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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: BULLS AND BEARS STRUGGLING FOR CONTROL IN AMBIGUOUS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT


EUR/USD



Forex News: The U.S. Trade Balance showed a bigger deficit than analysts expected, weakening the US Dollar and allowing the pair to climb during yesterday; however, movement was still slow and without clear strength on either side until late afternoon.

[Image: hWI3zhQ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair rallied above 1.1215 but price action doesn’t reveal whether the move up will continue or not. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat and the oscillators don’t show a clear direction, adding to the blurry picture. The levels to watch remain 1.1215 and 1.1320 and in case of a sell off, the bullish trend line can offer important clues, with a break suggesting further downside.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light for both the US Dollar and the Euro, so traders will focus on the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The Pound gained against the US Dollar as well and now is struggling to break to the upside a confluence zone; the main part of yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the bulls, with a surge in the afternoon.

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Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5200 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average create a confluence zone which will be tough for the bulls to break but if they do so, they will score an important victory. A true break should be followed by a successful re-test from above which will turn 1.5200 into support. If this is the case, the next target is 1.5330, otherwise the pair will likely head towards 1.5100.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production numbers are released, showing changes in the total value of output generated by the manufacturing sector. Higher numbers than the anticipated 0.4% (previous -0.8%) will most likely strengthen the Pound. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate is announced, offering insights into the overall performance of the British economy. Although this is just an estimate, the impact is usually strong, with higher numbers than the previous 0.5% being beneficial for the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES, BOE RATE DECISION – A STORM WAITING TO HAPPEN


EUR/USD



Forex News: Indecision continued throughout yesterday’s trading session and the pair didn’t make substantial advances to either side. A light economic calendar most likely contributed to this movement.

[Image: P5CQUaz.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.1280 gained importance for short term price action as we see the pair react to this zone, bouncing lower every time it touches it. A breakout is still anticipated, with support being offered by the bullish trend line and immediate resistance at 1.1280, but the direction is uncertain and will probably be decided by the contents of the FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, which will offer insights into the economic reasons that determined them to hold rates unchanged. Since a lot of speculation surrounded a September rate hike, finding out more details about the reasons behind the FOMC decision is crucial and the impact of the release will probably be bigger than on other occasions. As always, caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

British Manufacturing numbers surpassed analysts’ expectations, strengthening the Pound and generating another bullish trading session, taking the pair close to 1.5330 resistance.

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Technical Outlook

The bulls made important advances yesterday but 1.5330 resistance sits in front of rising prices and the oscillators are approaching overbought. This could mean that we are about to see a reversal around this level, followed by a re-test of 1.5200 but today the Bank of England has prepared important announcements which will heavily influence the pair’s direction, making the technical aspect secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the official bank rate and will also make public a breakdown of the members’ votes. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.50% but a change in the members’ stance will undoubtedly trigger strong movement. At the same time the BoE will release a Summary of their Monetary Policy which can also have a strong impact on the Sterling.
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FOREX NEWS: GRINDING HIGHER, WITH LIMITED UPSIDE POTENTIAL


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair surpassed yesterday’s high but soon returned below resistance before the release of the FOMC Minutes which contained some mixed signals but showed that voters didn’t rule out a rate hike later this year.

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Technical Outlook

The pair continues to grind higher, without breaking resistance but lately a lot of candles show long wicks, suggesting indecision. Yesterday’s bounce at 1.1320 followed by a move down could generate additional bearish price action, with 1.1215 as first target but on the other hand, a full candle break of 1.1320 would solidify the slim control of the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook

The last day of the trading week is light in terms of economic announcements so the main focus will be on the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept the rate unchanged and the MPC members voted as analysts expected so the event went mostly unnoticed but the Pound strengthened early during the day. The FOMC Meeting Minutes created US Dollar weakness but the movement wasn’t substantial.

[Image: 4sigVtI.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved above 1.5330 and created short term resistance at 1.5370 but similar to the euro-dollar, the latest candles show long wicks, suggesting that indecision is present. The Stochastic is overbought and curving downwards, indicating that a drop might follow; if this is the case, 1.5330 is the first barrier that needs to be broken, while to the upside the first target is located at 1.5370.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the British Trade Balance released at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of -10.0B (previous -11.1B). The indicator tracks the value difference between imported and exported goods and higher numbers show a thriving economy (numbers above zero indicate that more goods were exported than imported). The impact is generally medium, especially if the actual number is close to analysts’ expectations.
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FOREX NEWS: FUNDAMENTALS MAKE WAY FOR THE TECHNICAL SIDE – POSSIBLE REVERSALS


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair finished the week on a bullish note as Friday we saw price climb for almost the entire day. Immediate resistance is now broken but major resistance is still intact.

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Technical Outlook

Price is now moving above 1.1320, with minor resistance at 1.1380 and looks like the pair exited the choppiness it was in. It is important to note that both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are approaching overbought, warning about a potential reversal below 1.1320. If this is the case, we are likely to see a day with ranging price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Union didn’t schedule major economic announcements for the day and U.S. banks will be closed, celebrating Columbus Day. All this may translate into choppy movement and irregular volatility.


GBP/USD

The Pound couldn’t continue the extended bullish run and Friday we had a session controlled mostly by the bears after another bounce at short term resistance.

[Image: pHhODrk.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.5370 offered strong resistance in front of rising price and generated a move lower which took the pair below 1.5330. The oscillators are coming down after showing an overbought condition so the current drop is likely to extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which will offer the first form of support. A break of the moving average will open the door for a move into 1.5200 but probably price will not travel such a long distance today.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the European Union and the United States, the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements so the entire economic calendar is blank, with traders focusing on the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: THE TECHNICAL SIDE HINTS ABOUT REVERSALS BUT NEEDS CONFIRMATION FROM FUNDAMENTALS


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the economic calendar was light and price direction was mainly influenced by the technical side. Overall the day was slow, with a failed attempt to move above resistance.

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Technical Outlook

The last few four hour candles show long wicks and this is a sign of reversal, especially because it happens close to 1.1380 short term resistance. Adding to the possibility of a move down is also the fact that both oscillators are showing overbought signs. The first level of potential support in case of a drop is located at 1.1320, while a clear break and close above 1.1380 would make 1.1450 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The highlight of the day is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey which is released at 9:00 am GMT and expected to show a value of 6.8, much lower than the previous 12.1. The survey is based on the opinions of about 275 German professional analysts and investors and asks them to rate the German economic outlook for the next 6 months. Higher numbers than anticipated show optimism and usually strengthen the euro but the impact is mild if the forecast matches the actual numbers.


GBP/USD

The pair slowly climbed yesterday but stopped once again at minor resistance. This shows Pound weakness and prepares us for a potential move south.

[Image: SAbiPZq.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The minor resistance created around 1.5370 is gaining importance for short term movement as seen from yesterday’s price action. Once again the level rejected rising price and we expect a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average if the mentioned resistance is not broken soon. The oscillators are moving downwards but without clear direction so we will turn to the fundamental side, expecting it to show the real bias of the day.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation is released today at 8:30 am GMT. A lower value than the forecast 0.0% will most likely trigger Pound weakness and a move south for the pair, bringing price closer to the 50 EMA.
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FOREX NEWS: BULLS STUMBLE AHEAD OF U.S. RETAIL SALES AND BRITISH UNEMPLOYMENT DATA


EUR/USD



Forex News: The euro-dollar pair had another day characterized by mixed movement as early in yesterday’s session the bulls tried without success to keep price above resistance. The second part of the session belonged to the bears and the pair returned lower, influenced also by a weak reading of the German ZEW.

[Image: PJi9DqS.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is now below 1.1380 resistance and both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are pointing downwards after coming out of overbought. These are bearish signs which make us believe that today we will see an encounter with 1.1320 and probably with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The fundamental outlook will play a major role today as an important U.S. indicator is released: the Retail Sales. The expected change is 0.2% (same as last month), with higher numbers usually strengthening the US Dollar because sales made at retail levels represent a huge part of overall consumer spending which in turn accounts for the main part of economic activity.


GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index showed a value of -0.1%, lower than analysts’ expectation of a flat 0.0%. This pushed back the hopes of a near future rate hike and weakened the Pound substantially yesterday.

[Image: 7pqa9DC.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After another unsuccessful attempt to break the short term resistance located at 1.5370, the pair dropped swiftly through 1.5330 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, pausing at 1.5200. This strong drop is likely to extend below 1.5200, taking the pair into the next support located around 1.5100 but both currencies are affected by important announcements today and a lot will depend on the numbers posted.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Claimant Count Change is released at 8:30 am GMT and is expected to show a change of -2.3K (previous 1.2K). The indicator tracks unemployment levels by showing the change in the number of people without jobs who applied for social benefits. If the actual number is lower than forecast, the Pound is likely to gain strength (the bigger the difference, the higher the impact). Of course, the U.S. Retail Sales will also have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.
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FOREX NEWS: KEY RESISTANCE AHEAD. ALL EYES ON U.S. INFLATION


EUR/USD



Forex News: The bulls had a brief moment of weakness yesterday before the release off the U.S. Retail Sales numbers but the disappointing value allowed the pair to climb and to touch key resistance.

[Image: hZPfJvD.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance located at 1.1450 is of major importance to medium term movement and yesterday the pair missed it by just a few pips. A break of this key level would signify a major victory for the bulls and would open the door for the next resistance, located at 1.1713. Surely such a distance will not be travelled today and more importantly, we have to note that 1.1450 still acts as strong resistance which can reverse the bullish move. The oscillators are hovering in the upper part of their channels but not yet overbought so they don't offer strong clues.

Fundamental Outlook

The focus remains on the US Dollar today for the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index which is one of the main gauges of American inflation. The indicator holds special importance because the Fed is closely monitoring inflation when deciding whether to increase or not the interest rate this year. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is -0.2% compared to the previous -0.1%; lower numbers usually weaken the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair had a surprisingly bullish day, erasing all of the losses incurred a day earlier and clearly breaking resistance. The British Claimant Count Change showed a worse than expected number but the pair continued to climb.

[Image: 0ChvBz4.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is clearly on a bullish path and 1.5500 is the next probable destination. After such a strong move, price is likely to pull back a little and to re-test 1.5370 from above, turning it into support. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought, signalling that a retracement is possible but the Stochastic is headed upwards, suggesting that the current move can easily continue so the oscillators are offering mixed signals.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn't schedule major news releases for today so the pair's direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION IS UP AND SO ARE THE HOPES FOR A RATE HIKE


EUR/USD



Forex News: Inflation improved in the United States, as shown yesterday by the CPI release, and this was one of the main reasons for the strong drop which took the pair below 1.1450.

[Image: 5wbqjyQ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After moving above 1.1450, the bulls ran out of steam, both oscillators entered overbought, which combined with better than expected U.S. inflation data, triggered the substantial drop seen yesterday. Of course the question is whether this move can continue lower or will it be stopped by support. Currently the pair is testing 1.1380 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity so the question will be answered by the way price will behave at this support area, with a break meaning that we are headed towards 1.1320.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s Europe’s turn to release inflation data in the form of the Final CPI but this release is likely to have a lower impact than the American one because German inflation is already released. The scheduled time is 9:00 am GMT and the expected value is -0.1%, same as previous; higher numbers are beneficial for the euro.

Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey, expected to show 88.8, slightly better than the previous 87.2. Since consumer confidence is correlated with consumer spending, higher numbers will most likely strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair was affected by the U.S. CPI release but to a lower extent and price action was choppy after touching 1.5500 resistance.

[Image: Y3DLtrb.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair showed rejection at 1.5500 by creating two pin bars (candles with small bodies and a long upper wick) but we can also see a long wick for the last bearish candle so the next move remains uncertain. The Stochastic is oversold and the Relative Strength Index is close to its 70 level so we can still see a drop if 1.5500 holds and rejects price again. On the other hand, a move above this level would probably bring in more buyers and would push the pair higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light for the Pound so all eyes will be on the U.S. release but also on the technical factors.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS, AS RESISTANCE HOLDS


EUR/USD



Forex News: Europe’s Final version of the CPI came out Friday with the value anticipated by analysts and the event went mostly unnoticed but a better than expected U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey strengthened the US Dollar later in the day.

[Image: 3NW0zVb.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Overall Friday was choppy, without major advances made by either side but two four-hour candles touched 1.1380 and closed as pin bars (long upper wicks). This shows rejection and also that 1.1380 is now resistance. Price is now below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and heading towards 1.1320, but the Stochastic has reached oversold so the chart offers mixed signals. Nonetheless, the short term bias is still bearish and 1.1320 is a probable destination but a move above the 50 EMA will probably extend into 1.1380.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major news announcements for both the Euro and the Dollar so the pair’s direction will be mainly decided by the technical factors.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar pair had a slow day Friday, with some US Dollar strength, mostly triggered by the Consumer Sentiment survey. Resistance is still holding, support wasn’t threatened and the pair is ranging on the lower time frames.

[Image: QFW11go.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5500 proves to be strong for medium term price action as several attempts to break it resulted in moves lower. The Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are moving downwards, supporting a move into 1.5370 but the bears seem to lack strength and momentum is low. Price action is likely to be choppy, with a slightly bearish bias. 

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and the Dollar, the Pound is not affected by any economic indicators today so we expect slow and possibly choppy movement, with the main focus being on the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: BULLS FADE AWAY, A NEW DOWNTREND LOOMS


EUR/USD



Forex News: The fundamental scene didn’t influence much yesterday’s movement but throughout the day the bears controlled the pair and managed to threaten immediate support.

[Image: MojviBS.jpg]

Technical Outlook

If the bears manage to break 1.1320, the pair is likely to visit 1.1280 again and then to head towards 1.1215 and the bullish trend line. Even if this scenario comes true, we can expect retracements along the way, considering that the Stochastic is already oversold and the Relative Strength Index is close to its 30 level. First resistance will be offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the U.S. Building Permits is the day’s most notable event, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The forecast is 1.16M, almost identical with the previous 1.17M (annualized numbers); higher numbers show a thriving construction sector and can strengthen the US Dollar. Usually the impact is mild if the actual number matches analysts’ expectations.


GBP/USD

The Pound headed higher yesterday but the key resistance at 1.5500 couldn’t be broken, signalling that the bulls might be running out of steam.

[Image: DkfAIvA.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We expect a bearish bounce at 1.5500, which will probably take price close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, the pair is still in a medium term uptrend and no significant low has been created so the possibility of a break of 1.5500 is still valid, but a true break should be confirmed by a re-test from above, visible at least on the lower time frames.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify today at 10:00 am GMT before the Treasury Select Committee. The main topic will be the Bank of England Bill and the speech can have strong impact on the Pound so caution is recommended.
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