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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: THE VOLATILE PERIOD CONTINUES WITH THE RELEASE OF U.S. RETAIL SALES, BRITISH CPI


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday we had a slow day from an economic perspective as no major indicators were released, so price was influenced mainly by the technical aspect.

[Image: tPJxDXe.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced almost perfectly at 1.1240 support and is now testing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, trying to break it to the upside. The oscillators are agreeing with a break and if this comes true, we are likely to see a push into the potential resistance at 1.1335. If the bulls don’t manage to break the 50 EMA, the pair is headed towards the zone around 1.1200.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Retail Sales numbers are released today at 12:30 pm GMT, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. This type of sales represent the main part of the entire consumer spending, which is the main reason why this indicator has a high impact; values above the forecast 0.4% (previous 1.3%) usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair continued its highly volatile movement characterized by fast whipsaws and showed a strong reversal after initially moving lower.

[Image: MGo4ecX.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After last week’s big drop, a bullish retracement was a likely scenario but the next move remains uncertain, considering the fundamental environment and the fact that the Brexit referendum is drawing closer. The current move may extend into 1.4350 but there we expect bearish action to resume; if the pair moves quickly below 1.4230, the next target will be represented by the minor support created at 1.4115.

Fundamental Outlook

Important British inflation data is released today at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Consumer Price Index. Current inflation is considered too low and a higher reading for today’s indicator would bring Pound strength; the forecast is a 0.4% change while the previous was 0.3%.
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FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP, IT’S FED DAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The greenback strengthened yesterday, helped by a better than expected value of the U.S. Retail Sales and as a result, we had a bearish session and support was broken.

[Image: 5YwPcbv.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced nicely at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and continued lower, through 1.1240 and 1.1210 support levels. The bias is bearish but the Relative Strength Index is touching its 30 level, which suggests an oversold position and favours a move back above the mentioned levels; however the Stochastic is not yes oversold so the downside may continue for a while, possibly into 1.1150 support.

Fundamental Outlook

Key events take place today and that’s why we expect price action to be choppy until the release. At 6:00 pm GMT the Fed announces their decision on the interest rate and this will be accompanied by a FOMC Rate Statement (containing details of the reasons that determined the rate decision) and followed at 6:30 pm GMT by a press conference held by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen. The rate is not expected to change this month (currently <0.50%) but any hints about a nearing hike will likely generate a lot of strong movement.


GBP/USD

British inflation numbers came out lower than analysts had anticipated, as shown by yesterday’s CPI release (actual 0.3%, forecast 0.4%) and this combined with better than expected U.S. data, generated another bearish session.

[Image: E7tXNQZ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After bouncing at 1.4320 resistance the pair started to move lower, pushed by disappointing British inflation data but also by a shaky fundamental environment in the UK. However, the current move seems exhausted and both oscillators are oversold, so we may see another move north. This pair continues to carry an increased degree of risk so we recommend caution; the main levels to watch are 1.4230 and 1.4050.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Claimant Count Change is announced today at 8:30 am GMT and is expected to show -0.1K compared to the previous -2.4K. This indicator tracks changes in the number of unemployed people who asked for social benefits during the previous month and usually a higher number shows a slowdown in economic activity, thus weakening the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT. US DOLLAR WEAKNESS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED


EUR/USD


Forex News: Ahead of the Fed release the pair showed choppy movement, with a bullish bias but the dovish speech delivered by Chairwoman Yellen weakened the greenback and drove prices higher. The rate remained unchanged as expected but the FOMC Statement showed that a potential Brexit was factored into the decision.

[Image: aXwGsEP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current move up shows rejection at 1.1300 minor resistance and so far the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is not broken to the upside. This means that a reversal here is a distinct possibility and if that happens, we will see another run for 1.1210 (1.1200) support. A break of the moving average and the mentioned resistance will open the door for a continuation into 1.1385.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we remain on the US Dollar side for the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index, which is one of the main gauges of inflation. Current inflation levels are considered too low, so a rise would most likely bring some strength to the greenback. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT, with an anticipated change of 0.3% compared to the previous 0.4%.


GBP/USD

Price retraced higher during the first part of yesterday’s trading session but the Fed events triggered mixed reaction and choppy movement, without clear direction.

Technical Outlook

Overall yesterday was a bullish day but this was expected due to the oversold condition of both oscillators and on top of that, the resistance at 1.4230 is still intact. This makes us believe that the move up was just a needed retracement, in part triggered by a dovish Fed and that price will soon resume bearish movement. It’s possible to see a test of 1.4230 resistance but if it holds, the pair is headed south, towards 1.4050.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s a busy day for the Pound as the British Retail Sales numbers are announced at 8:30 am GMT and are expected to show a 0.3% change while the previous was 1.3%. This type of sales represent a major part of the entire economy, thus higher numbers show increased activity and usually strengthen the Pound.

Later at 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision as well as the council member’s votes on the rate. Even if no change is expected (current 0.50%), the event almost always creates volatility so caution is recommended.
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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT SHATTERED AS THE US DOLLAR WINS THE SHORT-TERM BATTLE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar ignored all economic indicators and rallied sharply against most of its competitors, triggering a move south of more than 150 pips and breaking support with ease.

[Image: W1wqQ1k.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s strong move opens the door for a touch of the key support located at 1.1100 and is now clear that the US Dollar has the upper hand in this currency war. If the mentioned support is touched, we expect slight bounces to the upside, followed by a break of said level. To the upside, the first potential resistance is located at 1.1150 followed by 1.1200 and before the assault on 1.1100, we may see a test of these levels.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable economic indicator is the U.S. Building Permits, released at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show 1.15M compared to the previous 1.12M. The report shows the annualized number of building permits and acts as a leading indicator of activity in the construction sector. A higher than anticipated reading usually generates US Dollar strength but sometimes the release has a mild impact.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England maintained the rate unchanged at 0.50% and the members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to do so. After an initial period of uncertainty the pair dropped substantially lower, breaching key support.

[Image: F8D4edK.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s strong move and the breach of 1.4050 show that the bears are in control of the market, making us anticipate a move lower, probably towards the low at 1.3835. This move will not be completed during the course of one day (unless spectacular events take place) and price shows rejection off of 1.4050 support so we expect a pause here or even slight retracements to the upside before another attempt to clearly break 1.4050.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today, thus the pair’s direction will be affected by the U.S. Building Permits release and by the technical side.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: CURRENCIES ON SHAKY GROUND AS WE ENTER BREXIT WEEK


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the pair continued the bullish impulse started a day before and tested the resistance at 1.1300. The week ended close to its opening price and the most important happening was the huge whipsaw that totally reversed direction.

[Image: dIDQxRA.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After piercing 1.1150, price bounced and moved strongly to the upside and stopped in close vicinity of 1.1300 resistance. This irregular movement leaves little room for an accurate technical prediction so our stance is neutral until we see a clear break of either 1.1300 or 1.1240. A true break should be followed by a re-test of the level and if this happens, price is likely to continue in the direction of the break.

Fundamental Outlook

Today no major announcements are scheduled by either Europe or the United States so we expect a slow Monday, with price action influenced by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The Pound edged above resistance Friday, without any apparent reason, thus finishing the week higher. This pair continues to be high-risk and as we saw last week, all moves can be quickly reversed.

[Image: rZYQnNj.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair sits above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the short term control belongs to the bulls but this doesn’t necessarily mean that today we will see further advances north. The resistance at 1.4350 was broken Friday so if price doesn’t move below it today, we expect a touch of 1.4400. The Stochastic is overbought and the Relative Strength Index is approaching its 70 level, so a touch of 1.4400 may be followed by a bounce lower. 

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will be mainly influenced by the technical side because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today.
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FOREX NEWS: DRAGHI AND YELLEN TAKE CENTRE STAGE, TESTIFYING ON MONETARY POLICY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The market opened with a weekly gap generated mostly by Brexit turmoil over the weekend. Throughout the day the bullish action continued until price came in close vicinity of resistance.

[Image: 1a1rDN9.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After the near touch of 1.1385 resistance, the pair bounced lower and is currently testing 1.1335. If the bears can take price below this level, we expect it to also move below 1.1300 to close the gap. Usually gaps are closed (price retraces to where the gap originated) but the time needed for such a move to complete is not known. The oscillators are overbought, favouring a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey comes out, expected to show a figure of 5.1, lower than the previous 6.4. This is a survey of 275 German professional investors and analysts that tries to gauge their outlook regarding economic conditions during the next 6 months; usually a higher number is beneficial for the Euro.

ECB President Mario Draghi will testify today at 1:00 pm GMT before European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee with the topic being monetary policy. It’s an important event that is likely to trigger some wild swings, depending on the President’s attitude and answers.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will also testify today at 2:00 pm GMT before the Senate Banking Committee on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. This is an important event and can affect the US Dollar, depending on her attitude and answers; caution is recommended because volatility may be irregular during these two events.


GBP/USD

The Pound was affected by more Brexit polls, which this time showed that the balance is slowly tipping in favour of the ‘remain’ side. A big bullish gap was created and the pair continued higher throughout the day.

[Image: lFMcdhC.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The recent climb took the pair into 1.4650 resistance and now both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are overbought. Under normal circumstances this would call for a bearish retracement but considering the current fundamental environment, everything is possible so our outlook is neutral and we recommend extreme caution if trading this pair.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic indicators today but any type of Brexit talk is likely to trigger strong moves. Fed Chair Yellen’s speech will also have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR RECOVERS AHEAD OF YELLEN’S SECOND TESTIMONY


EUR/USD


Forex News: Despite a better than expected value for the German ZEW survey, the Euro depreciated against the US Dollar throughout yesterday. Also ECB President Draghi hinted towards adding further stimulus if needed and this aided the drop.

[Image: c1jAzEv.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The weekly gap was closed yesterday and the pair slid through 1.1300 and through the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, reaching 1.1240 support. The oscillators still show good downside momentum and are far from oversold so the current impulse is likely to continue below 1.1200 and towards 1.1150. On the other hand, a move above the 50 EMA will open the door for a bullish push close to 1.1335.

Fundamental Outlook

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will testify again today at 2:00 pm GMT, but this time before the House Financial Services Committee. The topic is the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and caution is recommended as her testimony is likely to influence the US Dollar although yesterday we didn’t see a huge impact.


GBP/USD

The pair continued its climb and found resistance in the area around 1.4765; price action continues to be influenced by Brexit turmoil and movement is still choppy.

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Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.4765 combined with the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic may trigger a move below 1.4650 and into 1.4565. As noted throughout the week, the Pound remains heavily influenced by Brexit polls and speculation so the technical aspect is secondary and our bias is neutral. Caution is still recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

The pair’s direction will be affected by the testimony of Fed Chair Yellen as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major indicator releases for the day.
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FOREX NEWS: HISTORICAL DAY FOR UNITED KINGDOM AND THE EUROPEAN UNION


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair erased the losses incurred a day before and reached 1.1335 resistance but soon bounced lower during Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.

[Image: d7tiRmC.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The long wick seen in the upper part of the candle and the bounce at 1.1335 resistance show that the pair might be headed for 1.1240 in the near future. The first barrier in front of falling price is the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but as mentioned numerous times, today is a key day for the United Kingdom and for the European Union so the technical will be almost completely overshadowed.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s price action will be heavily influenced by the Brexit referendum and all other releases will be secondary. That being said, it’s still important to mention the U.S. New Home Sales scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show 561K compared to the previous 619K. The indicator tracks the annualized number of homes sold during the previous month and usually higher figures are beneficial to the US Dollar but the extent is often limited.


GBP/USD

The pair’s jerky movement continued yesterday as price hovered near 1.4650 before shooting up and bouncing back once 1.4765 was touched.

[Image: CbWjI4m.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Considering the historical event that takes place today, our technical bias is neutral. The referendum will take centre stage and the technical aspect will be secondary. 

Fundamental Outlook

Needless to say that the EU membership referendum is the day’s main event and that it will have a huge impact on the markets in general and the Pound in particular. The citizens of the United Kingdom will vote on whether they want UK to remain a part of the European Union or not and the general consensus is that a ‘remain’ result will strengthen the Pound. However, this is not a certainty and extreme caution is advised.
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FOREX NEWS: THE AFTERMATH


EUR/USD


Forex News: Although at the time of writing an official result to the British referendum was not made public, the Euro and Pound climbed to new highs during the day. Volatility was high and movement irregular, as expected.

[Image: 7iymHTk.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Today’s price direction will still be influenced by the effects of the referendum, so we still expect high volatility. The levels to watch are 1.1450 as resistance and 1.1335 as support but our bias remains neutral considering the shaky fundamental scene.

Fundamental Outlook

The German IFO Business Climate is released at 8:00 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 7,000 businesses about current and future economic conditions. Under normal circumstances, higher values for this survey strengthen the Euro but today’s impact is harder to anticipate than usual; the forecast is 107.6, almost identical to the previous 107.7.

On the US Dollar side we have the release of the CORE Durable Goods Orders, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. This version of the indicator tracks changes in the value of orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years but excludes from calculation transportation items. The expected change is 0.1% and higher percentages usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair climbed in the first part of yesterday but most of the gains were negated in the afternoon. Price action was unpredictable, with massive swings.

[Image: 7TqrKqG.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After reaching a high at 1.4946 the pair retraced to 1.4765, with the Relative Strength Index showing overbought. However the next move remains uncertain, especially because an official result of the referendum is not yet known at the time of writing. Our position remains neutral and we recommend further caution.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases but the Pound will be affected by the aftermath of the referendum.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: MARKETS STILL WEIGH THE BREXIT IMPACT


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the official results of the Brexit referendum became public but exit polls were already showing that the ‘Leave’ side won. The reverberation in the market was huge, with both the Euro and Pound weakening severely.

[Image: uJAmg1k.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After reaching the low at 1.0911 the pair retraced higher and is now hovering close to 1.1100. Considering the historical event that occurred last week, the short term direction is difficult to anticipate but there’s an overall wave of pessimism and this will probably lead to more downside movement. We may also see a slowdown compared to Friday’s price action.

Fundamental Outlook

We don’t have anything important on today’s economic calendar but price action will still be heavily influenced by Britain’s separation from the European Union and volatility will be irregular.


GBP/USD

The United Kingdom decided it will no longer be a part of the European Union. This will hold the headlines for quite a while and we will surely see massive swings in the near future. Friday the pair dropped more than 1,700 pips on the back of Pound weakness.

[Image: tWIizt4.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair retraced after reaching a low at 1.3227, which is a normal thing after such a huge move but considering the overall geopolitical environment, we expect the downside movement to resume. Volatility is still sky-high so stop losses and position sizes should be adjusted accordingly but this pair remains high risk and extreme caution should be used.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases today so price action will be driven by the technical aspect and the aftermath of the Brexit.
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