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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: GREECE’S HOPES HANG BY A THREAD


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the euro clearly outperformed the dollar on the back of increased optimism regarding the Greek crisis. Finally a solid bailout plan was presented by the Greek Government and it seems that an accord will be reached soon; however, opinions are still divided and some voices asked for more commitment from Greece.

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Technical Outlook

The euro got a boost and is now trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.1100. Price action is still under the influence of the outcome of Greek talks so we expect the technical aspect to remain secondary but if Tsipras’ proposals are accepted we are likely to see further upside movement and euro strength. The levels to watch are 1.1100 as potential support and 1.1280 as first resistance

Fundamental Outlook

Today European Leaders meet to continue discussions regarding the conditions of the Greek bailout so it’s possible to see irregular volatility and sharp moves. Caution is recommended throughout the day.


GBP/USD

Similar to the euro, the pound strengthened against the greenback and moved all the way back to 1.5500 where it paused, deciding the next direction.

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Technical Outlook

The pair encountered a confluence zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance level at 1.5500. Although last week ended slightly above the mentioned level, the break cannot be considered true just yet and we might see a drop form here. On the other hand, if price quickly starts to move to the upside, we are likely to see increased buying pressure and an extended move towards 1.5700.

Fundamental Outlook

Although the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases, the pair’s direction will be influenced by the result of Greek talks so strong movement is a distinct possibility.
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FOREX NEWS: “AGREEMENT!”


EUR/USD


Forex News: An agreement – named by some “Agreekment” – has been finally reached in the Greek debt crisis but the political environment is still shaky because now the parliaments must approve the conditions of the bailout, which are considered too harsh by some Greek officials.

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Technical Outlook

After a brief climb the pair started to move south probably because the conditions imposed by the European leaders are considered too drastic. Price is now trading inside 1.1100 and 1.1000 with a bearish momentum but the next days will be still under the influence of the Greek developments. First support is located at 1.1000 and from a technical point of view, this is the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is released and anticipated to decrease from the previous 31.5 to 30.6. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 275 German analysts and investors who offer their economic outlook for the next 6 months. Usually a higher than expected number strengthens the euro, suggesting optimism and taking the pair higher.

The U.S. Retail Sales are released later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT. Sales made at a retail level represent an important part of overall economic activity, hence a higher change than the expected 0.4% can be beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair had a choppy session yesterday, first moving above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and then returning in close vicinity of the level at 1.5500.

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Technical Outlook

On a four hour chart we can see a candle with a long upper wick, which is known as a pin bar and suggests rejection. On top of this clue, we have the Stochastic which has reached the 80 level, suggesting an overbought condition so we might see a drop in today’s session. For this to happen, price needs to break soon the support zone created by the moving average and by the horizontal level at 1.5500

Fundamental Outlook

British inflation data will come out at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Consumer Price Index. The expected change is 0.1%, same as previous but a higher percentage can strengthen the Pound. The U.S. retail sales data will have a direct impact on the pair as well.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. DOLLAR HIT BY WEAK RETAIL SALES DATA. EUROZONE STILL IN LIMBO


EUR/USD


Forex News: U.S. Retail Sales showed a surprising drop yesterday, suggesting economic slowdown and weakening the US Dollar as a result. However, the pair is still ruled by indecision and most moves are quickly reversed.

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Technical Outlook

After bouncing higher off of 1.1000 support, the pair is now showing bearish rejection once again. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average has pushed price lower and it looks like the next move will be a break of 1.1000 support, considering that the euro is struggling among uncertainty surrounding the Greek crisis. The Stochastic is curving upwards in oversold territory and this is a bullish sign which might hinder further downside advances.

Fundamental Outlook

Eurogroup members will meet today in Brussels, discussing the Greek situation so we may see some strong movement, depending on the decisions made during the meetings. On the dollar side, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee at 2:00 pm GMT. Members of the Committee will ask unscripted questions and the dollar may react strongly to Yellen’s answers so caution is advised.


GBP/USD

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney commented yesterday that the time for a rate hike is moving closer, sending the pair on a rally above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart.

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Technical Outlook

The bullish sentiment generated by Carney’s comments is likely to extend the current climb into the first potential resistance which is located at 1.5700. If the move doesn’t continue, it would be a clear sign that the bulls cannot recover and that a drop is next, with the first destination being 1.5500 again.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 8:30 am GMT British unemployment data is released in the form of the Claimant Count Change. The indicator shows changes in the number of people who filled for unemployment benefits and a higher number than the expected -8.9K is considered detrimental for the Pound. Janet Yellen’s testimony later in the day will have a direct impact on the pair.
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FOREX NEWS: DRAGHI HOLDS PRESS CONFERENCE, YELLEN TESTIFIES ON MONETARY POLICY – VOLATILITY GUARANTEED


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair broke support as the US Dollar strengthened due to better than expected economic data and especially the second part of the session was characterized by strong movement.

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Technical Outlook

Following the rejection seen at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair dropped below the support located at 1.1000 and for now our outlook is bearish. We consider this latest break of support to be a real one, which will most likely bring in additional sellers, eventually heading towards 1.0820 key support. The technical aspect will be overshadowed today by the ECB interest rate decision and by Mario Draghi’s press conference.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:45 am GMT the European Central Bank will announce their rate decision but no change is expected from the current 0.05%. ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference at 12:30 pm GMT and will answer journalists’ questions regarding the rate and future monetary policy. Usually this press conference is a major market mover and often creates irregular volatility so caution is recommended.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee at 2:00 pm GMT. The topic is monetary policy so the movement created might be strong. Again, caution is recommended until the testimony is over.


GBP/USD

Yesterday we saw that more people than expected asked for unemployment related benefits in the United Kingdom and the Pound felt the consequences, weakening against an already strong dollar.

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Technical Outlook

The move south comes as a retracement to the recent move up so the extent of the drop should be limited. An encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is likely to trigger a bullish bounce but take note of the position of the two oscillators which are close to overbought; this increases the chances of a touch of the moving average but does not exclude further upside action, possibly into 1.5700.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule the release of any major macroeconomic indicators today so price action will be driven by the technical aspect and the U.S. events.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION TO PUT THE US DOLLAR BACK ON TRACK FOR A 2015 RATE HIKE


EUR/USD


Forex News: As expected the European Central Bank kept the rate unchanged at record lows and the pair made another move towards the support at 1.0820. Yesterday’s session was controlled by the bears but we saw a bounce higher in its second part.

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Technical Outlook

The pair is still headed towards the support at 1.0820 but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are both oversold and this means that we can expect a bullish pullback before support is threatened. First resistance area is located at 1.1000 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but we don’t expect price to reach this zone.

Fundamental Outlook

U.S. inflation data is released today at 12:30 pm GMT in the form of the Consumer Price Index. A big change is expected from the previous 0.00% to 0.10%; if the actual value surpasses analysts’ expectations, we are likely to see US Dollar strength.

At 2:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release the Consumer Confidence survey which is expected to show a figure of 96.0, almost unchanged from the previous 96.1. Because consumer confidence is tightly correlated with consumer spending, higher numbers are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s trading session was pretty slow and overall bearish, with no special developments. This was mostly due to the fact that no major indicators were released.

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Technical Outlook

The pair completed at bearish pullback which touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but there is still underlying bullish pressure so we expect a bounce higher from here. The first resistance and target remains 1.5700 but a move below the moving average would invalidate this scenario, making 1.5500 the next destination. The Stochastic is coming out of overbought, with bearish momentum, supporting a move lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. releases are the only potential market movers because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any macroeconomic indicators for today.
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FOREX NEWS: TECHNICAL WARNING – KEY SUPPORT THREATENED


EUR/USD


A weak euro allowed the US Dollar to take the pair lower for the entire duration of Friday’s trading session. Support was almost touched but the market closed before it could be threatened.

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Technical Outlook

Today we expect a test of the support located at 1.0820 but although price is moving south with good momentum, a bounce higher is very possible considering the position of the oscillators. Both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are warning about an oversold condition so even if a break occurs, a retracement higher is likely to happen before substantial moves lower can take place.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 6:00 am GMT the German Producer Price Index is released, showing changes in the price charged by producers for their goods. The indicator has inflationary implications but the impact is usually low, especially if the actual value is close to analysts’ prediction, which is a drop of -0.1% compared with the previous 0.0%.


GBP/USD

Friday’s trading session was choppy for the pound-dollar pair and price action was characterized by sharp reversals on the lower time frames; overall no major advances were made.

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Technical Outlook

A double top has been formed at 1.5675 which has become the first resistance. This is a bearish pattern which suggests that a move lower is in order but the 50 period Exponential Moving Average also rejected price Friday. Currently price is trapped between support and resistance and a break of either 1.5675 or the moving average may trigger an extended move in that direction. Considering the double top, we favor the bearish side as long as price remains below 1.5675.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases for the day so price direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: KEY SUPPORT TOUCHED. BULLS STEP IN FOR A REVERSAL


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair had a slow day, mostly because the fundamental scene was calm. The German Producer Price Index came out with a value close to analysts’ expectations so the event went mostly unnoticed.

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Technical Outlook

It is clear now that the level at 1.0820 is rejecting price higher but this doesn’t mean that a break is out of the question. In fact we expect price to move below the mentioned level today, but an alternate scenario would be a climb into the minor resistance located at 1.0915. Such a climb would probably clear the oversold condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index and would also make future moves lower more probable.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States and the European Union did not schedule any news releases for today so we expect another session ruled by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Yesterday price action was mostly controlled by the bears but no major advances were made and although we saw a move below the moving average, a clear break didn’t occur.

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Technical Outlook

Our bias remains bearish, anticipating a touch of 1.5500. The Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are pointing downwards and price has touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average several times without bouncing significantly higher. This scenario will remain valid as long as the pair is trading below 1.5675.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Public Sector Net Borrowing is the day’s only notable indicator and it’s released at 8:30 am GMT, with an expected value of 8.6 billion Pounds. The indicator tracks the difference between spending and income for the central government and a positive number shows deficit so it is usually detrimental for the currency.
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FOREX NEWS: GREECE IN SPOTLIGHT AS THE PARLIAMENT VOTES ON AUSTERITY MEASURES


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had a bullish day yesterday, following a bounce at 1.0820 support. Overall we saw a single direction for the day, without major whipsaws.

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Technical Outlook

A major role in yesterday’s climb was played by the oversold condition of the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index but also by the strength of 1.0820 support. Now the pair is testing 1.0915 resistance and we can notice that the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity, heading down. This means that this confluence zone can easily push price lower if it is not broken decisively in the first attempt. A bounce lower will have 1.0820 as first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Existing Home Sales numbers are released today at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 5.40M compared with the previous 5.35M (annualized values). If more houses are sold, the economy is usually thriving and this has a positive impact on the US Dollar.

The Greek Government will vote today whether they accept or not a second package of conditions in order to receive further financial aid. The exact time of the vote is not known but the result can have a strong impact on the euro.


GBP/USD

The Pound had a slow day, with choppy price action. The Public Sector Net Borrowing matched analysts’ expectations and the event did not create a lot of volatility.

[Image: q6XUJcH.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the pair remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, movement is slow and inconsistent, without clear direction but we still anticipate a move into 1.5500 which will be probably followed by a bounce higher. If the pair picks up speed and breaks support decisively, it is likely that more sellers will join and take price even lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will release at 8:30 am GMT the breakdown of the votes on the latest interest rate decision. This is a good opportunity for traders to see if any of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee have changed their stance on a potential rate hike but usually the event doesn’t create strong impact unless one or more members had a change of opinion.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR RECOVERS LOSSES, BREAKS SUPPORT


EUR/USD


Forex News: Bullish price action continued yesterday and the pair moved above immediate resistance; however, after signs of rejection, price returned below resistance, proving the break was false.

[Image: S7vpAou.jpg]

Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the Greek vote results are still not known and these could have an effect on price direction. Nevertheless, the pair showed signs of rejection at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and moved below 1.0915, suggesting that we are going to see another attempt to break 1.0820. The oversold condition of the two oscillators was cleared by the latest climb and even more, now they are headed south, supporting a move lower.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is another slow day for both the euro and the dollar, with the only notable indicator being the U.S. Unemployment Claims released at 12:30 and expected to show a number of 279K, close to last week’s 281K. Less unemployed people suggest a thriving economy, with increased levels of consumer spending and a potentially stronger currency.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound bulls took price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, proving the down move was exhausted.

[Image: 5CkAhln.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is still trading below 1.5675 but lacks volatility and clear direction so, although the latest impulse is bullish we cannot predict a continuation or a break of the mentioned resistance. However, if a touch occurs, we expect a bounce lower into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A break of 1.5675 should be confirmed by a re-test before it can be deemed real.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales numbers come out today at 8:30 am GMT, with an expected change of 0.4% compared with the previous 0.2%. Because the retail sector represents a major part of overall consumer spending, which in turn accounts for a hefty part of the entire economic activity, a higher than anticipated change could strengthen the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS STRENGTH ACROSS THE BOARD. EURO STILL STUBBORN


EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action was mostly bullish yesterday and the pair climbed again above resistance. The Greek Parliament passed the vote on the bailout program, a fact which probably strengthened the euro.

[Image: mnz8B4j.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved quickly above 1.0915 and reached 1.1000 before retracing lower but now both oscillators are in the upper part of their respective range and this suggests that a drop will follow. If 1.1000 can be broken, more buyers will join the short term uptrend but the extent of the climb should be limited. To the downside the 50 period Exponential moving Average represents the first support.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 7:30 am GMT the German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released, with an anticipated value of 52.1, a small increase from the previous 51.9. This is a leading indicator of economic health and usually higher numbers are beneficial for the euro.

Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. New Home Sales numbers come out, showing the annualized number of houses sold during the previous month. The forecast is 543K and higher numbers show increased economic activity, thus a stronger greenback.


GBP/USD

British Retail Sales disappointed by showing a lower than expected value and the Pound reacted accordingly, weakening and allowing the pair to move into support.

[Image: hGyQEHh.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After almost touching 1.5675, the pair dropped sharply towards 1.5500, breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average in the process. Now we have a triple top at 1.5675, which is a strong bearish pattern and the oscillators have started to move south with good momentum. All these factors suggest that a break of 1.5500 is likely to happen today but a bounce higher could mean the start of a ranging period.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for the day so the focus will be on the technical aspect and on the US housing data.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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