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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: EURO’S FATE RESTS ON DRAGHI’S SHOULDERS


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair tested resistance yesterday but bounced lower despite a worse than expected value of the American Consumer Price Index. This just goes to show that the US Dollar is starting to gain momentum against the Euro.

[Image: GkSujWV.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.0945 was surpassed yesterday and price came in close vicinity of 1.0980 but bounced lower. If the uptrend line seen on the chart above and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average are clearly broken, we expect the pair to move below 1.0870 and closer to 1.0800. As an alternate scenario, a bounce at the trend line would suggest another encounter with resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB will announce today at 12:45 pm GMT the interest rate, which is not expected to change from the current 0.05% but the likelihood of strong movement is high nonetheless. At 1:30 pm GMT ECB President Mario Draghi will hold the usual press conference, explaining the reasons behind the rate decision and answering journalists’ questions. This event will probably create the biggest volatility of the day but the direction will depend on Draghi’s attitude and answers.


GBP/USD

The British unemployment numbers showed yesterday that less people applied for social help and the pair slightly retraced higher. However, this can also be attributed to the recent strong drop that was in need of a rebound.

[Image: a7z0CE1.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bearish trend found short term support at 1.4125 and we expect the pair to move higher, possibly into 1.4230. If this potential resistance will not stop the climb, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will be the next turning point where downwards movement may resume. The oscillators are starting to move above their respective oversold levels and this increases the chances of a deeper retracement to the north.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so the pair’s direction will be mainly dependant on the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: EURO BREAKS SUPPORT, POUND AFFECTED BY RETAIL SALES


EUR/USD



Forex News: As expected the European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged but during the press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that low inflation is still a risk and that monetary policy may be adjusted during the March meeting. The Euro reacted quickly to the comments and the pair tumbled below 1.0800.

[Image: MdJYeVj.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair breached 1.0800 but at the time of writing is bouncing higher. However, we expect another attempt to move below the mentioned level and probably a break based on the dovish stance adopted by ECB President Mario Draghi. A move below 1.0800 would make 1.0710 the first target while a bounce would suggest the pair is headed towards 1.0870 again. However, we favour the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major events, with the most notable one being the release of the German Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. This is a survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers and usually it has a strong impact only if the actual numbers differ a lot from the analysts’ forecast which for today’s release is 53.0. Lower numbers negatively affect the Euro.


GBP/USD

The Pound wasn’t affected by major news yesterday but breached short term support, only to return above it later in the day.

[Image: ITDE1s8.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The fact that price moved below short term support but failed to continue suggests that the strength of the bears is starting to fade away and that we might see a move closer to 1.4230 today. The oscillators are long oversold, thus supporting such a higher move but keep in mind we are still in a strong downtrend and the possibility of a move into 1.4050 shouldn’t be ruled out.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales come out today at 9:30 am GMT and this might be the deciding factor for today’s direction. The anticipated change is -0.1% while the previous was 1.7% and usually a higher than expected number is beneficial for the currency, generating a move up.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR IS BACK ‘WITH A VENGEANCE’, THREATENS SUPPORT


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday the Euro had another encounter with support on the back of worse than expected German Manufacturing data and a dovish speech delivered in Davos by ECB President Mario Draghi. However the week ended before a clear break could be identified.

[Image: g7n0eYc.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair reached the important support at 1.0800 once again and this time we expect it to go through the level and make a run for 1.0710. However, a bounce here would suggest that price will move higher, into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if the economic data released throughout the day meets analysts’ expectations, probably the market impact will be mild and we will have a slow, ranging day.

Fundamental Outlook


At 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate comes out, expected to show a value of 108.5 compared to the previous 108.7. This survey is derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding current economic conditions as well as expectations for the next 6 months and usually has a hefty impact on the Euro, but only if the actual value differs significantly from analysts’ forecast. Higher numbers generally strengthen the Euro. Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT, Mario Draghi will deliver a speech in Frankfurt and as always, caution is recommended during his public appearances.


GBP/USD


Despite a worse than expected value of the British Retail Sales, the Pound pushed higher in the first part of Friday’s trading session and touched resistance. However, later in the day the pair bounced lower on the back of a weakened Pound.

[Image: aFx2tYP.jpg]

Technical Outlook


Friday’s move up was a much needed retracement but as we saw, the bulls couldn’t manage to keep price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; also the level located at 1.4350 is now confirmed as resistance and we can expect it to reject rising prices in the future. On top of that, the Stochastic is now overbought, a condition that wasn’t seen in a long while, so all things point towards another move south, below 1.4230. If this is not the case and price moves above 1.4350, it means we are dealing with a longer retracement to the upside but still not an end of the downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major economic indicator releases scheduled for the Pound today so the pair’s direction will be primarily influenced by the technical aspect
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FOREX NEWS: BIAS REMAINS BEARISH AHEAD OF U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA


EUR/USD



Forex News: Despite a worse than expected value shown yesterday by the German IFO Business Climate (actual 107.3; forecast 108.5), the Euro strengthened and the pair failed to break the support at 1.0800.

[Image: NWbjgO1.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Even if yesterday price bounced at 1.0800, we still maintain our bearish bias and anticipate a break of this level. The upside movement is likely to continue until the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is touched but there the chances of a drop will increase because the level at 1.0870 is in close vicinity of the moving average, offering an even stronger resistance. A move above 1.0870 would make the short term bias bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the release of the US Consumer Confidence survey, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. This survey has a large sample of about 5,000 American households and tries to measure confidence regarding the overall economic situation. If confidence among consumers grows, the retail sales are also likely to follow and that’s why this survey acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending. The forecast is 96.6 and higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD


The Pound showed mixed price action yesterday, moving above and below the Moving Average and bouncing at support. The lack of economic data contributed to the choppy session.

[Image: evnAiZN.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is testing the level at 1.4230 which has now turned into support after an almost perfect bounce higher. However, the Stochastic is moving lower, coming from overbought territory and the pair is under serious downtrend pressure so we expect the mentioned level to be broken today and price to head into the next support, located at 1.4125. First horizontal resistance is located at 1.4350 and will probably reject price in case of a bullish move.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify today before the Treasury Select Committee, at 10:45 am GMT. The topic will be the Financial Stability Report and the Pound is likely to have increased volatility during the speech but the direction will depend on the Governor’s attitude and answers.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. DOLLAR FAILS TO MEET EXPECTATIONS, FOCUS SHIFTS ON FED FOR RATE ANNOUNCEMENT


EUR/USD



Forex News: The Euro bulls continued their run yesterday and the US Dollar was weak most of the day, despite a slightly better than anticipated value shown by the US Consumer Confidence survey. However, resistance was not broken and the pair bounced lower later in the afternoon.

[Image: wfOZABC.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The perfect bounce seen at 1.0870 resistance may be a sign that the sellers are finally preparing for a break of the key support located at 1.0800. The oscillators haven’t reached an extreme condition but are curving downwards, and also price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, supporting the idea of a move south, below 1.0800. A bullish break of 1.0870, followed by a re-test from above would suggest that 1.0945 is the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s an important day for the US Dollar as the Fed will announce today at 7:00 pm GMT their decision regarding the interest rate. A change is not expected to happen (current <0.50%) but the Rate Statement released at the same time is likely to contain information about the pace of future rate increases. If this will be the case, the greenback will probably have a strong reaction.


GBP/USD

The pair dipped below 1.4230 yesterday but recovered quickly and continued higher for the rest of the day, moving above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

[Image: ZTbm2VS.jpg]

Technical Outlook


The pair is showing strong rejection off of the zone at 1.4200 – 1.4230 and is now trading above the 50 period EMA, threatening the resistance at 1.4350. At the moment we have a higher low and this is a first sign that the downtrend may be coming to an end; however, a stronger confirmation would be given by a move above 1.4350. We expect the pair to touch the resistance at 1.4350 today and the way it behaves there will offer hints about future direction.

Fundamental Outlook


The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases today but the pair will be directly affected by the U.S. interest rate announcement and Rate Statement.
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FOREX NEWS: FED KEEPS RATES UNCHANGED, CREATING MIXED IMPACT ON THE CURRENCY MARKET


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was mixed ahead of the Fed Interest Rate, and the pair climbed above resistance. The Fed kept the rate unchanged and highlighted that the pace of future rate hikes will remain data dependent; all this created mixed price action at the time of the release, without substantial moves.

[Image: MPItw47.jpg]

Technical Outlook


Although the Fed Meeting didn’t create a strong impact, the pair is siting above 1.0870 which can be considered support now. The ranging period continues and price lacks clear direction but the Stochastic is approaching its 80 level which suggests an overbought condition and thus increases the chances of a move south. Such a move will be confirmed by a bearish break of 1.0870 and of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we get a first look into German Inflation with the release of the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 1:00 pm GMT. The expected change is 0.4% (previous 0.3%) and higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro.

On the US Dollar side we have the Durable Goods Orders scheduled for release at 1:30 pm GMT. The indicator tracks changes in orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years and under normal circumstances a higher value is beneficial for the greenback. The forecast is a change of -0.6%, while the previous was 0.0%.


GBP/USD

The pair hit resistance yesterday and bounced perfectly off of it but the Fed offered mixed signals regarding future monetary policy and price is now stalling at support.

[Image: pS73GyN.jpg]

Technical Outlook

As seen from yesterday’s price action, resistance is holding and the bears are now struggling to break the support at 1.4230. A break of this level would suggest that the downtrend will continue, headed for 1.4125 and the current overbought condition of the Stochastic is supporting such a move. Our bias is bearish for the day, anticipating a break of support but a lot will depend on the British GDP data released today.

Fundamental Outlook 

The British Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released at 9:30 am GMT and is today’s main event for the Pound. This is the first and most important version out of the three (Preliminary, Second Estimate and Final) and usually has a strong impact on the Pound considering that the GDP is the overall gauge of the economy’s performance. The expected change is 0.5% (previous 0.4%) and higher numbers strengthen the currency.
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FOREX NEWS: EUROZONE INFLATION AND U.S. GDP – 2 POTENTIAL MARKET SHAKERS


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair continued its climb yesterday, mostly fuelled by a better than expected value of the German Consumer Price Index. The U.S. Durable Goods Orders disappointed, contributing to the bullish move.

[Image: cnP5cyQ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is headed towards the resistance at 1.0945 but the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are approaching overbought and this makes us anticipate a drop once the mentioned level is touched. A break of this level would make 1.0980 the next target but the latter is a stronger resistance and probably by then the oscillators will be clearly overbought, increasing substantially the chances of a drop.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is an important day for both the Euro and the US Dollar: at 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Flash Estimate CPI comes out, expected to show a change of 0.4% compared to the previous 0.2%. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation, which has been too low for a relatively long period, thus an increase is likely to trigger Euro strength.

The US Dollar will be affected by the release of the Advance Gross Domestic Product which is the most important version out of the three (Advance, Preliminary and Final). The GDP is an economy’s main measurement of performance and higher numbers usually strengthen the currency; however for today the consensus is a change of 0.8% compared to the previous 2.0%. The release is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

The British Preliminary GDP released yesterday showed a value of 0.5%, better than the previous 0.4% and the Pound reacted by climbing above 1.4350, generating a bullish day.

[Image: 77stQzB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The break above 1.4350 is a major victory for the bulls and if the level turns into support, we are likely to see an extended move towards 1.4475. The pair is also trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this increases the probability of a continuation to the upside but once the oscillators will reach overbought, we expect bearish movement to resume. A quick move below 1.4350 would show the initial bullish break was false and would make 1.4230 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today but the United States GDP will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: CURRENCY WARS: SELLERS MAKE A RUN FOR SUPPORT, BUYERS FIGHT BACK


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday the control belonged to the sellers, who managed to take the pair in close vicinity of the key support at 1.0800. The economic data that came out was close to analysts’ consensus and the impact was limited

[Image: o3kAHjH.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The latest bearish momentum is likely to continue through 1.0800 and if this is true, it will be a major victory for the bears. Lately this level rejected price almost immediately after being touched and it has high importance for medium term price action, acting as the lower barrier of the range the pair has been in. A move outside would make the short term bias bearish and would open the door for a touch of 1.0710 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s highlight is the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector who are asked to give their opinions on business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Higher values trigger US Dollar strength and today’s forecast is 48.6 while the previous was 48.2.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar erased all losses occurred during the week and even threatened support Friday but still the weekly session ended with a small bounce higher.

[Image: 3kc0whU.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the pair climbed above the resistance at 1.4350, this high price couldn’t be sustained and a move lower followed, possibly showing that the downtrend is ready to resume. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken to the downside and today we expect a move into 1.4125. The direction will also be influenced by the economic data scheduled for release so if the impact will be slim, we might see sideways price action, above and below 1.4230.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the U.S., the United Kingdom also releases manufacturing data today, in the form of the Manufacturing PMI. The indicator comes out at 9:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 51.8. Higher numbers strengthen the Pound but the impact is higher if the actual figure shows a hefty difference compared to the forecast.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR’S REIGN FALTERED BY DISAPPOINTING U.S. DATA


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair had a bullish session yesterday after the bears failed to continue Friday’s downside momentum. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI disappointed, showing a value of 48.2, slightly below analysts’ expectations.

[Image: tCOlS5V.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bounce higher in close vicinity of the key support at 1.0800 shows that the ranging period is still not over and that we may see another move close to 1.0945 resistance. The level at 1.0870 is starting to lose its strength and cannot be considered at the moment support although the pair is trading above it and almost the same is true for the 50 period Exponential Moving Average that is moving sideways. We expect choppy price action until a clear breakout occurs and our bias is neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Unemployment Change is released today at 8:55 am GMT and expected to show a change of -7K compared to the previous -14K. The indicator is not especially important but can strengthen the Euro if lower than expected numbers are posted because less unemployed people shows a thriving economy.


GBP/USD

The Pound benefited from a better than expected Manufacturing PMI while the greenback suffered from a lower value of the indicator with the same name and thus the first day of the week was controlled by the bulls.

[Image: r7ZKBdD.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is testing the resistance at 1.4350 again but this may very well be the start of a ranging period if volatility drops near this zone. Also, the bears are starting to lose their grip on the pair and the downtrend is now severely weakened. A move above 1.4350 followed by a re-test from above and a bounce would suggest that we will see the pair touch 1.4475 in the near future.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI comes out, showing the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers about the business conditions in the construction sector. The forecast is 57.6 and usually higher numbers strengthen the Pound because the survey also acts as a leading indicator of economic health.
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FOREX NEWS: FIRST LOOK AT U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA MAY REVEAL UNDERLYING US DOLLAR STRENGTH


EUR/USD



Forex News: The European economic data released yesterday gave the Euro a boost and the pair continued to climb towards resistance, generating another bullish day.

[Image: 0DuqQN6.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair travels from support to resistance and vice-versa lately so if this behaviour continues, we are likely to see a reversal when the zone around 1.0945 is touched. A move into 1.0980 would probably make both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index overbought, a fact that would increase the chances of a bounce lower. Today’s price direction will be affected by the U.S. employment data, but the candles are already showing signs of rejection so we may see bearish price action even if the data is neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, scheduled at 1:15 pm GMT. This report is put together by a privately owned company and doesn’t have the huge impact of the Non-Farm Payrolls that come out 2 days later, but nonetheless it offers a first look into United States employment and can create strong volatility. Usually, higher numbers than the forecast 193K are beneficial for the US Dollar and take the pair lower.


GBP/USD

The pair had a mixed session yesterday as the British Construction PMI disappointed, weakening the Pound. However, the bears lacked the strength to take price below support and a bounce higher followed.

[Image: 2Fc8eBw.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced at 1.4350 as showed by a four hour candle with a long wick, thus now we can consider this level support. A move below it should be treated like a break of support and should be only traded on the re-test but our short term bias is bullish for a touch of 1.4475. However, the upside movement should be limited by the overbought condition of the Stochastic. Both the Pound and the US Dollar will be affected by economic indicators today so the technical side will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI is released at 9:30 am GMT, showing the opinions of purchasing managers from the services sector about business conditions in the said sector and acting as a leading indicator of economic health. The survey has a medium impact on the Pound but nonetheless, a higher value than the forecast 55.4 can strengthen the Pound.
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