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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: U.S. DOLLAR FLEXES MUSCLES AS BULLS RUN OUT OF STEAM


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday on the back of encouraging U.S. Retail Sales numbers and the pair descended into dynamic support as a result; overall we had a bearish session.

[Image: y7REcR0.jpg]

Technical Outlook

At the moment the pair is testing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average from above; both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are moving downwards, supporting an extended move south. If the moving average can be surpassed, we expect price to move into the support located at 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Producer Price Index comes out, showing the change in prices charged by producers for their goods. A higher price will be eventually passed on to the consumer and that’s why this indicator has inflationary implications; higher values than the forecast 0.4% usually strengthen the US Dollar.

The other important event of the day is the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 91.3 compared with the previous 90.7. Consumer sentiment is correlated with consumer spending which in turn represents a major part of overall economic activity so higher values are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The move above resistance couldn’t be sustained by the bulls and price moved lower yesterday, also helped by the American Retail Sales release.

[Image: pNb9liB.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After the move below 1.5500, price returned to test the level again. We are now dealing with a classic bounce-or-break scenario and we consider that another move above the said level will most likely mean that price will continue higher. On the other hand, a bounce lower is likely to extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a 4 hour chart.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow day again, in terms of economic releases, so price direction will be mainly affected by the U.S. events and by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: EURO TRAPPED INSIDE TIGHT RANGE; DRAGHI’S TESTIMONY TRIGGERS BREAKOUTS


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s price action was choppy and we saw a move below the moving average, followed by a sharp reversal. Trading was difficult, especially on the lower time frames

[Image: 3APOkgu.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is stuck in a tight range represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.1280. When one of these boundaries is broken, we expect price to continue in that direction but the Fed meeting scheduled Wednesday is likely to generate more of this choppy movement because usually before a major event, traders tend to hold back, waiting to see the outcome.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament. The topic will be monetary policy, so the euro will be strongly affected, depending on the president’s stance and attitude.

The dollar’s movement will be influenced by the U.S. Industrial Production numbers released at 1:15 pm GMT; the indicator shows the change in the total value of goods produced by the industrial sector and values above the expected 0.2% can strengthen the greenback although the indicator usually has a mild impact.


GBP/USD

The Pound finished last week on a bullish note, with the pair closing above key support. Early during the day price direction was not clear but the N.Y. session brought the biggest movement.

[Image: ngotfFW.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price moved above 1.5500 resistance in what seems to be a true break of the level. However, it’s very possible that today we will see a move lower, which will test the recently broken level but overall our bias remains bullish as long as the pair is trading above 1.5500 and the oscillators are not showing extreme conditions. First resistance is located at 1.5700.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so unless surprises occur, price direction will be decided by the technical factors and by the U.S. indicators.
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FOREX NEWS: EURO-DOLLAR: A STORM IN THE MAKING


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro – dollar pair remained mostly unchanged yesterday although U.S. Industrial Production data was worse than anticipated. Draghi’s speech didn’t have the expected impact and the market showed just a mild reaction

[Image: y0oZnLc.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price remained very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and trading was mostly flat yesterday. This means that the next direction is hard to anticipate but also that a strong move is building up pressure. Until the expected breakout occurs our bias is neutral; the first resistance is located at 1.1280 and support at 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released at 9:00 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 275 German investors and analysts about a 6 month outlook for the economy. Usually this survey triggers strong movement and numbers above the forecast 37.5 can strengthen the euro.

The US Dollar will be affected by the Building Permits which are released at 12:30 pm GMT and are expected to show a value of 1.11M. Numbers that surpass expectations suggest a thriving economy, especially in the construction sector.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair returned to test the level at 1.5500 and then bounced higher in the afternoon, turning previous resistance into support.

[Image: HV2Bdl3.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Now the level at 1.5500 has turned into support and we can expect the pair to continue higher from here; however, the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are bearish, hinting that moves lower can still occur. If 1.5500 is broken, the first interest zone is located near the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and to the upside, first minor resistance is located around 1.5600.

Fundamental Outlook

British inflation is the day’s main market mover: the Consumer Price Index (main gauge of inflation) is released at 8:30 am GMT and is expected to show a change of 0.1% compared to the previous -0.1%. Higher values usually strengthen the Pound and drive the pair higher.
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FOREX NEWS: FED MEETING STORMS THE MARKETS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro received a blow yesterday from a worse than expected German ZEW Economic Sentiment and the pair dropped as a result.

[Image: oTmPFUM.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price moved below 1.1280 after initially climbing above the level in the early parts of yesterday’s trading session; this shows euro weakness and hints about a drop. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first barrier that needs to be surpassed by the bears, followed by the support at 1.1100; however, today’s price action will be driven by the Fed events and we are likely to see choppy movement until these are released.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a big day ahead as the Fed will announce their interest rate decision at 6:00 pm GMT and Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a Press Conference half an hour later. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.25% but any hints about a rumored September hike will most likely generate huge movement. The Fed will also issue a statement outlining the reasons that stood behind the rate decision and the FOMC will release their Economic Projections for the next 2 years period. This cluster of events will have a deep impact on the US Dollar not only today but also for the days to come.


GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened yesterday after an initial drop and it seems most traders are uncertain about their position until the Fed makes its stance known; overall the session was bullish.

[Image: o3Fp02e.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The minor resistance at 1.5600 was surpassed yesterday, making 1.5700 the next target of the pair and tilting the balance in favor of the bulls. However, this balance is very delicate because today important news releases are scheduled for both the Pound and the US Dollar. We expect a session mostly influenced by the fundamental side, with the technical being secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 pm GMT the Claimant Count is released, showing changes in the number of people who applied for unemployment related aid in the United Kingdom during the previous month. Lower numbers than the anticipated -12.5K are usually beneficial for the Pound because lower levels of unemployment show a thriving economy and possibly increased consumer spending in the near future. At the same time the Bank of England will make public the votes on the latest interest rate; this is a good opportunity for traders to see if any of the MPC members have changed their stance regarding a rate hike.
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STRENGTH FADES AWAY AND FED’S STANCE IS NOT HELPING


EUR/USD


Forex News: Before the FOMC release, movement was choppy and no solid advances were made. The US interest rate remained unchanged and Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave no clear hints about the next hike, offering just confusing statements.

[Image: czDTgVh.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After bouncing again at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the pair jumped on the back of Yellen’s comments and inherent US Dollar weakness. Now the resistance at 1.1280 is broken and we expect the current move to extend possibly into the key resistance at 1.1450. The oscillators are not overbought and the Dollar bulls don’t seem to have an immediate answer.

Fundamental Outlook

Today American inflation takes center stage as the Consumer Price Index is released at 12:30 pm GMT. The Fed is closely watching inflation levels to decide when the next rate hike is due, thus making the CPI a very important indicator; higher values than the expected change of 0.5% will most likely strengthen the US Dollar, taking the pair lower.

Euro area finance ministers and other personalities will attend the Eurogroup Meetings, discussing the Greek debt crisis; this can have a strong impact on euro pairs so caution is recommended throughout the day.


GBP/USD

British wages showed a 2.7% increase yesterday, driving the Pound higher early during yesterday’s session. The Dollar weakness created by the Fed events triggered another sharp rise.

[Image: TpHm1tW.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the pair broke above 1.5800, we expect some sort of retracement which will re-test the recently broken level. This is backed by the fact that both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are overbought but also because yesterday price traveled a long distance and usually after such a move a retracement is due.

Fundamental Outlook

British Retail Sales are released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to post a change of 0.0% compared to last month’s 1.2%. Such a drop would weaken the Pound considering that sales made at retail levels represent a major part of overall consumer spending.
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FOREX NEWS: THE US DOLLAR: A DEER IN THE LIGHTS OF A SPEEDING CAR?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair continued its climb yesterday on the back of decreased chances of a U.S. rate hike in September but also because the American Consumer Price Index failed to meet analysts’ expectations, further weakening the US Dollar.

[Image: SMWI6UD.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although we had a bullish day, the key resistance at 1.1450 wasn’t reached and now the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are getting close to overbought territory. This doesn’t mean that 1.1450 cannot be reached but the chances of a reversal or a deeper retracement have increased; short-to-medium term bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

European finance ministers will gather today for the ECOFIN Meetings; usually the event is closed to the press but sometimes participants talk to journalists during the day and this can bring surges of volatility. Other than this, the day lacks major releases for both the euro and the greenback.


GBP/USD

British Retail Sales posted a better than expected value, which combined with disappointing U.S. data extended the gains of the Pound and generated a bullish day.

[Image: XAOVRyL.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The recent climb is overextended as shown by the daily chart and by the four hour chart (the oscillators are overbought on both these time frames) so we expect price to return towards the level at 1.5800. An overbought condition of the oscillators is not a sure indication of reversal but it makes further climbs more difficult. However, keep in mind that the current bias is bullish so we might see another push north.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Public Sector Net Borrowing is released at 8:30 am GMT and is the only notable indicator for the Pound; it shows the amount of debt held by the UK public sector (a positive number means budget deficit and a negative number shows a surplus) and lower numbers are beneficial for the Pound. Today’s expected value is 10.2B (pounds) while the previous was 6.0B.
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FOREX NEWS: TO GREXIT OR NOT TO GREXIT?


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday we saw a bearish retracement followed by a climb which lacked strong momentum. Overall no major advances were made.

[Image: HuPHfqP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price came in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and then bounced higher but if this move doesn’t continue today, we expect the pair to move below 1.1280. First resistance is still located at 1.1450 but throughout the day the pair’s movement will be strongly affected by the Euro Summit and the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

A solution wasn’t found so far to the Greek debt issue but today another effort will be made as Eurozone leaders, including ECB President Mario Draghi and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde meet for another round of discussions. Caution is recommended throughout the day or at least until a solution is agreed upon.


GBP/USD

Friday the advances of the Pound paused and we seven saw bearish price action but the pair remained above support.

[Image: k9usXuf.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price is likely to remain between 1.5800 support and 1.5930 minor resistance for most part of the day but keep in mind that Greek talks will probably have a strong impact on the Pound-Dollar pair as well. The Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are long overbought on a four hour chart as well as on a daily chart so we slightly favor the downside.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases today and the US Dollar will be influenced by the Existing Home Sales numbers scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to post an increase to 5.29M from the previous 5.04M. Higher numbers suggest a thriving economy and usually strengthen the greenback.
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FOREX NEWS: GREEK SOLUTION IN SIGHT? EURO GETTING READY TO JUMP


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday advances were made towards a solution to the Greek debt crisis but the deal wasn’t finalized. However, it is thought that the matter might be solved later this week so probably we didn’t see the biggest moves yet.

[Image: Bgvjf20.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Because a clear solution wasn’t reached, the Euro-Dollar pair moved without clear direction. For the moment we have a lower high on a four hour chart and this means that a move south might be next. If this is the case, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first target and support for the pair, while a break of the minor trend line will open the door for a touch of 1.1450. If substantial Greek developments hit the news, the technical aspect will become secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT, FOMC member Jerome Powell will deliver a speech, and will potentially offer more hints about the Fed’s views on the next rate hike; depending on what he says, the greenback may respond strongly so use caution if trading during his speech. The US Durable Goods Orders (goods with a live expectancy of at least 3 years) are released at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a drop of -0.6% compared to last month’s -0.2%; lower numbers usually have a negative impact on the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Overall the Pound had a bearish session yesterday, moving into the support at 1.5800 as part of an anticipated retracement.

[Image: S7cXLh8.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The potential support level at 1.5800 is currently tested, with both oscillators descending after a long period spent in overbought territory. If support is breached, the move is likely to extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but keep in mind that from a medium term perspective we are in an uptrend thus bullish action is still a clear possibility.

Fundamental Outlook

The CBI Industrial Order Expectations survey is released at 10:00 am GMT and although this is 
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FOREX NEWS: GREEK DEBT IN LIMBO. THE EURO FEELS THE CONSEQUENCES


EUR/USD


Forex News: The euro was weakened yesterday by more stalling in the Greek discussions and the US Dollar showed signs of strength although the Durable Goods Orders disappointed, thus generating a strong bearish day.

[Image: SDja7Dr.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.1280 were broken decisively yesterday. As long as price remains below these technical levels, we expect the current move to continue and 1.1100 to be reached soon. Any new developments regarding the Greek crisis will have a strong impact on the euro and implicitly on the euro-dollar pair.

Fundamental Outlook

The German IFO Business Climate survey is scheduled for release at 8:00 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 108.2 compared with last month’s 108.5. This survey is derived from a large sample of about 7,000 businesses and tries to rate the relative level of business conditions in Germany, thus a higher value is considered bullish for the euro.

The United States will release the Final version of their Gross Domestic Product at 12:30 pm GMT. Although this is the least important version out of the three (Advance, Preliminary and Final), a higher value that the forecast -0.2% can strengthen the greenback considerably.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro-Dollar, the Cable descended for most of yesterday’s trading session, moving below 1.5800. On the lower time frames price action was choppy during the first part of yesterday.

[Image: VSJlLhb.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair reached an important support represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is in close vicinity of 1.5700 level. The current zone is very important for medium term movement because a break would suggest that the uptrend is over and that further downside movement will follow. For now, first potential resistance is located at 1.5800.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for the day so price direction will be determined by the technical aspect and by the U.S. GDP release.
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FOREX NEWS: EUROZONE SHAKEN, THE SINGLE CURRENCY SUBMITS TO THE US DOLLAR


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Greek conundrum wasn’t solved and the euro felt the consequences, moving lower after a brief climb. The US Dollar wasn’t affected strongly by the GDP release, mostly because the figure was close to what analysts expected.

[Image: hqhGtJs.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.1280 but the low established a day earlier wasn’t breached. However, we expect to see further downside movement today and a potential touch of 1.1100. As we approach the 30th of June, the technical aspect will become less important because this date represents the deadline for about 1.5 billion euros that Greece must pay to the IMF.

Fundamental Outlook

European Union heads will meet today for the European Summit in Brussels to discuss a range of measures regarding population migration policy and Britain’s desire to renegotiate the terms of their European Union membership. The Summit, but also any new developments regarding Greece, can create a choppy and difficult to trade day.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound made some advances but found resistance at 1.5800 and the pair started to move south for the rest of the day.

[Image: V3IsX7q.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The perfect bounce at 1.5800 turned this level into resistance and showed that the bulls have run out of steam. This also suggests that we will probably see a period of bearish price action but before that can happen, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart must be broken. As long as the pair is trading below the EMA and below 1.5700 the momentum belongs to the bears and all moves up should be treated as retracements.

Fundamental Outlook

The CBI Realized Sales are released at 10:00 am GMT and expected to show a reading of 32 compared with the previous 51. Although this is considered a low-impact indicator, higher values are indicative of a healthy economy and usually strengthen the Pound. UK representatives will attend the European Summit so caution is recommended if you are going to trade Pound-related pairs today.
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