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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: DRAGHI TESTIFIES, US DOLLAR RUNNING ON ALL ENGINES


EUR/USD


Forex News: The greenback continued its run yesterday and managed to break support, generating another day controlled by the bears. The Euro Zone Consumer Confidence survey came out with the expected value and didn’t affect the pair much.

[Image: VGnk6CN.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The dollar is going strong and the pair is trading below 1.1215, heading for 1.1100 but the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are approaching extreme territory, thus a bullish retracement is in order. We believe this pullback will occur before 1.1100 can be broken and that it will find resistance somewhere around 1.1215. If this level holds as resistance, we will most likely see a break of 1.1100 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The French Manufacturing PMI is released at 7:00 am GMT, expected to show a value of 48.6 and half an hour later the same indicator for the German economy is released, with a forecast of 52.8. These surveys act as leading indicators of economic health and higher than anticipated numbers have a positive impact on the euro.

ECB President Mario Draghi will testify on monetary policy before the European Parliament today at 1:00 pm GMT and this will probably be the most important event of the day. His attitude and answers will dictate the next euro direction so caution is recommended during his speech.


GBP/USD

The British Public Sector Net Borrowing showed more debt than anticipated and the Pound suffered the effects, weakening against the greenback for almost the entire day.

[Image: XUcoLKY.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bullish trend line we mentioned yesterday is now clearly broken and 1.5330 support is now threatened, with the bears being in clear control of short term price action. However, price has travelled too far and too fast and the oscillators are entering oversold, increasing the chances of a move north in the form of a pullback. When this move occurs, it should be treated as a simple retracement, not a reversal and once it is complete, we expect a break of 1.5330 support.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements for today so centre stage will be held by the technical factors.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES TO DEFY SUPPORT. RETRACEMENTS AHEAD


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro-dollar pair continued to move lower yesterday and came in close vicinity of the support at 1.1100. A hawkish attitude adopted by ECB President Mario Draghi pushed the pair higher in the afternoon.

[Image: zPKiKxB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current move up is likely to continue until 1.1215 is touched but once this important level is reached, we expect a bounce lower that will take the pair below 1.1100. This level is key for short term movement and a break would be a substantial victory for the bears but note the oversold condition of the Stochastic and the fact that both oscillators have already started to move higher; these facts will favour a move north but we don’t expect a clear break of 1.1215.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey is released, showing the opinions of about 7,000 businesses about economic conditions as well as an outlook for the next 6 months. Due to its large sample, this survey has a hefty impact on the euro and higher numbers than the expected 107.8 can take the pair higher.

On the US Dollar side we have the Durable Goods Orders, scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a change of -2.0%, much lower than the previous 2.2%. Such a substantial drop would weaken the US Dollar, allowing the pair to climb.


GBP/USD

The pair moved lower for almost the entire day, without any sort of retracement to the upside, just a brief period of sideways movement, seen on the lower time frames.

[Image: mIO7HXs.jpg]

Technical Outlook

A bullish pullback is still expected, considering the long distance travelled in one direction and the oversold condition of both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index. Once this retracement is complete and downside movement resumes, we expect a break of 1.5200 but a move above 1.5330 would invalidate such a scenario for the moment.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 8:30 am GMT the British Bankers’ Association release the Mortgage Approvals which offer insights into the housing market. The indicator is not exceptionally important and the impact is usually low but higher numbers than the expected 46.3K can bring some strength for the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: BULLS FIGHT BACK, BEARS RETALIATE


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro benefited from better than expected data yesterday while the US Dollar was weakened by a worse than previous value of the Durable Goods Orders thus the pair climbed for most of yesterday.

[Image: wdbVsly.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved to the upside more than expected and now it is heading towards the resistance located at 1.1320. The bullish trend line broken a while back and visible on the chart above can also offer some resistance, creating a confluence zone combined with 1.1320. This resistance area is likely to push the pair lower and if this is true, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will become the first support which needs to be broken, followed of course by 1.1215.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:30 pm GMT the Final version of the United States Gross Domestic Product is released and although this is the least important out of the three (Advance, Preliminary and Final), it still can create strong movement, especially if the actual value shows a big difference compared to analysts’ forecast. The expected number is 3.7%, same as previous and a higher value suggests a thriving economy and could strengthen the US Dollar, taking the pair lower.


GBP/USD

After a perfect touch of support, the pair bounced higher, completing a much needed retracement. Yesterday price action was choppy and difficult to trade especially on the lower time frames.

[Image: gWhYXFz.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.5200 shows that the bulls are starting to fight back and both oscillators are in oversold territory, starting to move upwards. This means that we may see an extended move to the upside but it’s important to note the last few candles show long upper wicks, which is a sign of rejection and a hint that price may be ready to move south again. Short term resistance is located at 1.5285.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the rest of the week, today is slow as far as economic releases are concerned and the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major indicator announcements. The pair’s direction will be affected by the U.S. GDP and by the technical factors.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: GREENBACK STEALS THE SHOW AS RATE HIKE SPECULATION SPURS VOLATILITY


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday’s price action was mixed, with the bears making another failed attempt to move the pair below 1.1100; instead the bulls gained control and took the pair into resistance. However, no important levels were broken.

[Image: 0wRAvQK.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the level at 1.1215 are now the first resistance zone in front of rising prices. Recently we saw a bullish move above 1.1215 which couldn’t be sustained and price soon dropped so the same scenario might occur today unless we see a successful re-test after a potential bullish break. The oscillators don’t offer important hints about the next direction so we are dealing with a classic bounce-or-break scenario with 1.1215 as the main star of the play.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT Wall Street Journal’s Jon Hilsenrath will interview FOMC voting member William Dudley. The topic is the always important inflation and interest rate so the event may trigger increased volatility and strong movement. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Pending Home Sales are released, expected to show a change of 0.4% compared to the previous 0.5%; higher values point towards a thriving economic environment and usually strengthen the greenback to some extent.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair dropped below support and then returned to re-test it but the market closed before the outcome of the re-test could be known.

[Image: UcGyJRh.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.5200 was breached and currently a re-test is in progress but it is important to note the extreme oversold condition signaled by both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index. The oscillators have spent a long period below their respective oversold levels and this drastically increases the chances of a bullish move above 1.5200. The greenback will be affected by the interview given by FOMC member Dudley and this event is likely to decide the pair’s next move.

Fundamental Outlook

All eyes will be on the US Dollar today for the events mentioned before as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements.
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FOREX NEWS: BOUNCE-OR-BREAK SCENARIO STILL IN PLAY AHEAD OF GERMAN INFLATION, U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday’s movement was slow and mixed for most of the session but in the afternoon the US Dollar suffered from much worse than expected Pending Home Sales, so the pair moved higher. Although Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley expressed his belief that a rate hike will come later in the year, the greenback didn’t show a strong reaction.

[Image: DbAea1X.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Given yesterday’s slow movement, the outlook remains almost the same: the bounce-or-break scenario is still in play, with the confluence zone created by 1.1215 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average offering the first resistance. A bullish break should be confirmed by a re-test from above while a successful bounce will probably take the pair into the first support, located at 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s direction will be affected by German inflation numbers released at 12:00 pm GMT in the form of the Consumer Price Index. The expected value is 0.1% (previous 0.2%) and a drop would be another blow dealt to an already weak euro so we are likely to see bearish movement if the forecast comes true.

At 2:00 pm GMT an U.S. Consumer Confidence survey comes out, expected to drop to 96.2 from the previous 101.5. Because consumer confidence is tightly correlated with consumer spending, a lower value usually weakens the greenback.


GBP/USD

The bulls attempted yesterday to take price above 1.5200 but did not succeed and the pair is now trading below this level. Overall the session was choppy on the lower time frames.

[Image: c3rFcDq.jpg]

Technical Outlook

A bullish pullback is still expected but the Pound seems to be weak and 1.5200 acts as a strong resistance zone. A close of a strong bullish four-hour candle above this level will probably trigger a retracement to the upside and 1.5285 will become the first potential target. The oscillators still haven’t cleared their oversold condition and this will increase the chances of a move north but keep in mind that overall the picture is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:40 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech at Lloyds of London. A more hawkish than expected attitude will generate pound strength and hints about the nearing of a rate hike will bring strength to the currency as well.
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FOREX NEWS: EURO ZONE INFLATION AND FIRST LOOK AT U.S. JOBS DATA – INGREDIENTS FOR A BREAKOUT


EUR/USD



Forex News: German inflation showed a worse than expected change and U.S. Consumer Confidence increased more than anticipated but despite all this, yesterday’s session was not entirely controlled by the bears and price action was mixed.

[Image: nnKIhX1.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current move down can be a re-test of the recently broken resistance at 1.1215 which may turn into support if price bounces higher. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is almost flat, moving alongside 1.1215 but can also offer some form of support; however, the overall picture is mixed and neither side is in clear control. If the pair stays above 1.1215, the first target will become 1.1320, otherwise we are headed towards 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the European Consumer Price Index comes out, expected to show a decrease from the previous 0.1% to 0.0%. Since this is the main gauge of inflation (which has been too low for a long while), further decreases can negatively affect the euro.

At 12:15 pm GMT the ADP version of the Non-Farm Employment Change is released, offering an early look into the American jobs situation. The report is not as important as the government released data that comes out Friday but higher numbers than the forecast 192K usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair remained below immediate resistance for most of yesterday and overall we had a slow session, with a bearish bias.

[Image: z7K1PfG.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair found support around 1.5135 and it keeps grinding lower although the speed has definitely diminished. If the mentioned short term support can be broken early in the day, we expect a touch of 1.5100 but keep in mind that the oscillators haven’t visited the upper boundaries or even the 50 level in a long while and this increases the chances of moves north.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Current Account (value difference between imported and exported goods) is released at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of -22.2B (previous -26.5B). At the same time the Final Gross Domestic Product comes out (no change forecast from the previous 0.7%) and values above expectations for both indicators are considered bullish for the Pound and implicitly for the pair.
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FOREX NEWS: HEADING FOR SUPPORT ON POSITIVE U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the euro took a hit from disappointing inflation and the US Dollar strengthened from better than expected numbers for the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and as a result the pair travelled again below 1.1215.

[Image: Nby7WdD.jpg]

Technical Outlook

For the second time in a relatively short while the bulls took the pair above 1.1215 but then failed to capitalize on the break and price soon returned below the level. This shows lack of strength and also that we might see a break or at least a touch of 1.1100 today; both oscillators are moving downwards, supporting such a move.

Fundamental Outlook

The day is slower than we got used to this week but the notable events are the release of the U.S. Unemployment Claims at 12:30 pm GMT (expected to show a number of 273K unemployed individuals) and the U.S. Manufacturing PMI (forecast 50.8). Higher numbers for the first indicator usually weaken the greenback and better than expected values for the second strengthen it, but often the impact is mild if the difference between forecast and actual numbers is not substantial.


GBP/USD

The British Current Account showed improvement and this took the pair higher in the early stages of yesterday’s trading session but the bears took over once positive U.S. data came out.

[Image: X2mZTcx.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair still hasn’t completed a proper retracement and the oscillators are just coming out of oversold territory, suggesting that price might head higher too. Yesterday we saw a move into 1.5200 which resulted in a bounce lower and overall the picture is bearish so if 1.5135 is broken, we are likely to see a touch of 1.5100; here price is likely to pause or retrace higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is also released today and expected to show a value of 51.3, a slight decrease from the previous 51.5. The time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and because this is a leading indicator of economic health, higher values strengthen the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: TRADING IN CALM WATERS BEFORE THE NON-FARM PAYROLLS STORM HITS


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair was little affected by economic releases and instead the technical aspect was the main price mover yesterday. We had a bullish trading session but immediate resistance was not broken.

[Image: WEaBtjA.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.1215 may turn into resistance if it rejects price lower once it is touched. The break of the bullish trend line seen in the chart above is likely to trigger additional bearish movement but 1.1100 remains the key level for short term price action. To the upside the level to watch is 1.1215 followed by the bearish trend line. The technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental today as the much anticipated NFP report is released.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is comes out, showing how many new jobs were created during the previous month. The employment situation weighs heavily in Fed’s decision regarding a possible rate increase so today’s report is probably more important than usual and it is widely known that almost always the impact is huge. Higher numbers than the expected 202K (previous 173K) are beneficial for the US Dollar and can take the pair lower.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair moved higher after almost touching the support at 1.5100. The British Manufacturing PMI showed a value close to analysts’ expectations and the impact on the Pound wasn’t substantial.

[Image: 1WoPV8Z.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is headed towards the resistance at 1.5200, with both oscillators moving upwards after a long period of being oversold, so the chances of a touch of resistance are high. Same as in the case of the euro-dollar pair, the pound-dollar will be heavily affected by the U.S. jobs report so the technical aspect will be overshadowed by the fundamentals.

Fundamental Outlook

The NFP release is the highlight of the day but before that, the Pound will be affected by the Construction PMI which comes out at 8:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 57.5, almost unchanged from the previous 57.3. This survey of purchasing managers from the construction sector acts as a leading indicator of economic health so higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Pound but the impact is often mild.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: LESS U.S. JOBS, YET RESISTANCE STILL HOLDS


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday’s highlight was the disappointing U.S. No-Farm Employment Change, which showed a number of 142K while the forecast was 201K. This initially weakened the US Dollar and took the pair higher but most of the euro gains were erased later in the day. 

[Image: lBBgUov.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price bounced at the bullish trend line and moved above 1.1215 but found heavy resistance at 1.1320 and returned below the bearish trend line. It looks like the US Dollar still has some steam left despite the unexpectedly low number of jobs so we are likely to see down pressure and a move towards the bullish trend line. On the other hand, a quick move above 1.1215 and above the bearish trend line would suggest that 1.1320 will be tested again.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI. The indicator is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers from outside the manufacturing sector who are asked to rate the current level of business conditions. It acts as a leading indicator of economic health, with better than expected numbers strengthening the US Dollar. The forecast is 58.0, a decrease from the previous 59.0.


GBP/USD

The greenback felt the effects of the NFP report and the pound bulls capitalised on it, creating a much needed retracement higher. The dollar erased some of the losses later in the day and immediate resistance still holds.

[Image: wXqYZMk.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5200 was breached but the pair bounced at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and moved below the mentioned level. This means that for the moment resistance still holds and that we might see a new encounter with 1.5100. A move above the 50 period EMA would invalidate such a scenario and would make 1.5330 the next target during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 56.4, better than the previous 55.6. Similar to the U.S. indicator, it’s a survey of purchasing managers focused on business conditions and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: INDECISION AMONGST MIXED US DOLLAR SENTIMENT AND IRREGULAR VOLATILITY


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was characterized by indecision: the pair climbed but resistance wasn’t threatened and then a move lower followed but it wasn’t substantial and support is still not clearly broken.

[Image: veXhHhy.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is still flat and price is hovering near 1.1215. The downside is capped by a bullish trend line which we expect to be touched today but volatility is low and the market is having difficulty finding a clear direction. To the upside 1.1320 remains the first important short term resistance and a break would trigger additional bullish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the Eurogroup and ECOFIN Meetings take place, attended by major personalities of the financial and political world so the volatility is likely to pick up; also, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech in Frankfurt at 5:00 pm GMT.

On the US Dollar side we have the U.S. Trade Balance, released at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a value of -42.2B. The indicator tracks the difference between imports and exports and a higher value is considered beneficial for the greenback although the impact is sometimes medium.


GBP/USD

The Pound was affected yesterday by a worse than expected Services Index and this contributed partly to the drop below 1.5200 which came after an unsuccessful attempt to break resistance.

[Image: Fv1cN1K.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bulls failed to capitalize on a break of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and now the bears managed to take price below 1.5200. This shows that the US Dollar is still strong despite the disappointing NFP and that we might see a touch of the support at 1.5100 but keep in mind that neither side is in clear control and moves upwards are not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic announcements for today but the pair can be affected by the Eurogroup and ECOFIN Meetings and also by the technical aspect.
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