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GDMFX - Daily News
#41
Forex News: A crucial day for the Euro – ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference ahead

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair moved lower yesterday after the ADP Non Farm Employment report posted a reading of 191K, very close to the anticipated 192K. Although the number wasn’t better than anticipated, it was still a hefty increase from the previous value and the US dollar strengthened as a result.

[Image: 2014.04.03-A-crucial-day-for-the-Euro-EC...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The drop seen yesterday is a sign that bears are trying to take back control of the pair but the support located at 1.3760 couldn’t be broken, despite the strength exhibited by the greenback. If this support level is not broken quickly and price stalls or even bounces higher, it could be a sign that Euro still has underlying strength and that moves higher could follow. We have a very important day ahead as the ECB announces the Rate decision and S/R levels will probably be broken but the direction depends mainly on what ECB President Mario Draghi will say during the Press Conference.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB will announce the Euro Zone Interest Rate today at 11:45 am GMT (no change expected from the current 0.25%) but the main event of the day is the Press Conference which follows at 12:30 pm GMT. During this press conference, Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and then he will answer journalists’ questions; this second part of the conference is usually the one that creates the strongest moves as traders try to interpret his attitude and find hints about the Euro’s next direction.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s construction PMI released yesterday posted a lower than anticipated value, generating a weakening of the Pound. Good US employment data strengthened the US Dollar but although all ingredients were present for a major drop, this did not occur and the pair had slow movement.

[Image: 2014.04.03-A-crucial-day-for-the-Euro-EC...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below 1.6650 but the overall movement is sideways and neither bulls nor bears are in clear control. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme condition of the market so it doesn’t offer many clues regarding the next move and at the moment our bias is neutral on the pair, expecting a strong move in either direction. The main levels are 1.6600 as support, and 1.6750 as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 8:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released, but no change is expected from the current 58.2. A higher reading is regarded as beneficial for the Pound as the survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and acts as an indicator of economic health.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
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#42
Forex News: US Non Farm Employment report – a highly anticipated market mover

EUR/USD


Forex News: The ECB Interest Rate remained unchanged as expected but Mario Draghi’s comments about “unconventional” measures against deflation were perceived as bearish for the Euro and took the pair into major support.

[Image: 2014.04.04-US-Non-Farm-Employment-report...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s move puts the bears back in control of the pair, but an important barrier sits in front of falling prices: the support level located at 1.3710. If this support will be broken today, the next medium term target is 1.3550 but for the moment the Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold territory and support is still intact so retracements higher are possible. Today is an important day as US employment data is released and will probably overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the US Non Farm Employment report is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected figure is 199k, an increase from the previous 175K. Rising levels of employment are crucial for the American economy and suggest that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future, a fact considered bullish by market participants. Almost always this indicator is a huge market mover and has a major impact on price action so we recommend caution if trading at the time.


GBP/USD

Throughout yesterday’s trading session the pair had a bearish behavior, moving south of 1.6600 support on the back of a worse than anticipated value of the British Services PMI.

[Image: 2014.04.04-US-Non-Farm-Employment-report...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The current momentum is bearish and price broke 1.6600 to the down side once again. Under normal circumstances, this move could be easily continued during today’s trading session but the release of the US employment report will be the main event of the day and will probably dictate direction. The most important levels to watch are 1.6600 as resistance and 1.6480 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow day ahead in terms of British economic data and all focus will be on the US Non Farm Employment Change which has the potential to strengthen or weaken the greenback considerably, thus affecting the pair directly.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#43
Forex News: Pound highly affected by two important economic indicators

EUR/USD


Forex News: For almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session the bulls were in control of the pair’s movement and managed to take price above 1.3710. The German Industrial Production indicator posted a reading close to estimates and didn’t affect price action substantially.

[Image: 2014.04.08-Pound-highly-affected-by-two-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The oversold condition signaled previously by the Relative Strength Index helped the bulls to take price above 1.3710 yesterday and for today’s trading session we anticipate a touch of 1.3760 followed by a move lower, possibly into 1.3700 zone again. If the RSI becomes overbought in the mean time, chances of a drop will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Job Openings will be released today at 2:00 pm GMT, with an anticipated increase from the previous 3.97M to 3.99M. This is not a high impact indicator but it is focused on the jobs sector which is always important for the US economy and usually better than expected numbers strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair experienced a bullish trading session yesterday and moved above major resistance once again. Although price moved in a single direction for almost the entire day, the distance traveled was not huge and overall, trading was calm.

[Image: 2014.04.08-Pound-highly-affected-by-two-...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

For today’s trading session we anticipate a move lower, below 1.6600 but before that happens, a touch of 1.6650 resistance is a strong possibility. Neither bulls nor bears are in clear control of the pair but a decisive move below 1.6600 will make 1.6480 the next lower target. The United Kingdom has a busy day ahead in terms of economic releases so the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

UK’s Manufacturing Production will be released today at 8:30 am GMT; the forecast is a slight decrease from the previous 0.4% to 0.3%, a fact which would weaken the Pound since the manufacturing sector is of major importance to the British economy and makes up for about 80% of the entire Industrial production. The second important release of the day is the NIESR estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product, which comes out at 2:00 pm GMT. The estimated figure is 0.8% and higher values will probably take the pair north, on the back of Pound strength.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#44
Forex News: FOMC Meeting Minutes – the deciding factor of the day

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar exhibited weakness against most of its counterparts and this allowed the Euro to take the pair higher, above the resistance located at 1.3760. Throughout the day the bulls showed almost complete control of the pair.

[Image: 2014.04.09-FOMC-Meeting-Minutes-the-deci...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Although the bulls are in control of short term movement, the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart has moved above the level of 70, a fact which indicates an overbought market. This implies that retracements lower might occur today, especially if the pair touches 1.3830. The level of 1.3760 will probably become support and has the ability to reject price higher.

Fundamental Outlook

An important US event is scheduled today at 6:00 pm GMT: the FOMC Meeting Minutes which contain details about the latest Fed Meeting and the reasons that influenced the votes regarding the Federal Funds Rate. Hints about future monetary decisions may also be present, a fact which highly influences the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing Production surprisingly increased from the anticipated 0.3% to 1.0% and the Pound strengthened substantially as a result. The entire day was controlled by the bulls and resistance levels were broken with ease.

[Image: 2014.04.09-FOMC-Meeting-Minutes-the-deci...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Considering the latest strength showed by the Pound, we anticipate a move above 1.6750 resistance but before that can happen, a bearish retracement is expected. The Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory, a fact which adds to our belief that a move lower will occur before other advances will take place.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the British Trade Balance which tracks the difference between imported and exported goods. Although it is considered a medium impact indicator, surprising numbers can move the pair significantly. The release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the anticipated number is -9.3B, an increase from the previous -9.8B. Of course, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will have a direct impact on price direction.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#45
Forex News: Overbought markets call for a retracement

EUR/USD


Forex News: During yesterday’s trading session, the pair touched 1.3830 and US Dollar weakness generated by the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes pushed price even higher. The Minutes showed that speculation of an early rate increase might be wrong, a fact which triggered the mentioned greenback weakness.

[Image: 2014.04.10-Overbought-markets-call-for-a...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The market is controlled by the bulls and moves higher are anticipated. However, the Relative Strength Index is showing a severe overbought condition and this makes a move lower highly probable. The first level of interest to the down side is 1.3830 and if price will touch it, bullish movement is likely to resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Central Bank will release at 8:00 am GMT the Monthly Bulletin which contains information regarding the financial and economic data which was taken into consideration when the ECB decided at what level to set the interest rate. The Bulletin will also contain the Bank’s view on the current and future economic situation.

Some volatility may also be triggered by the G20 Meetings which take place today in Washington DC. One of the main subjects will be the Russia – Ukraine crisis, a topic which created strong movement in the past.


GBP/USD

The pair had slow movement ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, but it started to pick up speed once the Minutes were released and price moved comfortably above 1.6750 resistance.

[Image: 2014.04.10-Overbought-markets-call-for-a...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The clear break of 1.6750 opens the door for a touch and even a break of the year’s high located at 1.6822. Even if the momentum belongs to the bulls and the US Dollar shows clear signs of weakness, a dip lower is expected because the pair moved almost 250 pips without a retracement. Adding to this is the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index so we expect a move into 1.6750 before price continues higher to touch 1.6822.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will release today at 11:00 am GMT the interest rate which is not expected to change from the current 0.50% but almost always volatility accompanies this event. The Asset Purchase Facility will be announced at the same time; no change is expected (currently the value is 375 billion Pounds) but a higher value usually weakens the Pound while a lower one is considered bullish. If the Rate or the Asset Purchase Facility is modified in any way, an official statement will be released by the Bank of England, explaining the reasons which determined this decision.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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#46
Forex News: Can the bulls finish the week in total control?

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was characterized by a very small retracement lower followed by a move higher and a continuation of the previous bullish momentum. The Monthly Bulletin released by the ECB did not generate sharp moves, mainly because it didn’t show any surprising data.

[Image: 2014.04.11-Can-the-bulls-finish-the-week...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Even if the bulls’ strength is obvious, we expect a stronger retracement to the down side, considering the severely overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index. This retracement will most likely find support at 1.3830 where a bounce higher has a high probability of occurring. To the up side, the first major resistance level is located at 1.3965.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the day is the release of the German Consumer Price Index which is estimated to decrease from 1.2% to 1.0%. Inflation highly influences the ECB decision regarding future interest rates and higher than anticipated values have the ability to strengthen the Euro. The release is scheduled at 6:00 am GMT.

Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the United States will announce the Producer Price Index which is expected to change from -0.1% to 0.1%, a fact which would strengthen the US Dollar. The economic week finishes with the release of the US Consumer Confidence, scheduled at 1:55 pm GMT and anticipated to increase from the previous 80.0 to 81.2. Confidence among consumers is highly correlated with consumer spending so better numbers for today’s release will most likely strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Interest Rate remained unchanged at 0.50%, a fact which was anticipated by market participants and didn’t generate a lot of volatility. However, the pair moved lower during the day and almost touched the support located at 1.6750.

[Image: 2014.04.11-Can-the-bulls-finish-the-week...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s retracement didn’t manage to bring the Relative Strength Index below the 70 level so the market is still considered overbought, a fact which favors moves south. If such moves will occur today, the level of 1.6750 will act as good support and will probably push price higher, for another attempt to break 1.6822 resistance. The bulls are clearly in control of the pair so moves higher can occur without retracements lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a calm day ahead in terms of economic news releases so the pair will be influenced by the US indicators mentioned earlier and by technical factors.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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#47
Forex News: US Retail Sales generate strong moves

EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday was a slow day for the pair and the US Dollar struggled to drive the pair down but didn’t succeed although better than anticipated economic data was released by the United States.

[Image: 2014.04.14-US-Retail-Sales-generate-stro...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

On a four hour chart we can notice the fact that the Relative Strength Index started to move down, out of the overbought territory where it stayed for most of last week. This is indicative of a potential retracement lower, which will most likely touch 1.3830 support. Of course, price can continue to move north today as well, because indicators can signal an overbought condition for extended periods of time; if this is the case resistance will be provided by the level of 1.3965.

Fundamental Outlook

Euro Zone’s Industrial Production is released today at 9:00 am, with an estimated increase from the previous -0.2% to 0.3%. Higher than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the indicator doesn’t have a high impact on the market. The main event of the day is the release of the US Retail Sales scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. Retail sales are crucial for the overall state of the economy and higher values are considered bullish for the greenback; today’s forecast is an increase from the previous 0.3% to 0.8%.


GBP/USD

The pair retraced lower Friday and this move was generated by the positive US data we mentioned earlier; however, this doesn’t change the fact that bulls are in control of the pair’s direction.

[Image: 2014.04.14-US-Retail-Sales-generate-stro...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

As we mentioned in our Weekly analysis, the pair printed a double top at 1.6820, which is a bearish chart pattern. We anticipate another move up, into this resistance zone and we believe that if price indeed moves there, it will offer hints about future direction: a bounce would indicate that bears are stepping in and a stronger retracement lower is in order, while a break will most likely bring more buyers in the market. Today’s important levels are 1.6750 and 1.6680 as potential support.

Fundamental Outlook

Price action will be mostly influenced by the US Retail Sales and by technical factors as the United Kingdom doesn’t release any high-impact economic data.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
Thanks given by:
#48
Forex News: Retracements complete. Can the bulls resume the uptrend?

EUR/USD


Forex News: The release of the American Retail Sales didn’t create the expected strong movement but the week opened with a gap down which was mostly due to dovish comments made by Mario Draghi during the weekend.

[Image: 2014.04.15-Retracements-complete.-Can-th...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

During yesterday’s trading session the pair moved below the level located at 1.3830 but today we expect a move back up above this level and possibly an uptrend resumption. For the time being, Monday’s move lower is just a retracement and also a good place for more buyers to join the uptrend so our bias is bullish. A move below 1.3760 would severely weaken this uptrend and would put the bears in control.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be the day’s main release for the Euro. Scheduled at 9:00 am GMT, the indicator is expected to decrease to a value of 45 from the previous 46.6, a fact which would most likely weaken the Euro and drive the pair lower. The US Consumer Price Index which is one of the main gauges of inflation will be released later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT. The forecast is an increase to 1.4% from 1.1% and if it comes true, we will most likely see US Dollar strength and moves lower for the pair.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s trading session was rather slow, with the pair moving south during the first part of the day and climbing during the second. The pair had a high-to-low range of less than 50 pips and no special developments took place.

[Image: 2014.04.15-Retracements-complete.-Can-th...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

We anticipate an increase in traveled distance and stronger moves today. The bulls still have underlying strength so they are likely to take price above 1.6750, in an attempt to break the double top formed at 1.6822/20. To the down side, the first level of interest remains 1.6680 and a move below it would open the door for another break of 1.6600 support.

Fundamental Outlook

The main Pound-affecting event today is the release of United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index which is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. The CPI is closely watched by the Bank of England when the Interest Rate decision is made, hence the importance of this indicator. Higher than expected values usually strengthen the Pound and take the pair higher. Also, the pair’s direction will be affected by the release of the US Consumer Price Index.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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#49
Forex News: Bullish pressure heightens. Resistance levels tested again

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the German ZEW survey showed a disappointing value while the US Consumer Price Index came out better than expected but the pair was difficult to trade, especially on the lower time frames; growing tensions in Ukraine also contributed to this choppy price action.

[Image: 2014.04.16-Bullish-pressure-heightens.-R...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Although during the second part of yesterday’s session the Euro gained against the US Dollar, the level of 1.3830 couldn’t be broken to the up side, a fact which shows that indecision is present in the market. If the uptrend will resume, today we will probably see a break of the mentioned level; otherwise the support located at 1.3760 will become the first target and the uptrend will be severely weakened.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s most important event is the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. The current value is 0.5% and no change is expected but the CPI is the main gauge of inflation so the ECB closely watches it when the Interest Rate decision is made and higher values usually strengthen the Euro. Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the US Building Permits are released, offering insights into the American house market; the expected value is 1.00M, a small decrease from the previous 1.01M and under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index decreased to 1.6%, as anticipated but a huge whipsaw was seen once the number was released and price moved higher after an initial drop.

[Image: 2014.04.16-Bullish-pressure-heightens.-R...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The bullish momentum seems to fade away and no major advances were made after the double top formed at 1.6822. If price doesn’t cross soon the barrier located at 1.6750, the bears might step in to take control of the pair so for today the main levels to watch are 1.6750 as resistance and 1.6680 as support; the break of either level can trigger a continued move in that direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Claimant Count Change will be released; the estimated number is -30.2K, an increase compared to last month’s -34.6K and usually, higher levels of unemployment are detrimental for the Pound because jobless people spend less than people who are employed and consumer spending is crucial for the economy. The data released by the United States will directly affect the pair’s direction throughout the day.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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#50
Forex News: Last economic releases before the Easter Holidays

EUR/USD


Forex News: Euro Zone’s Consumer Price Index came out as expected, with a value of 0.5% and the US Building Permits didn’t post a surprise either. As a result, the pair lacked clear direction yesterday and price moved above and below 1.3830.

[Image: 2014.04.17-Last-economic-releases-before...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The bulls tried to take the pair above 1.3830 but the move was almost immediately reversed, a fact which shows underlying bear strength. However, once price moved below 1.3830, it just remained there and no strong moves occurred. This indicates that indecision is present in the market and almost anything can happen until a clear move is made by either bulls or bears. Our bias is neutral at the moment, in anticipation of a clear display of power from either side. The levels to watch are 1.3900 as resistance and 1.3760 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s most important events come from the US today: the Unemployment Claims are released at 12:30 pm GMT and anticipated to increase to 316K from last week’s 300K. A higher level of unemployment is detrimental to the US economy and to the US Dollar but the impact of the indicator is not consistent, mostly because it is released every week. The second economic release is the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which is a leading indicator of economic health focused on manufacturing performance in the Philadelphia district. Higher numbers than today’s anticipated 9.6 usually strengthen the greenback, driving the pair lower.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound scored another victory versus the US Dollar on the back of a better than expected value of Unemployment Rate. As a result, the pair broke 1.6750 resistance and touched 1.6820 again.

[Image: 2014.04.17-Last-economic-releases-before...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Price touched the resistance zone formed around 1.6820 for the third time, creating a Triple Top, which is a bearish pattern and is usually seen at the end of an uptrend. This is a major sign that moves south will follow if this triple top cannot be broken soon. The first level that can offer support is 1.6750 but we might also experience a ranging day because no major news releases are scheduled for the Pound.

Fundamental Outlook

Market participants will shift their attention towards the US for the releases mentioned above since the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news for today. The approaching of the Easter holidays may generate irregular movement and possibly increased volatility.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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