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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: GERMAN ECONOMIC SURVEYS, BRITISH INFLATION DATA TO DECIDE THE DAY’S BIAS


EUR/USD



Forex News: Bearish pressure hindered further advances to the upside yesterday and the pair is now in the middle of a retracement which is likely to hit support.

[Image: mFR7nW9.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Once the resistance zone near 1.1320 was touched, both oscillators were overbought and this helped generate the current retracement to the downside. We expect the downwards pressure to continue until 1.1210 is touched and possibly the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but once (or if) price gets there, we expect the bulls to step in and take price higher, especially if this will coincide with an oversold position of at least one oscillator.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the day is the release of the German IFO Business Climate, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to show a value of 106.1. This is a survey of about 7,000 businesses that are asked to rate their economic expectations for the next 6 months.

One hour later, at 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment comes out, showing the opinions of about 275 German investors and analysts about the economic environment. The forecast is 6.3, a hefty increase from the previous 1.0. Both surveys act as leading indicators of economic health and can strengthen the Euro if they post better than expected figures.


GBP/USD

After the strong and fast climb seen last week, the pair was in need of a retracement to the downside and yesterday was the day this pullback occurred, generating a bearish trading session.

[Image: u0nFeNi.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We expect price to continue it’s descent until the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is touched. Both oscillators are coming out of overbought, favouring an extended move south but keep in mind the current trend is bullish so a touch of either 1.4350 support or the moving average, might generate another push to the upside.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Consumer Price Index comes out at 9:30 am GMT and is expected to show an increase of 0.4% compared to the previous 0.3%. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and strongly influences the currency, with higher values being considered beneficial for the Pound, so we can expect to see bullish action if the actual number exceeds analysts’ forecast.
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FOREX NEWS: BRUSSELS EXPLOSIONS GENERATE MARKET INSTABILITY


EUR/USD



Forex News: The financial market was heavily influenced yesterday by two explosions that took place in Brussels and resulted in human casualties. The pair moved lower and reached support, in what was bearish session.

[Image: KpXz5YH.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price reached the key level at 1.1210 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; this increases the chances of bullish movement but on the other hand, a break of this zone would suggest that further downside will follow. The Stochastic has reached oversold and the pair is in a medium term uptrend so this increases the probability of a move up; however, the Relative Strength Index is nowhere near its oversold level so the picture is rather blurry and caution is recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

The turmoil in Brussels is likely to affect today’s price movement and other than that the US Dollar will be influenced by the New Home Sales numbers scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The indicator shows the annualized number of new houses sold during the previous month and can have a positive impact on the greenback if higher figures are posted; the forecast is 512K while the previous was 494K.


GBP/USD

The British CPI showed a disappointing value of 0.3% and the Brussels events took their toll on the Pound; all this triggered a massive selloff and a move below 1.4230.

[Image: 6Fnpljn.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair broke 1.4350 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, showing that bearish pressure was present and that the sellers are ready to take back control. However, a major role was played by the sad events in Brussels. Price is already showing rejection near the support at 1.4230 and the Stochastic is starting to curve upwards in oversold territory; on top of that, price travelled more than 200 pips without clear retracement so today we expect to see limited upside movement in the form of retracements. If 1.4230 can be broken decisively, the downside is likely to continue.

Fundamental Outlook

Price direction today will be influenced by the U.S. housing data and by the technical aspect as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important economic releases.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ERASES LOSSES, BEARISH PRESSURE STILL PRESENT


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was still controlled by the sellers but downside movement lacks strong momentum and instead price is slowly crawling south. The U.S. New Home Sales showed the expected figure so the event didn’t create huge volatility.

[Image: vNl51Xw.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is having difficulties breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the downside, movement is slow and the latest trend is up. On top of that, the Stochastic has already reached oversold and is now struggling to move out of this territory so a lot of clues point towards a potential move up. If this is next, then the resistance at 1.1210 will be the first barrier, followed by the more distant one at 1.1320. To the downside, 1.1085 is the first support but this level is far away and the chances of it being hit today are slim.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the United States will release the Durable Goods Orders, an indicator which shows changes in the value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years. The expected figure is -3.0%, a hefty drop from the previous 4.9 and usually lower numbers weaken the US Dollar because they show decreased economic activity.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to weaken against the greenback and the support at 1.4230 is now clearly broken. Price did not retrace higher yesterday and instead just moved sideways for a couple of candles.

[Image: Ffk4hzy.jpg]

Technical Outlook

A bullish pullback is still anticipated and now both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are below their respective oversold levels, thus increasing the chances of upside movement. This potential pullback is likely to find resistance at 1.4230 but once it’s complete, we expect the pair to head towards the last known support located at 1.4050.

Fundamental Outlook

An important British economic indicator is released today at 9:30 am GMT: the Retail Sales. The forecast is a change of -0.7% from the previous 2.3% and if it comes true, we are likely to see Pound weakness because sales made at retail levels represent a major part of overall economic activity. As always, the U.S. indicators will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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FOREX NEWS: CHOPPY PRICE ACTION DURING GOOD FRIDAY


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair continued to grind lower yesterday, with just a small retracement to the upside, visible on the lower time frames. The U.S. Durable Goods Orders came out slightly better than forecast but still lower than previous and the release didn’t have a strong impact.

[Image: XWy0n7U.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the pair is now below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the descent is slow and lacks momentum. On top of that, the Stochastic is entering oversold for the second time in a short while and this is a strong indication that a move up will soon follow. If this happens, the first barrier is the level at 1.1210 but keep in mind that bearish pressure is still present and the greenback is strengthening.

Fundamental Outlook

Most European banks are closed today in observance of Good Friday; this is likely to bring irregular volatility and a difficult trading session. On the US Dollar side we have the Final version of the Gross Domestic Product, scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 1.0%, same as previous. The GDP is an economy’s main gauge of performance and although this is the least important version, higher numbers can strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to weaken against the US Dollar and the pair continued its descent until it came in close vicinity to the support at 1.4050 where a retracement is in the making.

[Image: tkWL81q.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are oversold for a relatively long time and the support at 1.4050 is showing good rejection. All this makes us anticipate a stronger retracement to the upside but doesn’t exclude another encounter with 1.4050 once this pullback is complete. British banks are also closed due to Good Friday so price behaviour is likely to be irregular and choppy.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom hasn’t scheduled any economic indicator releases for today so price direction will be influenced by the technical aspect and by the U.S. GDP numbers.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: THIN LIQUIDITY AS EASTER LEAVES ITS MARK ON THE FINANCIAL MARKETS


EUR/USD



Forex News: Price action Friday was choppy and mostly sideways, mainly because European banks were closed due to Good Friday. The Final version of the U.S. GDP showed a higher than expected value but the release was mostly overlooked.

[Image: KqK1e6d.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The sideways movement seen Friday is likely to continue today because of low liquidity generated by the Easter Holiday. The levels to watch are 1.1210 as resistance and 1.1085 as support but an accurate technical prediction cannot be made for the reason mentioned above. Also, volatility is likely to be irregular, meaning we may see strong moves followed by reversals or ranging periods. 

Fundamental Outlook

Europe celebrates Easter today, thus major banks will be closed and economic activity kept to a minimum. This will probably translate into slow and irregular movement. On the US Dollar side the most notable indicator is the Pending Home Sales, scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a 1.2% change compared to the previous -2.5%. Higher numbers are beneficial for the greenback, showing a healthy house market but the impact is not always strong.


GBP/USD

Similar to the other pair, the GBP/USD had a slow session Friday, without any spectacular advances to either side.

[Image: iiY0Dah.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Probably the pair will show irregular movement today but the latest bias is bearish and a bullish retracement occurred late last week. Normal behaviour after a move against the trend is a resumption of the previous trend, thus a move lower is expected; however, given the circumstances, caution is advised. First important lower barrier remains 1.4050 while to the upside the 50 period Exponential Moving Average may act as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the Pound will have a slow day from a fundamental perspective as no major indicators are released and most UK banks are closed due to Easter Monday.
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FOREX NEWS: LIQUIDITY BACK TO NORMAL, ALL EYES ON FED CHAIR YELLEN’S SPEECH


EUR/USD



Forex News: Price action was slow for the most part of yesterday’s early trading session but in the afternoon a bullish breakout took place and now resistance is being tested.

[Image: wrE4aBe.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair broke above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is testing 1.1210 from below. In this move a big part was played by the thin liquidity generated by the Easter Holiday so once things get back to normal we may see a move lower. If this occurs, then 1.1210 will be confirmed as resistance and the next target will become the support zone around 1.1085.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is today’s first potential market mover, scheduled for release at 10:00 am GMT and expected to show a number of 93.9. About 5,000 households are involved in this survey and usually a higher value suggests that respondents are confident about the economic situation and possibly that consumer spending will increase; this usually brings strength to the US Dollar.

The second important event of the day is Fed Chair Yellen’s speech scheduled at 11:30 am GMT and titled Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. As always when heads of central banks deliver public speeches, the respective currency can show strong and sometimes irregular movement so caution is advised.


GBP/USD

The Pound made substantial advances yesterday, breaking above 1.4230 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a 4-hour chart.

[Image: XV9yFC4.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s move can be attributed to the low liquidity created by the Easter Holiday but in any case, the pair is now sitting above 1.4230 and a bullish continuation is very possible. If moves south occur, 1.4230 may act as support, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but otherwise the resistance around 1.4350 is the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

The main focus today will be on the technical aspect because no major economic indicators are scheduled for release.
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FOREX NEWS: CHOPPY PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF U.S. JOBS, GERMAN INFLATION


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday we didn’t see much action but the pair did reach 1.1210 and is now showing signs of rejection. The U.S. consumer survey came out better than anticipated but the impact was mild.

[Image: meXzzOc.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is trapped between the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.1210 but a breakout is likely to occur today and the direction of this breakout is likely to determine the bias for the remainder of the day. The last couple of candles show long wicks in their upper part and this is a sign of rejection so we slightly favour the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important event of the day is a look at European inflation with the release of the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT. An increase of 0.6% is expected (previous 0.4%) and if better numbers are posted, the Euro is likely to strengthen.

At 12:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the Non-Farm Employment Change, showing how many new jobs were created in the previous month (excluding the farming industry and government). Although this report is not as important as the Government data that comes out 2 days later (Non-Farm Payrolls), higher numbers are usually beneficial for the US Dollar because a higher number of employed people suggests that consumer spending is likely to pick up in the near future.


GBP/USD

The pair continued yesterday the bullish movement started early in the week and bounced higher off of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The economic data didn’t have a strong impact and just created a small retracement lower.

[Image: Xb3Sgj4.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The moving average acted as good support for the pair and pushed price higher even if 1.4230 was briefly breached. For today we expect the bullish movement to continue and price to approach 1.4350. Although this level doesn’t look very strong, on a zoomed out chart it’s clear that it rejected price in the past so it may do so again. Keep an eye on the oscillators which are approaching overbought, a fact that may hinder upside movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow day again so the only major event is the release of the U.S. jobs data; other than that, the technical aspect will play a major role, as always.
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FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION STILL IN THE MIX, AS THE US DOLLAR TRIES TO ERASE LOSSES


EUR/USD




Forex News: German inflation increased 0.8% as shown by yesterday’s German Consumer Price Index and the Euro responded positively, strengthening and taking the pair above resistance. The U.S. jobs data came close to analysts’ expectations and did not have a substantial impact.



[Image: ErjuJu9.jpg]



Technical Outlook



Price is approaching the resistance at 1.1375 and if this level is broken, we expect a move into 1.1450. However, we must note the extreme overbought condition of both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index, thus we expect some sort of retracement lower before the assault on the mentioned resistance. First lower barrier and target is the level at 1.1320.



Fundamental Outlook



Inflation is again the day’s headline, but this time we are talking about the CPI for the entire Eurozone (Flash Estimate version). The release is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and the expected change is -0.1% (previous -0.2%). A higher value usually strengthens the Euro, taking the pair higher and the opposite is true for a lower value.





GBP/USD



The US Dollar weakened against the Pound as well, allowing the pair to climb above 1.4350 and to breach 1.4450, generating a bullish trading session.



[Image: ztGFx3V.jpg]



Technical Outlook



Similar to the other pair, the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are overbought and 1.4450 acted as strong resistance in the past so we expect bearish movement at this level or possibly at the previous significant high (1.4510). The first potential support is located at 1.4350 but keep in mind the short term trend is up so additional bullish movement after the said pullback is a distinct possibility.



Fundamental Outlook



Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference at the Financial Stability Board Plenary Meeting. The event takes place in Tokyo and the scheduled time is 7:00 am GMT. Whenever heads of central banks speak publicly, the impact may be strong, thus caution is recommended.


Another important British event is the release of the Final version of the Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. Although this is the least important version of the GDP, higher numbers are usually beneficial for the currency so bullish movement can be expected if the estimated figure of 0.5% is exceeded.
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FOREX NEWS: NON-FARM PAYROLLS TO “MAKE-OR-BREAK” THE US DOLLAR RECOVERY


EUR/USD


Forex News: After a brief period of sideways movement, yesterday the pair continued on its bullish route, moving clearly above resistance. The European inflation numbers came out close to analysts’ forecast and this was viewed as positive by market participants.

[Image: N5mHRya.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After the strong movement seen over the past few days, we expect a period of sideways price action and even bearish pullbacks due to the overbought condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index. The level at 1.1375 was an important turning point in the past but now price didn’t even flinch when it passed it so either the bulls are very strong or the current break is false and price will soon return below the mentioned level. Probably this question will be answered today by the release of the U.S. jobs data.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important release of the week is scheduled today at 12:30 pm GMT: the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change (also known as the Non-Farm Payrolls). This indicator shows how many new jobs were created during the past month and it is widely considered the best gauge of jobs market health in the United States. Today’s forecast is 206K new jobs, lower than the previous 242K but a higher number usually brings strength to the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair re-tested the level at 1.4350 and turned the zone into support but afterwards, movement was mixed. The speech of the BoE Governor did not trigger substantial moves.

[Image: BQUomES.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After the rejection seen at 1.4450 resistance, the bulls failed to take back control of the pair and now momentum seems to slow down. Both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are moving down, coming out of overbought and this increases the chances of a stronger move south but most of today’s directional movement will be determined by the economic data.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the British Manufacturing PMI, which is a survey derived from the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector. It acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher numbers than the anticipated 51.4 usually strengthen the Pound. The time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and later in the day the pair will be directly affected by the NFP release so caution is recommended.

We hope you had a profitable week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: ENCOURAGING NFP REPORT FAVOURS A US DOLLAR COMEBACK


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s main event was undoubtedly the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls which showed that 215K new jobs were created in March, more than the anticipated 206K. However, the Euro was resilient and erased most of the initial losses.

[Image: x05yfsJ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price action was mixed Friday but we expect the US Dollar to strengthen today and the pair to move down, below 1.1375. Both oscillators are coming down from overbought and the fundamental side favours the greenback, so the chances of a bearish move are high; the first lower barrier is represented by the support at 1.1320, while the first upper barrier is represented by the key resistance at 1.1450. 

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Factory Orders come out, showing changes in the value of total purchase orders placed with factories. It’s a leading indicator of production and higher numbers strengthen the greenback but the impact is often mild. The forecast is a -1.5% change compared to the previous 1.6%.


GBP/USD

The NFP report released Friday created a huge drop which took the pair below support and also showed that the bears still have a lot of underlying strength.

[Image: vN1fGkQ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is now trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.4230; if the bears can keep the pair below these levels, the downside movement will probably continue until 1.4050 is reached. We don’t expect this to happen today but it should be a viable destination for the near future. It’s possible to see slow movement today, with the bias determined by the British economic data. 

Fundamental Outlook

The only British indicator scheduled for today is the Construction PMI which is expected to show a 54.3 value, almost unchanged from the previous 54.2. This survey of purchasing managers acts as a leading indicator of economic health, with higher numbers being beneficial for the Pound as they show optimism regarding the future development of the Construction sector. The time of the release is 8:30 am GMT.
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