didn’t show dramatic movement.

[Image: C23z36q.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Bullish action was seen ahead of the ECB events and during the press conference the pair had mixed reactions, moving upwards at first and nullifying the gains soon after. Now we have two long upper wicks on the last two four-hour candles and both oscillators are overbought, making us anticipate a bearish session today. If this comes true, the pair will likely find support around 1.1240 and if that is broken, then probably the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will be the next target. To the upside, 1.1340 remains the first resistance and target but a clear break of that zone today is a less likely scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ends on a low note, without major economic releases; the only notable event is the start of the Eurogroup Meetings, attended by key political and financial personalities from the member states. Volatility may be triggered but this depends entirely on the matters discussed.


GBP/USD

The sellers stepped in yesterday, creating a bearish day and reaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This was a much needed retracement because as mentioned previously, the pair was overextended.

[Image: IrWSWHG.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We are dealing with a classic bounce-or-break scenario with the stars of the show being the 50 period EMA and 1.3280 support. If the bears manage to push the pair below this confluence zone, we will probably see an extended move south, but it must be noted that the pair is in an uptrend (starting at 1.2880) and this means that there’s an increased chance of a bounce higher. In any case, the way price behaves here is likely to determine the next medium-term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light today for the Pound so the main focus will be the technical aspect; U.K. representatives will attend the Eurogroup Meetings and this may be a reason for increased volatility.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS IN SHORT-TERM CONTROL, SUPPORT THREATENED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair finished last week on a bearish note, dropping through 1.1240 support and touching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This type of movement will likely trigger an extended fall after a bullish correction.

[Image: 7eksBor.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After the failed attempt to reach 1.1340 resistance, the bears took over and managed to establish their control over the pair. If they manage to close a full candle below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect the pair to head into 1.1185 but a break of this level is not likely to happen today, mostly because we don’t have anything major on the economic calendar. Before the bearish movement can continue, we expect the pair to touch (and maybe pierce through) 1.1240 and to bounce lower soon after.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is empty for both the Euro and the US Dollar so we expect a slow Monday, with possibly ranging movement.


GBP/USD

Friday the sellers continued the move started earlier during the week and pushed the pair through two types of support. The short term bias is negative but an uptrend is still in place.

[Image: sXKaj1u.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The horizontal support at 1.3280 and the dynamic support represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average were both broken Friday and now we see a small push up, which will possibly confirm 1.3280 as resistance. If this comes true, the pair is likely to continue downwards but the extent should be limited because the Stochastic is already oversold. Today we will probably see a ranging day, without major advances to either side.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected by major economic releases, thus the technical aspect will prevail.
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FOREX NEWS: ACTION SPEEDS UP WITH THE RELEASE OF GERMAN ZEW SURVEY AND IMPORTANT BRITISH INFLATION DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the economic calendar was light and the pair had trouble establishing a clear direction. Overall we had a ranging session, with price climbing at first and then dropping to erase the early gains

[Image: sSbzeeU.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price moved twice below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and each time it returned above it but the bulls couldn’t capitalize on the bounce and didn’t push price significantly higher. This indecision will probably come to an end today and we are likely to see a more decisive move; if price descends and a full candle closes below the 50 EMA, we expect to see a move into 1.1185, otherwise the main direction will be north.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment comes out, showing the opinions of 275 German professional investors and analysts regarding a 6-month economic outlook. Due to the nature of their jobs, these persons are well informed and their opinion matters, so higher numbers than the forecast 2.8 (previous 0.5) are viewed as beneficial for the Euro.

At the same time, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the 2016 Alcide De Gasperi Award ceremony, in Trento. We don’t expect this to create huge movement but surprises can always happen so we recommend caution.


GBP/USD

The Pound also had a slow start of the week but later in the afternoon the pair gained some speed and climbed above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

[Image: fVCREYJ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s climb is possibly showing that the drop from 1.3445 was a retracement in an uptrend; however, the picture is not yet clear and this doesn’t necessarily mean that we will see a resumption of the uptrend. What is certain at the moment is that price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.3280 and these are bullish signs. That being said, our bias is bullish, aiming for a touch of 1.3365 but we don’t exclude the possibility of a drop lower.

Fundamental Outlook

British inflation data comes out at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Consumer Price Index that is expected to show a change of 0.7% (previous 0.6%). If this forecast comes true (or if higher numbers are posted), we expect the Pound to strengthen and the pair to climb.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ADVANCES AGAINST POUND ON DISAPPOINTING BRITISH CPI DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday we had a very slow day, without a clear direction or notable developments. Mario Draghi’s speech was shifted 105 minutes later but as expected, it wasn’t a major market mover.

[Image: M1jZfLK.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is still hovering close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, without picking a direction and this makes our bias neutral, expecting a clear move to either side. Same as we mentioned before, a full candle that closes below the 50 EMA can be considered a clear break and may generate additional movement south, with 1.1185 as first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light for both the Euro and the US Dollar but despite this, we expect stronger movement than yesterday.


GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index released yesterday posted a disappointing value of 0.6%, showing that inflation in not improving at the desired pace. This weakened the Pound and allowed the pair to drop through support.

[Image: NYcxBsZ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current move is very likely to touch and even pierce 1.3175 support after small retracements to the upside. Once the pair gets there and if the Relative Strength Index will be oversold, we expect a deeper retracement before a potential break of the mentioned support. If the pair reverses direction and moves straight up, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer the first resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT we take a look at British unemployment situation with the release of the Claimant Count, an indicator that shows changes in the number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits. A higher number than the forecast 1.7K is usually detrimental for the Pound because a larger number of people without jobs means that consumer spending will drop in the future.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. RETAIL SALES, BOE RATE DECISION – THE STALEMATE MAY COME TO AN END


EUR/USD


Forex News: For the most part of yesterday the pair remained in a very tight range, mostly due to the fact that no major economic indicators were released. Later in the afternoon action picked up a bit but without a clear breakout.

[Image: b7o5IcV.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The picture remains blurry as the pair cannot move away from the 50 period Exponential moving Average, which is flat and confirms the lack of bias. Today some important U.S. indicators will be released and we expect this to be the catalyst behind stronger movement; direction will be determined by the numbers posted and for the moment our bias is neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT we have a cluster of events for the US Dollar: the Retail Sales release is probably the most important because sales made at retail levels represent the main part of consumer spending and this is why higher numbers than the forecast -0.1% usually strengthen the greenback.

At the same time the U.S. Producer Price Index comes out, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase; the indicator has inflationary implications and numbers above the forecast 0.1% are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The British Claimant Count showed a change of 2.4K, more than the anticipated 1.7K and this weakened the Pound at the time of release; however, most of the losses were soon erased.

[Image: MOtnmjK.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair descended below 1.3175 but now it shows clear signs of rejection: the last candle has a long wick in its lower part and both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are very close to oversold. This makes us anticipate a rejection that will take price higher, possibly aiming towards the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If this dynamic resistance holds, we will probably see a break of support in the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will announce the interest rate today at 11:00 am GMT and although no change is expected (currently 0.25%), volatility is likely to increase. At the same time we will get insights into the reasons that determined the rate decision, with the release of the Monetary Policy Summary, as well as a breakdown of the members’ votes.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION DATA AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT – FINISHING THE WEEK ON A HIGH NOTE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Retail Sales numbers released yesterday disappointed and the same was true for the Producer Price Index but despite all this, the US Dollar managed to erase all the losses incurred when the indicators came out.

[Image: 4rPTCuP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action confirmed 1.1285 as minor resistance and now the pair has returned in the zone around 1.1240 so the indecision period still continues. This type of behaviour, with price confined in a small range for extended periods of time usually warns that a strong move is about to happen but the direction is difficult to predict. It is also worth noting that despite poor economic data, the US Dollar is still holding its ground against the Euro and this suggests underlying strength. For the time being our bias is neutral, in anticipation of today’s important releases.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT we take a look at U.S. inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index; the forecast is a change of 0.1% (previous 0.0%) and under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the greenback. Keep an eye on the CORE version of the indicator (excludes food and energy) released at the same time and expected to show a 0.2% change from the previous 0.1%.

The last notable release of the week is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey that comes out at 2:00 pm GMT. This is often a leading indicator of consumer spending and that’s the reason why numbers above the forecast 91.0 are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

As expected the Bank of England kept the rate unchanged and the release did not have a huge market impact. The Pound strengthened earlier yesterday but most of the gains were erased.

[Image: 094QxRm.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but encountered the strong resistance at 1.3280 and bounced lower immediately after touching it. Now the pair has reached once again the support at 1.3175 and is already showing signs of rejection so we may see another push towards the moving average. However, if support is broken with a full candle, we expect the move to continue lower. Keep in mind that U.S. inflation data will play an important role in today’s price direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases so the pair’s movement will be mostly influenced by the U.S. indicators and by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: CHANCES OF RETRACEMENTS INCREASE AS BOTH PAIRS ENTER OVERSOLD TERRITORY


EUR/USD


Forex News: Inflation in the United States improved as shown by Friday’s release of the Consumer Price Index (actual 0.2%, forecast 0.1%, previous 0.0%). This strengthened the US Dollar and allowed the pair to drop and reach the support at 1.1150.

[Image: ZsNXzFA.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Friday’s move took the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic close to oversold territory and into the support at 1.1150. This strong move follows a relatively long period of indecision and we expect it to extend beyond 1.1150 but it’s very possible to see a retracement higher or at least sideways movement before further bearish advances. The levels to watch today are 1.1130 as support and 1.1185 as resistance; of course, the current 1.1150 level will have a major role to play in today’s price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The technical aspect will take centre stage today because there are no notable indicators on the economic calendar for either the Euro or the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened tremendously Friday and dropped for more than 250 pips on the back of speculation that Britain may give up membership of the single market of the European Union. This coupled with positive U.S. inflation data triggered the break of several support levels.

[Image: 6m4CbV0.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Friday we saw the break of 1.3175 and 1.3070, both levels that acted as strong support in the past; this clearly puts the bears in control but a strong move is often followed by a retracement to the opposite side. The Relative Strength Index is oversold and the Stochastic is quickly approaching that condition, making us anticipate a bounce higher or at least sideways movement. We may see price move slowly below 1.3000 (which acts as strong psychological support) but a small retracement should soon follow.

Fundamental Outlook

Same as the US Dollar and the Euro, the Pound is not affected today by major economic news releases. This may generate a slow and ranging trading session.
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FOREX NEWS: RETRACEMENTS COMPLETE. WHAT’S NEXT?


EUR/USD


Forex News: As expected the pair climbed yesterday and the reason was mostly technical because the fundamental scene was quiet. The support at 1.1150 did its job by rejecting price higher and now resistance is tested.

[Image: 91Brb7B.jpg]

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish and we anticipate a break of 1.1150 support. The push up seen yesterday is considered just a retracement and so far 1.1185 resistance is not clearly broken so we may see a move lower before the 50 EMA is reached. If 1.1150 is broken today, we expect a touch of 1.1130 but keep in mind that the Stochastic is still oversold and this may prevent a bigger drop.

Fundamental Outlook

The day is pretty calm, with the U.S. Building Permits being the only notable indicator. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected number is 1.17M (previous 1.14M). A higher number of permits shows increased activity in the construction sector and this usually translates into a stronger US Dollar but the impact is often mild.


GBP/USD

As expected the pair retraced higher yesterday and reached the level at 1.3070. Same as in the case of the EUR/USD, this move was mostly generated by technical reasons because the Pound wasn’t affected by any economic indicators.

[Image: vfrxoeD.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The control still belongs to the sellers and this move up must be viewed as a normal reaction to Friday’s strong drop. As long as the pair is trading below resistance and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish but we must note that the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are coming out of oversold territory and this may push price higher. However, the extent of the retracement should be limited and there’s a strong chance to see a move lower from 1.3070 if this level will turn into resistance. If this happens, we will probably see another encounter with 1.3000 today.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Building Permits and the technical aspect will take centre stage today because the United Kingdom didn’t prepare any major news releases for today.
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FOREX NEWS: FED RATE AND PRESS CONFERENCE: THE MARKET REACHES A BOILING POINT


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair completed a retracement that reached the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and soon after, it started to descend. No major advances were made and price returned below 1.1185.

[Image: ztQ5phb.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The 50 period EMA offered good resistance yesterday and pushed price lower almost immediately after being touched. This shows us that the bears are in control of short term price action and strengthens our view that 1.1150 support will be touched or even broken in the near future. The oscillators are no longer oversold so the pair is free to move to either side but today we have a cluster of Fed announcements and these will be the main market mover.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:00 pm GMT the Fed will announce the interest rate which is not expected to change from the current <0.50% and at the same time the FOMC will release a Rate Statement, detailing the reasons that determined the rate vote.

Also at 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC Economic Projections come out, containing economic growth and inflation expectations for the next 2 years. Half an hour later, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference discussing the rate decision and answering journalists’ questions; usually this is the most volatile time of the day because the US Dollar is very responsive to Yellen’s attitude and answers. Often price movement is irregular as traders around the world try to interpret her words, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

After a brief pullback to the upside, the pair continued its travel south and broke the support at 1.3000. This is an important victory for the bears, which solidifies their medium term control and opens the door for additional downside movement.

[Image: RpcRycA.jpg]

Technical Outlook

It seems like the next medium term target is the support located around 1.2880 but we must note the oversold condition of both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index. This means that we may see a move back up, towards the recently broken 1.3000 but today’s price direction will be mainly decided by the U.S. events so the technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar doesn’t hold any Pound-affecting indicators today but the Fed meeting and rate announcement will have a direct and strong impact on the pair’s movement.
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