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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: EURO PREPARES FOR RETRACEMENTS, US DOLLAR STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY FOMC MINUTES


EUR/USD



Forex News: The U.S. Consumer Price Index matched analysts’ expectations and the release didn’t have the anticipated strong impact on price action. However, the pair did reach the projected target zone around 1.0660.

[Image: 9S7iwZD.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the bears managed to drive the pair into a new low and threatened 1.0660 support, the momentum seems to fade away and we expect a bounce higher before a new attempt to break this support will be made. The Stochastic has entered oversold and the Relative Strength Index is showing bullish divergence (price is making a lower low but the oscillator is only making a higher low) and these signs support our short term bullish bias. Of course a clean break of 1.0660 would invalidate such a scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

The Fed will release today at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes which contain details of their latest meeting and also insights into the reasons that determined them to keep the interest rate unchanged. More importantly, the Minutes can contain hints about whether we will see or not a rate increase later this year. Usually the impact is strong on the greenback so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The British CPI posted the value that was anticipated by the majority of analysts but the CORE version of the indicator showed a slight increase and this fact triggered upside movement after an early morning drop.

[Image: MwqLXlz.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved below 1.5200 support but the re-test we talked about a day before wasn’t successful so the break proved to be a false one. Now price is once again between 1.5200 and 1.5250 and the direction is not clear but the last four hour candle shows a long upper wick and this is a sign of rejection (however, not a very strong one). The pair remains in ranging mode until support or resistance is broken and then successfully re-tested.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic announcements today so price direction will be influenced by the technical aspect and of course, by the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
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FOREX NEWS: PRESSURE MOUNTS, BREAKOUTS EXPECTED AS FOMC MINUTES GIVE MIXED SIGNALS


EUR/USD



Forex News: Ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes the pair started to move to the upside but the document contained mixed signals, with some Fed members seeing a December rate hike still on the table and others suggesting that an increase might bring risks to the economy.

[Image: xWAoWst.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price action at the time of the Minutes’ release was choppy and irregular, mostly because the market had difficulties interpreting the mixed signals given by the document. No substantial advances were made and price is still hovering close to 1.0660, with the Stochastic moving up and exiting oversold, so upside action is a distinct possibility but it all depends on how the market will interpret the Minutes and their impact.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, offering insights into the health of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia district. The impact varies for each release but usually higher numbers than the forecast 0.1 (previous -4.5) will strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

For the most part of yesterday the pair continued to move erratically and to reverse all moves. The FOMC Minutes didn’t manage to break the range but some bullish action was seen.

[Image: cH92jTK.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is still trading between 1.5200 support and 1.5250 resistance, so even if the latest impulse is bullish, we cannot expect stronger movement until resistance is broken and re-tested from above. If price shows signs of rejection around 1.5250, we expect a bounce that will take it back into 1.5200.

Fundamental Outlook

A high impact indicator is released today: the British Retail Sales. The scheduled time is 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is -0.4%, a huge drop from the previous 1.9%. Sales made at retail levels represent a major part of the entire economic activity so a higher than expected change will likely strengthen the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR LOSES GROUND, STRUGGLES TO REGAIN CONTROL


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair moved higher yesterday, showing that the market interpreted the FOMC Minutes as dovish and that most traders now have a slightly bullish bias.

[Image: 2MZdZ0t.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current move up is a retracement for the overall downtrend so we expect the pair to continue its movement south once the pullback is complete. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first barrier in front of rising price but both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are showing bullish momentum so we may see a move into 1.0790 before the bearish movement can resume.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major economic releases today but ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt. The scheduled time is 8:00 am GMT and his attitude could very well decide the euro direction for the entire day, especially if he will talk about ECB’s monetary policy.


GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales showed a disappointing value of -0.6% (forecast -0.4%) and the Pound weakened but only briefly and soon after the bulls regained control of the pair.

[Image: fzTHia2.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5250 was broken and then successfully re-tested from above so we can assume we are dealing with a true break and probably moves higher will be next. Short term support sits now at 1.5250, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which is starting to curve upwards. The first bullish target is represented by 1.5330 and we expect retracements lower once it is touched, mostly because both oscillators will probably be oversold at the time.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Public Sector Net Borrowing is released at 9:30 am GMT and is the only notable indicator of the day but the impact is often overlooked. The expected value is 5.5B (previous 8.6B) and usually, lower numbers are beneficial for the currency.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR BACK IN ACTION, THREATENING KEY SUPPORT


EUR/USD



Forex News: The US Dollar regained control over the Euro during Friday’s trading session on the back of hawkish comments made by New York Fed President Dudley who suggested that positive economic data may trigger a rate hike “relatively soon”.

[Image: HfuUZ5E.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair descended below 1.0660 but this cannot be considered a true break until price puts some distance between it and the mentioned level. It has to be noted that on a Daily chart the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are both very close to oversold and this situation has been going on for a relatively long while, so we can expect stronger moves to the upside. However, the overall direction is down and bullish moves could be considered good opportunities to sell; the first resistance is the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:00 am GMT the French Flash Manufacturing PMI comes out, expected to show a figure of 50.7 and half an hour later the indicator with the same name but for the German economy is released, with a forecast value of 52.2. These surveys act as leading indicators of economic health and higher numbers usually strengthen the euro.

The Eurogroup Meetings take place today but are closed to the press; some volatility can be created if information about the discussions leaks to journalists. Once the meetings are concluded, a formal statement is released.


GBP/USD

The effects of William Dudley’s comments were better seen on the Pound-Dollar pair as the bears managed to break support Friday and to generate strong downside action.

[Image: dtfY2AT.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After the almost perfect bounce at 1.5330 resistance, the pair traveled through 1.5250 and 1.5200, heading for the minor support at 1.5155. The oscillators are moving down, with good momentum and without being oversold so we expect the mentioned level to be touched today. As an alternate scenario, we might get a slow day, with price moving above and below 1.5200, without clear direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Pound is not affected by major economic announcements but British representatives will participate in the Eurogroup Meetings so volatility may be present.
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FOREX NEWS: BREAKOUTS AHEAD, FUELLED BY A HEAVY ECONOMIC CALENDAR


EUR/USD



Forex News: The euro-dollar established a new low early in the morning and then the bulls managed to bring the pair higher on the back of a better than expected value of the German Flash Manufacturing PMI so yesterday’s movement was mixed, without substantial moves.

[Image: V8wX0cd.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Late in the afternoon the pair touched the level at 1.0660 and bounced lower, turning it into short term resistance. Probably during today’s trading session we will see another attempt to move above 1.0660 and the way price behaves near the level will determine the next move. The oscillators on a Daily chart are still oversold, increasing the chances of a move north but we are still in a downtrend and it’s likely to see a move into 1.0500 soon.

Fundamental Outlook

Three important events are scheduled for today: at 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey comes out, expected to show 108.3 (higher values are beneficial for the euro) and later, at 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. Prelim Gross Domestic Product is released, showing the overall performance of the American economy. The forecast annualized change is 2.0% (previous 1.5%) and higher values usually strengthen the US Dollar, bringing the pair lower.

The final announcement of the day is the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to show 99.3 (previous 97.6). Because consumer confidence is tightly correlated with consumer spending, higher numbers could strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair had a difficult to trade session yesterday, characterized by a sharp reversal and movement above and below resistance.

[Image: PB1H2Tm.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The minor resistance at 1.5155 wasn’t very important yesterday as price moved above and below it without bouncing on it. However, the last four hour candle shows a huge wick in its upper part and this is a clear sign of rejection, meaning that we will probably see a touch of 1.5100 today. Bullish movement will encounter resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and at 1.5200.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the Inflation Report Hearings take place; BoE Governor Mark Carney and members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify on economic outlook and inflation before the Treasury Committee of the Parliament. The Pound will be most likely affected by these talks so caution is recommended until the hearings have concluded.
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FOREX NEWS: MIXED ACTION AHEAD OF U.S. DURABLE GOODS, NEW HOME SALES


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair climbed yesterday when the German IFO survey posted a figure that surpassed analysts’ expectations, but a better than expected value of the American GDP brought the pair lower so overall we had a day driven by the economic releases.

[Image: IlQIrv4.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.0660 was briefly breached yesterday but the pair is showing rejection now and this makes our bias bearish for a touch of 1.0500 support. To the upside, 1.0660 remains good resistance, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if price will break these forms of resistance, turning them into support, we are likely to see a move into 1.0790.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a change of 1.6%, while the previous was -1.2%. These are goods with a life expectancy of at least three years and are usually more expensive so a higher demand for such goods suggests a thriving economy, thus higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the US New Home Sales come out, with a forecast of 500K, higher than the previous 468K. Since the housing market is very important for the U.S. economy, higher than expected values are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Inflation Report Hearings were overall dovish and the Pound suffered the effects yesterday, weakening and heading significantly lower. 

[Image: wOkuoui.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair touched 1.5155 again and bounced lower, confirming the level as resistance. During yesterday’s sell off, the pair broke the support at 1.5100 and is now headed towards the next support, located at 1.5030. Both the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are oversold, which is an early warning that a bullish pullback will soon happen; if this is the case, the pair can find resistance at 1.5100.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so the pair’s direction will be mainly affected by the US releases and by the technical side of the market.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. BANKS CLOSE THEIR DOORS FOR THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. US DOLLAR MOVES ERRATICALLY


EUR/USD



Forex News: ECB Vice President Constancio made dovish remarks yesterday about downside risks to economic growth and potentially further action from the ECB at their 4th of December meeting; the euro collapsed through 1.0660 as a result.

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Technical Outlook

After a brief move above 1.0660 the pair dropped and we saw the strongest movement of the latest period. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average offered good resistance and now the downtrend is resumed with both oscillators moving downwards, without being oversold. The next target is 1.0500 but today the United States celebrate Thanksgiving so the market is likely to suffer from low liquidity, irregular volatility and possibly choppy movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurozone didn’t schedule major news releases and banks in the United States are closed, celebrating Thanksgiving Day. Caution is recommended, for the reasons outlined above.


GBP/USD

The pound-dollar moved without clear direction yesterday, above and below 1.5100, without being much affected by the US economic data that came out during the day.

[Image: wMAjY8c.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price breached 1.5100 to the upside but bounced lower soon afterwards and now the pair is trading below this level, making us anticipate a touch of 1.5030. However, we have to note that the oscillators are exiting oversold areas and on top of that, the bearish momentum seems to be fading. These factors favour a move to the upside, possibly close to 1.5155 but the market signals are mixed and caution is recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases for today but Thanksgiving will affect the US Dollar and consequently the pair’s movement.
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FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR BULLS RESUME ACTIVITY, VOLATILITY PICKS UP AFTER THANKSGIVING DAY


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the United States celebrated Thanksgiving Day and as expected, the euro-dollar pair didn’t make significant advances to either side. Also, the economic calendar didn’t contain major news releases, contributing to the slow action.

[Image: X2Kh7CZ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s sideways price action doesn’t change our bearish bias and we are still anticipating a move into 1.0500 support. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the level at 1.0660 create a confluence zone which can offer strong resistance if touched from below but on the other hand, a break of this zone would be a sign that the bulls are ready to erase some of the losses and to create a stronger retracement to the upside.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the release of the Spanish Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 8:00 am GMT and expected to show a change of -0.5% (previous -0.7%). Spanish inflation is important for the Eurozone but we don’t expect to see strong movement at the release time unless the actual figure differs a lot from analysts’ expectations.


GBP/USD

The pair continued to reverse all impulses and had another day when it travelled above and below 1.5100, without establishing a clear direction.

[Image: DQCp0FP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is confined inside a triangle and before we can see any directional movement, this pattern needs to be broken. Once that happens, the first bullish target is 1.5155 and to the downside, 1.5030 remains key support. If the pair will reach either the bullish or the bearish target, we expect it to bounce or stop for a while. Direction will be affected today by the economic data scheduled for release.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the United Kingdom releases the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product which is not anticipated to change from the previous 0.5%. The Preliminary version of the GDP (already released) is the most important, but today’s release can bring strong movement as well, with higher values being beneficial for the Pound.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: A BUSIER MONDAY THAN USUAL: GERMAN INFLATION, U.S. HOUSING DATA AHEAD


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday was a pretty slow day, with some bearish price action but the previous low wasn’t broken and no other major advances were made.

[Image: Qu4S3Xt.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price action is mostly sideways and the pair is contracting between 1.0660 and 1.0570 which is now minor support. Usually a contraction period is followed by a breakout and because today Germany releases important economic data, we expect such a breakout to occur, with the direction depending on the actual numbers posted. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first area of resistance and if broken, the bullish movement is likely to continue for the rest of the day.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 7:00 am GMT the German Retail Sales are released, expected to show a change of 0.3% compared with the previous 0.0%. Because sales made at retail levels represent a major part of the entire economic activity, higher numbers are beneficial for the German economy and thus for the euro. Later in the day, at 1:00 pm GMT, the German Preliminary CPI comes out, with an anticipated value of 0.1% (previous 0.0%); inflation growth could translate in a stronger euro, so look for bullish moves if the forecast comes true or if higher numbers are posted.

On the US Dollar side we have the Pending Home Sales, released at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to show a 1.6% increase (previous -2.3%). The indicator has medium impact but higher values are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair also had a bearish Friday, breaking below a bullish trend line and touching support. The British GDP matched analysts’ expectations so the release didn’t have a strong impact.

[Image: 5ODfkSb.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We expect the pair to bounce higher at 1.5030 support creating a bullish retracement. The first target of this pullback is the recently broken bullish trend line, followed by the resistance at 1.5100. If 1.5030 support is broken to the downside, the next barrier is represented by 1.4970. The oscillators are still moving downwards, favouring an extended move south but the economic calendar is light today so it’s possible to see slow movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead is slow for British economic announcements so the pair’s direction will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect and by the U.S. housing data.
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FOREX NEWS: CRAWLING ALONG SUPPORT. BREAKOUTS ANTICIPATED


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair had an incredibly slow day, despite worse than expected German Retail Sales which normally would weaken the euro. The support was not broken and price moved mostly sideways.

[Image: iEiUZCi.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is crawling on 1.0570 support and totally lacks momentum but this behaviour will most likely come to an end today. A breakout and a move outside the range defined by 1.0570 and 1.0660 are expected but the direction of this breakout is difficult to anticipate considering how the pair has been moving lately, so look for a re-test of the broken level and keep in mind that false breaks can occur.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States release the Manufacturing PMI today at 3:00 pm GMT and this is the only potential market mover of the day for the dollar. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health but as always the impact will be stronger if the actual number differs from analysts’ forecast (which is 50.6), with higher values strengthening the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair managed to break 1.5030 support and touched 1.5000 but soon retraced higher, creating a whipsaw and overall a difficult trading session.

[Image: KgfdZbk.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bears failed to capitalize on the break of support and on top of that, a bounce is visible at 1.5000 psychological support. The Stochastic is oversold starting to curve upwards and the Relative Strength Index is showing bullish divergence (oscillator makes higher lows while price prints lower lows). All these factors make us anticipate a move upwards, into 1.5100 resistance. As an alternate scenario, a break of 1.5000 will open the door for a touch of 1.4970.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Financial Stability Report, along with the results of the Bank Stress Tests. Two hours later, at 9:00 am GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, discussing the results of the Stress Tests and the Stability Report. This will probably be the most volatile time of the day, with strong moves and possibly sharp turns.

At 9:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, expected to show a value of 53.7. Higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound but this release is likely to be eclipsed by Mark Carney’s press conference mentioned earlier.
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