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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: THE BULLS ARE STILL IN THE GAME, SHOWING UNDERLYING STRENGTH


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday was a slow day for the euro-dollar but the bulls dictated the pace and direction of the action. Resistance is still intact and as long as this is the case, we still favour a move south.

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Technical Outlook

As long as price stays below 1.1335, we anticipate the pair to move lower, towards 1.1250. The Stochastic is approaching overbought, favouring a bounce at resistance and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is still not broken so it is currently acting as resistance as well. All this will make it tough for the bulls to move the pair higher but a break of the mentioned resistance zone will open the door for 1.1450 once more.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is today’s main reason for Euro volatility. The survey is derived from the opinions of 275 German analysts and professional investors regarding a 6 month economic outlook. The release is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and the expected value is 8.2, almost double than the previous 4.3; higher values usually strengthen the Euro.

Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Building Permits are released, offering insights into the American Construction sector; the anticipated value is 1.20M and higher values benefit the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound had a great day against the greenback and managed to climb above 1.4230. This scores an important victory for the bulls and makes the short term bias bullish.

[Image: Yeu8sCq.jpg]

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.4230, we favour the upside but a bearish trend line sits in front of rising prices. If this barrier can be surpassed, we anticipate the bulls to take the pair into 1.4350 but overall the pair is in a ranging phase so the control does not clearly belong to either side; this also means that an extreme reading (overbought) of any of the 2 oscillators would increase the possibility of a move south.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify today at 2:35 pm GMT before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee. A hawkish stance will likely bring Pound strength while the opposite is true for a dovish approach. Either way, volatility is expected and caution is recommended.
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FOREX NEWS: A BULLISH RESURGENCE OR THE LAST IMPULSE BEFORE A HUGE DROP?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey released yesterday showed a better than expected reading while the U.S. Building Permits didn’t meet analysts’ forecast and all this played a role in the climb above resistance seen yesterday.

[Image: HMQQBiw.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current climb above resistance is approaching an overbought condition as shown by the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index. This suggests that a move lower is in order, even if afterwards the pair will resume upside movement. The day’s most important level remains 1.1335, which may trigger a bounce higher if price returns to re-test it; the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also a barrier in front of falling prices and as long as the pair sits above it, our bias is slightly bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 10:00 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at the ECB Generation Euro Competition. We don’t expect strong movement but it’s an event that you should be aware of, because volatility may increase during his speech. On the US Dollar side we have the U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 5.29M (previous 5.08M); the indicator is not a major market mover but usually, higher values strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued its climb and is now trading well above the bearish trend line mentioned yesterday. Horizontal resistance was also broken and it looks like we are seeing a resurgence of the bulls who seem determined to regain control.

[Image: TlVqQvd.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index have moved above their respective overbought levels, warning about a potential retracement lower. If this retracement occurs, the first potential support will be offered by the level at 1.4350 and to the upside, the first notable resistance is located at 1.4460, followed by the zone around 1.4500.

Fundamental Outlook

UK labour market data comes out at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Claimant Count Change, an indicator that shows changes in the number of people who asked for unemployment related help during the previous month. The expected number is -11.9K and lower numbers are usually beneficial for the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: DRAGHI TAKES THE STAGE FOR THE INTEREST RATE PRESS CONFERENCE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the bullish advances stopped and instead the bears managed to push the pair lower, into support; the U.S. Existing Home Sales showed an optimistic value and this added strength to the greenback.

[Image: ZHidSPp.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is re-testing the level at 1.1335, which may turn into support and if this occurs, we are likely to see moves higher, towards 1.1450. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also in close vicinity, creating a confluence zone together with the mentioned support level. If this strong zone is broken, it will show that the US Dollar is gaining momentum and we expect a move towards 1.1200 zone; the position of the two oscillators favours a move south but today the technical aspect will be overshadowed by the ECB events.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Central Bank announces at 11:45 am GMT the decision regarding the interest rate and 45 minutes later, at 12:30 pm GMT, Mario Draghi, the President of the ECB, will hold a press conference discussing the interest rate decision. This is usually the most volatile time of the day and also a reason for sometimes erratic movement. Since the rate is not expected to change, the Euro direction will be mostly dependant on the attitude of the ECB President and the way he answers journalists’ questions.


GBP/USD

The British Claimant Count Change released yesterday showed a disappointing value of 6.7K (forecast -11.9K) but the release weakened the Pound only for a short while and created a bounce higher at support.

[Image: l7xMb4o.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The almost perfect bounce at 1.4350 turned the level into support and also showed that the pair is headed higher. This potential bullish move can be blocked by the overbought condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index but also by the minor resistance at 1.4420. If these barriers can be overcome, price is likely to touch 1.4450 where we expect a deeper retracement to the downside.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech today at 2:00 pm GMT at the United Nations, in New York. We expect the Pound to react but unless the Governor makes strong statements, we don’t anticipate huge movement.
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS PUSH THE PACE AS THE US DOLLAR BOUNCES BACK


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro acted erratically yesterday during Mario Draghi’s press conference, strengthening while he was speaking and suffering a sharp selloff afterwards. Currently the pair is trading again below 1.1335.

[Image: akQoMgB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The large spike created by yesterday’s price action shows rejection and also that once again the balance of power favours the bears. Today we expect the pair to make its way towards 1.1210, with the first barrier being 1.1250. If the direction is going to change again, 1.1335 is the first upside barrier and if that is surpassed, we don’t expect 1.1400 to be broken. The oscillators don’t show an extreme reading, thus they don’t offer clear clues about future movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Flash Manufacturing PMI is released today at 7:30 am GMT. The indicator shows the opinions of purchasing managers from the German Manufacturing sector about business and economic conditions in said sector and usually higher numbers have a positive impact on the Euro but often the extent is limited. The forecast is 51.0, previous 50.7. Also today the Eurogroup and ECOFIN Meetings start, attended by finance ministers and key personalities from the EU member states.


GBP/USD

Mark Carney’s speech didn’t create a huge buzz but the US Dollar strengthened and drove the pair below 1.4350 yesterday, after a short-lived climb above resistance. Overall price action was choppy and difficult to trade.

[Image: JdJKGDy.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair has shown clear rejection around 1.4420 resistance and now 1.4350 is breached to the downside. Also, the oscillators show good bearish momentum and we expect all this to generate a stronger move south, probably very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A quick move above 1.4350 would indicate a period of stagnation and most likely sideways movement, trapped between 1.4420 and 1.4350.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic announcements but the Eurogroup and ECOFIN Meetings will probably create volatility, depending on the matters discussed.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: GERMAN BUSINESS CLIMATE, U.S. HOME SALES TO DECIDE TODAY’S PRICE DIRECTION


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the bearish movement continued as the greenback strengthened against the Euro and managed to drive the pair below 1.1250. This marks an important victory for the bears and makes us anticipate a short term downtrend.

[Image: pJlznqc.jpg]

Technical Outlook

By breaking 1.1250 to the downside, price now created a lower low; also we have a lower high (price bounced at 1.1400 while previously it had bounced at 1.1450) and this is a characteristic of a downtrend. We expect price to move below 1.1210, en route to 1.1150 support but we note the oversold position of the Stochastic (also the Relative Strength Index is just touching its oversold level) and this means that today we may see bullish pullbacks. If this is the case, we expect bearish movement to resume at 1.1250 or at the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey comes out, expected to show a value of 107.1 (previous 106.7). Its importance comes from its large sample of about 7,000 businesses that are asked to give their assessment on current economic conditions as well as a 6 month outlook. Higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the extent is sometimes limited.

Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. New Home Sales numbers come out, offering insights into the health of the U.S. house market. The forecast is 521K (annualized number) and a higher value is beneficial for the US Dollar but the indicator is known to have medium impact on the greenback.


GBP/USD

Friday the Pound spiked higher but the bulls couldn’t sustain the move and the pair is trading again below minor resistance. Overall both sides lack determination and a clear trend is not in place.

[Image: KMr5tXb.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.4420, although breached several times, is still rejecting price lower, creating long candle wicks. This is a sign of future moves lower but, as mentioned before, neither side is in control. The oscillators don’t show an extreme condition, thus don’t do much for predicting the future move. From a short term perspective, the pair is making higher highs and higher lows (uptrend) so we expect a touch of 1.4460 if the bulls can take price back above 1.4420.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound’s direction will me mostly affected by the technical aspect because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic news releases for today.
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FOREX NEWS: BULLS THREATEN RESISTANCE. TIME FOR A RESURGENCE OF THE UPTREND?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair slowly climbed above 1.1250 yesterday, completing a bullish retracement in response to the latest drop. The German IFO Business Climate survey showed a lower number than analysts had predicted but the difference wasn’t substantial, thus the pair did not have a strong reaction.

[Image: 4Cn1mFQ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bullish pullback seen yesterday was generated in part by the oversold condition of the oscillators but once this condition is cleared, we expect the pair to continue lower, breaking 1.1210. Note that the Stochastic is crossing upwards, coming out of oversold and this favours an extended move to the upside; if this is the case, we don’t expect the pair to move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but if it does so, it could mean that the bulls are preparing to take back control.

Fundamental Outlook

The first key economic indicator of the day is the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a change of 1.9% compared to last month’s -3.0%. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years and usually a higher value brings along US Dollar strength.

Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT a U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released; it acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending and under normal circumstances, higher values than the forecast 95.8, are beneficial to the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Pound bulls scored another victory yesterday, managing to break immediate resistance and threatening 1.4510. Later in the day however, some of the gains were erased.

[Image: Cb4103v.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.4510 was tested yesterday but so far it’s proving too tough to break and on top of that, both oscillators are touching their respective overbought levels, making us anticipate bearish price action today. The first two barriers that need to be broken are 1.4460 and 1.4420 but these are also two levels where price can bounce higher, for another attempt to break 1.4500 zone. If price does not bounce higher here, we expect to see a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major events on the fundamental schedule for the Pound today so we expect the technical aspect to be the main market mover. Of course, the two U.S. indicators will also have a direct impact on the pair.
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FOREX NEWS: HEADS UP FOR THE FED RATE. VOLATILITY ALMOST GUARANTEED


EUR/USD


Forex News: Following a disappointing value shown by the U.S. Durable Goods Orders (actual 0.8%, forecast 1.9%), the US Dollar weakened and thus the pair climbed into resistance. The Consumer Confidence survey also showed a worse than expected value, further contributing to the greenback’s losses.

[Image: 1bAYzmZ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The two oscillators are showing good upward momentum, without being overbought and the pair has moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the bias right now is bullish. However, 1.1335 can act as a strong resistance and if price has difficulties breaking it, we expect to see a bounce lower, probably into 1.1250 territory again. Keep in mind that today the US Dollar will be heavily affected by the Fed rate decision so the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:00 pm GMT the Fed will announce their interest rate decision (no change expected; currently <0.50%), alongside a FOMC Statement that will contain insights into the reasons that generated the rate verdict and possibly, hints about future changes. Almost every time the rate is announced, the US Dollar reacts strongly, even if no change is posted, so we expect it to do the same this time and also we recommend caution at the time of release.


GBP/USD

The worse than expected U.S. economic data showed its effects against the Pound as well and the pair had a strong bullish day yesterday, climbing decisively above resistance.

[Image: lOywf4w.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the bulls scored another important victory yesterday by breaking above 1.4565, we expect the pair to start to move lower. There is a strong resistance zone between 1.4650 and 1.4670 and we don’t believe the buyers still have enough gas in the tank to break it. Also, both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are clearly overbought now and this calls for a retracement that may find support around 1.4565. Of course, this scenario can be foiled by the key economic data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released and this can have a strong impact on the Pound, partly because the GDP is an economy’s main gauge of performance and partly because the Preliminary version is considered the most important out of the three (Preliminary, Second Estimate and Final). The expected change is 0.4% (previous 0.6%) and higher values are beneficial for the currency. Keep an eye on the Fed events as these will have a direct impact on the pair.
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FOREX NEWS: CHANCES FOR A JUNE RATE HIKE BECOME SLIMMER. THE US DOLLAR SUFFERS THE CONSEQUENCES


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Fed did not modify rates yesterday, as expected but the statement was mostly dovish and the US Dollar behaved erratically at the time of release. Apparently a June rate hike is off the table and this was one of the main reasons for the spike seen at the time of release.

[Image: 2BJrxG8.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action was generated by the Fed dovish statement but no serious technical advances were made. The pair is in indecision mode, trapped between 1.1335 resistance and 1.1250 support; currently price is above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the line is flat and doesn’t do much to predict future movement. That being said, the next move is uncertain and our bias is neutral until the market decides how to interpret Fed’s position. If 1.1335 is broken, we expect a move into 1.1400 and if the pair moves below the 50 EMA, we anticipate a touch of 1.1250.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:00 pm GMT we get a first look into German inflation with the Preliminary version of their Consumer Price Index. This is considered the main gauge of inflation and because the German economy is an important pillar of the entire Eurozone, the effect on the single currency is likely to be strong. The anticipated change is -0.2% (previous 0.8%) and usually a higher number brings Euro strength.

On the US Dollar side we have the Advance version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product which is the overall gauge of economic performance. The forecast is 0.7% (previous 1.4%) and the time of release is 12:30 pm GMT; higher numbers are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The British GDP matched analysts’ forecast of 0.4%, so the release did not generate strong volatility. On the other hand, the Fed event generated volatility but a clear direction did not emerge and instead a huge spike was created.

[Image: RXo8Lsa.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The long lower wick shows rejection and is a sign that the pair may move to the upside. However, the spike was generated by the Fed release, not by technical factors and we cannot be certain about how the market will react once the dust settles. Currently the oscillators are coming out of overbought and this favours a move lower but it would be safer to wait for a clear breakout before trading. 

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements for today so we expect the pair to be driven by the technical aspect and by the U.S. GDP.
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FOREX NEWS: BULLS RUN OUT OF STEAM, US DOLLAR MAKES A MOVE FOR SUPPORT


EUR/USD


Forex News: German inflation data released yesterday didn’t surprise in any way and the U.S. GDP came out lower than analysts’ had forecast so the pair had a bullish day but the advances were timid.

[Image: ROq5vrh.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The climb seems to be out of steam and despite disappointing U.S. data, the Euro still cannot take the pair significantly higher. This is a sign that a sharp selloff is in the making, and potentially a bearish break of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The upside level to watch remains 1.1400 which will act as resistance if the bulls extend their gains, but a break of this level is less probable.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 6:00 am GMT the German Retail sales come out, expected to show a change of 0.3% compared to the previous -0.4%. This is a high impact event that can bring Euro strength if better than expected numbers are posted. Later in the day, at 9:00 am GMT we get more information about inflation in Europe as the Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate comes out. The forecast is -0.1% while the previous was 0.0%. A higher inflation is considered beneficial for the Euro.


GBP/USD

The pound-dollar pair had a very choppy trading session yesterday, without major advances to either side. The U.S. economic data weakened the greenback but even so, the Pound bulls weren’t able to threaten resistance.

[Image: FkKkxav.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price lacks clear direction as the bulls are starting to lose their momentum but the sellers are not keen to step in and take control yet. That being said, we expect a drop below 1.4510, mainly because the pair has been overbought for a long time and a proper retracement did not occur. If this scenario doesn’t take place, the pair will probably stay between 1.4650 and 1.4565.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable British event of the day is the release of the Net Lending to Individuals, which is an indicator that tracks the total value of loans issued to consumers. A higher value shows that people are eager to spend more and banks are confident giving them the money. All this likely leads to increased economic activity and eventually a stronger Pound. The forecast is 5.0B, a small increase from last month’s 4.9B.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: OVERBOUGHT LEVELS FAVOUR BEARISH RETRACEMENTS


EUR/USD


Forex News: German Retail Sales and Eurozone CPI showed disappointing numbers Friday but nonetheless, the pair climbed to test resistance. This was mostly due to US Dollar weakness across the board, not Euro strength.

[Image: vHT11vp.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair has reached once again the strong resistance zone around 1.1450 after going through 1.1400 like a hot knife through butter. Momentum belongs to the bulls but the current move is overextended, as shown by the overbought position of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index on a four-hour chart. This makes us believe that 1.1450 resistance will hold and will push price lower once again.

Fundamental Outlook

ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech today at 2:00 pm GMT, titled “The future of financial markets: A changing view of Asia”. The impact may be strong given the fact that the topic is related to the financial markets but it may also go mostly unnoticed. However, caution is advised, as always when heads of central banks speak publicly.

On the US Dollar side we have the Manufacturing PMI scheduled for release also at 2:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector, regarding their opinion about economic and business conditions and usually higher than anticipated numbers trigger US Dollar strength. The forecast for today is 51.6 while the previous value was 51.8.


GBP/USD

Friday we saw another attempt to break 1.4650 resistance but this resulted in a small bounce lower, followed by choppy movement. The pair is stalling and lacks clear direction.

[Image: vA7k6ST.jpg]

Technical Outlook

From a daily perspective the pair is overbought and the bulls are dealing with strong resistance at 1.4650. Also, the Relative Strength Index has started to descend, making lower highs while price is making higher highs – this means that bearish divergence is present and is a strong indication that price might start to descend in the near future. On top of this, the Stochastic is overbought and favors a move lower, thus we expect a bearish session, with 1.4565 as target.

Fundamental Outlook

British banks are closed today in observance of May Day and the Pound will not be directly affected by economic indicators.
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