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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY PICKS UP AS INFLATION NUMBERS COME OUT FOR THE U.S. AND U.K


EUR/USD


Forex News: Trading was slow yesterday but the pair showed a timid retracement to the upside, which is currently testing the level at 1.1335. The economic calendar was light, without major events.

[Image: yU5xEka.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index touched their respective oversold levels and price bounced higher, touching 1.1335. However, the short term control belongs to the bears and now price is re-testing the recently broken 1.1335 level; this is a good place for the pair to resume downside movement but the oscillators are just coming out of oversold and this favors a continuation of the current move up. If this is the case, we don’t believe that the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will be broken to the upside and instead we expect a bounce lower if price gets there.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Consumer Price Index shows changes in prices paid by consumers for their purchases; this indicator is one of the main gauges of inflation and usually has a strong impact on the US Dollar, with higher values strengthening it. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.4% compared to the previous 0.1% and the time of release is 12:30 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

After reaching the support zone between 1.4350 and 1.4320 the Pound bounced higher but overall we didn’t have substantial developments yesterday and the trading session was rather slow.

[Image: rLgEbI8.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We expect the current bounce to extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but once this type of resistance is touched, the probability of a move down will increase. On the other hand, if the pair resumes downside movement right away, we expect it to break 1.4350 – 1.4320 zone and to make its way towards 1.4230 (probably this destination will not be reached in one day).

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the United States, the United Kingdom releases its Consumer Price Index today. The forecast is a change of 0.5% (same as previous) and higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound; the scheduled time of release is 8:30 am GMT.
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FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES TO BE RELEASED, HEAVY US DOLLAR MOVEMENT EXPECTED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The market showed indecision yesterday, moving down when the U.S. posted better than expected inflation data and then making a complete 180 degree turn, heading higher above resistance.

[Image: xmueL07.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.1335 acts as good resistance so far, with several candles bouncing off of it and this makes it an important level for short term price action. A bullish break will most likely extend above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and into 1.1385, while a bearish bounce will open the door for a move into 1.1250 support. The oscillators still favour a move up but don’t show strong momentum and could turn at any moment.

Fundamental Outlook

The FOMC Meeting Minutes are released today at 6:00 pm GMT and this will be the day’s main event. The document shows details of the latest FOMC meeting and often contains hints about future rate changes. If this is the case, we expect heavy movement on all US Dollar related pairs.


GBP/USD

The British CPI released yesterday disappointed, showing just a 0.3% change (forecast 0.5%) and as a result the Pound gave back some of the earlier gains.

[Image: FjuZQBF.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, found resistance at 1.4525 and then bounced lower. Currently it is testing the moving average from above and the two oscillators are starting to turn downwards. All this makes us anticipate a bearish trading session, with 1.4350 as target. On the other hand, if the pair remains above the 50 EMA, we are likely to see another attempt to break 1.4525.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Claimant Count Change is scheduled for release today at 8:30 am GMT. This indicator tracks changes in the number of unemployed people that asked for social help and usually, higher numbers than the anticipated 4.0K are detrimental for the Pound because they suggest a future decrease in consumer spending and economic activity.
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FOREX NEWS: FED MINUTES HINT ABOUT A JUNE RATE HIKE. THE US DOLLAR STRENGTHENS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro-dollar pair showed mixed direction ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes but the greenback strengthened once they were released. Most of this came from increased optimism that a June rate hike is a distinct possibility.

[Image: MlVQm5Y.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The hints about a potential rate hike are likely to generate further US Dollar strength and thus a break of 1.1210. If this is the case, the next support zone is located at 1.1150 and may be reached even during today’s trading session. The fact that the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are approaching oversold may play against this scenario, pushing price higher once 1.1210 is touched; however, for the time being we favour the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes out, offering details about the health of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia district. This survey has a medium impact on the US Dollar but usually, higher numbers than the anticipated 3.2 (previous -1.6) are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Pound soared yesterday, following a poll that showed that 55% of surveyed individuals are against a potential Brexit and only 37% wanting to leave. The FOMC Minutes erased some of the Pound gains but nothing substantial.

[Image: nBAPwce.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.4650 was threatened yesterday but the US Dollar is likely to continue to draw strength from optimism about a June rate hike. Also, the oscillators are both overbought, showing that the pair travelled too far, too fast and thus increasing the chances of a bearish move. If 1.4565 can be broken soon, we expect the pair to head into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, otherwise the battle for 1.4650 is still on.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the total volume of sales made through retail stores. This is considered a high-impact indicator because retail sales represent a major part of the entire consumer spending. Higher values than the anticipated 0.6% (previous -1.3%) usually trigger Pound strength and the opposite is true for lower figures.
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FOREX NEWS: FINANCE LEADERS GATHER AS THE G7 MEETINGS START


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar continued to strengthen throughout yesterday’s trading session and the pair dropped below 1.1210 support,

[Image: TavzGrB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.1210 is an important victory for the bears and opens the door for 1.1150 support but now price has moved above the level so we may be dealing with a false break. If this is the case, we will likely see an extended retracement to the upside, probably into 1.1250. This scenario is supported by the oversold condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the Group of Seven (G7) Meetings start and will last throughout the weekend. These meetings are attended by central bankers and finance ministers from the 7 member states and can have a strong impact on the financial markets but the effect cannot be anticipated, thus caution is recommended during the day.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to strengthen, helped by a better than expected reading of the British Retail Sales (actual 1.3%, forecast 0.6%), but bounced lower after a failed attempt to break 1.4650.

[Image: PbPm5Nj.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bearish bounce seen around 1.4650 combined with the overbought condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index is likely to trigger an extended move south, with 1.4565 as first target, followed by 1.4525. Both the Pound and the US Dollar are strong at the moment and this may generate a stalemate, where price remains between 1.4650 and 1.4565.

Fundamental Outlook

British personalities will attend the G7 Meetings and this may trigger increased volatility on Pound related pairs but as mentioned before, the effect is hard to anticipate and will depend on the matters discussed.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS CONTINUE THEIR ATTACK, LIMITED UPSIDE CORRECTIONS EXPECTED


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s price movement was mixed and the pair stayed close to 1.1200, bouncing above and below it. The economic calendar lacked major events and this contributed to the slow movement.

[Image: HzYLd0j.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair lacks clear direction and lingers around 1.1200 while investors decide the next move. The latest trend is bearish and we expect a continuation after the current retracement is complete but the Stochastic is just exiting oversold, heading up and so is the Relative Strength Index; this favours a move into 1.1250 but we don’t expect this barrier to be broken to the upside today. 

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light but two notable events are the release of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (forecast 51.9) and Services PMI (forecast 53.3), both scheduled at 8:00 am GMT. These surveys are leading indicators of economic health, so higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the impact is often mild if the actual value matches the forecast or comes very close.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar continued to strengthen against the Pound Friday and the pair descended below 1.4525; overall the session was bearish, without any significant upside movement.

[Image: KzuFlDH.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Today’s highlight will be the battle for the 50 period Exponential Moving Average: if the bears manage to break it, we will probably see a move close to 1.4400 and otherwise we will likely see a move towards 1.4565 (probably these targets will not be reached during the course of one day). The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index show good downwards momentum, favouring a break of the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound’s direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today.
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FOREX NEWS: GERMAN ZEW, EUROGROUP MEETINGS, BRITISH INFLATION REPORT HEARINGS – VOLATILITY GUARANTEED


EUR/USD


Forex News: European data came out close to analysts’ expectations, thus the impact on the market was moderate; nonetheless, the pair showed bearish movement, breaking immediate support.

[Image: GKkHGLl.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price broke the support at 1.1210 and now seems to be headed towards the next bearish target: 1.1150. The Stochastic attempts to a bearish crossover and the Relative Strength Index is also heading south, increasing the chances of a move into support but a quick move above 1.1210 would invalidate such a scenario and would make 1.1250 the likely destination for the day.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey is released today at 9:00 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 275 German analysts and professional investors regarding a 6-month outlook. Due to their jobs, they are well informed and this makes their opinions matter more so a higher value than the forecast 12.1 will likely strengthen the Euro. Also, the Eurogroup Meetings start today and this is another reason for increased volatility.


GBP/USD

The pair showed choppy movement yesterday, trying to breakout but failing on several occasions. For now price is still between support and resistance but a true breakout is more probable.

[Image: 0gt1eWI.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price bounced lower at 1.4525 and higher at 1.4475, moving above and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so the next direction is not decided yet. The Stochastic is crossing upwards below its 20 level, hinting about a potential move up but the Relative Strength Index is still in the middle of the range, without clear direction. All this makes our bias neutral until a strong breakout occurs; if the recently broken level will be tested from the other side, resulting in a bounce, this will further confirm the break.

Fundamental Outlook

The Inflation Report Hearings take place today at 9:00 am GMT; during these hearings, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify on inflation and economic outlook before the Treasury Committee of the Parliament. The event can generate strong movement, but especially so if the discussions touch the currency market topic.
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FOREX NEWS: CURRENCY WARS: US DOLLAR GAINS AGAINST EURO, LOSES AGAINST POUND


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro weakened yesterday, mostly due to a much worse than expected German ZEW Survey. The session was bearish and the 1.1150 target was reached.

[Image: XfLh2Ig.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index has been showing bullish divergence (price is making lower lows while the RSI is just bouncing on its 30 level) for a long time and this makes us anticipate a bullish session. However, if moves up occur, this should be considered just a correction, not a trend reversal as long as the pair is still trading below 1.1210. If the pair continues lower, the next target is the support at 1.1085.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day is the release of another German survey: the IFO Business Climate. About 7,000 businesses are asked to give their assessment regarding economic conditions as well as a 6 month outlook. Because of its large sample, this survey is highly respected and higher numbers than the anticipated 106.9 strengthen the Euro; the time of release is 8:00 am GMT.


GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened on the back of improved inflation expectations as shown by the Inflation Report Hearings, so the pair had a bullish session, breaking key resistance.

[Image: 9gveHPL.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.4565 was clearly broken yesterday and the two oscillators show good upside momentum so we can expect to see further movement north, probably into 1.4650. If by the time the said resistance is reached, the oscillators enter overbought, we expect to see a bounce lower. If 1.4650 is broken, the next destination is the high at 1.4765 but this will probably take more than one day.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today thus price direction will me mostly decided by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: POUND BREAKS RESISTANCE, CORRECTIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF BRITISH GDP DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had a very choppy day yesterday, without any substantial advances to either side; this was mostly due to a lacklustre fundamental environment and the fact that the only notable indicator of the day showed a figure close to forecast.

[Image: mzWc43V.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair hovered above and below 1.1150 for almost the entire day and this is a sign that the bulls and bears are taking a breather and don’t show much interest. We still maintain our view that a bullish retracement is coming, because the pair has travelled too far without a proper correction and both the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are oversold. If the correction occurs, we are likely to see a move close to 1.1210, otherwise 1.1085 remains the target.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day is the release of the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years and higher figures than the forecast 0.3% (previous 0.8%) show increased economic activity, potentially strengthening the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued its advance, scoring another victory against the greenback and breaking 1.4650 with authority.

[Image: YI3j614.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The break seen yesterday will probably draw in more buyers who in turn will take price higher in the long run. However, at the moment both the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are overbought, calling for a bounce lower. The key resistance at 1.4765 sits in front of rising price and this combined with the position of the oscillators, will probably trigger a move lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event for the Pound today is the release of the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 0.4%, same as previous. This version of the GDP has less importance than the Preliminary and more than the Final version, but usually, numbers above expectations strengthen the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR FIGHTS BACK, FUELED BY U.S. GDP DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: The release of the Durable Goods orders whipsawed the market and we saw US Dollar weakness although the indicator posted much better than expected numbers. The pair’s climb was partly due to technical reasons as well.

[Image: 16Ni9pc.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price breached the resistance at 1.1210 and almost touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but is already showing signs of weakness. Downside movement is likely to resume but a close above 1.1210 and the 50 EMA will show that the retracement is still not over and that we will probably see a move into 1.12500. When the oscillators will start to turn south, the probability of a move lower will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released, offering an assessment of the entire economic performance in the United States. Higher numbers than the expected 0.8% usually trigger strength for the US Dollar but as seen from yesterday’s release, caution is recommended because market participants may interpret things differently. Also today, the G7 (Group of Seven) Meetings start in Kashiko Island and this is another reason for increased volatility and possibly irregular movement.


GBP/USD

The British Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product released yesterday, matched analysts’ expectations and the event went mostly unnoticed. The entire day lacked strong movement and the pair retreated slightly.

[Image: xCcqzHH.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bull run seems exhausted now with both Stochastic and Relative Strength Index curving downwards and coming out of overbought. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will see a strong drop but certainly increases the chances of such a move. The first lower barrier is located at 1.4650, while to the upside 1.4765 remains strong resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar doesn’t hold anything important for the Pound, so the pair’s direction will be affected by the G7 Meetings and of course, by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. BANKS CLOSED, GERMAN CPI STEALS THE SHOW


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the bears scored another victory and took price below support; the U.S. Gross Domestic Product showed the anticipated change of 0.8%, which was better than the previous and this helped the US Dollar. 

[Image: XmwpiMG.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We expect the current move to continue until 1.1085 is touched but the Relative Strength Index is just entering oversold so a bounce higher is highly probable if the mentioned support is reached. To the upside, 1.1150 is the first potential resistance but today we are likely to have a slow day if the German inflation data doesn’t show a substantial difference compared to the forecast.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the German Prelim Consumer Price Index is announced and this will be the main event of the day. It measures changes in inflation and higher values than the expected 0.3% (previous -0.4%) will likely strengthen the Euro. U.S. banks are closed in observance of Memorial Day and no economic indicators are released.


GBP/USD

The positive change posted by the U.S. Gross Domestic Product showed its effect and the pair descended Friday below the immediate support at 1.4650, generating a bearish session.

[Image: 2b5jTnH.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We anticipate a slow day, with price trapped between the resistance at 1.4650 and the support at 1.4565. A break of these technical barriers is less likely because banks in the United Kingdom and the United States are closed due to holidays and this will trigger irregular price action and possibly alternating volatility. If price does move above or below the levels, we may be dealing with a false break, followed by a move back inside.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the UK celebrates Spring Bank Holiday and because of this, no major economic announcements are made; it’s also possible that we will see choppy, irregular movement.
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