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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: POUND SOARS, MANUFACTURING DATA TO DECIDE NEXT DIRECTION


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Revised version of the Euro Zone GDP showed a better than expected value, resulting in euro strength and an encounter with resistance but the bulls failed to successfully break the level.

[Image: e3Tg2a3.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.1215 proved too strong for the pair and we saw a move lower after a bounce here. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity of the mentioned level, creating a confluence zone and adding extra resistance value so we expect price to head lower, towards the support at 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major releases for the euro or dollar and this makes the technical aspect the main focus of the day.


GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened more than expected and yesterday the pair continued to climb, breaking 1.5330 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

[Image: SFolo0J.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the pound exhibits strength, the overall picture is still bearish and we anticipate another descent which will have 1.5330 as first target. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic have reached their respective overbought levels, thus increasing the chances of a move south.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers come out today at 8:30 am GMT but no change is expected from the previous 0.2%. Since manufacturing is a big part of the British economy, higher numbers are beneficial for the pound and suggest increased economic activity.

The NIESR Gross Domestic Product is released later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT and can also have a strong impact on the pair. The previous value was 0.7% and higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound because this estimate proved to have a high accuracy.
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FOREX NEWS: THE BANK OF ENGLAND AND THE STORY OF THE STERLING


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the euro and the dollar weren’t affected much by macroeconomic releases and the pair bounced again at resistance, but failed to meet support and overall had a slow session.

[Image: JSGpkcU.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.1215 was touched again and price bounced lower, confirming that 1.1100 is the most probable destination. The mentioned resistance combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average create a confluence zone which will be hard for the bulls to break; the Stochastic is also crossed downwards, increasing the chances of a move lower and we maintain our bearish bias as long as the pair is trading below 1.1215.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release of the day is the U.S. Unemployment Claims scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. A larger number of people without jobs can negatively affect retail sales and consumer spending, so a higher value than the forecast 279K can weaken the US Dollar, driving the pair higher.


GBP/USD

British Manufacturing numbers disappointed yesterday and so did the NIESR GDP Estimate but despite all this, the pair just briefly dipped lower and did not manage to break support.

[Image: V6Kx90h.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The first form of support for the pair is now the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and possibly 1.5330 (although this level is not confirmed as support). A move below these barriers will suggest that the medium term downtrend will resume and the pair will make another attempt to break 1.5200, but a bounce at support will open the door for a touch of 1.5500 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce their interest rate decision which is not expected to change from the current 0.50%. However, the more important announcement is the breakdown of the votes of the MPC members. If they have changed their stance regarding a rate increase or decrease, then the Pound will move strongly and we will no doubt see huge moves on the pair.
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FOREX NEWS: A BATTERED US DOLLAR SEEKS AID FROM THE CONSUMER SENTIMENT SURVEY


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro dollar pair continued to climb without conviction but failed to move decisively above the barrier at 1.1215. The lack of macroeconomic releases contributed to the choppy movement seen yesterday.

[Image: 2xkdaMK.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair’s next move is unclear as lately it has been drifting and neither side was in control. As long as 1.1215 is not broken and then re-tested from above, it remains resistance and our bias remains bearish. A bullish break of 1.1215 would open the door for the next level of interest which is located at 1.1320 and could reject price lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The fundamental scene is busier today: the first potential market mover is the German Final Consumer Price Index which is expected to show a value of 0.2%, same as previous. However, a higher value would suggest that inflation picks up and could bring euro strength. The time of the announcement is 6:00 am GMT.

The University of Michigan will release at 2:00 pm GMT the Consumer Sentiment survey which is tightly correlated with consumer spending, so a higher value than the anticipated 91.8 could mean that spending among consumers will increase in the near future. Higher than anticipated values are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England didn’t make any changes to the interest rate and the members’ votes came out as anticipated (only one member voted for a rate increase). The release initially generated a bullish spike which was quickly reversed, but the pair then climbed again so trading was difficult on the lower time frames.

[Image: yd3oVw6.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is trading above 1.5330 so the short term bias is bullish. The first potential resistance is located at 1.5500, while support will be offered by the moving average, followed by 1.5330. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought for the second time in a short while and this can increase the chances of a move south.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so traders will focus on the U.S. releases and on the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: A LACKLUSTRE FUNDAMENTAL SCENE AHEAD OF THE MOST ANTICIPATED EVENT OF THE YEAR


EUR/USD


Forex News: U.S. data disappointed Friday as the Consumer Sentiment survey posted a much lower than expected value and the US Dollar reacted accordingly, weakening against the euro and allowing the pair to climb.

[Image: hTAvODQ.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Last week ended close to 1.1320 resistance and both oscillators are showing an overbought condition. The bullish trend line broken a while back can also offer resistance and all these factors make us believe that price is likely to head lower today. If this is the case, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will provide the first support barrier but considering the lack of financial releases, we might have a slow day.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Industrial Production numbers are released, with an anticipated change from the previous -0.4% to 0.3%. Such a difference may strengthen the euro but the impact is usually mild. This is the only notable release of the day, so traders will focus more on the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Friday’s price action was slow, with a bearish bias but the down move lacked strong momentum and overall no substantial advances were made by either side.

[Image: 4C19odg.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action shows that the bulls are starting to fade and possibly to make room for the bears to take over. The Relative Strength Index touched the 70 level twice in a short time and the Stochastic is showing bearish divergence; these facts make us anticipate a session controlled by the bears, with the moving average as target, but the lack of economic indicators may translate in a slow day.

Fundamental Outlook

As mentioned, there are no releases scheduled today for the Pound or the US Dollar so the technical factors will prevail.
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FOREX NEWS: CLASH WITH SUPPORT. HOW STRONG THE BULLS REALLY ARE?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was stronger than anticipated, but no major developments took place and the pair slowly descended below resistance.

[Image: 08AslmH.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price has found resistance at the bullish trend line and started to move south, below 1.1320 which remains resistance. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are moving down after reaching overbought and the balance is slowly tilting in favour of the bears, making the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the first potential target. If the bears cannot break this support quickly, we are likely to see another attempt to move above 1.1320.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is the day’s first important release, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to show a strong drop to 18.3 from the previous 24.0. This survey of 275 German professional investors and analysts acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher than expected numbers are usually beneficial for the euro.

The United States will release the Retail Sales numbers at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator usually has a hefty impact on the US Dollar and higher values than the forecast 0.4% (previous 0.6%) are beneficial for the currency.


GBP/USD

The bulls faded yesterday and the pair started to move south for a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The day lacked major news announcements or special events.

[Image: SEVXqen.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The move lower encountered support at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart and price is likely to push higher before breaking this form of dynamic support. However, a move above 1.5500 is not very probable, unless we see solid numbers for today’s British economic data. A break of the moving average will make 1.5330 the first destination for the pair.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Consumer Price Index is released and expected to show a value of 0.0% (previous 0.1%). The CPI is an important gauge of inflation and higher numbers are considered bullish for the Pound, so we may see a climb for the pair if the actual number will surpass analysts’ expectations. Later in the day, the pair will be influenced by the U.S. retail sales data.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION TAKES CENTRE STAGE AS WE APPROACH FED’S DECISION


EUR/USD


Forex News: Although the US Dollar was affected by soft Retail Sales data, the pair didn’t move much yesterday and instead ranged for the most part of the day, moving almost sideways.

[Image: WYFocKW.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We are still anticipating a move south, towards the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but yesterday’s price action doesn’t hold many clues about future movement. After a period of sideways movement, price is likely to shoot strongly but the direction is hard to anticipate so keep an eye for any breakouts during the day. The levels of importance remain 1.1320, 1.1215 and the moving average.

Fundamental Outlook

The last major release ahead of the Fed Interest Rate is scheduled today at 12:30 pm GMT in the form of the US Consumer Price Index which is an important gauge of overall inflation in the United States. A small drop is expected, from the previous 0.2% to 0.1% and if this forecast comes true, we are likely to see dollar weakness.


GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index showed the anticipated value, which was lower than previous and the Pound felt the effects, weakening and moving lower throughout the day.

[Image: w2cahXz.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After a brief climb, the pair has pierced through the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the bears seem to take control of price action on the back of disappointing British economic data. Both oscillators agree with a continued move lower so if the pair won’t bounce strongly at the moving average, we expect a touch of 1.5330.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Claimant Count is released, showing the change in the number of people who asked for unemployment related aid. Higher levels of unemployment point towards a contracting economy and a potentially weaker Sterling so higher numbers than the expected -5.1K are usually detrimental for the currency.
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FOREX NEWS: TO INCREASE OR NOT? THAT IS THE QUESTION!


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s main event was the release of the American Consumer Price Index which showed a worse than anticipated value, reversing a previous drop seen earlier in the day.

[Image: UkQxQl1.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair touched 1.1215 target and bounced almost perfectly immediately after, mostly because of the disappointing U.S. inflation numbers. Today the markets are faced with an almost historical event – Fed’s rate announcement – so during the day, price direction will present irregular behaviour and possibly sharp turns, with the technical aspect being almost entirely overshadowed. Extreme caution is recommended throughout the day and especially at release time.

Fundamental Outlook

The Fed will announce their decision today at 6:00 pm GMT. Earlier during this week, the majority of analysts expected an increase from 0.25% to 0.50% but now opinions are mixed: some expect a rise to 0.38%, while others expect the rate to remain unchanged. Nonetheless, the event will create a lot of volatility and probably substantial movement. At 6:30 pm GMT Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference, offering details about the decision.


GBP/USD

The pair dropped to touch 1.5330 support and then bounced strongly although the British Claimant Count Change showed a worse than expected value. The climb can be mostly attributed to a surprise announcement of the British Inflation Report Hearings, which came just a few hours before the event.

[Image: stVbvdv.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5500 is now standing in front of rising price and the bulls are struggling to break it. Due to the fact that price has travelled a long distance in a short while, we anticipate a bearish pullback before the next move but during the day, direction will be heavily influenced by the Fed Rate and, same as with the EUR/USD, the technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamentals.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales numbers come out at 8:30 am GMT, expected to show a change of 0.2% compared with the previous 0.1%. Because sales made at a retail level represent a major part of the entire economic activity, higher numbers can strengthen the Pound, but the impact will probably be low compared to the Fed Rate announcement.
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FOREX NEWS: THE AFTERMATH


EUR/USD


Yesterday price action was slow until the huge Fed event and once the decision to maintain the rate unchanged hit the markets, the US Dollar weakened substantially against most of its peers. However, Fed Chair Yellen mentioned that an October hike is not out of the question if overall economic and especially labor-market conditions improve.

[Image: 6Sy4801.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The minor resistance at 1.1320 was easily breached and now price is approaching 1.1450, but the US Dollar weakness generated by the Fed decision is likely to push the pair above this level. The oscillators are moving upwards, without showing an extreme condition, increasing the chances of a continued move north. Keep in mind that the Fed mentioned a hike is approaching and this might generate dollar strength although the initial impulse was bearish for the greenback.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there are no major economic indicators released by either the Euro Zone or the United States, so we expect a day driven mostly by the negative sentiment surrounding the US Dollar and by the technical factors.


GBP/USD

Similar to the euro-dollar pair, this pair had a choppy session ahead of the Fed rate announcement but dollar weakness generated a strong move up which is now threatening resistance.

[Image: NmjZpCo.jpg]

Technical Outlook

It is very likely that we will see more upside movement but it is also important to note that both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are overbought and this might generate a bearish pullback. First support is located at 1.5500 (such a move is less likely), while resistance is located at 1.5675 but before this level can be touched, the mentioned correction is likely to occur.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane will speak today at 11:05 am GMT in Northern Ireland at the Portadown Chambers of Commerce. The speech may bring Pound strength if his attitude is more hawkish than expected but we don’t anticipate major moves.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: MOVING SOUTH: RETRACEMENTS OR REVERSALS?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the bulls gave back most of the gains obtained a day before and the entire session was bearish, following a touch of resistance.

[Image: nLlFgcE.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The rejection at 1.1450 shows that market participants are still optimistic about a Fed rate hike this year and that the US Dollar is still not ready to surrender. If the 50 period Exponential Moving Average can be broken to the downside during the early hours of the day, we expect price to head towards 1.1215 where will probably pause. The oscillators are moving downwards, supporting bearish price action, but a move above 1.1320 will invalidate a bearish scenario and would possibly trigger a move up or a ranging session.

Fundamental Outlook

The euro will be affected today by the Greek Parliamentary Elections held Sunday and the US Dollar will be influenced by the Existing Home Sales, released at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show 5.50M compared with the previous 5.59M (annualized numbers). Higher values suggest a thriving house-market and could bring US Dollar strength, although the extent may be limited.


GBP/USD

Similar to the euro, the Sterling gave back most of the gains triggered by the Fed decision to maintain rates and the pair travelled south for almost the entire duration of Friday’s trading session.

[Image: kRnAVMI.jpg]

Technical Outlook

We expect to see some bullish price action once 1.5500 support is touched, but both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are moving lower, coming from overbought territory and this suggests that we may see an extended move south even if price will bounce slightly higher at the mentioned level. If 1.5500 is breached, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will become the first target, followed by the bullish trend line visible on the chart above but such a move is probably too strong for a quiet day like Monday. 

Fundamental Outlook

The pound-dollar pair will be influenced today just by the U.S. Existing Home Sales and by the technical aspect since the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR PUSHING HARD, BREAKING SUPPORT


EUR/USD


Forex News: The greenback quickly shook off the weakness created by the Fed decision and yesterday we had a bearish session as a result. A small bullish pullback was seen but it found resistance at 1.1320 and the pair started to drop.

[Image: 7UjCkbn.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Now we have confirmed resistance at 1.1320 and the pair is heading strongly towards the support at 1.1215. The bullish trend line visible on the chart above is broken, price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the oscillators are heading south, without being oversold, so all things point towards a break of 1.1215, followed by a move lower. A bullish break of 1.1320 resistance would invalidate such a scenario for the time being.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator of the day is the Euro Zone Consumer Confidence survey released at 2:00 pm GMT. Numbers above zero indicate optimism regarding financial conditions and suggest that consumer spending is likely to increase but for today’s release the expected value is -7 (same as previous). A higher number is beneficial for the single currency but the impact is often mild.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar strengthened against the Pound as well but no substantial advances were made and the pair is still trading above support.

[Image: UOi2u5x.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although yesterday’s trading session was bearish, the resistance at 1.5500 is not yet broken and the pair is still trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so bullish price action can still be expected. Once (and if) these two forms of support are broken, we anticipate a touch of the bullish trend line seen on the chart above.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Public Sector Net Borrowing comes out, showing the amount of debt held by public corporations and the government. A higher value than the forecast 8.7B is detrimental for the Sterling and will probably take the pair lower.
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