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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: SELLERS STRUGGLE FOR CONTROL, BUYERS STILL RESILIENT


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair retraced higher yesterday after a bounce at support but resistance also proved too hard to break and sent price lower again. The U.S. Building Permits were fewer than anticipated but still close to analysts’ expectations so the impact was muted.

[Image: rUeGmez.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Following an oversold condition of the Stochastic and an encounter with 1.1320 support, the pair moved north but the climb was reversed at 1.1380 resistance. We anticipate another move into 1.1320 and a break of this area, heading towards 1.1280 but for this to happen, the bullish trend line seen on the chart above must be broken. On the other hand, a move above 1.1380 followed by a re-test from above, would suggest that 1.1450 is the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major announcements for both the Euro and the US Dollar so traders will focus mainly on the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Mark Carney’s testimony about the Bank of England Bill did not create strong movement yesterday and the pair ranged for most of the day, having another encounter with 1.5500 resistance.

[Image: By9xMux.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5500 was touched again but no bullish break occurred so our view remains mostly unchanged, anticipating a bearish bounce and a move closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A bullish break of 1.5500 should be followed by a re-test from above, in order to confirm we are dealing with a real breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

At 5:00 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak at the Cairncross Memorial Lecture, in Oxford. We don’t expect strong movement but caution is recommended nonetheless.
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FOREX NEWS: VAGUENESS AHEAD OF ECB PRESS CONFERENCE, BRITISH RETAIL SALES


EUR/USD



Forex News: Most of yesterday’s trading session was ranging, with the pair confined between resistance and a bullish trend line. The lack of major announcements contributed to the slow movement.

[Image: qFuaWN0.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.1380 was almost touched yesterday and the pair bounced lower, but the bullish trend line was not broken so the pair is still moving without clear direction. Also, the oscillators are not in extreme territory so they don’t offer strong clues and this means we will probably have to wait for a technical level (1.1380 or the trend line) to be broken before we will see a more decisive move.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Central Bank will announce at 11:45 am GMT the interest rate and although no change is expected (current 0.05%), the event is likely to generate strong moves. At 12:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold the usual press conference that accompanies the rate announcement and this is another reason for increased volatility. Journalists will ask questions regarding the ECB monetary policy and the answers given by Mario Draghi usually have a very strong impact on the pair’s short to medium term movement.


GBP/USD

The pair slowly descended, coming closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but then a climb followed and overall we had a choppy trading session, without major breakouts.

[Image: 8hMPJOH.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After the near bounce at the 50 EMA, the pair seems to be headed once again towards the resistance at 1.5500. If this potential encounter with resistance doesn’t result in a clean break, the chances of a drop will increase substantially. A major role in today’s price movement will be played by the economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Retail Sales numbers come out, expected to show an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous 0.2%. Because sales made at retail levels represent a major part of overall economic activity, higher numbers can strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers.
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FOREX NEWS: FINALLY OUT OF THE RANGE


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was slow until the Draghi “storm” hit the markets, sending the euro tumbling below several support levels. The ECB President mentioned talks about a taking the deposit rate further into negative territory and this was the main reason for euro weakness.

[Image: rpJN4nL.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Three horizontal support levels have been broken yesterday, as well as the bullish trend line and now the medium term outlook is bearish, aiming for 1.1100. That being said, keep in mind that strong moves are often followed by a pullback in the opposite direction or by a period of consolidation and sideways movement. The Relative Strength Index has entered oversold but it’s still going downwards and the same is true for the Stochastic (which is not oversold) so the downside momentum can still continue.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 7:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is announced, expected to show a value of 50.2 and half an hour later the indicator with the same name but for the German economy is released, with an anticipated value of 51.8. These are leading indicators of economic health derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and usually higher values strengthen the euro but the impact is low if the actual value matches analysts’ expectations.


GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales showed an unexpected increase (actual 1.9%, forecast 0.3%), strengthening the Pound substantially and breaching 1.5500 resistance once again. However, the climb was short lived and the pair soon reversed.

[Image: afg0DTe.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yet another encounter with 1.5500 resulted in a failed break and the pair descended below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but this dynamic support is not yet broken and can still push price higher. If today we will see a clear break of the moving average, the next destination is likely to be 1.5330, with the first hurdle at 1.5370.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by scheduled economic announcements, thus price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: BULLS FIGHT BACK, BEARS MAINTAIN OVERALL CONTROL


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday’s economic announcements didn’t affect the pair significantly and the bearish momentum that was started Thursday continued throughout the day, after a brief retracement to the upside.

[Image: YJoIRAC.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The massive drop seen during the last 2 trading days brought both oscillators in oversold territory and this fact, combined with the level of support at 1.1000 might generate a bullish bounce. If this comes true, the first level where downside movement will possibly resume is 1.1100. We expect a break of 1.1000 in the near future, but it should be confirmed by a re-test, at least on the lower time frames.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate comes out, expected to show a value of 108.1, slightly lower than the previous 108.5. This survey is highly respected due to its large sample of about 7,000 businesses that will rate the current economic conditions as well as expectations for the next 6 months. Usually, higher values are beneficial for the euro and the opposite is true for lower numbers.


GBP/USD

The greenback strengthened against the Pound Friday and the pair travelled below two important levels, opening the door for a new downtrend.

[Image: 6BXzY2F.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Bearish pressure is still strong and the pair is now moving south with good momentum which we expect to continue throughout the day. However, the bullish trend line seen on the chart above might hinder such downside movement if it’s not broken soon or if price shows rejection around it. A bounce higher will find potential resistance at 1.5330 followed by 1.5370; the oscillators are approaching an extreme reading so we may see an encounter with the levels mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook

Price direction will be influenced by the technical side today, as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic announcements.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. DURABLE GOODS, U.K. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT – WE’RE IN FOR A BUSY DAY


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair had a slow session yesterday, but completed a retracement after touching 1.1000 support. The German IFO Business Climate survey showed a value close to analysts’ expectations so the impact was muted.

[Image: 7eD6xhX.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.1000 offered good support and generated a bullish retracement which may extend into the resistance at 1.1100. The fact that both oscillators are in oversold territory and moving upwards increases the chances of a bigger move north but the overall picture remains bearish and we expect at least another encounter with 1.1000 if not a break.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Durable Goods Orders are released at 12:30 pm GMT, expected to show a -1.1% change (previous -2.3%). These are orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least three years, with higher values showing increased economic confidence and activity and thus a stronger dollar.

At 2:00 pm GMT the CB Consumer Confidence survey comes out, showing the opinion of about 5,000 households about the current economic conditions in the US. High levels of confidence suggest that consumers will spend more in the near future and this usually benefits the greenback so values above the forecast 102.5 may bring the pair lower.


GBP/USD

The pair moved mostly on a bullish path yesterday, but no major breakouts occurred and overall we had a slow session.

[Image: 9Y0Oneo.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bullish trend line we talked about rejected price higher, sending the pair into the resistance at 1.5370 but the bullish pullback stopped there. Today we expect another attempt to break the bullish trend line and the bearish momentum started Friday to continue. To the upside 1.5370 remains resistance but the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also in close vicinity, creating a confluence zone which will be hard for the bulls to break.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released today at 9:30 am GMT. This is the main gauge of an economy’s performance, thus higher numbers than the expected 0.6% (previous 0.7%) usually strengthen the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: THE US DOLLAR TAKES A BLOW OR GETS A PUSH. THE FED DECIDES


EUR/USD



Forex News: Despite worse than expected US economic data, the pair moved lower yesterday and this shows the greenback possesses underlying strength and that we are likely to see further downside.

[Image: rDhCXg7.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bearish movement is likely to continue today and 1.1000 is the first target. The Stochastic is clearly out of oversold so a bearish cross will announce a possible fall, but the Relative Strength Index is still close to its 30 level and overall the picture offered by the oscillators is pretty blurry. Price action might be slow during the day until the big Fed event scheduled in the afternoon.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:00 pm GMT the Fed will announce their decision on the interest rate. Unlike in September, a change is not expected (currently <0.25%) but a surprise will generate huge movement on all US Dollar pairs. At the same time the FOMC will release a Rate Statement, outlining the reasons that stood behind the rate decision.


GBP/USD

The Pound was negatively affected by a disappointing value of the British Gross Domestic Product (forecast 0.6%; actual 0.5%) that generated a bearish trading session and a break of the bullish trend line.

[Image: tqIOcmw.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the oscillators are curved downwards but not oversold and the bullish trend line is broken so all things point towards a bearish market and probably an encounter with 1.5200 in the near future. If the pair starts to move to the upside, first resistance will be offered by 1.5330 and the recently broken trend line.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements but the pair will be directly affected by Fed’s decision regarding the interest rate and by the FOMC Rate Statement.
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FOREX NEWS: END OF YEAR RATE HIKE STILL ON THE TABLE. LOOK FOR MORE US DOLLAR STRENGTH


EUR/USD



Forex News: Before the Fed released their rate decision and Monetary Policy Statement, price action was slow and choppy but as anticipated, the release created strong volatility, although the rate was not changed. The Fed made it clear that a potential hike is tightly correlated to jobs and inflation.

[Image: gtz5Vnw.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The US Dollar strengthened on optimism that a December rate hike is still on the table and the pair broke through 1.1000 with ease after a close encounter with the resistance at 1.1100 earlier during the day. Our bias for the pair is negative, expecting a touch of 1.0820 during the days to come but the strong bearish move is likely to see a rubber band effect and a pullback higher before the mentioned target can be touched. If this occurs, the first potential resistance is located at 1.1000.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States will release at 12:30 pm GMT the Advance Gross Domestic Product which is the first in a series of three versions but also the most important. Values above the expected 1.6% usually strengthen the greenback.

Half an hour later, at 1:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index comes out, expected to show -0.1% while the previous was -0.2%. Since this is the main gauge of inflation and is currently considered too low, higher values will most likely strengthen the euro while the opposite is true for lower values.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound gained ahead of the FOMC release but the US Dollar erased all these gains when the Statement came out.

[Image: 3v8v4CM.jpg]

Technical Outlook

During yesterday’s movement, 1.5330 was confirmed as resistance and now we can expect this level to reject price if touched in the future. As for today, our outlook is bearish, expecting a continuation of the move started by the FOMC Statement; the pair is likely to come closer to 1.5200 but probably a retracement will occur before this level can be touched.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom has scheduled a light calendar for today so the main focus will be on the US Advance GDP and the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: RETRACEMENTS COMPLETE, US DOLLAR TAKES BACK CONTROL


EUR/USD



Forex News: The German Preliminary CPI was slightly better than anticipated while the US Advance GDP showed a disappointing value and all this, combined with the rubber band effect we discussed yesterday, created a bullish retracement.

[Image: qnBqTyk.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action confirmed 1.0900 as support and bounced higher, mostly due to the reasons outlined above. Now we observe a bullish divergence (price is making lower lows but the Relative Strength Index is making higher lows) so the current move up might extend into 1.1000 which may turn into resistance. The overall picture still remains bearish, with 1.0900 as first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Retail Sales come out today at 7:00 am GMT, with a big increase anticipated, from the previous -0.4% to 0.4%. Because sales made at retail levels are a big part of overall economic activity, higher numbers usually strengthen the euro. Later at 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Consumer Price Index is released and expected to show 0.0% compared to the previous -0.1%. Higher numbers for this indicator usually benefit the euro as well.


GBP/USD

The Pound also benefited from disappointing U.S. data and the pair rallied but the move wasn’t significant and first resistance wasn’t threatened.

[Image: Ae9owtl.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair created minor support around 1.5250 and this is now the first target of the day. The current up move could extend into 1.5330 resistance but we don’t expect this level to be broken considering that overall the short term trend is bearish and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is descending and will probably offer resistance if touched.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major releases scheduled for today so the pair will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
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FOREX NEWS: TOO HIGH, TOO FAST – BEARISH ACTION EXPECTED


EUR/USD



Forex News: For the most part of Friday the pair had a bullish bias, continuing to climb after the bounce at 1.0900 support. However, later in the afternoon the sellers stepped in and erased some of the gains.

[Image: XAlhG9n.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bullish divergence mentioned last week was a warning sign about an extended up move but now we note bearish divergence (price is making a lower high but the Relative Strength Index is making a higher high) and this could mean that we will see another drop. Price stopped very close to 1.1000 but if early in the day we will see a move below this level, probably most of the day will be controlled by the bears, heading into 1.0900 (probably such a move will not be completed in one day).

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the release of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector who are asked to rate the current level of business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Usually numbers above the forecast 50.0 are beneficial for the US Dollar but the impact is higher if the actual number differs significantly from the analysts’ consensus.


GBP/USD

The Pound exhibited tremendous strength Friday and totally reversed the bearish momentum seen earlier, breaking several resistances and opening the door for more upside movement.

[Image: iwRerj6.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The strong move seen Friday is likely to retrace lower before heading higher and the first potential bounce area is 1.5370 combined with the recently broken 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are touching their overbought levels, increasing the chances of a move south. A key level of resistance remains 1.5500 so if price heads there without retracement, it will probably bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom will also release their Manufacturing PMI earlier in the day, at 9:30 am GMT. Similar to the U.S. indicator, this index usually strengthens the currency if higher than anticipated values are posted. The forecast is 51.3, a slight change from the previous 51.5.
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FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE BUILDING UP. BULLS STILL ACTIVE


EUR/USD



Forex News: The U.S. Manufacturing PMI released yesterday was close to analysts’ expectations and the impact wasn’t tremendous. Overall the session was choppy, with slow movement.

[Image: 8UwAQ1c.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair remained above the support at 1.1000 but movement was mostly sideways and the bearish divergence is still present, making us anticipate a drop below the mentioned level. A move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.1100 would invalidate a bearish scenario and would shift the short to medium term bias in favour of the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major news releases for the euro and the greenback but late afternoon at 7:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at an event titled the European Cultural Days 2015, in Frankfurt. The late hour and the fact that the speech’s topic is not monetary policy, may translate in a lower than usual impact.


GBP/USD

The Pound had a good first part of yesterday, on the back of a better than expected value posted by the British Manufacturing PMI (actual 55.5, forecast 51.3), so the pair touched 1.5500 resistance, but failed to break it and retraced lower in the afternoon.

[Image: CT8TD9K.jpg]

Technical Outlook

As anticipated, a touch of a strong resistance like 1.5500, combined with the overbought condition of the oscillators, triggered a move south. If the support zone created around 1.5415 can reject price higher, then we will probably see a break of 1.5500 resistance; otherwise we expect a touch of the bullish trend line which was broken earlier but can still offer some form of support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI comes out, with an expected value of 58.9, lower than the previous 59.9. Same as with the other PMIs, higher values are beneficial for the Pound and the impact will be bigger if the actual value differs a lot from analysts’ expectations.
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