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GDMFX - Daily News
#21
Forex News: Mario Draghi testifies – waiting for the market’s reaction

EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the bulls scored the biggest victory of last week by taking the pair close to the major resistance located at 1.3830 on the back of a better than anticipated European CPI and a disappointing US Gross Domestic Product.

[Image: 2014.03.03-Mario-Draghi-testifies-waitin...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

As mentioned before, a crucial resistance sits in front of rising prices and we have already seen signs of rejection on a four hour chart. The Relative Strength Index is indicating an overbought market and it’s likely for the pair to pull back to 1.3770 before further advances to the upside can be made. The technical side of the market will be somewhat secondary and all eyes will be on Mario Draghi’s testimony.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important event of the day is the testimony of ECB President Mario Draghi which is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The president will speak before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament and we expect a lot of strong moves to occur at the time, depending on his attitude. Whipsaws and sharp reversals are a distinct possibility so we recommend caution if trading during the testimony. The US Manufacturing PMI is released at 3:00 pm GMT with an expected increase from the previous 51.3 to 52.3, a fact which would strengthen the greenback if it were to come true or if even higher numbers will be posted.


GBP/USD

The worse than expected US Gross Domestic Product allowed the pair to climb higher during Friday’s trading session. Price action was rather choppy on the lower time frames but the day was bullish nonetheless.

[Image: 2014.03.03-Mario-Draghi-testifies-waitin...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

As we mentioned last week, we are neutral on the pair until a clear break of either support (1.6600) or resistance (1.6750) occurs. The bulls had a good run Friday but resistance is still holding and a bounce lower is very possible. If this occurs, the first level of importance to the down side is 1.6665; on the other hand, a break of resistance would have to be confirmed by a re-test unless the move up is a very strong one.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT and a small increase is anticipated from the previous 56.7 to 56.9. Since this is a leading indicator of economic health focused on the manufacturing sector, better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Pound. The US Manufacturing PMI released later in the day will have a direct impact on the pair as well.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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#22
Forex News: Support levels are targeted

EUR/USD


Forex News: Surprisingly, the market didn’t react almost at all during Mario Draghi’s testimony which took place yesterday in Brussels. Although the president’s comments were rather positive regarding the lending situation in Europe, the single currency didn’t strengthen as estimated.

[Image: 2014.03.04-Support-levels-are-targeted-p...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Friday’s top couldn’t be surpassed yesterday and it appears as the overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index combined with the strength of 1.3830 resistance are setting the stage for a reversal. Even if signs of lower prices are present in the market, the pair is still under the control of the bulls from a medium term perspective so another push towards 1.3830 is very possible. However, we consider 1.3710 to be the first lower target. Note that the week opened with a gap lower and more often than not these gaps are filled so we might see price move to the upper part of the gap today or in the days to come, especially if 1.3710 is touched and manages to push the pair higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the Spanish Unemployment Change is the only noteworthy event of the day. The estimated value is 74.2K, a decrease from the previous 113.1K; usually lower than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the Euro as less unemployed people are a sign of a thriving economy. However, the event is considered to have a medium impact on the pair’s movement.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI met analysts’ forecast and posted a value of 56.9, a fact which didn’t create surprising moves but allowed the pair to have a bearish day following a bounce off 1.6750 resistance.

[Image: 2014.03.04-Support-levels-are-targeted-p...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading close to the level of 1.6665 and it looks like the bulls don’t have the power needed to push price above 1.6750. Even if we still maintain a neutral stance until either 1.6750 or 1.6600 is broken, we believe that a touch of the mentioned support is very likely if 1.6665 is broken to the downside. A break-or-bounce scenario will unfold if the pair touches 1.6600 support and the result will most likely influence the medium term outlook.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from the previous 64.6 to 63.6. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#23
Forex News: Support still holding but uncertainty rules the market

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday we had a rather mixed trading session, with price reversing direction several times, a fact which generated a difficult trade environment. Tensions in Ukraine added to the lack of clear direction.

[Image: 2014.03.05-Support-still-holding-but-unc...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Although the pair made a run for the support located at 1.3710, this level couldn’t be touched and the bulls took price higher for a re-test of the recently broken level of 1.3770. This re-test and the bounce lower that followed confirm the fact that now 1.3770 is resistance once again and moves to the south are a distinct possibility. However, the first support is located pretty close to current price and may reject price if touched, especially if the Relative Strength Index will indicate an oversold condition at the time.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 08:15 am GMT the Spanish Services PMI is released, with an anticipated increase from the previous 54.9 to 55.3. Half an hour later the Italian Services PMI is released and anticipated to increase from 49.4 to 50.6. Since both are leading indicators of health for the services sector in their respective countries, better than expected values usually strengthen the Euro but they are not considered high impact indicators.

Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT the US Non Farm Employment Change will be announced by Automatic Data Processing Inc.; although this release doesn’t have such a huge impact as the government indicator with the same name which comes out two days later, it has the potential to influence the market, especially if a surprising number is posted. The estimate is 159K, a decrease from the previous 175K and usually higher numbers are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The British Construction PMI came out worse than estimated, a fact which reversed a previous rally seen early yesterday on the lower time frames and triggered a slow decline for the rest of the day. However, the pair couldn’t move decisively away from 1.6665.

[Image: 2014.03.05-Support-still-holding-but-unc...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

No clear developments took place yesterday and currently the pair is trading close to 1.6665, a level which seems to attract price more and more recently. There are no clear signs of control exhibited by either bulls or bears and price action remains mixed until a break of 1.6750 resistance or 1.6600 support occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 09:30 am GMT with a small decrease anticipated from the previous 58.3 to 58.0. Since this is a survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and also a leading indicator of economic health, better than anticipated numbers have the potential to strengthen the Pound. Of course the US employment data will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#24
Forex News: Interest Rates are here again – a wild day ahead

EUR/USD


Forex News: European data released yesterday was slightly better than anticipated while the US ADP Non Farm Payrolls showed a decrease of employment levels during the previous month. Despite the data released, the greenback didn’t manage to take the pair below 1.3710.

[Image: 2014.03.06-Interest-Rates-are-here-again...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Two four-hour candles touched the support located at 1.3710 and both were rejected, closing with long wicks in their lower side. This is a sign of a potential bounce higher, with the first target being 1.3770, followed by 1.3830. Price action may be irregular until the ECB Press Conference is over and throughout the day, the technical factors will be secondary to the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a critical day for the Euro as the ECB will announce their Interest Rate decision at 12:45 am GMT (no change anticipated from the current 0.25%). The rate announcement will be followed 45 minutes later by a Press Conference during which ECB President Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and will answer audience questions. This Q&A session is usually a reason for huge volatility and sharp reversals as traders try to interpret Draghi’s comments and answers. We recommend caution if trading at the time.


GBP/USD

The British Services PMI posted a slightly better than estimated value, increasing demand for the currency while bad US employment data weakened the Dollar, allowing the pair to have a bullish trading session.

[Image: 2014.03.06-Interest-Rates-are-here-again...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s rise confirmed 1.6650 as support after a successful bounce higher off this level and once again we are close to the resistance located at 1.6750. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an overbought condition of the market and yesterday’s candles are full, without wicks to either side, indicating bull strength. However, a break of resistance cannot be anticipated because of important fundamental events which will most likely influence the day’s price direction.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England announces today at 12:00 pm GMT the Interest Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility value. No change is anticipated for either of them but nonetheless, volatility is likely to be present at the time of the release. The current Interest Rate is 0.50% and the Asset Purchase Facility is 375B and a surprise modification (or even hints of a future change) would generate huge moves.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#25
Forex News: All eyes on the US Non Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD


Forex News: The European Central Bank kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% but the single currency strengthened substantially on the back of comments made by Mario Draghi who suggested that no additional monetary stimulus is necessary, considering the current state of the economy.

[Image: 2014.03.07-All-eyes-on-the-US-Non-Farm-P...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The recent rally will probably continue after a brief retracement lower which is likely to find support around the freshly broken level of 1.3830. The four hour Relative Strength Index is signaling an overbought condition of the market, a fact which more often than not results in a bearish move. Although the outlook is bullish, almost anything is possible, especially if today’s US employment report shows a surprising value.

Fundamental Outlook

Without a doubt the US Non Farm Employment Change report is the day’s headline as it has a tremendous impact on the market each time it is released. The jobs situation is a concerning factor for the American economy and today’s report is considered the main gauge of this situation. Higher values suggest that more people are employed and also that consumer spending may increase in the future, a beneficial fact for the greenback. The event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the estimated figure is 151K, an increase from the previous 113K.


GBP/USD

Bank of England decided to make no adjustments to the Interest Rate or the Asset Purchase Facility but the pair moved to the north after some choppy price action experienced at the time of the interest rate release.

[Image: 2014.03.07-All-eyes-on-the-US-Non-Farm-P...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The resistance located at 1.6750 is finally broken after a long period of indecision. However, the break is not extremely strong so we are waiting for a re-test of the level and a bounce higher in order to consider this break a real one. The US Dollar will be highly influenced today by the US Non Farm Payrolls and the technical aspect of the market will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major data releases for the day and market participants will be mainly focused on the US events. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#26
Forex News: Bears fight back – US Dollar rebounds

EUR/USD


Forex News: The final day of the week that just ended was heavily influenced by the US Non Farm Employment report which exceeded expectations and strengthened the greenback as a result. Overall, the day was characterized by a sharp reversal which made trend following strategies almost impossible to trade successfully.

[Image: 2014.03.10-Bears-fight-back-US-Dollar-re...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Friday’s move lower is considered a retracement in an uptrend, with the main bias being bullish. An important resistance was broken last week, a fact which solidifies the control of the bulls but signs of weakness are present in the market: the Relative Strength Index is already moving down from overbought territory and the latest daily candle is a pin (which indicates rejection). Moves below 1.3830 may be indicative of increased bearish pressure and a break of Friday’s high located at 1.3914 would indicate trend continuation.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro Group meetings take place today in Brussels and are a potential market mover, considering the fact that important officials will be present (ECB President, Euro Group President and finance ministers from the member states). Although the meetings are closed to the press, participants often talk to journalists, possibly creating volatility, depending on the matters discussed.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair continued its choppy price action, moving above and below the level of 1.6750 before dropping on the back of good US employment data which reinforced the US Dollar.

[Image: 2014.03.10-Bears-fight-back-US-Dollar-re...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The recent move south is backed by fundamental events and the strength of the Pound seems to fade away as we saw the bulls make several failed attempts to break resistance. Our bias remains neutral in anticipation of a clear breakout but there are increased chances of an encounter with the first minor support level located at 1.6650.

Fundamental Outlook

Other than the Euro Group meetings, there are no notable events scheduled today and we anticipate slow trading if no major developments take place in Brussels.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#27
Forex News: Mark Carney’s testimony steals the headlines

EUR/USD


Forex News: The week started with ranging price action and the pair lacked clear direction. No major economic indicators were released, contributing to the ranging price action and slow movement.

[Image: 2014.03.11-Mark-Carneys-testimony-steals...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

As mentioned, yesterday price was confined in a narrow range but this fact makes us believe that today we will see stronger moves. The pair is in an uptrend but the fact that buyers failed to take price higher may suggest that lower moves will follow; if this is the case, 1.3830 is the next potential support and target of the day. Keep in mind that bulls are still in control of the pair and only a break of support would mean that bears are really starting to shift the power in their favor.

Fundamental Outlook

Both the Euro and the US Dollar have a slow day ahead in terms of economic indicator releases and we consider the technical aspect to be the main market mover.


GBP/USD

The sellers managed to seize control of the pair yesterday and took price below the support located at 1.6650. Overall we had a day without sharp reversals and a steady trend was in place on the lower time frames.

[Image: 2014.03.11-Mark-Carneys-testimony-steals...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

As mentioned before, the pair broke 1.6650 support and is now trading below it. Short term control belongs to the bears but the break is not a clear one and we still consider the picture to be unclear until a break of 1.6600 occurs. Although moves above 1.6650 are possible, we slightly favor the short side but we acknowledge the fact that today’s important fundamental events may overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important event of the day is Mark Carney’s testimony before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee with the main focus being the economic outlook and the inflation situation. During the few hours of the hearings, strong and even irregular movement may be experienced, depending on the matters discussed. The hearings start at 09:30 am GMT and at the same time the UK Manufacturing Production is announced, with an anticipated increase from 1.5% to 3.3%. Better than anticipated values for this indicator are usually beneficial for the Pound and have the potential to take the pair higher.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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#28
Forex News: Markets governed by indecision. Strong moves still expected

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had a rather slow day, characterized by a sharp reversal after a touch of 1.3830 support zone. The fundamental scene was quiet, a fact which contributed to the pair’s lack of strong movement and narrow range.

[Image: 2014.03.12-Markets-governed-by-indecisio...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

An important level was barely touched yesterday but price showed an almost immediate reaction, bouncing higher for about 40 pips. This is without a doubt a bullish sign but lately the pair seems to lack momentum and the buyers’ strength is slowly fading away. On the other hand, even if our anticipated target of 1.3830 was almost reached, we didn’t see clear bearish pressure. All this goes to show that the market is governed by indecision and the next strong move will probably determine the short term bias. Support still sits at 1.3830 while the highest price reached this year (1.3914) will probably act as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Industrial Production is announced, with an anticipated increase from the previous 0.5% to 1.9%. Such a change would be beneficial for the Euro and we might see higher prices as this is a leading indicator of economic health. The US has a slow day ahead and no major indicators are released.


GBP/USD

Although we expected Mark Carney’s testimony to have a higher impact on the market, the pair moved between support and resistance for the entire day and no major developments took place.

[Image: 2014.03.12-Markets-governed-by-indecisio...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

For a long time the pair has been trading between the support located at 1.6600 and the resistance located at 1.6750; a clear break of either level would most likely determine the pair’s next medium term direction so we can say that we are a crossroad now: if 1.6600 will be broken today, we are likely to see and extended move lower but a bounce higher off this level would indicate that the ranging period is not over yet.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic releases and this makes the technical aspect the most influential factor of the day.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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#29
Forex News: US Retail Sales – the incentive for a break of Support or Resistance

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had a bullish trading session yesterday, with price moving in one direction for almost the entire day. The better than expected value of the Euro Zone Industrial Production greatly contributed to this upward movement by strengthening the Euro.

[Image: 2014.03.13-US-Retail-Sales-the-incentive...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair made an attempt to break this year’s high located at 1.3914 and price is now in close vicinity of this level but there are no clear hints of a breakout or of a bounce lower. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is very close to the 70 level, a fact which indicates an overbought condition of the market and price is printing a double top pattern which usually indicates that lower moves are anticipated. The main levels to watch are 1.3914 as resistance and 1.3830 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day is the release of the US Retail Sales scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. Retail sales represent a hefty part of the entire US consumer spending and are considered a market mover which can drastically affect the pair’s behavior. For today’s release an increase is anticipated from the previous value of -0.4% to 0.2% and usually better than expected numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

For a long time we expected a break of either support or resistance and yesterday the pair moved briefly below 1.6600. However the break could not be sustained by the bears and price moved quickly to the upside.

[Image: 2014.03.13-US-Retail-Sales-the-incentive...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The fact that yesterday price tried to break the important support located at 1.6600 but failed and quickly returned above it indicates that bears are not ready yet to take control of the pair. To the upside, the first level of interest remains 1.6650 while 1.6600 is still support which could generate a bounce higher if it’s not broken today. We remain neutral until a clear break occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a calm day ahead in terms of economic indicator releases so we consider the US event to be the main market mover of the day.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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#30
Forex New: Support levels threatened again

EUR/USD


Forex New: The pair had a wild day yesterday, characterized by Euro Zone optimism which took price higher but was soon followed by a sharp reversal triggered partly by a better than expected value of the US Retail Sales.

[Image: 2014.03.14-Support-levels-threatened-aga...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday price printed a new high at 1.3965 but the Dollar strengthened after the US data came out and 1.3914 (previous high) was broken to the down side. The latest fall opens the door for a break of 1.3830 support, a fact which would represent a major victory for the bears. Note that the drop didn’t occur immediately after the release of the US Retail Sales so technical reasons, not only fundamental were responsible for it, a fact which makes us believe that high prices were hard to sustain, the bullish trend was overextended and the market was in need of a strong move to the south which may turn into a full scale reversal.

Fundamental Outlook

At 07:00 am GMT the German Final Consumer Price Index is released and anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.2%. The indicator is Germany’s main inflation gauge but it is usually overshadowed by the Preliminary version which is released about 15 days earlier; however, higher values have the potential to strengthen the Euro and take the pair higher. Later in the day, at 1:55 pm GMT, the US Consumer Confidence is released and expected to increase from the previous 81.2 to 81.9; higher levels of consumer confidence are indicative of future increases in consumer spending which is vital for the economy so US Dollar strength is anticipated if higher values will be posted.


GBP/USD

The first part of yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the bulls on the back of speculation that Bank of England will raise the Interest Rate sooner than estimated but the day finished with a stronger US Dollar and a bearish move which nullified the Pound’s previous gains.

[Image: 2014.03.14-Support-levels-threatened-aga...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The recent encounter with the support located at 1.6600 resulted in a bounce higher which broke 1.6650 decisively to the upside; however, the rally was sharply reversed and price moved lower, in close vicinity to 1.6600. All this goes to show that indecision still rules the pair but the bears can make a decisive move today if they manage to break 1.6600 support and finish the week below it. We slightly favor this scenario and anticipate a break of 1.6600 but we acknowledge the fact that bulls still have underlying strength and may take the pair north.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom releases the Trade Balance today at 09:30 am GMT; the indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and higher readings are beneficial for the Pound. Today’s expected value is -8.7B while the previous was -7.7B but the indicator is not considered a market mover and the impact is usually mild. The US Confidence indicator will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement as well.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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