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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: FIRST LOOK AT U.S. EMPLOYMENT – A STEP CLOSER TO A RATE DECISION


EUR/USD



Forex News: For almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session the pair descended so the bears regained control over short term price action and we expect the downside to continue.

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Technical Outlook

The bearish divergence we talked about a day earlier proved a reliable sign for a drop and now the pair is trading well below 1.1000, headed towards 1.0900. The oscillators are not oversold and the pair is moving with good speed so a stronger retracement is likely to happen around 1.0900. A sudden reversal of direction will probably find resistance near 1.1000.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Frankfurt at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision, then later in the day at 1:15 pm GMT we will take a first look at U.S. employment with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This is a report issued by a privately owned company and doesn’t have the strong impact of the government data which comes out Friday but numbers above the anticipated 183K usually have a positive impact on the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, on the topic of bank regulation. The impact on the greenback can be strong so caution is recommended, as always when heads of central banks speak publicly.


GBP/USD

The British Construction PMI came out very close to analysts’ consensus and the impact was muted but the pair traveled south for the most part of yesterday, with some bullish price action in the afternoon.

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Technical Outlook

The pair moved below 1.5415, piercing through the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the previously broken trend line but signs of rejection are present as the last four hour candle has a very small body and a long wick. If during the day the low of the last candle is broken, we expect a touch of 1.5330, otherwise we will most likely see a choppy trading day.

Fundamental Outlook

The last British PMI in the series is released today at 9:30 am GMT: the Services PMI. This survey gauges the optimism of purchasing managers regarding the services sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so higher numbers than the anticipated 54.6 will most likely strengthen the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: BIG DAY FOR THE POUND: BOE INTEREST RATE AND INFLATION REPORT


EUR/USD



Forex News: The euro-dollar pair continued its descent yesterday and was not much affected by the economic releases or by the speeches of the two heads of central banks, Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi.

[Image: CGGnCxN.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bears scored an important victory yesterday by breaking 1.0900 support and now the pair is headed towards 1.0820. We anticipate a touch and later a break of this level but before that can happen, the pair is likely to stall or even retrace higher, with 1.0900 zone being a good place for downside movement to resume. The oscillators are entering oversold, warning about a potential bounce higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurozone Retail Sales are released at 10:00 am GMT and expected to show an increase of 3.0% from the previous 2.3% (annualized numbers). Such a climb would suggest that economic activity is increasing and would be beneficial for the euro.


GBP/USD

The British Services PMI showed a value of 54.9 yesterday, close to analysts’ estimation of 54.6 and the Pound didn’t react strongly; the later part of the day was controlled by the bears who managed to take price below support.

[Image: 9qaStUx.jpg]

Technical Outlook

During the last couple of days, price created minor support at 1.5360 and this will be the first barrier that needs to be broken en route to 1.5330. The pair is now trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below resistance, with the oscillators moving downwards, without being oversold so the bearish momentum is likely to continue.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will release the Inflation Report which contains a 2-year outlook for economic growth and inflation. At the same time the BOE will announce the interest rate (no change anticipated from the current 0.50%) and a breakdown of the members’ rate votes. Later at 12:45 pm GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the Inflation Report; strong moves are possible during these events and caution is recommended throughout the day.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA AHEAD. BRACE FOR IMPACT!


EUR/USD



Forex News: The European Retail Sales numbers came out worse than anticipated, creating some euro weakness but overall yesterday’s trading session lacked strong movement and one-sided control.

[Image: X7y3sVQ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair climbed in very close vicinity of 1.0900 which will probably turn into resistance now. If this is the case, we expect price to drop into 1.0820 and to break it if the U.S. employment data will show that more jobs than anticipated were created during the previous month. Please note that both oscillators are clearly oversold and starting to move upwards, increasing the chances of a bullish move; however, the technical aspect will be overshadowed by the NFP release.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are released and a huge impact is expected, especially because the Fed have made it clear that a rate hike is tightly correlated with jobs and inflation. It is safe to assume that a better than expected value of today’s release will spur speculation about a December rate hike and will strengthen the US Dollar. The forecast is for 179K new jobs, better than the previous 142K.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged as anticipated but the Inflation Report revealed they have lowered inflation and economic growth expectations. The Pound reacted swiftly yesterday and dropped for more than 150 pips.

[Image: Xm3f7A9.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bears took price below support and have regained control over the pair but the level of 1.5250 is still not decisively broken and will probably offer some support. Also, a big move is often followed by a pullback so we are likely to see at least a brief period of stagnation before the downside can resume. The U.S. jobs data released today will be a deciding factor for the pair’s direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers are released at 9:30 am GMT, with an expected change of 0.4% (previous 0.5%) and later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, NIESR will release an estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product. The previous value was 0.5% and values above it usually strengthen the Pound; the same is true for the Manufacturing Production numbers but we expect the US jobs data to be the day’s highlight.
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FOREX NEWS: THE “RUBBER BAND” EFFECT MAY BRING LIMITED UPSIDE ACTION


EUR/USD



Forex News: The U.S. Non-Farm Employment report surprised everyone in the market by posting a huge and unexpected value of 271K while the forecast was 181K. The US Dollar strengthened swiftly and the pair dropped for more than 170 pips.

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Technical Outlook

The trend is bearish, no doubt, but retracements higher are due, mostly because a strong move often generates a rubber band effect and price pulls back a little because it’s too extended. The first support is located at 1.0660 but probably the pair will pull back to 1.0820 before it can head into this level. The Relative Strength Index has been moving above and below its lower level without touching the upper boundary for quite a long while and now it is oversold, increasing the chances of moves north.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings take place today, attended by finance ministers and other personalities from the Euro zone. The meetings are usually closed to the press but sometimes participants speak to journalists during the day and this can create some volatility on euro-related pairs.


GBP/USD

The greenback strengthened against the Pound as well Friday, on the back of the surprisingly better than anticipated NFP report and the pair continued the downside momentum started Thursday.

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Technical Outlook

The overall picture is obviously bearish, with the pair trading below key levels but both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are deep in oversold territory and this calls for a retracement higher or at least a period of sideways movement. The first barrier (and a good place for downside movement to resume) is the recently broken support at 1.5100, which can turn into resistance if price will bounce off of it.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic announcements for today but British representatives will participate in the Eurogroup Meetings mentioned earlier and this could affect the Pound to some extent.
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FOREX NEWS: DEEP OVERSOLD STILL CALLS FOR FURTHER UPSIDE?


EUR/USD



Forex News: Overall we had a slow session yesterday, with limited upside retracements and another move south later in the afternoon. The economic calendar was light, contributing to the slow movement.

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Technical Outlook

The small retracement which we anticipated seems to be complete now and this suggests that the next stop is 1.0660 support zone. The oscillators are still trading close to their oversold levels but this is normal in a downtrend and doesn’t necessarily mean that a reversal is coming. In the eventuality that price starts to move up, the first potential resistance is located at 1.0820.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light today, with the only important event being the ECOFIN Meetings, attended by Finance Ministers from the EU member states. The impact of the meeting on the currency market differs, depending on the matters discussed but caution is recommended nonetheless.


GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher and encountered resistance that stopped the upwards momentum but overall we had a slow session compared to the way last week ended.

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Technical Outlook

Price breached the resistance at 1.5100 and soon rejected was seen, but the upside move can still continue above this level. The oscillators are trying to come out of deep oversold territory so a clear break of 1.5100 is very possible; if this scenario occurs, we are likely to see further upside movement but the extent should be limited.

Fundamental Outlook

The technical aspect will be the main focus today as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news or economic indicator releases.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR REGAINS CONTROL AGAINST EURO, POUND STILL PLAYS HARD TO GET


EUR/USD



Forex News: The US Dollar started to regain its control over the euro as yesterday we saw a new low and a move closer to support. The day lacked major economic data releases and most of the session was controlled by the bears.

[Image: 7r8jQEV.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is likely to hit 1.0660 support and once this happens, we expect a struggle for control between buyers and sellers. The Relative Strength Index is again entering oversold so we may see a move higher after the touch of 1.0660, with the first potential resistance being 1.0790. ECB President Mario Draghi speaks today and the euro is likely to have a strong reaction.

Fundamental Outlook

U.S. banks are closed today in observance of Veterans Day, so the New York session is susceptible to irregular volatility and possibly choppy movement. At 1:15 pm GMT, ECB President Mari Draghi will deliver a speech at Bank of England's Open Forum 2015. As always, his public speeches should be treated as potential market movers and caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

During the first part of yesterday’s trading session the Pound inched higher against the US Dollar but the pair soon showed signs of rejection; overall neither buyers nor sellers made significant advances.

[Image: W3ZbUYs.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price has moved above 1.5100 but the long wick of the last four-hour candle shows clear rejection and warns that a move lower is likely to occur. If the bears can indeed take the pair below 1.5100, the first target is represented by the minor support created around 1.5030. Also keep in mind that 1.5000 is strong psychological support and is likely to stop the pair if a stronger drop occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we get a look into British unemployment with the release of the Claimant Count Change scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The expected number is 1.6K (previous 4.6K) and usually higher values are detrimental for the Pound because the economy is contracting when more people are unemployed.
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FOREX NEWS: ECB PRESIDENT DRAGHI’S “DOUBLE TROUBLE” APPEARANCE


EUR/USD



Forex News: The speech of ECB President Mario Draghi didn’t trigger strong moves yesterday and overall the entire session lacked strong movement. The economic calendar was light, contributing to the choppy price action.

[Image: 4BCFyYX.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We still anticipate a move into 1.0660 which is likely to occur today but neither side seems to be interested to make a decisive move. The oscillators offer mixed signals, without clear direction so we must wait for an exit from this congestion zone. The levels to watch remain 1.0660 as support and 1.0790 as first resistance, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

ECB President Mario Draghi will speak twice today: the first appearance is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT when he will testify on monetary policy before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. The second speech is scheduled at 10:30 am GMT and this time the President will talk about his role as Chairman of the European Systemic Risk Board, at the European Parliament. These two speeches will probably create more movement than what we’ve seen yesterday but the impact cannot be anticipated so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

Despite a worse than expected number for the British Claimant Count Change, the Pound rallied higher yesterday and tested the resistance 1.5200, creating another bullish day.

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Technical Outlook

The bulls are struggling to break the important level at 1.5200 but the medium term direction is down and the Stochastic has entered overbought. This makes us believe that another leg of the recent downtrend will begin and that price will bounce lower from here, aiming for 1.5100. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity, increasing the chances of a bounce lower, but a move above 1.5200 will make 1.5250 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic data releases but the US Dollar (and obviously the pair) will be influenced by the speech of Fed Chair Janet Yellen scheduled at 2:30 pm GMT in Washington DC. She will open the Conference on Monetary Policy Implementation in the Post-Crisis Period but she will not answer audience questions so the impact might be muted; however, caution is recommended.
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FOREX NEWS: CURRENCIES IN TURMOIL AS EUROPEAN AND U.S. MONETARY POLICIES DIVERGE


EUR/USD



Forex News: ECB President Mario Draghi emphasised during yesterday’s appearances that the bank may extend the stimulus program and that inflation downside risks are still present, weakening the euro as a result. However, later in the day some Fed officials voiced their concerns about U.S. inflation and the greenback gave back all the gains.

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Technical Outlook

Overall yesterday’s trading session was characterized by whipsaws and sharp reversals on the lower time frames but we can now notice rejection off of 1.0790 resistance. The last four hour candle shows a long wick formed when the bulls breached resistance but lacked the strength to close above it. Another attempt to close above 1.0790 will be probably made today and a failure will suggest that price will finally head into 1.0660. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also in close vicinity of resistance, creating a confluence zone which will be more difficult to break.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Preliminary CPI is released at 7:00 am GMT, expected to show a 0.3% change compared to the previous 0.4%. This is the main gauge of German inflation, which is a big part of overall European inflation, so higher values are beneficial for the euro.

At 1:30 pm GMT the US Retail Sales come out, expected to show an increase of 0.3% (previous 0.1%). Since sales made at retail levels represent an important part of the entire economic activity and the Fed is on the verge of increasing rates, a higher value will probably spur once again speculation about a hike and thus, will strengthen the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey which is expected to increase to 91.3 from last month’s 90.0; because consumer sentiment is closely correlated with consumer spending, a higher value for this survey will likely strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair also had a tumultuous trading session yesterday, moving above and below 1.5200 but failed to establish a clear direction.

[Image: t1wLvsb.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After moving very close to 1.5250 the pair bounced lower and is now trading below 1.5200 but the direction is not clear. The bulls have been very active lately so we may see another attempt to touch and possibly break 1.5250 but note the overbought condition of the Stochastic which has now crossed downwards and is moving below its 70 level. This could generate some bearish pressure but it shouldn’t be considered a sell signal on its own.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic data announcements today but the pair will be directly affected by the U.S. events mentioned above.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: TECHNICAL POINTS TO A DROP, FUNDAMENTAL WILL DECIDE


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday’s price movement was influenced by the economic releases as the Euro was weakened by lower inflation values and the US Dollar was negatively affected by worse than expected Retail Sales numbers.

[Image: o1lgMsp.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance zone created between 1.0790 and 1.0820 rejected price lower and bearish divergence is present on both oscillators (price is making a lower high and the oscillators are showing higher highs). This suggests that a move lower is likely to happen today or in the near future but the first barrier that needs to be broken is the bullish trend line seen on the chart above, followed by 1.0660.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Final version of the European CPI comes out, expected to show no change from the previous 0.0%. This is the least important version because the German Prelim CPI and European Flash Estimate are already released, but a value which differs from analysts’ expectations can trigger strong moves, with higher numbers being beneficial for the Euro.

ECB President Mari Draghi will deliver a speech at 10:15 am GMT, in Madrid, at the European Roundtable of Industrialists Plenary Session. The impact is not known but a hawkish attitude will strengthen the Euro and the opposite applies for a dovish stance.


GBP/USD

The pair made an attempt to break the congestion zone by moving above resistance but the impulse faded and turned into a move lower which was also reversed soon after. The entire Friday session was characterized by irregular price behaviour.

[Image: kK6oZ0V.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is completely flat and price is moving sideways, trapped in a horizontal channel. Until the pair breaks out of this congestion zone, we can expect further choppiness and sharp reversals on the lower tine frames. The levels to watch are 1.5200 as support and 1.5250 as resistance and a breakout should be confirmed by a re-test of the respective level. 

Fundamental Outlook

There are no events on the British calendar today so the pair will be primarily influenced by the technical side of the market.
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FOREX NEWS: BRITISH AND U.S. INFLATION DATA GUARANTEE A VOLATILE TRADING DAY


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was slow and rather choppy, with the pair descending close to the previous low even if the European Final CPI showed a better value than analysts’ expected.

[Image: Tq1WySq.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bullish trend line we mentioned a day earlier is now broken and the bears seem to gather up strength so we expect a touch and a consequent break of 1.0660 support. However, there is not a lot of strong movement and both bears and bulls seem undecided so if the pair will touch 1.0660 today, we expect it to bounce higher on the first attempt to break it; this can all change, depending on US inflation data.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is released today at 10:00 am GMT and expected to show a value of 6.7 compared to the previous 1.9. Higher readings are beneficial for the Euro but the day’s main event will be the release of the U.S. Consumer Price index, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and inflation plays a major role in Fed’s decision to raise the interest rate or to keep it unchanged. Higher values than the forecast 0.2% (previous -0.2%) will most likely strengthen the US Dollar. Pay attention to the CORE version of the indicator (excludes food and energy), released at the same time.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar pair also had a slow and choppy session, with price grinding below the lower boundary of the horizontal channel. Even if this barrier was broken, we cannot deem the move a breakout.

[Image: zFGYLPU.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Before we can consider 1.5200 support broken, we have to see a move below it, followed by a successful re-test. Until this scenario occurs, the market is still ranging and in indecision mode. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, confirming the pair doesn’t have clear direction but all this can change today when British inflation data comes out.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Consumer Price Index is released. Since this is the most important gauge of overall inflation, its outcome usually has a strong impact on the Pound and a higher change than the forecast -0.1% (previous -0.1%) can positively impact the Pound.
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