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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS MIXED REACTION AHEAD OF JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the economic releases didn’t have a huge impact but after an encounter with resistance, the US Dollar gained some momentum and reached support, generating a bearish session.

[Image: kZwBe6I.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bears managed to break an important confluence zone, created by the support at 1.1270 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This shows that the balance of power is starting to tilt in their favour and that we will probably see an encounter with the bullish trend line on the chart above. On the other hand, a move above the 50 EMA will open the door for a climb back into 1.1340 but the economic releases will likely be the deciding factor.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:00 am GMT, the German IFO Business Climate survey comes out, showing the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding their economic expectations for the next 6 months. The large sample of this survey is what makes it important and usually numbers above the forecast 108.5, strengthen the Euro.

Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Durable Goods orders come out, with an anticipated 3.4% change, a strong increase from the previous -3.9%. If the actual number will be close to this forecast, the US Dollar is likely to strengthen.

Also keep in mind that today is the first day of the Jackson Hole Symposium and this may increase volatility because the event is attended by key financial and political personalities from across the globe.


GBP/USD

The Pound remained above 1.3175 and strengthened without apparent reason yesterday, generating a bullish day for the pair.

[Image: 1CoC8Pv.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We expect the current climb to extend into the resistance at 1.3280 and if this barrier is broken, we may see a climb into 1.3365 during the days to come. However, the up move is exhausted and both oscillators are overbought so we rather favour a bounce lower around the 1.3280 zone. The U.S. economic indicators will have an important part to play in today’s direction and the Jackson Hole Symposium may do the same.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic releases but British personalities will be present at the Symposium so volatility may increase and caution is recommended.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR PREPARES FOR YELLEN’S JACKSON HOLE SPEECH


EUR/USD


Forex News: Euro data released yesterday was slightly worse than anticipated while the U.S. Durable Goods Orders exceeded analysts’ expectations, yet the pair didn’t have a bearish reaction and instead moved above the moving average.

[Image: ZiuHzib.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After nearly touching the support at 1.1240, the pair bounced higher and moved back above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, setting the stage for a resumption of the uptrend. However, the current move up doesn’t show strength and in fact the entire yesterday’s session was low-volatility; this may suggest that price may be headed in fact lower, towards the bullish trend line seen on the chart above. The main levels to watch today are 1.1240 to the downside and 1.1340 as resistance; if the pair moves below the 50 EMA we favour a touch of the mentioned support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product comes out, showing changes in the total value of services and goods produced by the economy. This version is less important than the Advance, which was released already, but still, higher values than the forecast 1.1% can strengthen the US Dollar.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium at 2:00 pm GMT. The speech is titled “The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Toolkit" so we can surely expect her to talk about monetary policy and usually this topic creates strong market movement.


GBP/USD

Yesterday price travelled the entire distance between resistance and support and seems like the positive U.S. economic data had a strong impact on the pair, unlike it was with the EUR/USD.

[Image: mv4eEMk.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After the bearish bounce close to 1.3280, the anticipated retracement occurred, but now 1.3175 seems to have turned into support. If this level will push price higher, we expect a move into 1.3280, but a bearish break will make the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the first target. Both oscillators are coming down from overbought, favouring a bearish scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Second Estimate British GDP is released and anticipated to show a change of 0.6%, same as previous. The GDP is the gauge of overall economic performance, thus higher numbers usually have a positive impact on the currency.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: YELLEN BOOSTS THE US DOLLAR, PAIRS DROP THROUGH SUPPORT


EUR/USD


Forex News: The bears scored a major victory Friday, mostly fuelled by Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Several support levels were broken and now the balance has shifted towards the short side.

[Image: IqgpMp5.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Friday’s fall took the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, broke 1.1240 support and the bullish trend line, making the bias clearly bearish. However, after a strong move in one direction, usually price retraces or moves sideways for a period, so we expect some bullish pullbacks today. The oversold position of the Relative Strength Index and the vicinity of 1.1185 support strengthen this view, making us anticipate bullish retracements but these will most likely be followed by another drop.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Personal Spending is released, showing the changes in the total value of expenditures made by U.S. individuals. The indicator has a relatively low impact on the US Dollar but higher numbers than the forecast 0.3% can strengthen it because consumer spending represents the main part of the entire economic activity.


GBP/USD

Friday, after a brief jump that took the pair into resistance, the US Dollar strengthened during Yellen’s speech and price dropped for more than 150 pips, creating a bearish trading session.

[Image: y6EjQyC.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3280 is still a key level that stopped once again bullish advances and rejected the pair lower, into the 50 period EMA. As long as the bears can keep the pair below the moving average, our bias is negative and we anticipate a move into 1.3070. If the pair moves back above the moving average, we are likely to see a touch of 1.3175. 

Fundamental Outlook

British banks will be closed today, celebrating their Summer Bank Holiday; this also means that no major indicators will be released and volatility may be low.
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS IN CONTROL, OVERSOLD LEVELS CALL FOR RETRACEMENTS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The speed of movement slowed down yesterday but the US Dollar continued to strengthen against its peers and support was broken, creating a bearish trading session.

[Image: sGvCg51.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current move is likely to extend into the support at 1.1150, where we expect a bullish retracement based on the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic. This potential retracement can find resistance at 1.1185 and if this level rejects price, we expect a move below 1.1150, towards 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT we take a look at German inflation with the release of the Preliminary version of their Consumer Price Index. This is a key indicator that can strengthen the Euro if it posts a reading above the forecast 0.1% (previous 0.3%).

On the US Dollar side we have the Consumer Confidence survey, released at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 97.2, little changed from the previous 97.3. This is a leading indicator of consumer spending and higher values usually strengthen the greenback, with the opposite being true for lower values.


GBP/USD

After the break of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, more sellers joined in and the fall extended into support. The economic scene was rather calm so the move was mostly technical.

[Image: uOD132H.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the bears have short term control, we expect the pair to bounce at 1.3070 and to climb slightly, due to the oversold condition of the oscillators. However, a break of this important support would show that the bears are stronger than anticipated and would mean that further downside will follow. Even if the pair moves below support, we expect some sort of retracement to follow soon, based on the fact that the move will become overextended.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic announcements for today, so price direction will be influenced by the U.S. survey and by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT REPORT – A FIRST LOOK AT U.S. JOBS DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: The German Preliminary CPI released yesterday was slightly worse than expected and the U.S. Consumer survey was slightly better than anticipated, so the pair descended below 1.1150 after a short ranging period.

[Image: wBvqd0I.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price just pierced 1.1150 but did not break it decisively and the two oscillators are still oversold, making us anticipate a bullish retracement that will probably reach 1.1185. If this level turns into resistance and rejects the pair lower, then we can expect to see a clear break of 1.1150 and a move closer to 1.1100 but if 1.1185 doesn’t turn into resistance, we may see a climb into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. employment levels with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment, a report that tracks changes in the number of employed people, excluding the government and of course the farming industry. The anticipated number is 173K (previous 179K) and higher levels can strengthen the US Dollar but its impact (although high), is lower than the NFP report released Friday.


GBP/USD

The support at 1.3070 proved yesterday its importance once again and rejected price higher. However, the pair did not surpass the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the bias is still bearish.

[Image: AQ0BgG8.jpg]

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair remains below the 50 EMA, we maintain a bearish stance and anticipate a break of 1.3070 but so far the sellers tried twice to break this level and each time they failed. This shows that control doesn’t clearly belong to either side and suggests that a break of the moving average will probably take price closer to 1.3175.

Fundamental Outlook


A lot will depend on the U.S. jobs data released today and this will probably be the main market mover, especially because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major releases.
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FOREX NEWS: RANGING MOVEMENT IN ANTICIPATION OF KEY U.S. JOBS DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: Despite the oversold condition of the two oscillators, the pair grinded slowly lower yesterday and moved below 1.1150. The U.S. ADP jobs data came very close to the forecast value, thus the event didn’t have a huge impact.

[Image: NlMd52A.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is en route to 1.1100 support and once it gets there, we expect the bulls to step in and take price higher, clearing the oversold condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index. It’s possible to see such a retracement even before 1.1100 support is reached, because the speed of movement has decreased and the oscillators are oversold for a relatively long while. A bullish move will likely find resistance at 1.1185 and if 1.1100 is broken, price can find support at 1.1075.

Fundamental Outlook

The European scene is slow today and on the US Dollar side we have the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 52.0, little changed from the previous 52.6. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health, focused on the manufacturing sector and has a positive impact on the greenback if the actual number is higher than analysts’ forecast.


GBP/USD

The Pound bulls tried to move the pair above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average yesterday but overall price showed mixed direction, with sharp reversals.

[Image: tabu5m2.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After the move above the 50 EMA the pair returned close to 1.3070 and then pushed higher again. This type of movement shows that neither side in is clear control and that the next move is uncertain. Until the resistance at 1.3175 or the support at 1.3070 is broken, we consider the pair in a range and expect direction to be influenced by the economic releases scheduled today and tomorrow.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the United Kingdom will release Manufacturing data in the form of the Purchasing Managers’ Index. This is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector, regarding overall business conditions in said sector and usually has a medium impact, with higher numbers strengthening the Pound. The forecast for today’s release is 49.1, slightly higher than the previous 48.2.
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FOREX NEWS: PREPARE FOR A VOLATILITY SPIKE. IT’S NFP DAY!


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair didn’t show a clear direction until the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, which showed a value of 49.4, lower than the forecast 52.0. The greenback weakened once the indicator came out and the pair broke above resistance.

[Image: Kn53UZk.jpg]

Technical Outlook

A weak US Dollar allowed the pair to climb above 1.1150 and close to 1.1185; although the distance travelled is not huge, this bullish impulse may generate a stronger climb that may reach the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If this barrier is surpassed, we can expect to see a move into 1.1240 but if the move up proves to be short-lived, then 1.1100 will become the first bearish target. The technical aspect will be overshadowed today by the NFP release which is always a strong market mover.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the most important U.S. jobs data is announced: the Non-Farm Payrolls (also known as Non-Farm Employment Change). This report shows changes in the number of employed people in the United States, during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and is considered a high impact indicator. In fact, almost always at the time of release, volatility increases drastically and the US Dollar moves strongly, so we recommend caution. The anticipated number is 186K (previous 255K) and as a rule of thumb, lower numbers weaken the greenback, with the opposite being true for higher numbers.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI was much better than anticipated while the U.S. indicator with the same name showed a disappointing value. This strengthened the Pound and weakened the US Dollar, thus generating a strong bullish day for the pair.

[Image: 1cxy8FP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved almost 200 pips north, broke 1.3280 and took the two oscillators in overbought territory. Strong moves are usually followed by retracements or periods of sideways movement but the main focus today will be on the U.S. jobs data and the technical side will be secondary; the levels to watch are 1.3365 as potential resistance and 1.3280 as potential support.

Fundamental Outlook

Apart from the important U.S. jobs data, the pair will be influenced by the release of the British Construction PMI, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. The expected value is 46.6 and higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound but this indicator usually has a lower impact than the Manufacturing PMI which was released yesterday.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR IN FOR A SLOW DAY AS UNITED STATES CELEBRATE LABOR DAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s highlight was the NFP release, which proved once again that it can create sharp reversals and irregular movement. The actual number was 151K, lower than the forecast 180K and this initially weakened the US Dollar but hawkish comments from a Fed official brought the pair back down.

[Image: 96JxawR.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price dropped for almost 100 pips after the initial climb and the short-term bias is now bearish. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average offered good resistance and pushed price lower, confirming the bearish bias, so we expect a move below the support at 1.1150, probably into 1.1130. As an alternate scenario, if price climbs we don’t expect 1.1185 to be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we expect a low volatility day, because U.S. banks will be closed due to Labor Day and Europe hasn’t scheduled major releases either. The only reason for volatility today may be the G20 Meetings but their impact is sometimes mild, depending on the matters discussed.


GBP/USD

The disappointing NFP number took the pair higher and although the US Dollar strengthened soon after, it didn’t manage to erase all the Pound gains. Overall the session was bullish but rejection is clearly present.

[Image: aJKwcBR.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The NFP candle shows a long wick in its upper part, the two oscillators are overbought and price travelled a long distance in a relatively short while. All this makes us anticipate a retracement to the downside and a move back below 1.3280 but even if the bullish impulse generated Friday will continue today, we don’t expect the move to extend above 1.3365.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released, anticipated to show a value of 49.1, better than last month’s 47.4. This is a survey that shows the opinions of purchasing managers regarding the health of the services sector and usually has a medium-to-low impact but higher numbers strengthen the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STILL LACKS A CLEAR BIAS. TRADERS SHIFT ATTENTION TOWARDS U.S. NON-MANUFACTURING PMI


EUR/USD


Forex News: During yesterday’s trading session volatility remained relatively low and the pair moved in a 50 pip range but Friday’s low was broken; however, no major advances were made.

[Image: Ishxgxt.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.1150 pushed price higher initially but the climb lacked enough strength to reach the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and came close to the resistance at 1.1185, without threatening it. This suggests that control still belongs to the bears and that we will see an encounter with the support at 1.1130, possibly 1.1100. Once the oscillators become oversold and turn upwards, look for retracements north.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s only notable indicator is the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of purchasing managers from the services sector regarding their assessment of overall conditions in said sector. Numbers above 50 indicate optimism, strengthening the US Dollar; today’s forecast is 55.4, almost identical to the previous 55.5.


GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened yesterday on the back of a better than anticipated Services PMI (actual 52.9, forecast 49.1) but resistance wasn’t taken out and rejection signs are present.

[Image: iuCimBP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

For several days the pair is printing candles with long upper shadows (wicks) and the oscillators are overbought. These are strong signs of rejection and we expect price to change direction soon, heading for 1.3280 which may turn into support. If this level becomes support and rejects price, we will probably see another push to break 1.3365, otherwise the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the next target but we don’t expect it to be hit during the course of one day unless exceptional developments take place.

Fundamental Outlook

Price direction today will be determined by the technical aspect and by the U.S. survey because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR DIPS ON WEAK DATA, POUND SOARS AHEAD OF MARK CARNEY’S TESTIMONY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Non-Manufacturing PMI took a big hit and posted a value of 51.4, the lowest value since January 2010. The US Dollar immediately weakened and the pair broke resistance.

[Image: khaAkCy.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The weak survey for the US Services sector is likely to generate an extended move north but the current level at 1.1240 rejected strong movement in the past so the same could happen now. A clear break, followed by a re-test of the broken level will increase the chances for a continuation upwards, into 1.1340. The Stochastic is oversold, moving upwards and the Relative Strength Index is close to overbought so the oscillators show mixed signals and are not of much help.

Fundamental Outlook

The fundamental scene is calm for the US Dollar and the Euro, without any notable indicators, so the technical aspect will be the main market mover.


GBP/USD

This pair was also affected by the worse than expected United States survey and despite all signs of rejection, yesterday we had another strongly bullish day.

[Image: a0MXOa9.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The dollar weakness allowed the pair to climb well above the resistance at 1.3365 despite the overbought condition of the oscillators and other rejection signs. However, now the chances of a retracement lower have increased, so we expect to see a bearish session today, or at least sideways movement as we don’t favour a continuation before the pair takes a “breather”. The levels to watch are 1.3480 as resistance and 1.3365 as potential support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the UK will release the Manufacturing Production, an indicator that shows changes in the total value of goods produced by the Manufacturing sector; the release usually has a medium-to-high impact, with higher values than the expected -0.4%, strengthening the Pound.

Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT the Inflation Report Hearings take place. During these hearings, BOE Governor Carney will testify before the Parliament's Treasury Committee on inflation expectations and economic outlook. The event usually has a strong impact on the Pound so it will likely overshadow the technical aspect, determining today’s Pound bias.
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