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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: THE GREENBACK IS BACK WITH A VENGEANCE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the euro gave back some of the gains as the pair retraced lower after establishing a multi-month high at 1.1713. The US Consumer Confidence survey posted a better than anticipated value, and played an important role to the move south.

[Image: BjGIusH.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is re-testing from above the previously broken resistance located at 1.1450. If this level triggers a bounce higher, it will turn into support and will possibly reject falling prices in the future; also, this would suggest that the bulls are ready to make another attempt to break the high established at 1.1713. Notice that both oscillators are showing strong bearish momentum and are coming down, moving out of overbought. A move below 1.1450 would make the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years) are released at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a change of -0.5% compared with the previous 3.4%. However, the CORE version of the indicator, which excludes transportation items is expected to show an increase from the previous 0.6% to 0.3%. Under normal circumstances, higher than anticipated values strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair breached 1.5800 again but the bulls couldn’t close above the level and a positive US Consumer Confidence survey helped the US Dollar to bring the pair south.

[Image: wEI4YdT.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair made two attempts to break 1.5800 but both resulted in moves lower and now positive U.S. data is strengthening the US Dollar, making us believe that 1.5675 is the next target for the pair. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity of this potential support level so we are dealing with a confluence zone that is likely to push price higher once and if reached.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Bankers’ Association will release the Mortgage Approvals at 8:30 am GMT; the indicator offers insights into the British housing market and can strengthen the Pound if it will show a reading above the forecast 46.0K but the impact is usually low.
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FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN GDP – MORE FUEL TO THE FIRE?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The bulls couldn’t push price higher yesterday and the US Dollar rebounded, taking the pair lower. Price is now below 1.1450 which did not turn into support.

[Image: TbO0xXu.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Most of the gains were erased but the pair is still trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the latest drop could be considered a good opportunity to join the uptrend. However, keep in mind that the oscillators are moving down and show bearish momentum so the current move might extend into the moving average where will probably find support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT a major U.S. indicator is released: the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product. This is the main gauge of overall performance of the economy and a higher change than the anticipated 3.2% (previous 2.3%) could bring US Dollar strength.

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank will hold today the Jackson Hole Symposium that will be attended by central bankers, finance ministers and important figures from across the world. The symposium is closed to the press but participants sometimes talk to journalists during the day. Speeches of the participants can influence the Forex market strongly so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar was strengthened by a positive value of the Durable Goods Orders (as well as the CORE version of the indicator) and the pair dropped for most of yesterday.

[Image: vjfiZXu.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair dropped heavily and breached 1.5500. This level is likely to offer some support and if this is true, today we will see a retracement higher. The chances of a retracement are also increased by the fact that price dropped too fast a big distance and this usually creates some sort of rubber band effect but the overall picture is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases but British representatives will participate in the Jackson Hole Symposium and the pound will react depending on their attitude and matters discussed.
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS SHARPEN THEIR CLAWS, EXTENDING GAINS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar benefited yesterday from a better than expected value of the American Gross Domestic Product and the pair continued its decent for almost the entire day.

[Image: nXAisWL.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair breached the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is now headed towards the potential support located at 1.1215. Here, we are likely to see some form of retracement higher but current bearish momentum is strong, so it is possible that we’ll soon see a break of the mentioned level. If price bounces quickly on 1.1215 and moves above the 50 EMA, it could mean that it is headed towards 1.1450 again, resuming the previous bullish impulse.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Consumer Price Index is released today at 12:00 pm GMT and expected to drop from the previous 0.2% to 0.1%. This is the main gauge of inflation and because the current value is considered too low, a further drop would weaken the euro, allowing the pair to travel south. The Jackson Hole Symposium will enter its second day so sharp and unexpected movement can still occur.


GBP/USD

US Dollar strength was seen against the pound as well yesterday and the pair continued to drop heavily, breaking 1.5500 support without any real difficulty and returning just briefly for a re-test.

[Image: 9uWxlVa.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bearish move is overextended as price travelled too fast for too long, so we anticipate a retracement higher but the current drop might extend into the support at 1.5330. Note that both oscillators are oversold and this will increase the chances of a bullish pullback but a lot will depend on the British economic data that is released today.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Second Estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product (year over year) is released and anticipated to show a change of 2.6%, same as the previous release. Robust numbers for the GDP show a thriving economy which usually means a strong currency so the Pound will probably react strongly to the release, especially if the actual value is different than the forecast.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION AND THE FATE OF THE EURO


EUR/USD


Forex News: The German Preliminary CPI released Friday showed small improvements in inflation and the euro reacted by edging slightly higher before dropping below the support at 1.1215, keeping the pair on a bearish path.

[Image: Crfwwga.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After the initial touch of 1.1215 the pair retraced higher and found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The drop that followed, took price below 1.1215 and it looks like the current move can extend into 1.1100. If the pair will reach this destination, we expect it to pull back higher, considering that the Stochastic has crossed bullish in oversold territory, but this scenario will depend on the European inflation data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the European Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate is released, showing changes in inflation which has been stagnating for a long while; a lower value than the expected 0.2% will most likely hurt the euro, allowing the pair to drop further. Keep an eye on the CORE version of the indicator (excludes food, energy, tobacco and alcohol from calculation), released at the same time.


GBP/USD

The Second Estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product, released Friday, didn’t show any improvement so the Pound didn’t strengthen and the pair continued to drop, almost reaching 1.5330 support.

[Image: mCVMqNo.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.5330 is important for medium term outlook and we expect a bounce higher around this level. Supporting this bias is also the position of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index which are both oversold for a few days; however, the short term bias is clearly bearish and this means that after retracements, the bearish movement should resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The British banks will be closed today, celebrating Summer Bank Holiday so there are no economic indicators scheduled for release and the pair may suffer from irregular volatility and choppy movement.
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS STILL IN ATTACK-MODE, BULLS GET STRONGER


EUR/USD


Forex News: European inflation remained flat as showed by yesterday’s CPI release (forecast 0.2%, actual 0.2%) and the pair moved below 1.1215 after a brief retracement higher.

[Image: 9M4JYJK.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although it slowed down, price is on a downwards path and our bias is bearish as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The next potential support and destination is 1.1100 but the Stochastic is just coming out of oversold, meaning that we may see bullish price action in the form of retracements. Also, price has reached a bullish trend line that is likely to offer support, pushing it higher; a break of this trend line would make a touch of 1.1100 more viable.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Manufacturing PMI is released today at 2:00 pm GMT, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business and economic conditions. The expected figure (52.6) is very close to the previous (52.7) so if this forecast comes true, the event will probably go mostly unnoticed but higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

British banks were closed yesterday so the Pound wasn’t affected by any news releases but US Dollar strength was seen especially during the second part of the day and the pair moved lower, without establishing a new low.

[Image: BCdI2fn.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Bearish price action picked up yesterday afternoon and erased a bullish retracement but the support at 1.5330 was not threatened. The Stochastic cleared its oversold condition and the Relative Strength Index is still close to oversold so we anticipate that a touch of 1.5330 will result in a bounce higher and that the level will not be broken on the first attempt. However, the bias is bearish so a break of 1.5330 is likely to happen eventually.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is released at 8:30 am GMT but no change is anticipated from the previous 51.9. Same as in the case of the American indicator we talked about earlier, higher values are beneficial for the currency but its impact depends on the gap between forecast and actual numbers.
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FOREX NEWS: FIRST LOOK AT U.S. JOBS DATA – FIRST MAJOR UPSET OF THE WEEK?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday we saw a clear bounce at the bullish trend line and price moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the climb proved to be just a retracement as price quickly returned below the line.

[Image: b2yrSOM.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Now that a bullish pullback is complete, the bears will most likely make another attempt to break the uptrend line and to take price below 1.1215. If these forms of support will reject price again, then we might see an extended move north, into the potential resistance at 1.1450, otherwise 1.1100 is the next destination. Today we get a first look into U.S. jobs data and this will affect the US Dollar’s bias.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the Non-Farm Employment Change. The report tries to mimic the Government data that comes out 2 days later and usually has a strong impact on the greenback, so more jobs than the forecast 204K (previous 185K) will take the pair lower.


GBP/USD

The Pound suffered yesterday from soft Manufacturing data, allowing the pair to drop below support. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI did not affect much the Dollar, which continued to strengthen against the Pound. 

[Image: N9HeFoX.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After a few attempts to break 1.5330, the bears finally succeeded and now the pair is trading below this support level. The Stochastic is crossed downwards and not oversold but the Relative Strength Index is still close to oversold and is showing bullish divergence (price is making lower lows and the indicator is making higher lows). This suggests that we might be dealing with a false break so if price will move above 1.5330, we are likely to see a stronger retracement to the upside.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the last Purchasing Managers’ Index in this week’s series is released: the Construction PMI. The expected value is 57.6, higher than the previous 57.1 and higher numbers can strengthen the Pound but the impact is often mild, especially if the actual number is close to the forecast.
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FOREX NEWS: MARIO DRAGHI PREPARES HEAVY-DUTY EURO SWINGS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had a slow day yesterday, with a bearish bias although the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed that less jobs were created than analysts’ expected. Weak euro bulls weren’t able to capitalize on the disappointing US data and the pair moved slightly lower.

[Image: mQXyPbO.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The move south seen yesterday did not break 1.1215 support or the bullish trend line but despite poor US jobs data, the pair continued to drop, showing that the dollar is still stronger than the euro and making us anticipate a break of the support types mentioned earlier. The Stochastic has crossed downwards and the Relative Strength Index shows a descending slope as well, favouring a drop.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB announces today at 11:45 am GMT the interest rate which is not anticipated to change from the current 0.05%, so the event will not create huge moves (unless a surprise change), but strong movement is expected during Mario Draghi’s press conference scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The ECB President will read a prepared speech and then he will answer journalists’ unscripted questions; this second part of the press conference usually creates heavy-duty moves on the euro, so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

Pound bulls didn’t manage to stage a proper pullback yesterday and the pair remained below 1.5330, but didn’t make serious advances south. Overall we experienced a choppy trading session, especially on the lower time frames.

[Image: tp1swWv.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Now that 1.5330 support is broken, the bears will aim for the support zone around 1.5200 but we expect a retracement higher very soon, mostly because the Relative Strength Index has been moving very close to its 30 level for a relatively long period, with only brief climbs. Also, the chances of a climb are increased by the fact that the Stochastic is entering oversold for the second time and no clear bullish pullback was seen. However, keep in mind that the overall bias is bearish so moves down are not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about business conditions in the services sector. Higher numbers than the anticipated 57.6 (previous 57.4) can strengthen the Pound but the impact is often mild.
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FOREX NEWS: ADDING FUEL TO THE FIRE: US NON-FARM PAYROLLS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The European Central Bank kept the interest rate unchanged as expected but Draghi’s press conference generated heavy losses for the euro. The ECB President lowered growth and inflation expectations and hinted that the bank will remain on high alert.

[Image: zgxELZn.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The dovish stance of the ECB President is likely to bring further euro weakness during the days to come. The bullish trend line and the horizontal support at 1.1215 are clearly broken now and 1.1100 is threatened. After brief retracements to the upside, we expect a break of the mentioned support and an extended move towards 1.1000.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important U.S. jobs report is released today at 12:30 pm GMT: the Non-Farm Payrolls. The indicator shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and usually has a huge impact on the dollar, with more jobs strengthening it and the opposite for fewer jobs. The anticipated number is 217K, close to the previous 215K.


GBP/USD

The pound weakened yesterday as the Services PMI showed a disappointing value, missing analysts’ forecast by a long stretch. This generated another bearish day, with the pair trading below 1.5330.

[Image: hzfnEfu.jpg]

Technical Outlook

A retracement is long overdue as the oscillators have spent another day in oversold territory, but now the level at 1.5330 has turned into resistance and can reject climbing price. The dollar and implicitly the pair will be heavily affected by the U.S. jobs data so the direction will be dictated by this event.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important news releases so traders will focus on the Non-Farm Payrolls release and on the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
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FOREX NEWS: SLOW MONDAY AS U.S. BANKS CLOSE FOR LABOR DAY


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s headline was the NFP release which showed that fewer jobs were created during the previous month than analysts expected. This generated a huge spike up, which was quickly reversed, mostly because the US Unemployment Rate dropped from 5.3% to 5.1%.

[Image: HemC07d.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Movement was choppy Friday and price bounced at 1.1100 after a second attempt to break this level. These failed attempts and the fact that the oscillators are starting to move upwards make us believe that today we will see bullish price action but it should be noted that the euro is still weak from Mario Draghi’s comments and dovish attitude, so the extent of a climb should be limited. Resistance is located at 1.1215 and support at 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States celebrate Labor Day, so banks will be closed and no economic indicators will be released. The German Industrial Production numbers come out at 6:00 am GMT with an anticipated change of 1.2% from the previous -1.4%. Higher values are beneficial for the euro but the indicator often lacks strong impact.


GBP/USD

After a bullish spike generated by the worse than expected NFP, the pair continued to move south, with a major role being played by the drop in the U.S. Unemployment Rate.

[Image: MieWYvK.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair continues to move downwards despite multiple oversold signals. A pullback against the main direction is still expected but the Pound is weak so even if this retracement occurs, we don’t expect it to be strong. First potential resistance is located at 1.5200 while support sits around 1.5100 but we don’t expect the pair to touch support before a retracement occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

No major macroeconomic indicator were scheduled for today by the United Kingdom and US banks are closed, thus we expect a day with irregular volatility.
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FOREX NEWS: EURO BREAKS OUT OF THE RANGE, POUND FINALLY SHOWS STRENGTH


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday price action was choppy and lacked volatility as U.S. banks were closed celebrating Labor Day and no other major events took place.

[Image: PtFZj5p.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s movement doesn’t change the picture much; 1.1215 remains resistance and 1.1100 is support. Our bias remains bearish overall but it’s very possible to see an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average or the resistance mentioned earlier. A downtrend resumption may be signalled first by the oscillators curving downwards.

Fundamental Outlook

We have another slow day ahead of us, with the Revised Euro Zone Gross Domestic Product being the only notable release. The expected value is 0.3%, same as the previous and the scheduled time is 9:00 am GMT. Although this version if the GDP is the least important, a higher value is considered beneficial for the euro.


GBP/USD

A much needed bullish retracement finally occurred yesterday and the pair moved above 1.5200. Almost the entire day was controlled by the bulls but the overall picture is still bearish.

[Image: d0P2OC4.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Considering the position of the oscillators and the lack of a proper retracement since the pair started to drop, the current move north may extend into the resistance at 1.5330 or into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The moving average will descend below the mentioned resistance so it will become the first zone of interest. This would make a good place for more sellers to enter the market or to reopen their positions, thus generating another drop.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major news releases from the United Kingdom, so the pair’s direction will be mainly decided by price action.
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