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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: INDECISION STILL RULES THE SCENE AHEAD OF PURCHASING MANAGERS’ INDEX RELEASES


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday movement was slow and without clear direction; a lot of this was due to a monotonous fundamental environment and the lack of major news releases.

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Technical Outlook

The pair is still hovering near 1.1375 and neither bulls nor bears are in clear control. We still anticipate a drop below 1.1375 and closer to 1.1320, mostly because both oscillators are moving out of overbought. However, given the current lack of direction, a move up is not out of the question; if this happens, the first target is the key resistance at 1.1450.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Dollar will be affected today by the release of the Non-Manufacturing PMI, which is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers that asks respondents to rate the current level of economic conditions, excluding the manufacturing sector. It acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher numbers than the forecast 54.1 are usually beneficial for the US Dollar. The scheduled time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

The British Construction PMI showed a value that matched analysts’ expectations and the release didn’t have a strong impact. Nonetheless, the pair moved higher during yesterday’s trading session.

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Technical Outlook

The bullish move seen yesterday showed that the break of 1.4230 was false and that we may see a touch of 1.4350 if the 50 period Exponential Moving Average can be broken. Signs of rejection are already seen (long upper wick) but the oscillators are starting to move upwards, favouring the bulls, so the picture is still blurry and on top of that, the pair is still confined in a daily triangle pattern so movement will be mixed until the pattern is broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI comes out at 8:30 am GMT, showing the opinion of purchasing managers about the health of the Services sector. This indicator is not known to be a strong market mover but usually, higher numbers than the forecast 53.9 are beneficial to the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT THREATENED, FOMC MEETING MINUTES IN THE SPOTLIGHT


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session lacked substantial movement but was dominated by the bears. The US Non-Manufacturing PMI showed a better than expected value, strengthening the greenback and contributing to the bearish movement.

[Image: iTTfsgD.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is now headed towards the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.1320. This is a good place for the bulls to step back in and retake control over the pair, considering that overall we are in a medium term uptrend. A break of the mentioned support zone would show that the uptrend is exhausted and that the sellers are ready to take price closer to 1.1210 in the near future.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event today is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, a document which contains details of the latest FOMC meeting and insights into the reasons that determined the Fed to maintain the rate unchanged. The event is scheduled at 6:00 pm GMT and usually creates strong movement if it contains hints about the pace of future rate hikes.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued on a downward path and the pair moved below support on the back of US Dollar strength generated in part by the positive U.S. economic data.

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Technical Outlook

The pair is now sitting below 1.4230 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; this makes the short term bias bearish and increases the chances of a continued move south, closer to 1.4050. However, we are still in a ranging period and the pair is not clearly out of the daily triangle pattern mentioned yesterday. This means that an oversold condition of the Stochastic or RSI has increased chances to trigger a move higher; this potential climb is likely to find resistance at 1.4230.

Fundamental Outlook

The fundamental scene for the Pound is calm as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic news releases today, thus direction will be influenced by the technical aspect and by the FOMC Minutes.
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FOREX NEWS: FED UNDECIDED ABOUT NEXT RATE HIKE – US DOLLAR SHOWS WEAKNESS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes the pair touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and bounced higher once it did. The Minutes showed mixed opinions among FOMC members about an April rate hike and this was perceived as bearish for the US Dollar, allowing the pair to climb.

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Technical Outlook

The pair shows rejection at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and at 1.1320 support; on top of that, the current trend is up so we are likely to see a touch of 1.1450 key resistance. If this handle cannot be broken, price is likely to re-test the moving average in the near future and if the bears manage to break it, we will probably witness the end of the uptrend and the beginning of a new downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:30 am GMT the ECB will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, a detailed document of their latest rate meeting, containing insights into the reasons that influenced their latest rate decision. Similar to the FOMC Meeting Minutes, this document can create volatility at the time of release so caution is recommended.

Later in the day, at 9:30 pm GMT Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will deliver a public speech at the International House in New York. This is another reason for increased volatility and the direction will depend on Yellen’s attitude and matters discussed.


GBP/USD

The pair breached the key level at 1.4050 yesterday but soon returned above it, showing that this support is still an important hurdle for the bears.

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Technical Outlook

The current bounce is likely to bring the pair into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but here we expect a drop and another try to break 1.4050 support. Both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are bouncing off of their respective oversold levels and this fact increases the chances to see bullish price action today.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases today so price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STAGES A COMEBACK, THREATENS SUPPORT AGAIN


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the anticipated touch of resistance occurred but the bulls ran out of steam and the pair fell to touch the 50 period Exponential Moving average on a four hour chart.

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Technical Outlook

We saw an almost perfect bounce lower at 1.1450 resistance but now the pair is also showing rejection off of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the picture remains unclear until price moves outside one of these technical levels. A bearish break of the 50 period EMA would need to extend below the support at 1.1320 and if this happens, we expect 1.1210 to become the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

Today price direction will be driven by the technical aspect as both Europe and the United States didn’t schedule major news announcements.


GBP/USD

Price touched key support once again yesterday and now the pair is in indecision mode, lacking clear direction.

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Technical Outlook

The key support at 1.4050 is proving tough to break and for the second time the pair is showing rejection in this area. The latest momentum is bearish but overall the pair is still in a ranging period, without a clear trend, so it’s very possible to see a move north. If the support at 1.1450 is broken, the immediate destination will become the previous low located at 1.4000.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production is scheduled for release today at 8:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of -0.2% compared to the previous 0.7%. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of output generated by the manufacturing sector and usually has a medium impact on the Pound, with higher numbers being beneficial. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT, NIESR will release their Estimate version of the British Gross Domestic Product. Although this is just an estimate, higher numbers than the previous 0.3% are usually good for the currency.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: HEADS UP: EXPEDITED PROCEDURES CLOSED MEETING


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the pair showed a slight bullish bias, bouncing higher at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but overall movement was slow, similar to the rest of last week.

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Technical Outlook

Several times in the last period, price has bounced at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the bulls failed to capitalize and take price above the key resistance at 1.1450. This is an indication that the uptrend is starting to crumble, but on the other hand the bears cannot make serious advances either so we are dealing with a channel breakout scenario. The upper boundary is 1.1450 and the lower boundary is 1.1335; a break of either one will probably determine the next short-to-medium term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The Fed is due to hold an “expedited procedures” Meeting today. This meeting is closed to the press but afterwards an official statement will be released. The exact time is not yet known but the main topic of discussion is the interest rate so we expect very strong impact that will probably extend throughout the week. Extreme caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing Production numbers released Friday showed a disappointing value but the Pound’s answer was mixed, weakening at first and then making up for the losses.

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Technical Outlook

The support at 1.4050 is still the most important level for short term price action. Last week the pair bounced off of it again and this up move is likely to continue until the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is reached. On the other hand, if a break of 1.4050 happens today, we will probably see a move into the previous low at 1.4005. Given the unexpected Fed Meeting, we expect strong and possibly irregular moves on all US Dollar pairs.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases but the Fed Meeting will directly influence the pair, thus caution is advised.
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FOREX NEWS: EURO STILL STUCK IN A RANGE, POUND PREPARES FOR INFLATION DATA


EUR/USD


Forex News: For most of yesterday the euro-dollar remained confined inside the range represented by 1.1450 resistance and 1.1335 support. Overall the session was slower than expected.

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Technical Outlook

The buyers are putting some pressure on the pair and threaten 1.1450 but so far this key resistance remains intact. At the time of writing the Fed closed meeting did not take place yet and an exact time is not yet known. As stated before, the impact of this meeting can be strong, depending on the matters discussed. In the meantime, we are still dealing with a breakout scenario and our bias is neutral, waiting for a move above 1.1450 or below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.1335.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a slow day for both the Euro and the US Dollar from a fundamental standpoint and price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to climb yesterday, moving above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above the 1.4230 barrier.

[Image: bTCN32G.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The oscillators are coming closer to overbought and this favors a move down. As we said previously, the pair is going through a ranging period and in this kind of period, any extreme position of the oscillators (overbought or oversold) can more easily generate a counter move. We expect a move lower, that will possibly turn 1.4230 into support before heading higher; if the mentioned level is broken to the downside, the first target becomes the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Consumer Price Index is announced, and anticipated to show a change of 0.3%, same as previous. This is the main gauge of inflation, which is currently considered too low, so higher values than forecast will likely generate Pound strength.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. RETAIL SALES – THE DAY’S MAIN MARKET MOVER


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair tried once again to break the key resistance at 1.1450 but failed once more and a sharp drop followed, taking the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

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Technical Outlook

It appears like the pair is finally preparing for a real breakout and the bounce at 1.1450 showed that the bulls are clearly out of steam. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was the first hurdle in front of falling prices and it was broken during yesterday’s fall; all this make our bias bearish, anticipating a move below 1.1335. Once this level is broken, it is likely to see a re-test from below, which will confirm the level as new resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Dollar remains in the spotlight today for the release of the U.S. Retail Sales numbers scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a 0.1% increase compared to the previous -0.1%. Sales made at retail levels represent a key element of the economy and usually higher numbers strengthen the currency so we expect to see more downside movement if the actual number is higher than anticipated.


GBP/USD

British inflation improved as shown by yesterday’s CPI release that posted a 0.5% change (forecast 0.3%). This initially strengthened the Pound but soon after, US Dollar bulls stepped in and the pair bounced lower at resistance.

[Image: YCaTZaD.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced almost perfectly at 1.4350 resistance and moved below 1.4230 but now the bears have an important barrier ahead: the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If this hurdle can be overcome, the next likely destination is 1.4050 although we don’t expect that to happen during the course of a single day. The overbought condition of both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index played an important role in yesterday’s drop and now the greenback is gaining momentum, so we expect further downside to follow.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound won’t be affected by major news announcements so the main mover for the pair will be the release of the U.S. Retail Sales and of course, the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: A NEW US DOLLAR TREND? AMERICAN INFLATION DATA COULD BE THE DECIDING FACTOR


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair continued to move to the downside despite the fact that U.S. Retail Sales posted a disappointing change of -0.3%. This goes to show that the US Dollar is strengthening and the Euro bulls are slowly giving up their control.

[Image: WQ8vqIw.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price has moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the previous support at 1.1335. This is a clear indication that further downside is probable but we have to note that the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are approaching oversold. This means that the chances of bullish retracements have increased and that today we may see a re-test from below of 1.1335. If this level can turn into resistance, we expect the pair to head towards 1.1200 area.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:30 pm GMT important inflation data is released by the United States: the Consumer Price Index. The expected change is 0.2%, better than the previous -0.2% and any values above or even equal to the forecast usually strengthen the US Dollar, generating movement south.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the bearish advances slowed down, probably influenced by the worse than expected U.S. Retail Sales. At the time of writing the pair is still struggling to break the moving average.

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Technical Outlook

Although the oscillators still show good momentum, the pair is having difficulties breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and price is sitting just below 1.4230. Once and if these barriers are broken, we expect the bears to take price closer to 1.4050 which is the next key level. A bounce higher is less likely but not out of the question because the pair is still in a ranging state judging from a medium term perspective.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England announces the interest rate decision today at 11:00 am GMT. No change is expected (currently 0.50%) but a breakdown of the MPC members’ votes is also revealed, showing the stance of each member. Previously all 9 members voted to keep rates unchanged but a sudden change of stance could trigger strong moves on Pound pairs so we recommend caution at the time of release. Keep in mind that the U.S. CPI will have a direct impact on the pair as well.
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS PUSH LOWER, SUPPORT STILL INTACT


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair continued its descent although the U.S. CPI showed a value below analysts’ expectations; however, it was still better than the previous number and this was viewed as bullish for the US Dollar.

[Image: 6K4QohM.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is getting closer to the support around 1.1210 and now we see some bullish impulses, probably generated by the oversold condition of the two oscillators. For now the pair did not make a significant lower high or lower low so we cannot consider the latest move to be a clear downtrend and thus, expect a move into 1.1335 or the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If one of the two will turn into resistance, the chances of further downside movement will increase, making 1.1210 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release a Consumer Sentiment survey derived from the opinions of about 500 consumers. The expected figure is 91.9 (previous 91.0) and higher values usually strengthen the greenback but the impact is often mild if the actual number matches analysts’ expectations. Also today the G2 (Group of 20) Meetings take place, attended by key personalities from the member states. The event might influence volatility, so we recommend caution.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept rates unchanged and all MPC members agreed on this. As a result, the release did not create significant moves for the Pound; however, the pair broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average yesterday.

[Image: Sb5pNV0.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The important support represented by the 50 period EMA was broken and although the bears are taking a breather now, we expect the downside to continue until the key support at 1.4050 is reached. We must note that the Stochastic is now oversold but the Relative Strength Index has not reached an extreme yet so the picture offered by the oscillators is pretty blurry at the time. In any case, keep in mind that the Stochastic favours a move up; if this is the case, we expect price to be rejected lower by 1.4230 or by the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be mainly affected by the technical aspect because no major British indicators are released. The G20 Meetings and the U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey will have a direct impact on the pair.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: SLOW MONDAY; RESISTANCE HINDERS UPSIDE ACTION


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday we had a slow day, with some bullish movement, generated in part by a disappointing value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, which weakened the US Dollar.

[Image: yxGjMk0.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We expect the pair to move higher until it touches the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and probably the level at 1.1335. This level is not yet confirmed resistance but it will become one if price bounces off of it. The oscillators moved out of oversold, thus increasing the chances of a bullish move into the mentioned zone but a bounce here would increase the probability of a break of 1.1250 en route to 1.1210.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:30 pm GMT, William Dudley, the President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank will deliver opening remarks at a Conference in New York. He is a FOMC voting member, so his attitude is likely to influence the US Dollar but we don’t expect huge movement unless he surprises the markets and audiences with strong statements.


GBP/USD

A weaker US Dollar allowed the Pound bulls to take price higher Friday and to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, horizontal resistance is still intact so the next move is still undecided.

[Image: AtLuAHZ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bulls are struggling to break 1.4230 resistance but signs of rejection are already present. If the pair moves below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, this will confirm the bounce at 1.4230 and will probably generate a move south. On the other hand, if price stays above the 50 EMA, we expect a break of immediate resistance and that will probably bring in more buyers who will take the pair higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be influenced only by the technical aspect today as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic indicator releases.
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