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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES THE ASSAULT ON A WEAKENED POUND


EUR/USD


Forex News: The week opened lower, with a gap that was already closed during yesterday’s trading session and afterwards the pair continued south, without breaking support.

[Image: sCULkNv.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although we saw some bullish action yesterday, overall strength belongs to the bears and the US Dollar is winning the battle. For today we expect a continuation of the down movement, probably through 1.0960 and towards the low at 1.0911 that will probably be broken in the near future. The oscillators are close to oversold but given the whole Brexit turmoil, their importance has diminished.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 8:00 am GMT ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver opening remarks at the European Central Bank Forum, in Sintra. If he touches on the UK situation, we will likely see some effect on the market and as always, caution is advised.

The U.S. Final version of the Gross Domestic Product is released today at 12:30 pm GMT, expected to show 1.0% change compared to the previous 0.8%. Higher values are beneficial for the greenback but the Final version is the least important so we don’t expect huge movement. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT an American Consumer Confidence survey is released, acting as a leading indicator of consumer spending. The forecast is 93.2, little changed from the previous 92.6 but higher values usually bring US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Yesterday belonged to the bears as well, and the entire day price moved lower after a big weekly gap that we don’t expect to be closed soon.

[Image: h7DBu99.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Last week’s low at 1.3227 was broken yesterday and at the time of writing the pair made a new low at 1.3119. We anticipate a move lower, probably into 1.3000 area in the near term but this doesn’t mean that retracements will not occur in the meantime. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are both severely oversold but as stated before, this has less importance given the current situation. Volatility is still high and irregular movement still possible.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major indicator releases but an EU Summit starts today, with the UK exit as the main topic, so we expect strong movement.
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FOREX NEWS: EU SUMMIT: EUROPEAN LEADERS DIGEST THE UK SITUATION


EUR/USD


Forex News: European leaders have met yesterday in Brussels to discuss the Brexit and the potential damage it will do to the European Union; the market recuperated some of the losses but nothing substantial. The Summit will continue today.

[Image: EP9IXvV.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Uncertainty still rules the market because now there are talks about a second UK referendum and possibly a delayed separation from the EU. Yesterday the pair climbed and breached the resistance at 1.1100 but now we see clear signs of rejection and we expect downside movement to resume; if this is the case, the first notable target is 1.0960 but a move above 1.1100 will most likely take price into 1.1150.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary version of the Consumer Price Index is released and expected to show a change of 0.1% compared to the previous 0.3%. Usually this is an important release but today the EU Summit will continue in Brussels and EU leaders will discuss United Kingdom’s separation from the European Union so we expect this to be the highlight of the day and to influence the pair more than the indicator mentioned earlier.


GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher yesterday and volatility remained high but movement slowed down compared to the previous days. 

[Image: POIQMdu.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current climb may extend into the next resistance located at 1.3483 but once and if price gets there, we expect it to start moving on a bearish path again. The first target is 1.3227, followed by the historical low at 1.3119. The oscillators are just exiting oversold, favouring a move into 1.3483 but like we’ve mentioned yesterday, the position of the oscillators is not a clear indication of future direction and it doesn’t hinder a drop even before 1.3483 is reached.

Fundamental Outlook

The EU Summit will be today’s main market mover as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic releases.
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FOREX NEWS: BREXIT FALLOUT BRINGS FED RATE SPECULATION


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar weakened yesterday and this allowed the pair to move up, breaking 1.1100 resistance. Most of the dollar weakness was generated by speculation that the Fed will not raise rates until 2018 to prevent a deeper impact of the UK exit.

[Image: Sw1tFyR.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.1100 opens the door for a move into 1.1150. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity of the latter level and the two combined will create a confluent zone of resistance that will possibly become a good place for the pair to resume downside movement. Of course the geopolitical aspect still remains the most important and price direction will depend mostly on that rather than technical support and resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Flash Estimate version of the Consumer Price Index is released today at 9:00 am GMT and is expected to show a 0.0% change from the previous -0.1%. The release may be mostly overlooked by market participants, especially if the actual value matches analysts’ prediction but under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The Pound recuperated some of the losses and moved higher yesterday, mostly on the back of weakness in the US Dollar, generated by speculation about Fed rates.

[Image: vLqXj9x.jpg]

Technical Outlook

It appears as the weekly gap will be closed soon and the pair may find resistance around 1.3655. If this happens, we expect the bears to regain control of price action and the pair to move below 1.3483; the Stochastic is approaching overbought and this adds to the possibility of movement south. The pair remains high risk.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Final version of the Gross Domestic Product will be released today at 8:30 am GMT. This indicator acts as an overall gauge of economic performance but the Final version is the least important. Nonetheless, higher values than the previous 0.4% can strengthen the Pound but the extent should be limited.
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FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS, BEARS READY TO TAKE BACK CONTROL


EUR/USD


Forex News: European inflation showed slight improvement yesterday and this initially strengthened the Euro, taking the pair into resistance, where the bullish momentum faded and rejection was seen.

[Image: icMmkTV.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance level at 1.1150 combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average created a strong confluence zone that rejected price lower yesterday. The Stochastic shows a bearish cross close to its overbought level and this, combined with the rejection seen at 1.1150, sets the stage for a drop towards 1.0960. On the other hand, if a four hour candle closes above 1.1100, we might see another attempt to break 1.1150 and the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s only notable economic release is the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers regarding business conditions in the manufacturing sector and usually acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Today’s expected value is 51.3, same as previous and higher numbers can bring US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Price action slowed down yesterday and the pair started ranging on the lower time frames. After a timid move above 1.3483, price returned below this level.

[Image: 1Q5wx7Z.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bullish retracement seems exhausted as shown by the return below 1.3483 and this suggests that the bears may step back in, attempting to move the pair towards 1.3227. The Pound is still weakened by UK’s decision to leave the European Union and this favours moves south, probably towards 1.3000 in the medium term. A clear close above 1.3483 would make 1.3655 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released and the anticipated value is 50.0, almost unchanged from the previous 50.1. Higher numbers are indicative of optimism and may strengthen the Pound to a limited extent.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: PREPARE FOR IRREGULAR VOLATILITY AS THE U.S. CELEBRATE INDEPENDENCE DAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Manufacturing PMI released Friday showed a value of 53.2, better than the forecast 51.3 but despite this, the pair climber for most of the day, breaching resistance.

[Image: MSYCuhn.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a long upper wick appeared on the candle that breached the line. This is a sign of rejection that makes us anticipate a drop through 1.1100 and into the bullish trend line seen on the chart above. If 1.1100 support rejects price, we expect a break of the 50 period EMA and 1.1150 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s Independence Day so banks across the United States will be closed and volatility will be affected, especially in the New York session. On the Euro side things are slow as well so we may have an overall ranging day.


GBP/USD

The pair moved back into support but momentum faded and it looks like now both bulls and bears are undecided about the next direction. The economic indicators released Friday went mostly unnoticed.

[Image: 0eduYaX.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The sideways movement seen Friday is likely to continue today so we expect the pair to remain between 1.3227 and 1.3483. On the other hand, a bearish break of 1.3227 support will probably extend into the low at 1.3119. Price direction will also be influenced by the economic data released but the New York session will probably lack major developments due to Independence Day.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI is released, showing the state of the construction sector as perceived by about 170 purchasing managers. The anticipated value is 50.6, slightly lower than the previous 51.2; higher numbers show optimism and usually send the Pound higher.
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FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON POUND AS BOE RELEASES FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT


EUR/USD


Forex News: As expected price action yesterday was slow and this was mostly due to the fact that U.S banks were closed, celebrating Independence Day and on the Euro side no major indicators were released either.

[Image: ulmTQ6r.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The only notable move seen yesterday was a bounce at the bullish trend line. However, at the time of writing, this bounce hasn’t generated a break of resistance and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, running through price. If bullish momentum picks up and 1.1150 is surpassed, we expect a move into 1.1240 during the days to come but this will depend a lot on the economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Factory Orders are released today at 2:00 pm GMT. This is an indicator with a mild impact, that measures changes in the value of orders placed with manufacturers. Higher numbers than the forecast -0.7% usually bring US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Similar to the other pair, the Pound-Dollar had a slow day, with sideways movement and no major developments.

[Image: YqlbXXq.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price remained above 1.3227, moving sideways for the most part of yesterday and this type of behavior usually suggests that a strong move (breakout) is in the making. However, the direction of this potential breakout is hard to anticipate so keep an eye on 1.3227 because a close below it will likely push price into 1.3119. To the upside, 1.3483 remains the first level of interest and although it’s a long travel, price may be able to complete it if volatility is generated by today’s fundamental developments.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 9:30 am GMT the Bank of England will make public the Financial Stability Report and half an hour later, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the report. This document contains the Bank’s point of view regarding overall stability and risks in the financial sector and may contain hints about the direction of monetary policy. The report combined with Carney’s press conference can generate strong movement and potentially irregular price action.
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FOREX NEWS: THE WATERFALL CONTINUES: POUND STRUGGLES TO FIND SUPPORT


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair continued its slow movement yesterday but remained above the bullish trend line. The U.S. Factory Orders came out close to analysts’ expectations and the event did not generate strong impact.

[Image: DJDmTTz.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action crated minor resistance at 1.1186; if this barrier is surpassed soon, we expect a touch of 1.1240 but currently price is testing the bullish trend line and we may see a breakout. If 1.1150 holds and the trend line is broken, we will likely see a move into 1.1100 and even lower. The pair has been moving north for a few days but candles are small and now long wicks appear in their upper side. This is a sign of rejection, thus we slightly favor the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

The Fed will release today at 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes which contain details of their latest meeting and insights into the reasoning that determined the most recent rate decision. More importantly, this document may contain hints about future direction of monetary policy and if this is the case, the US Dollar will move strongly so caution is advised.


GBP/USD

The Pound resumed bearish action yesterday after a period of sideways movement and continued to depreciate to a low of 1.3050. The Financial Stability Report and Carney’s press conference did not help an already weak Pound to rebound.

[Image: lodbkdm.jpg]

Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair had reached a low at 1.3050, breaking the levels seen immediately after the Brexit vote on June 23. This low will probably be surpassed soon and we expect our target of 1.3000 to be reached today. The pair is likely to pause or bounce higher near this strong psychological support but the bullish side is clearly very weak now and the possibility of extended moves north is slim. First resistance may be provided by the zone around 1.3120.

Fundamental Outlook

The pair will be affected today by the technical side and by the U.S. events as the United Kingdom did not schedule major economic releases.
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FOREX NEWS: WITNESSING HISTORY: POUND BELOW 1.2800


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair broke the bullish trend line ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes and once those were released, price moved up to test the recently broken 1.1100. Most of the dollar weakness was generated by the fear that Brexit turbulences may hinder future economic growth.

[Image: nJAcHSN.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is currently testing 1.1100 resistance after showing rejection near 1.1025 but even if resistance is broken, we don’t expect a strong move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The overall bias is bearish considering the geopolitical situation, so we expect a break of 1.1025 minor support and a move towards 1.0960. As an alternate scenario, a break of the 50 period EMA will likely take price above 1.1150.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look into American jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This report is not as important as the Government released data that comes out a day after but still, higher numbers show increased economic activity and usually strengthen the US Dollar. The forecast for today’s release is a change of 158K compared to the previous 173K.


GBP/USD

The Pound is still struggling to find support but failed to do so yesterday and the waterfall continued, with a new low being created at 1.2796.

[Image: iJFSRIV.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We’ve seen another huge drop and a new low created at 1.2796 but signs of rejection have appeared. The massive drop calls for a bullish retracement and both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are oversold, favouring a move up. This being said, the overall bias is clearly bearish and all moves north should be limited.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production is released, showing changes in the total output generated by the manufacturing sector. The expected change is -1.2% compared to the previous 2.3% and higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound but under present conditions, we don’t expect a strong impact.
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FOREX NEWS: ENDING A WILD WEEK WITH A BANG: U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The jobs data released yesterday by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) showed slight improvement compared to previous readings but the event did not have a major impact and the pair ranged for most of the day.

[Image: h2tmO39.jpg]

Technical Outlook

It looks like price found strong resistance at 1.1100 so now we expect it to star moving lower, towards 1.1025. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also above price, angled downwards and this increases the chances of extended moves south but a lot will depend on the American jobs data that’s about to be released.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the Non-Farm Payrolls report is released, showing the change in the number of employed people in the U.S.. This is widely regarded as the most important indicator for the jobs market in the U.S and higher numbers show increased economic activity and suggest that consumer spending will pick up in the near future. The expected number is 174K, a huge increase from last month’s 38K and anything close or above this value will likely strengthen the US Dollar. Volatility usually increases and caution is always advised.


GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher yesterday, which was expected after another massive drop. The greenback wasn’t affected a lot by the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and overall price action was slow compared to the previous days.

[Image: 7ESYwEn.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current climb may extend into the zone around 1.3100 but once and if that happens, we expect the bears to step in and take back control. It’s also possible to see a drop even before 1.3100 is reached but either way, the first bearish target is represented by the 1.2800 zone. A break of the historical low created at 1.2796 will probably trigger an extended move south.

Fundamental Outlook

The pair’s direction will be heavily influenced by the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls but on the Pound side there are no major announcements.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: MARKET IN A RANGE AS INDECISION DRIVES SHORT-TERM PRICE ACTION


EUR/USD


Forex News: U.S. employment showed great improvement as seen from Friday’s NFP that posted a number of 287K, compared to the forecast 175K. However, most of the new jobs were created in the lowest paying sectors and this triggered a whipsaw that took price higher.

[Image: 9IgjRgt.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price jumped up and down at the time of the NFP release but still remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. There is a great degree of indecision as shown by the long wicks of the NFP candle, so we expect the pair to remain between the 50 EMA and 1.1025 for most of today’s trading session. As an alternate scenario, a break of either one of these technical levels will likely trigger an extended move in that direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings are today’s only notable event but these are closed to the press and a formal statement will be released once they have completed. Sometimes, participants talk to press representatives during the day and usually that is a reason for volatility but unless important matters are discussed, we don’t expect strong movement.


GBP/USD

The pair had a slow session Friday compared to the previous days and at the NFP release it behaved erratically, jumping up and down.

[Image: iLRIWv6.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is capped to the upside by 1.3050 and to the downside by 1.2880; these are minor levels of resistance and support and we expect price to remain between them for the most part of today’s trading session. A bullish break of 1.3050 will open the door for 1.3119 and if 1.2880 is surpassed, we expect 1.2796 to be hit. This being said, we don’t believe that price will surpass the outside levels (1.3119 or 1.2796) during today’s trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major events on today’s calendar so we expect price action to be influenced mainly by the technical aspect.
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