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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: HEIGHTENED BREXIT RISKS DRIVE THE POUND LOWER


EUR/USD



Forex News: The German Manufacturing data disappointed yesterday, contributing to the weakening of the Euro and consequently a bearish day during which support was breached.

[Image: qFCJL93.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.1040 was broken yesterday but the pair didn’t threaten 1.0980 and price action currently shows rejection. The Relative Strength Index is oversold abut the Stochastic is just crossing near its 50 level so the oscillator don’t show clear momentum; however, as long as the pair trades below 1.1085 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we maintain our bearish bias and expect a break of 1.0980.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey is released and expected to show a value of 107.0, little changed from the previous 107.3. The sample size for this survey is very large, of about 7,000 businesses and usually has a hefty influence on the Euro, with higher numbers strengthening it.

The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey comes out later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding overall economic conditions. The forecast is 97.4 and usually higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened severely due to increased risks regarding a Brexit and the pair opened with a weekly gap. The fall continued throughout yesterday and the pair threatened support.

[Image: rz4GEgl.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After a big drop the pair rebounded around 1.4050 and moved back above 1.4125 but the heightened risks surrounding a potential Brexit will probably continue to weaken the Pound and drive the pair lower. The support at 1.4050 represents an important level that will most likely be touched again in the near future and today we expect the pair to move lower but the direction will depend on the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify on economic outlook and inflation at 10:00 am GMT, before the Parliament's Treasury Committee. The testimony and more importantly Carney’s attitude will probably have a strong impact on the Pound and on top of that, any rumors or news about a potential Brexit will add more volatility so caution is recommended throughout the day.
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FOREX NEWS: WARNING: SUPPORT AHEAD. BULLS STEP IN?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Both the German and American surveys showed worse than anticipated numbers yesterday and this created mixed, up and down movement; however the pair was mostly bearish, threatening support.

[Image: 9wwBHwv.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action confirmed 1.1040 as short term resistance and threatened 1.0980 but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are both close to oversold territory and this increases the chances of a move up. Even if our bias is still bearish, we expect some upside price action today, possibly above 1.1040 and into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. New Home Sales come out, showing the annualized number of homes sold during the previous month and offering insights into the state of the American housing market. The expected figure is 522K, a drop from the previous 544K and usually a higher number strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is often limited.


GBP/USD

Price action slowed down compared to Monday’s sharp selloff but the pair moved again near long term support and bounced slightly higher.

[Image: n9Iy0fm.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price travelled a long distance in a short while and now is having trouble breaking the previous low. All this combined with the oversold position of the two oscillators makes us anticipate a bounce higher, possibly above 1.4125. However, the overall picture is bearish and a break of 1.4050 would probably bring in more sellers that would take the pair lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead is slow for the Pound in terms of economic releases so the price direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect and by the U.S. New Home Sales mentioned earlier.


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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR MAKES HISTORICAL ADVANCES AGAINST POUND; RETRACEMENTS IN PLAY


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair erased early losses once the US housing data was released, showing a worse than expected number (forecast 522K, actual 494K). Also, yesterday’s price action established support at 1.0960.

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Technical Outlook

The bears are still in control of the pair despite the bounce at 1.0960 support seen yesterday. A good place for downside price action to resume is the resistance at 1.1040, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; the oscillators are starting to move up after being oversold, increasing the chances of a deeper retracement, probably into the moving average.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Final version of the Consumer Price Index comes out today at 10:00 am GMT but no change is expected from the previous 0.4%. Also this is the last version of the indicator and tends to be the least important but nonetheless, higher numbers are beneficial for the Euro.

At 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. Durable Goods Orders are released, with a forecast change of 3.0% (previous -5.0%). Increased numbers for this indicator show a thriving economy and usually strengthen the greenback but the strongest impact is seen if the actual number surpasses the forecast, not only the previous value.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar felt the consequences of a deteriorating house market and weakened at the time of the release. However, yesterday the bears made significant advances and broke 1.4050 without any effort.

[Image: JrEI3Ti.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The next lower barrier is located at 1.3655, a level last touched in 2009; however, this is still far away and not so important at the moment. The oscillators are oversold and this means that we might see a longer retracement to the upside, with 1.4050 being the first potential target. To the downside, yesterday’s low at 1.3880 is the first support. Our bias remains bearish but a retracement higher is due.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product is released today at 9:30 am GMT. The GDP is the main gauge of overall economic performance thus higher values suggest increased activity and a thriving economy, a thing that often means a stronger currency. The expected figure is 0.5%, same as previous.
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FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION, U.S. GDP AND G20 MEETINGS – ENDING THE WEEK ON A HIGH NOTE


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the pair had a very choppy trading session and although the U.S. economic data was better than anticipated, price was reluctant to drop.

[Image: 9tIUmvP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The latest candles show long wicks, which is a sign of indecision and the resistance at 1.1040 seems hard to break. The overall bias remains bearish but a bullish retracement is still due; however, if the pair continues to trade below 1.1040 and the buyers don’t manage to break above this level, we expect to see a drop into 1.0960.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s a big day for the Euro as the German Preliminary CPI is released today at 1:00 pm GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation and the German economy is the most important in the Eurozone so the indicator will probably have a strong impact. Higher numbers than the expected 0.6% (previous -0.8%) are usually beneficial for the Euro.

The US Dollar will be strongly affected by the Preliminary version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product which is anticipated to show a change of 0.4% from the previous 0.7%. Since the GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s overall performance, higher values usually bring a stronger currency so we are likely to see moves lower for the pair if the actual value is higher than the forecast.


GBP/USD

The British Gross Domestic Product released yesterday matched analysts’ expectations so the impact on the Pound was mild and overall the pair showed a choppy trading session.

[Image: ajc23dN.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s choppy price action doesn’t hold a lot of clues for future short term direction. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are both still exiting oversold and this means that a correction to the upside is very possible; also the minor support at 1.3880 wasn’t threatened and this shows that the bears are not too eager to make new advances for the moment. However, keep in mind that we are in a clear downtrend and the possibility of sharp drops should not be overlooked.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic indicator releases but the G20 Meetings start today, attended by key personalities of the political and financial scene so we are likely to see increased volatility.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS GAIN MOMENTUM, ECONOMIC DATA TO INFLUENCE SHORT TERM DIRECTION


EUR/USD



Forex News: The Preliminary version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product released Friday showed a much better than expected value, contributing to the drop that took the pair below support.

[Image: L0ZhOHe.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After a rejection seen at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair broke the previous low (located very close to 1.0960) and finished the week on a strong bearish note. Today we will probably see a continuation of Friday’s downside action but 1.0960 is likely to be tested from below due to the fact that a fast down move is usually followed by a correction to the upside. The economic data released throughout the day will decide the day’s bias.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Consumer Price Index comes out, showing changes in European inflation. The previous value was 0.3% and for today’s release the forecast is 0.0%. German inflation data (which represents a hefty part of overall European inflation) was already released last week but nonetheless, higher than expected numbers can strengthen the Euro, driving the pair higher.

The U.S. Pending Home Sales come out later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, expected to show a change of 0.6% compared to the previous 0.1%. Higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar but the indicator is considered to have medium impact.


GBP/USD

Positive U.S. data strengthened the US Dollar, taking the pair significantly lower Friday and re-establishing the control of the bears.

[Image: kLHnovO.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the support at 1.3880 was broken late in Friday’s trading session, we cannot consider this to be a definitive break because price is still too close to the level. The overall picture is bearish but we cannot rule out a bullish reaction and thus a move above the mentioned level. The oscillators offer mixed signals and not a lot of clues about future direction so today we are likely to see a session driven by the economic data scheduled for release.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the British Net Lending to Individuals, released at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 5.2B, while the previous was 4.4B. The report tracks changes in the total amount of credit issued to individuals and can be a leading indicator of consumer spending, with higher numbers strengthening the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR REMAINS STRONG AHEAD OF MANUFACTURING DATA


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the Eurozone Consumer Price Index showed a disappointing value, lower than analysts had anticipated, thus the single currency weakened, allowing the pair to travel south.

[Image: gh64ctS.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After a brief retracement higher, which confirmed 1.0960 as resistance, the pair moved down, meeting support at 1.0870. Here we are likely to see a stall, sideways movement or even a jump higher but overall the picture is bearish and we anticipate a break of 1.0870, followed by a touch of the key support located at 1.0800.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is released, showing the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector regarding business conditions in said sector. The survey usually acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar. For today’s release a small increase is anticipated, from the previous 48.2 to 48.5.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar had a session that completely lacked direction, moving above and below minor support. The fundamental scene was lackluster, contributing to the choppy trading session.

[Image: GVZFtEe.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action created another minor support around 1.3840 and the overall direction remains bearish but the next move is hard to anticipate. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are starting to move upwards after reaching oversold and this suggests that a move north is next but on the other hand, the main trend is bearish so the extent of this potential move up will be most likely limited. A break of 1.3840 will probably bring in more sellers.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 9:30 am GMT, and is expected to show a value of 52.3, lower than the previous 52.9. Just like the American indicator with the same name, this survey acts as a leading indicator of economic performance and can strengthen the Pound if it shows higher than anticipated numbers.
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FOREX NEWS: INDECISION STARTS TO SET IN. FIRST LOOK AT U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA MAY CLEAR THE FOG


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair showed choppy movement for the most part of yesterday but a better than expected U.S. Manufacturing PMI gave the US Dollar a boost in the afternoon and brought some volatility.

[Image: RvqunXI.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price action yesterday was mostly characterized by indecision but nonetheless the pair remained below 1.0870 and the greenback benefited from better than anticipated economic data which generated optimism. We maintain our opinion that soon price will reach the key support at 1.0800 but we don’t rule out upside corrections, mostly due to the oversold position shown by the 2 oscillators and the long lower wicks shown by the last candles.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight is the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a report which offers a first look into the United States jobs situation. It is put together by a privately owned company, Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and doesn’t hold the same importance as the Government released data which comes out 2 days later. However, it’s still considered a high impact indicator and values above the forecast 185K (previous 205K) are usually beneficial for the US Dollar. The scheduled release time is 1:15 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

Although the British Manufacturing PMI showed a disappointing value, the pair climbed in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, most of the gains were erased later in the afternoon.

[Image: Nc0UlZB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bullish candles have small bodies and some of them show long wicks in both the upper and lower side. This is a clear sign of indecision and shows that yesterday’s move up is not very solid. The fact that price came in close vicinity of the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average and then moved lower, adds to our opinion that a bigger drop is likely to follow, with the first target being 1.3880, followed by 1.3840. To the upside, the 50 EMA is still first resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound continues to be affected by Purchasing Managers’ Indexes and this time it’s the Construction PMI, which will offer insights into the performance of the said sector. Today’s forecast for this indicator is 55.5 and the time of the release is 9:30 am GMT. As a rule of thumb, higher numbers strengthen the Pound and as always, the U.S. employment data will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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FOREX NEWS: EURO LINGERS BETWEEN SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE, POUND GAINS


EUR/USD



Forex News: The euro-dollar continued to drift without direction and despite a better than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment report, the pair didn’t make any significant downside advances yesterday.

[Image: e9lP0NM.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Indecision now rules the pair and it seems like market participants are waiting for Friday’s NFP report before choosing a clear direction. For now the level at 1.0870 can offer some resistance but not a strong one and support is still located at 1.0800. The oversold position of the oscillators and the fact that bears haven’t made significant advances during the last days suggests that a move up is next but the medium term downtrend is still bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro will not be affected by major economic indicators today and on the US Dollar side we have the Non-Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of purchasing managers outside the manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health, with mixed impact on the greenback. Usually higher numbers than the expected 49.8 (previous 53.5) strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound moved higher yesterday, even if the British Construction PMI showed a disappointing value. The release created a brief moment of downside movement but the bulls quickly took control and took the pair to new highs.

[Image: UNKkCo4.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair broke the resistance zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the level at 1.4050. Unless we see a quick reversal here, the pair is likely to travel into 1.4125 but by the time the level is touched, the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index will probably become overbought, thus increasing the chances of a drop south.

Fundamental Outlook

The last British Purchasing Managers’ Index in the series is announced today at 9:30 am GMT: the Services PMI. This survey is of course focused on business and economic conditions in the services sector and can strengthen the Pound if it shows readings above the forecast of 55.1. The impact is often muted, especially if the actual value does not differ a lot from forecast.
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FOREX NEWS: EURO, POUND GAIN AGAINST THE US DOLLAR. A SURPRISING NFP REPORT CAN TURN THE TIDE


EUR/USD



Forex News: The Euro strengthened against the US Dollar yesterday and moved decisively above immediate resistance. The climb was mainly influenced by technical reasons as the US Non-Manufacturing PMI came close to analysts’ forecast, thus the impact was mild.

[Image: Vwojqif.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current up move is rapidly approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.0960. This level acted as a good barrier for price in the past so we can expect some sort of reaction when it will be touched again. Also, the moving average is in close vicinity, creating a confluence zone which will be tough to break. The probability of a reversal in this zone is high but today’s price direction will be heavily influenced by the U.S. jobs data.

Fundamental Outlook

The most anticipated release of the week is finally here: the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. This report is widely considered the most important employment related data for the U.S. economy and shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month. A higher number than the anticipated 195K (previous 151K) is beneficial for the US Dollar, suggesting also that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future. The scheduled time of release is 1:30 pm GMT and high volatility is expected.


GBP/USD

Despite a disappointing survey for the Services sector, the Pound continued to gain and the pair moved above resistance during yesterday’s trading session.

[Image: 3jXQGbj.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After moving above 1.4050, the pair re-tested it and bounced higher, thus turning the level into support. Also, price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the short term bias is bullish but from a longer term perspective, we are still in a downtrend. Note that the oscillators are moving into overbought and this increases the chances of a move lower but as mentioned before, the fundamental aspect will have a big influence on today’s price direction.

Fundamental Outlook


The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases but all eyes will be on the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, which will have a direct impact on the pair.
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FOREX NEWS: EFFECTS OF THE NFP STILL IN PLAY. THE US DOLLAR RETALIATES


EUR/USD



Forex News: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report released Friday showed that 242K new jobs were created during the previous month. This was more than the anticipated 195K but the pair still moved higher, after just a brief dip.

[Image: 44UrUpa.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The effects of the better than expected NFP report are likely to be seen early this week and we expect price to move lower after the touch of 1.1040 resistance, seen Friday. Adding to this bias is the overbought position of the Stochastic and the fact that the Relative Strength Index is close to its 70 level (almost overbought). The first target for the day is 1.0960 but if 1.1040 is broken to the upside, we expect a touch of 1.1085.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 7:00 am GMT the German Factory Orders are released, showing changes in the value of total orders placed with factories for industrial products. A higher change than the anticipated -0.4% suggests that manufacturers will increase their activity to fill these orders and this usually has a positive impact on the Euro but the extent is limited.

Also today, the Eurogroup Meetings take place and this may trigger some volatility if important matters are discussed. Keep in mind that the Meetings are closed to the press but sometimes participants talk to journalists before the meetings have concluded.


GBP/USD

Similar to the euro-dollar, the Cable had a bullish day Friday, although the U.S. jobs market showed improvement. The pair remained above the moving average, further weakening the downtrend.

[Image: MdKPkgP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action confirmed 1.4125 as short term support so we can now expect this level to reject falling prices. The resistance at 1.4230 was tested but not broken and today we expect the pair to bounce lower from this zone, considering that both oscillators are overbought. It’s possible to see ranging price action, with the pair confined between the two levels mentioned earlier.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major indicators on the Pound’s schedule for today so we expect price direction to be influenced only by the technical aspect.
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