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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: EURO MAKES A SURPRISING COMEBACK AS THE POUND DIPS LOWER


EUR/USD


Forex News: After a period of calmness and sideways movement, the Euro jumped above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and erased some of the previous US Dollar gains, generating a bullish session yesterday.

[Image: u953ZaE.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current climb is likely to be short lived and followed by a drop into 1.1025 as long as the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is not clearly broken. If the moving average will be broken, the next destination is 1.1150 and this will also mean that the NFP gains will be completely erased but we still favour the short side as long as the pair is trading below 1.1150 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

We have another slow economic day ahead, with the only notable indicator being the JOLTS Job Openings, released at 2:00 pm GMT. As its name suggests, the indicator shows the number of job openings in the United States and higher numbers than the forecast 5.52M can strengthen the US Dollar but keep in mind that the impact is often very low.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s main event was the release of the British Manufacturing Production, which disappointed by showing a -0.3% change, and the Pound reacted by dropping further below support.

[Image: hQTP6hd.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.3070 is now clear so we can consider that the bears have successfully taken the pair out of the horizontal channel. This means that we might be headed for the next target, located at 1.2880 but we don’t exclude bullish retracements (both oscillators are oversold). However, as long as the pair is trading below 1.3070 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. indicator mentioned earlier will be the only notable event of the day as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases.
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FOREX NEWS: BULLS REACH RESISTANCE, US DOLLAR PREPARES A COMEBACK


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair ran sharply upwards and nullified the US Dollar gains generated by last week’s NFP release. Immediate resistance was easily broken and the session was dominated by the bulls.

[Image: gAzVASH.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair has now reached 1.1186 resistance and this also coincides with a bearish trend line seen on the chart above. The Relative Strength Index is just touching its 70 level, suggesting an overbought condition and the Stochastic is starting to cross downwards. All this suggests that a move lower will follow and if this comes true, we expect an encounter with 1.1150 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The fundamental scene remains quiet today, and the only notable release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT in the form of the U.S. Unemployment Claims. This indicator shows changes in the number of people without jobs that have applied for social help but it is released every week and the impact is not always strong; the expected number is 272K and numbers above this can weaken the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Price retraced into the previous support but it remained in a range once it reached it and overall yesterday’s trading session was uneventful.

[Image: z0IuXKR.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After an oversold condition signalled by the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic, the pair returned to re-test the previously broken support at 1.3070 but signs of rejection are already present. A good climb was stopped by 1.3070 and price attempted to move above the level a couple of times but didn’t succeed. This suggests that 1.3070 will turn into resistance and if this is the case, we will see today a drop towards yesterday’s low located at 1.2990; otherwise the 50 EMA is the first bullish target.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s another uneventful day for the Pound, so price direction will be dictated by the technical aspect and also by the U.S. Unemployment Claims but to a limited extent.
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FOREX NEWS: FOCUS SHIFTS ON ECONOMIC INDICATORS AS GERMAN GDP AND U.S. RETAIL SALES ARE ANNOUNCED


EUR/USD


Forex News: We had another uneventful day on the fundamental scene yesterday and the pair didn’t show any major new developments. Price fell slightly below 1.1150 then returned above it, nullifying most of the initial move.

[Image: 8Xhehgv.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is confined between the bearish trend line seen on the chart above and the support at 1.1150 and until one of these technical barriers is broken, we expect ranging movement. Today is the busiest day of the week from a fundamental perspective so the economic indicators will probably decide price direction but strictly from a technical standpoint we anticipate a drop into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average if the trend line holds.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 6:00 am GMT the German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released, with a forecast change of 0.3% (previous 0.7%). Higher than forecast numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the impact is low if the actual value comes close to analysts’ forecast.

On the US Dollar side we have the Retail Sales, scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a 0.4% change compared to the previous 0.6%. This type of sales represent the main part of consumer spending, which in turn accounts for a big part of overall economic activity, thus higher readings usually strengthen the greenback.

The last event of the day is the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, a survey that tries to gauge the confidence of consumers in overall economic conditions. The time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT and the forecast is 91.5; same as with the other indicators, higher numbers strengthen the currency.


GBP/USD
 

Yesterday the US Dollar recuperated the losses incurred a day before and the pair bounced at 1.3070 resistance, creating a bearish day. 

[Image: 0HqorCN.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and bounced lower after an encounter with 1.3070, which has now turned into resistance. This makes our bias bearish, anticipating a move into 1.2900 area. Possible bullish retracements will be capped by 1.3070 resistance, which we expect to hold in case it is reached, but today’s price behaviour will be mostly influenced by the U.S. releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic indicators for today so the main focus will be on the US Dollar.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: INFLATION DATA ACROSS THE BOARD


EUR/USD


Forex News: For the first part of yesterday’s trading session, price traded mostly sideways due to the lack of economic releases. The second part was more active, with the bulls taking control of direction.

[Image: t0fiv92.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and pierced both the trend line and the resistance at 1.1186. However, we must note that 1.1186 is not clearly broken so we may see a reversal from here; if price descends, it will reach the area around 1.1150 where we see a convergence of three key elements: the 1.1150 level itself, the bearish trend line and the 50 EMA (which by then will climb to reach that zone). This strong confluence area is likely to push price upwards again but on the other hand, a break would show that the US Dollar is gaining back control.

Fundamental Outlook

Two important indicators will hold today’s headlines: on the Euro side we have the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, which is a survey of about 275 German investors and analysts, focused on their 6-month economic outlook. The scheduled time is 9:00 am GMT and the expected value is 2.1, a hefty increase from the previous -6.8.

On the US Dollar side we have a very important indicator: the Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation. Traders and the Fed pay more attention to the CORE version of the CPI, which excludes from calculation energy and food; the indicator is expected to show a 0.2% change, same as previous and is released at 12:30 pm GMT. Higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar under current conditions.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair continued its downwards path and reached our predicted target at 1.2880. The entire session was controlled by the sellers but movement wasn’t extremely strong.

[Image: AKUalZR.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Now that the pair has reached an important support zone and both oscillators are oversold, we expect retracements to the upside to begin. The extent of this potential pullback should be limited and afterwards, we anticipate another drop, with the key low at 1.2796 as target. If price descends below current support, it will probably retrace higher before 1.2800 zone is reached.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British CPI comes out, showing the state of current inflation in the United Kingdom. The indicator usually has a high impact and can strengthen the Pound if it shows better than anticipated figures. For today’s release the forecast is 0.5%, same as previous.
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FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES: TELLING THE STORY OF THE NEXT RATE HIKE


EUR/USD


Forex News: U.S. inflation data disappointed yesterday and this was one of the reasons why the pair climbed strongly; however the CPI wasn’t much lower than anticipated so that was not the only reason for the climb.

[Image: idWvQm7.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.1186 turned into support and pushed price higher in yesterday’s trading session but such a fast climb is likely to retrace lower, possibly into 1.1240 which was also broken during the rally. The Relative Strength Index is hooking down, after reaching overbought territory and this is another indication that a move lower will follow. After this anticipated retracement, if price remains above the 50 period EMA, we expect another push higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro will not be affected by economic releases today and on the US Dollar side we have the always important FOMC Meeting Minutes, released at 6:00 pm GMT. This document contains a detailed record of the latest Fed meeting regarding interest rates and usually contains hints about future rate moves. If this is the case, we expect strong movement on USD pairs.


GBP/USD

The British CPI showed slight improvement and this, combined with the disappointing U.S. data, triggered a retracement higher and a bullish session.

[Image: dOwrLyi.jpg]

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is still bearish and consider this just a much needed retracement which was already anticipated. The candles start to show long wicks, which is a clear sign that the bullish impulse is fading away, thus we expect price to move lower today. As an alternate scenario, a break of the 50 EMA will likely take the pair into 1.3070 which is now resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 8:30 am GMT we take a look at British unemployment with the release of the Claimant Count Change, an indicator that tracks changes in the total number of people who asked for social help due to their unemployed condition. Higher numbers than the anticipated 5.2K (previous 0.4K) usually weaken the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES A BLOW FROM MIXED FOMC OPINIONS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Ahead of the FOMC Minutes release, the pair drifted mostly sideways, without clear direction but the document showed that participants generally agreed that the next rate hike will depend on labour market performance and economic activity.

[Image: LeXWMpq.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair climbed when the FOMC Meeting Minutes were released but their contents were not extremely bearish for the US Dollar so we don’t expect this climb to break 1.1340 resistance; the overbought position of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic strengthens our opinion that this move will not break 1.1340. However, keep in mind that the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.1240 is now support so the bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, showing the health of the manufacturing industry in the Philadelphia district. The anticipated number is 1.4, a reasonable increase from the previous -2.9 and we can expect some US Dollar strength if even higher values are posted.


GBP/USD

The pair continued higher and touched the resistance at 1.3070 before the release of the Minutes and is now trying to break it on the back of mixed opinions among FOMC members regarding the next rate hike.

[Image: 46TxUn8.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3070 rejected an early attack and pushed price lower but now the Pound bulls are trying to break the level again. The oscillators are close to overbought so it’s very possible to see a return below 1.3070 even if it will be briefly breached. On the other hand, a break followed by a successful re-test of the level would suggest that we will see further upside movement.

Fundamental Outlook


An important British indicator is released today at 8:30 am GMT: the Retail Sales. Such sales are the most important for an economy and usually this release has strong impact on the Pound, with higher numbers strengthening it. The anticipated change is 0.1%, compared with the previous -0.9% so we can expect some Pound strength if analysts’ prediction comes true or if higher values are posted.
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FOREX NEWS: DEEP OVERBOUGHT LEVELS WARN ABOUT A REVERSAL


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair continued higher yesterday and the resistance at 1.1340 was reached although the U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was slightly better than anticipated. Overall the session was bullish but signs of a reversal started to appear.

[Image: dZBUSdG.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index is moving above the overbought level for the second time in a relatively short while, resistance sits in front of rising price and the candles show long wicks on their upper and lower parts. All these are clear signs that the current bullish move is exhausted and that a reversal is looming. The first known support is located at 1.1240 but the retracement may stop before it hits this level and on the other hand, a break of 1.1340 will open the door for the zone around 1.1400, which is where the Brexit move originated.

Fundamental Outlook

Both currencies in the pair have a lacklustre fundamental environment, without important releases. This may trigger a slow, ranging day.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound benefited from increased sales made at retail levels (anticipated 0.1%, actual 1.4%) and strengthened considerably, generating a substantial climb. 

[Image: HoObx2i.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is now trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.3070, which puts it in a short to medium term bullish market. The current climb is likely to continue but the extent should be limited because both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are overbought and price travelled a long distance without a retracement. Also, 1.3175 is minor resistance so we may see some sort of retracement from here.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound is not affected my major indicator releases today so we expect price direction to be decided by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: BLANK ECONOMIC CALENDAR OPENS THE DOOR FOR RANGE-BOUND STRATEGIES


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the economic calendar was blank and action slowed down compared to previous days but the bears managed to bring the pair lower after reaching a high at 1.1366.

[Image: VwAwOEn.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is again trading below the resistance at 1.1340 which was briefly broken last week; for now this is just a retracement in an uptrend and cannot be considered a reversal or a clear change of direction. Today we will probably see some ranging movement, capped by 1.1366 to the upside and by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the downside. The oscillators are exiting overbought, moving down and this makes our bias slightly bearish, without excluding another encounter with resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The day totally lacks any notable events for both the Euro and the US Dollar and this strengthens our view that we are in for a slow, ranging day.


GBP/USD

Friday belonged to the bears, who managed to bring the pair back into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This is a key confluence zone, where a bounce or break could decide the next medium term move.

[Image: S78hdWd.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.3070 and the 50 period EMA create a confluence zone that can push price higher; also, the candles show wicks in their lower part, which is a sign of rejection. Based on the way price has been moving lately, the Pound seems to gain short term strength so a bounce higher is very possible. On the other hand, a break of the mentioned confluence zone would be a clear sign of power for the bears, so if that happens, we expect the pair to continue lower during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow economic day ahead, without major announcements; price direction will be influenced by the technical aspect but we don’t expect strong movement.
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FOREX NEWS: BULLS PUSH HIGHER, AIMING FOR KEY RESISTANCE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The day lacked major events and the pair moved initially lower but soon reversed direction and travelled back up, close to the opening price of the week.

[Image: piGvlxd.jpg]

Technical Outlook

It looks like the two sides are evenly balanced and that the pair might enter a ranging period, with price capped between the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.1340. For today we favour a move lower, into the moving average. A break of this line will extend the drop into 1.1240 and possibly into the bullish trend line seen above but the pair is in a short-to-medium term uptrend at the moment so we don’t exclude a move higher.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:30 am GMT the German Manufacturing PMI is released, with an anticipated value of 53.7, almost unchanged from the previous 53.8. This survey is derived from the opinions of about 500 purchasing managers and is focused on their opinions regarding the health of the manufacturing sector. Usually, numbers above the forecast strengthen the Euro but the impact is often limited.

On the US Dollar side we have the New Home Sales, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 575K compared to the previous 592K. The indicator shows the annualized number of houses sold during the previous month and gauges the health of the U.S. housing market, thus higher values have a positive impact on the greenback.


GBP/USD

After another attempt to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, price bounced higher, generating a bullish day although the Pound wasn’t fueled by notable economic releases.

[Image: ZW03XBP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The fact that price tried for the second time to break the moving average but failed makes us anticipate a move to the upside, that will probably reach 1.3175. This level is now resistance and we expect it to reject price lower once and if it is touched. As an alternate scenario, a break of 1.3070 and the 50 EMA will probably bring in more sellers but this is less likely to occur until price climbs higher first.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the technical side and by the U.S. housing data because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any notable economic news releases.
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FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE LEVELS HIT. WILL THE US DOLLAR START A NEW ASSAULT?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The bulls managed to take the pair into resistance yesterday despite positive U.S. housing data; however, the effects of the New Home Sales (actual 645K, forecast 575K) are likely to make their presence known and to strengthen the US Dollar.

[Image: T21t188.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the pair moved briefly above 1.1340 resistance, we expect a bounce lower from here, with the low at 1.1270 as first target. Price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and it’s printing higher lows and higher highs so it’s clear that the pair is in an uptrend but the move up seems exhausted. The moving average is in close vicinity of the latest low so the way price behaves when and if it gets there, will offer hints about future movement. On the other hand, a break of 1.1340 will open the door for the high at 1.1366.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator on today’s calendar is the U.S. Existing Home Sales, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The indicator excludes from calculation new buildings and usually has a low-to-medium impact, but higher numbers than the forecast 5.55M can strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

As expected the pair continued to climb and reached the resistance at 1.3175, generating a bullish day. Although the level was breached, we don’t consider that the move will extend much further.

[Image: yczlWMP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair has moved above 1.3175 resistance but the Relative Strength Index is touching its overbought level and on top of that, bearish divergence is present. This type of divergence indicates that a move lower may soon follow and occurs when price is making a higher high but a corresponding oscillator (the RSI in this case) is just showing a lower high. If the pair returns soon below 1.3175, it means the bullish break was false and that we will see a move lower, probably into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has another slow economic day ahead, with no major indicators on the calendar. The direction will be mainly decided by the technical aspect and to some extent, by the U.S. housing data.
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