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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: POTENTIAL BREXIT TAKES CENTER STAGE, CARNEY’S TESTIMONY EYED


EUR/USD



Forex News: We’ve had a fairy uneventful day yesterday and price was not much affected by the release of economic indicators. Overall the day was bearish and the pair breached support.

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Technical Outlook

Price bounced lower at 1.1040 resistance, helped also by the overbought position of the Stochastic and now the pair is testing the support at 1.0960. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also in close vicinity but neither of the 2 mentioned forms of support were clearly broken so we are dealing with a classic bounce-or-break scenario: a break of support would increase the chances of a move into 1.0870 while a bounce would make 1.1040 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECOFIN Meetings take place today, attended by Finance Ministers from the European Union member states. The meetings are closed to the press so during the day we don’t expect major moves unless some participants talk to journalists; however, once the meetings have concluded, a formal statement will be released.


GBP/USD

The pair had a slow start of the week and remained between support and resistance yesterday. The fundamental scene was lackluster and this contributed to the lack of clear direction.

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Technical Outlook

The pair seems undecided as far as the next move is concerned but the short term bias remains bullish since the bears didn’t even manage to threaten support yesterday. The immediate target is the resistance at 1.4230 but the Stochastic is just curving downwards, coming out of overbought so it’s possible to see another bounce lower if the level is touched again. A lot will depend on Mark Carney’s speech scheduled today, which will probably overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:15 am GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify before the Parliamentary Committee, with the topic being United Kingdom’s European Union membership. A potential separation of the UK from the European Union (widely known as Brexit) would trigger huge moves on the Pound and this is the reason why today’s speech is the main headline. The impact is not known and depends mostly on Carney’s attitude and answers.
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FOREX NEWS: INCREASED BREXIT RISKS WEAKEN THE POUND, EURO SUFFERS FROM LACKLUSTRE FUNDAMENTAL SCENE


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the Euro and US Dollar had a normal trading session, without any major surprises. The pair bounced at support but failed to break resistance.

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Technical Outlook

Price touched twice in a short while the resistance located at 1.1040 but failed to break it, showing that the bulls lack clear strength. On top of that, both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are hovering close to overbought and all this increases the chances of a bounce lower. If this move occurs, the first support and target is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, followed by the level at 1.0960. To the upside the first potential resistance level is located at 1.1085.

Fundamental Outlook

Both the Euro and US Dollar lack major economic indicators today so we expect a trading session driven by the technical aspect. The pair is likely to remain choppy, in anticipation of Thursday’s ECB rate decision.


GBP/USD

Mark Carney’s speech triggered Pound weakness yesterday and we saw a false break of resistance, followed by a move lower, which did not threaten support.

[Image: wRhwDcZ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Risks of a potential Brexit take their toll on the Pound so the current move below 1.4230 is likely to extend at least into 1.4125. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also in close vicinity of the mentioned level so this area is likely to reject price higher; however, a bearish break of this zone will show that the sellers are trying to regain control of the pair, making 1.4050 a probable target.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 3:00 pm GMT, NIESR will release their estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product. The impact of this indicator varies from release to release but usually, numbers above the previous 0.4% strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for values below 0.4%.
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FOREX NEWS: ECB DEPOSIT RATE: TO CUT OR NOT TO CUT?


EUR/USD



Forex News: The resistance at 1.1040 rejected price yesterday and overall we had a bearish session, with a lacklustre fundamental environment.

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Technical Outlook

After the bounce near 1.1040, the pair headed into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and touched 1.0960 support. Currently this zone is not breached and price shows some signs of rejection (long wicks in the lower part of the candles) but the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index both show downside momentum. This creates a mixed situation and makes us believe that today’s the ECB rate decision will dictate the next move.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:45 pm GMT the European Central Bank announces their decision regarding rates. The interest rate is not expected to change (0.05%) but the deposit rate is expected to drop from the current -30% to -0.40%. This will most likely create a strong impact on the Euro and probably downside action but extra caution is recommended. ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference at 1:30 pm GMT, discussing the rate decision and this is another reason for increased volatility.


GBP/USD

The British GDP estimate was released 23 minutes earlier than initially scheduled and showed a value of 0.3%, lower than the forecast 0.4%. However, this didn’t affect much the currency and the pair had a choppy trading session.

[Image: PoHhF0Z.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is testing the resistance at 1.4230 once again but the oscillators are still moving south and neither side seems in clear control. A bullish break of 1.4230 followed by a re-test from above would suggest that the pair’s next destination is the level at 1.4350 and a move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will make 1.4050 a likely target (probably not reached in one day). It’s also possible to see a ranging session today because the Pound is not affected by major news releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t prepare any economic indicator releases for today so the technical aspect will be the main focus.
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FOREX NEWS: THE AFTERMATH OF THE ECB SURPRISE MOVE


EUR/USD



Forex News: The ECB decided to cut the interest rate to 0.00% and the deposit rate to -0.4%, facts which initially weakened the Euro, as expected. However, a sharp rise of more than 300 pips soon followed and now the pair is doing the opposite of what was expected after a cut of interest rates.

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Technical Outlook

The market’s next move is extremely hard to predict, considering the reaction seen yesterday. After such a strong move, we are likely to see a retracement lower or even a period of sideways movement. The levels to watch remain 1.1040 as potential support and 1.1160 as potential resistance. We recommend caution throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook

The fundamental scene is calm today and no important indicators are released by either Europe or the United States. This fact is likely to generate a slow and possibly choppy trading session.


GBP/USD

Although the Pound wasn’t affected yesterday by any economic indicators, the surprising decision of the European Central Bank extended its effects on the pound – dollar pair as well.

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Technical Outlook

Similar to the EUR/USD, price moved lower then reversed immediately and broke resistance, creating a difficult to trade environment. A quick move below 1.4230 would suggest that the bulls cannot continue their “attack” and that we will see a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.4125. This level is also the last tested support as confirmed by yesterday’s price action. If the pair remains above 1.4230 we are likely to see a touch of 1.4350.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Trade Balance is released, expected to show a value of -10.3B compared to the previous -9.9B. This is a medium impact indicator that shows the difference between imported and exported goods; usually a number that’s higher than forecast strengthens the Pound but the impact may vary from release to release.
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FOREX NEWS: TECHNICAL WARNING: OVERBOUGHT LEVELS MAY TRIGGER BEARISH ACTION


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday the pair retraced lower as it was expected after such a huge bullish move, but soon bounced higher, confirming 1.1085 as support.

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Technical Outlook

Today we are likely to see slow price action, mainly because the pair will not be affected by important economic indicators. The main levels to watch are 1.1210 as resistance and 1.1085 as support but we don’t expect to see a break of either one. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are both coming down from overbought territory and this increases the chances of downside action but the short term bias is bullish. 

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurozone Industrial Production numbers are released today at 10.00 am GMT, showing changes in the total value of output delivered by the industrial sector. The expected change is 1.7% compared with last month’s -1.0% but the indicator has a very low impact more often than not; still, higher numbers can be beneficial for the Euro.


GBP/USD

The British Trade Balance released Friday matched analysts’ expectations and didn’t have a strong impact on the Pound but nonetheless, the pair continued the bullish momentum started Thursday and moved above resistance.

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Technical Outlook

The break of the resistance at 1.4350 shows that the bulls control short-to-medium price action and that we are likely to see a break of 1.4450 en route to 1.4565. However, we don’t expect to see such strong moves today and instead expect a re-test from above of 1.4350. If this re-test results in a bounce, the level will turn into support and the chances of a bullish continuation will increase. Both oscillators are overbought, a fact that makes bullish advances more difficult.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so we expect a slow session, mainly driven by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. RETAIL SALES – A CATALYST FOR THE GREENBACK’S RECOVERY


EUR/USD



Forex News: Eurozone’s Industrial Production numbers came out better than expected yesterday, but the release didn’t have a strong impact and the overbought condition of both oscillators contributed to a bearish session.

[Image: qyVWQEW.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The overall bias remains bullish but the pair is likely to break the support at 1.1085 and to reach the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are moving out of overbought, thus increasing the chances of a continued move lower but only a break of the 50 period EMA would confirm such a scenario. In the meantime, keep in mind that the huge bullish impulse seen last week may continue; 1.1160 is the first barrier in front of rising price.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Retail Sales are today’s main event, scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator measures changes in the total volume of sales made through retail venues and is usually a strong market mover. Higher values than the expected -0.1% (previous 0.2%) are beneficial for the US Dollar, suggesting increased economic activity.


GBP/USD

The pair wasn’t affected by any news or economic releases but the US Dollar erased some of the losses incurred last week and moved below 1.4350.

[Image: nlbKYav.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current move down is a correction to the medium term uptrend started at the end of February and once this move is completed, we expect price to continue on its way to 1.4450 and possibly 1.4565. For the time being, both oscillators are moving south, coming from overbought so we favour a possible move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; there, the chances of bullish action will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The technical aspect will be the day’s main focus as the Pound will not be affected by any economic releases; however, the U.S. Retail Sales will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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FOREX NEWS: IS THE FED PREPARING A HUGE SURPRISE? ALL EYES ON FED RATE MEETING


EUR/USD



Forex News: The Euro was resilient yesterday but the support at 1.1085 was breached and the pair came close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The U.S. Retail Sales matched analysts’ expectations and overall we had a slow, grinding trading session.

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Technical Outlook

The pair is approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart and this may be a good place for the bulls to enter the market again, taking price higher. The first upper target is the resistance at 1.1160, followed by the more important level located at 1.1210. To the downside the moving average is the first barrier and a break would open the door for a move into 1.0960 during the next days. The technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental today as the Fed makes public the rate decision.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the US Dollar will be affected by the release of the American CPI, which is considered a key gauge of inflation. The forecast is -0.2% and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the currency. Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT the Fed will announce their rate decision, accompanied by a FOMC Rate Statement and the FOMC Economic Projections on economic growth for the next 2 years. The rate is not expected to change from the current <0.50% but surprises can happen and on top of that, half an hour later (6:30 pm GMT), Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference, discussing the rate; this is another reason for increased volatility, thus caution is recommended until things calm down.


GBP/USD

The pair broke support yesterday and soon after that, the US Dollar erased almost all losses incurred last week. The session was strongly bearish and now price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

[Image: FCECqD5.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair’s fast travel south is likely to touch the support at 1.4125 and retrace higher, even if afterwards the level might be broken to the downside. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are both approaching oversold and the medium term trend is bullish, thus favouring a move up once support is touched. The first upward target is the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Claimant Count Change is released today at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a number of -8.8K (previous -14.8K). The indicator shows the change in the number of people asking for unemployment related benefits and usually has a medium impact on the Pound, with lower numbers strengthening it. Later in the day, the pair will be directly affected by the Fed cluster of events so caution is recommended throughout the day.
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FOREX NEWS: DOVISH FED WEAKENS THE US DOLLAR ACROSS THE BOARD


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair had a bearish tone ahead of the FOMC events but the dovish speech of Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the FOMC projections of 2 rate hikes during 2016 instead of 4, created substantial US Dollar weakness and a strong move up.

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Technical Outlook

The dovish stance adopted by the Fed is likely to bring additional greenback weakness and we will probably see an attempt to break the resistance zone surrounding 1.1300. However, it’s possible for price to bounce lower at 1.1210, considering that the level acted as strong resistance in the past and at the moment it is not yet broken. A bounce lower would find potential support at 1.1160.

Fundamental Outlook

The Final version of the European Consumer Price Index is released today at 10:00 am GMT, showing changes in inflation throughout Europe. This version is the least important because German inflation data and European Flash Estimate have been announced already, but still the release shouldn’t be overlooked as higher numbers than the expected -0.2% could strengthen the Euro.

On the US Dollar side we have the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which offers insights into the state of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia district. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the forecast is -1.4; higher numbers are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar had a strong session against the Pound before the Fed release, but the dovish outlook presented by Fed Chair Yellen weakened it and triggered a perfect bounce higher from support.

[Image: U7DPHhe.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.4050 proved too much for the sellers and once it was touched, price moved strongly north. If the current move can break clearly the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the level at 1.4230, then we the chances of a move back up into 1.4350 will increase; otherwise, the pair is likely to descend into 1.4125 again.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate but no change is expected (current 0.50%). At the same time a Monetary Policy Summary is released, outlining the reasons that generated the decision. Even if the BOE will maintain rates at the current level (highly probable), the event is likely to trigger some volatility at the time so caution is recommended.
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FOREX NEWS: SMALL DIPS EXPECTED AS THE US DOLLAR CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE


EUR/USD



Forex News: The bullish momentum started Wednesday continued throughout yesterday’s trading session and the US Dollar continued to lose ground against its peers. The U.S. Manufacturing data surpassed analysts’ expectations but this only gave a small boost to the greenback.

[Image: 7nTpPCs.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is now struggling to break the resistance around 1.1310 but both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are in overbought territory, thus increasing the chances of a move below the said resistance. The first potential support is represented by the level at 1.1210 and if touched, we expect price to resume its upward motion. On the other hand, a break of 1.1310 would delay the anticipated retracement until 1.1375 is reached.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the release of the U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey put together by the University of Michigan. This survey tries to gauge financial confidence among consumers and acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending, thus higher values than the forecast 92.1 are usually beneficial for the US Dollar; the scheduled release time is 2:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England did not change the interest rate but this was widely anticipated so the event didn’t trigger massive moves. However, we had a bullish session yesterday, continuing the previous impulse.

[Image: o23iXlf.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved strongly north and this shows that the bulls are in control of short-to-medium term price action. However, the resistance at 1.4450 is not yet clearly broken and both oscillators are approaching overbought. This may suggest that once the current bull run slows down, price will start a retracement to the downside. If 1.4450 is broken then this will become a good support, otherwise 1.4350 is likely to stop falling prices.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t prepare any major economic or financial releases for today so price direction will be influenced by the US consumer survey and by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: BULLS SLOW DOWN, BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS


EUR/USD



Forex News: The U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey released Friday showed a worse than expected figure but the pair moved slowly to the downside nonetheless. This move was mostly triggered by technical reasons.

[Image: 0nsY3Kj.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The strong climb seen last week triggered a rubber-band effect and thus a retracement lower which doesn’t necessarily mean that the upward motion will reverse. Instead, we consider that the bullish impulse will continue at least until 1.1375 is reached but probably this won’t happen today. We are likely to see a slow session, with movement between 1.1320 and 1.1210. 

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major releases and the only notable economic indicator comes from the United States in the form of the Existing Home Sales. The indicator shows the annualized number of houses sold during the previous month, without taking into consideration new buildings. A higher number is usually beneficial for the greenback but the impact is often mild; the expected figure is 5.32M and the time of release is 2:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

Friday was slow and the pair didn’t make significant advances to either side but this was expected after such a strong climb as the one seen last week.

[Image: NqaTcjT.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Recent price action confirmed 1.4450 as short term support and now we can expect the resistance at 1.4565 to be touched in the near future. However, both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are moving in overbought territory, meaning that bearish pressure is starting to accumulate. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we are in for a big move down but warns that further bullish advances may be harder to achieve. Keep an eye on 1.4565 as this level is the next resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be mostly driven by the technical aspect as no major indicators have been scheduled for release today.
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