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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: KEY RESISTANCE SHATTERED. TRUE BREAK OF FALSE ALARM?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Mario Draghi’s speech gave a boost to the Euro yesterday and a disappointing U.S. Manufacturing PMI weakened the greenback, thus creating the perfect ingredients for a break of key resistance which occurred early in the day.

[Image: TqK7Gwb.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Despite the overbought condition signaled by both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index, the pair continued higher yesterday, gaining momentum. This shows that the power of the buyers is increasing and hints that future upside movement may occur; the first resistance is located at yesterday’s high – 1.1532 – but a correction to the downside is now very likely. If this correction will not break below 1.1450, we expect 1.1532 to be taken out soon.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light today for both the Euro and the US Dollar so we expect price behavior to be dictated by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar weakened against the Pound as well yesterday but later in the afternoon (GMT time), some of the pair’s gains were erased and signs of rejection became clear.

[Image: Ez9ZE8D.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action broke above the key level at 1.4650 and created minor resistance at 1.4695. Later in the day the pair retraced lower creating a long upper candle wick that may hint about an end of the uptrend. If the sellers manage to take price back below 1.4650, then yesterday’s movement can be considered a false break of resistance and this will most likely result in an extended move to the downside. On the other hand, a break of 1.4695 would show bull strength and would suggest that we will see further movement north.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom releases today at 8:30 am GMT the first survey in a series of three: the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector, regarding business conditions in said sector. Numbers above the anticipated 51.3 (previous 51.0) show optimism and usually bring Pound strength.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TRIES TO FIGHT BACK AHEAD OF ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro continued its assault yesterday, proving that the break of 1.1450 was indeed a real one. The economic calendar was light but the session didn’t lack volatility.

[Image: LwY7mfo.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s bull run found a top (at least a temporary one) at 1.1615 but now it looks like the overbought condition signalled by the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index is finally starting to push price lower. The last few days have been very volatile so today we may see a slower day and we don’t expect the pair to print a new high. First potential support zone is located around 1.1450 but it’s a long distance to travel in a day so we don’t anticipate a touch of this level.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look into U.S. employment situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a report that shows fluctuations in the number of new jobs created during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government. The indicator is less important than the Non-Farm Payrolls released 2 days later but the impact is strong nonetheless, with higher numbers than the forecast 205K being beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI released yesterday failed to surpass or even meet analysts’ expectations and as a result the Pound gave back most of the gains achieved during the last days. Now the pair is trading again below 1.4650, a level that acted as strong resistance in the past.

[Image: rKMKnAh.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The fall seen yesterday brought price very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and to the level at 1.4565. If the uptrend is going to continue, we will probably see a bounce higher in this zone but a bearish break of the moving average would show that maybe a new downtrend is about to start. If this is the case, the first bearish target will become 1.4475, otherwise we may see another attempt to move above 1.4650.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI comes out at 8:30 am GMT, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about business conditions in the Construction sector. The anticipated number is 54.1, almost identical to the previous 54.2; higher values show optimism and usually take the pair higher.
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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT THREATENED. IS THE BULL RUN OVER?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. jobs data posted yesterday disappointed but despite this, the US Dollar strengthened against its peers and the pair headed lower towards support, generating a bearish day.

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Technical Outlook

The worse than expected U.S. data triggered just a brief moment of upside movement but soon after the pair continued on its downward path. This shows that the sellers are starting to enter the market and also that the US Dollar still possesses enough strength to threaten support. The first potential barrier in front of falling prices is 1.1450, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and we expect at least one of them to be reached today. Bull run over?

Fundamental Outlook

Most European banks will be closed today in observance of Ascension Day. No major indicators will be released in Europe and the same is true for the United States so we expect a potentially slow session.


GBP/USD

The greenback strengthened against the Pound as well and managed to break 1.4565, heading for 1.4475. The British Construction PMI didn’t meet analysts’ expectations and this contributed to the overall bearish movement.

[Image: 5CyUhNR.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is showing some signs of rejection at the current support (1.4475) and the Stochastic has already reached oversold so we may see some sort of bullish bounce. If this will be the case, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will become the first upper target, followed by 1.4565. Both are good places where the downside movement can resume but a bullish break would show that the buyers are not ready to give up their control.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI comes out at 8:30 am GMT, offering hints about the state of the services sector as viewed by purchasing managers from said sector. The anticipated number is 53.6 (previous 53.7) but usually this survey only creates strong movement if the actual value differs substantially from the forecast.
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS EXTEND GAINS AHEAD OF KEY NON-FARM PAYROLLS DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday we had another session dominated by the U.S. Dollar and we saw the bears score an important victory by breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the downside. The fundamental scene was calm, without major economic releases.

[Image: fZwLDkd.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is now trading below 1.1450 and below the 50 period EMA so we can say that the US Dollar made a spectacular comeback and that it’s very possible to see further downside movement. However, the pair traveled a long distance without retracement so the probability of a bullish correction is now greater. This potential correction is likely to touch the moving average or the level at 1.1450 and if a bearish bounce occurs here, the uptrend is probably over and the pair will head towards 1.1335.

Fundamental Outlook

The technical side will be overshadowed today by the release of the most important U.S. jobs indicator: the Non-Farm Employment Change (also known as Non-Farm Payrolls), scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The report tracks changes in the number of new jobs created during the previous month and higher numbers than the forecast 203K usually create US Dollar strength, thus a move down for the pair. Caution is recommended because volatility increases almost always at the time of this release.


GBP/USD

The Pound had a mixed day, with a worse than expected Services PMI but support couldn’t be broken decisively and overall we saw choppy price action.

[Image: DE4ValJ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is trapped between the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.4475. This support was breached yesterday but price soon returned above it, showing that it’s time for a breather before the next move. This stalemate will most likely come to an end today when the U.S. jobs data is released but until that happens, we don’t expect major developments.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases so the main focus will be the NFP and its result will likely influence the pair’s direction.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: BULLS FAIL TO CAPITALIZE ON DISAPPOINTING NFP, CLASSIC ‘BOUNCE OR BREAK’ SCENARIO IN PLAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report disappointed Friday, showing a figure of only 160K compared to the forecast 203K. The US Dollar initially lost ground against the Euro but recovered soon after and the pair finished the day almost to the exact place it started it.

[Image: 4p5mXPr.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Currently price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the bulls couldn’t capitalize on disappointing U.S. data. This shows that the US Dollar is appealing to investors and that we may see bearish price action as long as 1.1450 is resistance. However, the oversold condition of the Stochastic warns that we may see a move up, but the Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme condition so the picture is mixed. The key level for today is 1.1385; a break will make 1.1335 the first target while a bounce will probably take the pair back into the zone around 1.1450.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Factory Orders are released today at 6:00 am GMT, showing changes in the value of orders placed with factories. The anticipated change is 0.7%, better than the previous -1.2% and higher numbers are beneficial to the Euro but the impact of this indicator is often muted. Also today the Eurogroup Meetings take place, attended by personalities from the financial and political scene. The meetings are closed to the press but sometimes participants talk to journalists and this may generate some volatility.


GBP/USD

The pair behaved erratically Friday at the time of the NFP release and tried to push above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but bounced lower eventually.

[Image: eFk2BIz.jpg]

Technical Outlook

It looks like the bears are winning the battle but the worse than expected U.S. jobs data is likely to weaken the US Dollar. On top of that, both oscillators are close to their respective oversold levels so the Pound bulls are likely to push the pair higher. If this is the case, the most important barrier will be represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but if it cannot be surpassed, we expect bearish action until 1.4350 is reached.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major news releases today so the main focus will be on the technical aspect. Note that the Eurogroup Meetings may have an effect on the pair, thus caution is recommended.
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FOREX NEWS: LACKLUSTRE FUNDAMENTAL SCENE MAKES WAY FOR TECHNICAL MOVES. BULLISH CORRECTIONS EXPECTED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair hesitated yesterday and stalled around the level at 1.1385 despite better than German Factory Orders numbers. Some volatility was seen later in the afternoon but no major advances were made.

[Image: EiW1uJW.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We still maintain a neutral bias until either 1.1385 or the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken. Currently control doesn’t belong to either side price and is trapped between the mentioned support and resistance but the oscillators are close to oversold and this slightly tilts the balance in favour of the bulls. A move above the moving average will likely find resistance at 1.1450 and a bearish break of 1.1385 would make 1.1335 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

FOMC Member William Dudley will speak today at 7:15 am GMT in Zurich about the international monetary system. Although the discussion is not strictly related to the financial market, some volatility may be generated, especially considering that the rest of the day lacks major economic releases.


GBP/USD

The pair remained below 1.4475 yesterday and even tested the level from below, turning it into resistance. The day lacked major headlines and most of the movement was generated by the technical aspect.

[Image: VTvhrUD.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Now that price bounced lower at 1.4475, thus confirming it as resistance, we expect the bearish movement to continue until 1.4350 is touched. Once and if price gets here, it’s very possible to see a move back into higher territory, mainly because the current move down is overextended (as shown by the oversold condition of the two oscillators) and a bullish correction is due.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator is the British Goods Trade Balance, scheduled for release at 8:30 am GMT. The indicator tracks the difference between imported and exported goods and usually, higher numbers than the forecast -11.2B are beneficial for the British Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: PRESSURE MOUNTS AND THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG MOVEMENT INCREASES


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair continued its slow movement that still lacks a clear direction. Probably the fact that no major indicators were released had an important part to play in all this.

[Image: IbhaDrk.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.1385 was broken yesterday but the move lacked determination and soon the pair climbed above the mentioned level. The picture remains blurry until some sort of fundamental event takes place or a major economic indicator is released and for the time being, we can note that the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, a fact that favours bearish movement, but the Stochastic has spent a lot of time in oversold, a fact that favours bullish movement. That being said, our bias is neutral until a clear breakout occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

We have another lacklustre day ahead, with the only notable event being the release of the U.S. Federal Budget Balance. It shows the difference between income and spending for the federal government but usually it doesn’t have a strong impact; however, higher numbers than the forecast 116.2B can be beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound completed a timid retracement to the upside but the bulls didn’t threaten resistance and overall we had a slow day.

[Image: JIqaZCG.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s movement was mainly bullish but we don’t expect the current move to extend past the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.4475. Instead we consider this a good place for price to bounce lower, making a run for 1.4350 support. However, a break of the mentioned resistance zone would make the short term bias bullish, anticipating a move into 1.4565.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers are released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the total value of output generated by the manufacturing sector. The anticipated change is 0.4% (previous -1.1%) and higher numbers bring Pound strength.
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FOREX NEWS: POUND BUCKLES UP FOR STRONG MOVEMENT AHEAD OF BOE CLUSTER OF EVENTS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro climbed higher yesterday without an obvious catalyst behind the move. Most of the session was bullish, with price approaching 1.1450.

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Technical Outlook

The current move is likely to touch 1.1450 resistance but is not backed by a fundamental event or economic indicator so we don’t expect it to extend past the said resistance. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was clearly broken so the short term outlook is bullish but if one of the oscillators (or both) reaches overbought, we expect the pair to turn lower and make another run for 1.1385.

Fundamental Outlook

We have yet another slow day ahead from a fundamental perspective. There’s nothing important on the Euro calendar and on the US Dollar side we have the Unemployment Claims, an indicator which shows how many persons asked for unemployment related benefits during the previous month. Usually this indicator doesn’t have a huge impact but a larger number than the anticipated 277K can trigger US Dollar weakness; the time of the release is 12:30 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar continued its slow movement, with a slight descent due to worse than expected Manufacturing Production numbers; however, the move lower was soon reversed.

[Image: rugWL59.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.4475 resistance so our bias remains bearish, anticipating a move into 1.4350. A break above the 2 types of resistance mentioned earlier will tilt the balance in favour of the bulls and will make 1.4565 the first target but keep in mind that today the fundamental aspect will play an important role.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s an important day for the Pound as the Bank of England has prepared a cluster of events: at 11:00 am GMT the Inflation Report is released, containing the Bank’s projections for economy and inflation for the next 2 years. At the same time the interest rate is announced (no change expected from the current 0.50%), the rate votes (how each MPC member has voted on the rate change) and a Monetary Policy Summary (containing the reasons that triggered the rate decision). Later at 11:45 am GMT, BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the Inflation Report. All these events are likely to trigger strong volatility on all Pound related pairs so we recommend caution.
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FOREX NEWS: CLOSING A SLOW WEEK WITH A BANG: GERMAN GDP, U.S. RETAIL SALES


EUR/USD


Forex News: The bears made a run for 1.1385 support yesterday but failed to break it and the pair instead bounced higher, currently testing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

[Image: 6ZQEcRD.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bounce seen at 1.1385 can extend into 1.1450 if price manages to pass the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the four hour Stochastic is already showing a bearish cross. This suggests that a failed attempt to move above the 50 EMA will probably trigger a move into 1.1335. However the entire week has been very slow and today we finally have some action on the fundamental scene so that will play an important role for price direction.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 6:00 am GMT the German Preliminary Gross Domestic is released and expected to show a 0.6% change, better than the previous 0.3%; such an increase is likely to bring Euro strength. The more important event is the release of the U.S. Retail Sales, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT, with an anticipated change of 0.3%, same as last month. Since sales made at retail outlets represent a major part of the entire consumer spending, higher numbers are likely to generate US Dollar strength, thus bearish movement on the pair.

The last important release is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT in the form of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, a survey that tries to gauge the opinions of consumers regarding the current economic situation. The forecast is 89.9 and higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound initially weakened at the time of the BOE releases but it strengthened soon after, during Mark Carney’s speech. The interest rate remained unchanged, as expected and all members voted in unanimity. 

[Image: GlVZTmX.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair broke the resistance zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the level at 1.4475, putting the bulls in control of short term movement. This means that we will likely see a move into 1.4565 but a quick move below 1.4475 and the 50 EMA would invalidate such a scenario and would make 1.4350 the target once again.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so the main market movers will come from the United States and also from the technical side.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY AFFECTED AS EUROPE CELEBRATES WHIT MONDAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday we saw strong bearish movement, mostly generated by a surprisingly better value of the U.S. Retail Sales, compared to what analysts’ had anticipated. The forecast was -0.3%, the actual number came out 1.3% and the US Dollar answered almost immediately.

[Image: iwGEcuk.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The latest move broke 1.1335 but also brought the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index in oversold territory. This suggests that we are likely to see a move up in the form of a retracement that will possibly confirm 1.1335 as resistance. If this occurs, then we are likely to see a touch of 1.1210 during the days to come but today we may be in for a slow day considering the lack of economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

Suisse, French and German banks are closed today in observance of Whit Monday and as a result, no major indicators will be released. Also, volatility is likely to be affected so we expect a slow day; contributing to this is the fact that the United States don’t release any important indicators either.


GBP/USD

Greenback strength generated by the better than expected U.S. Retail Sales was clearly seen against the Pound and the pair dropped Friday to touch support, setting the stage for a bearish break.

[Image: 9VguUuo.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bears face an important test as the pair entered the support zone created between 1.4350 and 1.4320. If this zone can be broken today, we expect price to head towards 1.4230 during the days to come but if the sellers run out of steam here, the pair will likely bounce back up into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The lacklustre fundamental scene may bring a slow and choppy trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the rest of Europe and the United States, the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases so the technical aspect will be the main driver of price today.
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