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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: END OF WEEK PROFIT TAKING BRINGS PRICE LOWER


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the euro extended its gains against the greenback although the climb was visibly slower than previous days. The American Producer Price Index posted a worse than expected value, weakening the US Dollar.

[Image: Ymg4Hyr.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After climbing very close to 1.1450 resistance, the pair rebounded slightly lower and overall the euro seems to be losing steam. Both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index reached overbought levels and are now curving downwards suggesting that a deeper retracement is due. The level at 1.1390 may offer some support, followed by the more important 1.1280.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment Survey; its importance comes from the positive correlation between a confident consumer and a high level of retail sales so higher values than the forecast 96.5 will most likely strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair continued to climb yesterday and resistance was tested. The day lacked major news releases and overall we had a trading session without reversals.

[Image: bAvkyBI.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the pair is in an uptrend from a medium term perspective, we expect a bearish retracement today. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are long overbought now and price moved strongly to the upside without a clear pullback. All this combined with the resistance at 1.5790 will probably generate the retracement we mentioned. A strong break of resistance would probably bring in more buyers but the climb should be limited.

Fundamental Outlook

Price action throughout the day will be influenced mainly by the U.S. release and by the technical aspect because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule news releases.
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FOREX NEWS: GREENBACK’S DECAY CONTINUES


EUR/USD



Friday an American survey showed that consumer sentiment declined more than analyst’s predicted, negatively affecting the US Dollar and driving the pair into resistance.

[Image: JZjEAfe.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance level located at 1.1450 was touched and pierced Friday on the back of weak U.S. data but the bulls didn’t manage to close the week above it. We expect price to move above the level today but the extent of the climb should be limited. A false break or a rebound lower could bring the pair into the bullish trend line seen on the chart if this scenario takes place, we expect another climb after a bounce at the mentioned support or at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

Both the dollar and euro have a slow day ahead in terms of economic news releases so price action will be mainly driven by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar was weak throughout last week but especially Friday the climb slowed and the bears managed to take price slightly lower after another bounce at resistance.

[Image: bPN2BUP.jpg]

Technical Outlook

It seems like bearish pressure is starting to accumulate as the pair made two attempts to break the resistance zone around 1.5800 but both resulted in moves lower. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic have spent a long time above their respective overbought levels and now are heading south, increasing the bearish pressure. The first form of support will be offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a touch is less likely to happen today.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the single currency and the Dollar, the Pound will not be affected by major news releases today.
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FOREX NEWS: GERMAN ZEW, BRITISH INFLATION DATA – THE MARKET MOVERS OF THE DAY


EUR/USD



Forex News: The US Dollar showed signs of recovery yesterday and resistance proved too strong for the bulls to break. Price action was mostly bearish, following a bounce at resistance.

[Image: a2f6u5u.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The medium term trend remains bullish and the current move can be considered just a normal retracement generated by overextended price. Bullish action is likely to resume if the pair will touch the trend line (visible on the chart above) or the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart. If these forms of support are broken, the next one is represented by the level at 1.1280 and a move below it, could mean that we are dealing with a reversal.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event on the euro side is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is a survey of about 275 professional investors and analysts who are asked to present a six month outlook for the German economy. Usually the survey has a strong impact on the euro, strengthening it if better values than the forecast 48.9 are posted.

The greenback will be mildly affected by the U.S. Building Permits released at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 1.06M (previous value 1.04M). Higher numbers suggest increased economic activity and a stronger dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair had a pretty slow day with mostly bearish price action. No major support or resistance level was broken and no substantial advances were made.

[Image: Jr7Znl7.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Similar to the euro, the pound bounced at resistance and is now headed towards the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Both the stochastic and the Relative Strength Index were long overbought before the current bearish move occurred so we expect the pair to keep moving south until the support at 1.5550 is touched or at least until the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is tested.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be strongly affected by the release of the British CPI which is the main gauge of inflation. The scheduled time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and the anticipated change is 0.0%; however, a higher percentage will most likely generate Pound strength.
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FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR SET FOR AN EPIC COMEBACK AHEAD OF FOMC MEETING MINUTES


EUR/USD



Forex News: The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey failed to meet analysts’ expectations while American Building Permits posted a higher than expected reading, strengthening the US Dollar. All this generated a strong bearish day.

[Image: iDJsb2Z.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair broke all immediate support (bullish trend line, the level at 1.1280 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average) and is now headed towards the support zone at 1.1100. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are approaching oversold territory so we expect price to pause or retrace higher if the mentioned support is hit but the current momentum is definitely bearish so we are likely to see further downside movement after the said retracement.

Fundamental Outlook

The greenback will be strongly affected today by the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes scheduled at 6:00 pm GMT. Rumors about a Fed rate hike have been circulating for quite a while and this document might contain details about the Fed’s next course of action regarding the monetary policy and interest rates. Almost always the release has a huge effect on the greenback so caution is recommended if trading at the time.


GBP/USD

British CPI numbers showed that inflation might become a worrying issue in the future and this, combined with positive US data generated a sharp selloff for the pair.

[Image: j0rnxAW.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although the bears scored a major victory by taking price below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, a turning point is ahead: the confluence zone created by the support at 1.5500 and the bullish trend line. All this, combined with the fact that the oscillators are below their respective oversold levels might generate a bullish push which is likely to find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Bank of England will publish the votes on the latest interest rate decision. Although no change in the members’ stance is expected, the event has the potential to be a strong market mover if surprises occur.
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FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR IS POUNDING ON SUPPORT. UNCERTAINTY PRESENT


EUR/USD



Forex News: Ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes release, the US Dollar continued to erase its previous losses but movement wasn’t substantial. The opinions of Fed officials were not one sided, with some of them expecting inflation to rise more than it did, so the greenback had mixed reactions at the release time.

[Image: eLNnSZq.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is struggling to break 1.1100 support zone but if a break doesn’t occur early during the day, we expect the euro bulls to take over price action and to drive the pair higher. The first bullish target is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and considering that both oscillators are oversold, an encounter with the mentioned resistance is the more favored scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:30 am GMT the German Manufacturing PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about business conditions in the manufacturing sector. A higher value than the anticipated 51.9 is considered bullish for the euro. Later in the day, at 11:30 am GMT the ECB will publish the Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts which is a detailed record of their latest meeting regarding the interest rate (the document outlines the reasons which generated the latest decision on where to set interest rates). A hawkish attitude is beneficial for the euro but the ECB started to release this document in early 2015 so its impact is not yet fully established.


GBP/USD

Before the FOMC announcement the pair touched the bullish trend line and the dollar showed signs of strength but the mixed stance of the FOMC members generated choppy movement.

[Image: YhEYqLu.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is trapped between the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the support at 1.5500 and the bullish trend line. A break of either one of these technical barriers will generate an extended move in the direction of the break. For the time being our bias is neutral for this pair.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be strongly affected today by the release of the British Retail Sales numbers scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. Such sales represent a major part of the entire economic activity thus a higher change than the forecast 0.4% (previous -0.5%) would strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher.
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FOREX NEWS: END OF WEEK SUPER FIGHT: DRAGHI VS. AMERICAN INFLATION DATA VS. CARNEY


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday price action continued to be extremely choppy and characterized by single impulses which were quickly reversed. The economic data released by Europe and the United States was mixed and contributed to the day’s lack of direction.

[Image: 9gNLQDc.jpg]

Technical Outlook

On a four hour chart the last few candles show long wicks in both their upper and lower parts, suggesting indecision. Usually after a period of indecision price moves strongly when it finally decides a direction so if today that direction will be chosen, we expect strong moves. The main barriers to watch today are 1.1100 support and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average as resistance. The Stochastic is moving out of oversold, suggesting a bullish push.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the day is the release of the German IFO Business Climate survey which acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The scheduled time is 8:00 am GMT and the forecast is 108.3; a higher value has the potential to strengthen the Euro.

The most important event of the day however is the release of American inflation data in the form of the Consumer Price Index. The anticipated change is 0.1% and higher percentages will most likely strengthen the US Dollar, especially because Fed officials mentioned they expected higher inflation levels. The scheduled time is 12:30 pm GMT and an hour later, ECB President Mario Draghi will participate in a discussion titled “Inflation and Unemployment in Europe”. Considering that these topics have a high impact on the currency market, we recommend caution during his speech.


GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales were yesterday’s headline for the Pound-Dollar pair. A much better than expected value was posted, triggering substantial Pound strength and a move north.

[Image: POa4ACS.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Avenge to the upside and it seems like the balance is tilting in the favor of the bulls. Also, the Stochastic lines are nicely spread apart, showing good momentum so we expect price to touch 1.5800 resistance once again; however it remains to be seen if today’s events will have enough impact to take price into that zone.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carrey will also participate in the discussion mentioned above and titled “Inflation and Unemployment in Europe”. The event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and we expect it to have a strong impact on the currency market.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR FLEXES ITS MUSCLES. DOWNTREND RESUMPTION AHEAD?


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday’s trading session belonged to the bears on the back of better than anticipated US inflation data. The greenback strengthened and the pair dropped below support.

[Image: 2015.05.25-Dollar-flexes-its-muscles.-Do...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

After a near-perfect bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair moved easily through the support at 1.1100 but stopped at 1.1000. It is very possible that price stopped here simply because the market closed Friday evening but there is also a possibility that 1.1000 is too strong to be broken in the first attempt. Probably an answer will be found today but a lot of major banks will be closed due to holidays so we might be in for a choppy trading session. Our bias remains slightly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Swiss, French and German banks are closed today in observance of Whit Monday. US banks will also be closed, celebrating Memorial Day and all this could translate into choppy movement, without clear direction.


GBP/USD

Similar to the euro, the Pound succumbed to US Dollar strength, which took the pair south. Support was tested but not clearly broken.

[Image: 2015.05.25-Dollar-flexes-its-muscles.-Do...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The Dollar is showing clear signs of strength but the Pound cannot be overlooked especially because 1.5500 is not yet broken. However the pair broke the bullish trend line and is now trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart so the latest momentum clearly favors the bears, increasing the chances of an extended move down. A bullish bounce will encounter resistance at the trend line combined with the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule news releases for today and British banks will be closed celebrating Spring Bank Holiday.
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FOREX NEWS: TRUE MARKET DIRECTION TO BE REVEALED TODAY


EUR/USD



Forex News: Memorial Day in the U.S. and the rest of the Holidays in Europe generated an almost flat day of trading, without any special developments or substantial advances.

[Image: o19Xj7u.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved below the support level located at 1.1000 but given the circumstances we cannot consider this move a real breakout. Price moved slowly below the level, mostly due to low volatility and lack of trading activity, not necessarily because of dollar strength. That being said, probably today the real direction of the market will be revealed: if the bears can keep price below 1.1000 we are dealing with a true break and the level will probably turn into resistance. Otherwise, we are likely to see a move close to 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

Two important US events will be today’s headlines: at 12:30 pm GMT the Durable Goods Orders are released, with an expected change of -0.4% compared to last month’s 4.7%. Such a drop would suggest economic slowdown and would be detrimental to the US Dollar. Later in the day at 2:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence is released and expected to post a figure of 95.3, almost unchanged from the previous 95.2. High levels of confidence among consumers suggest that spending will pick up in the near future and that’s why a higher value usually strengthens the greenback.


GBP/USD

Similar to the euro-dollar, the Cable remained below support but the trading session lacked major advances and price was mostly flat.

[Image: W7ZdVRu.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Because yesterday’s price action doesn’t offer hints about future direction, our bias for the pair is mostly neutral. If 1.5500 will turn into resistance, we favor the short side but the Stochastic is below its 20 level, suggesting oversold and a potential climb. If this is the case, the first resistance is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases so price action will be driven by the technical aspect and by the U.S. events.
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FOREX NEWS: EURO TUMBLES, DOLLAR REGAINS KING STATUS?


EUR/USD



Forex News: The euro lost its appeal to investors as concerns about the Greek debt crisis intensified. Also, the US Dollar benefited from the Durable Goods Orders release and the pair moved south for the entire day.

[Image: PBJ4Vhc.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is set for a bullish pullback considering the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic but the bias is bearish as long as price remains below the resistance zone created between 1.1100 and 1.1000. The first potential support and target for the bears is located at 1.0820 while bullish pullbacks can find resistance at the bearish trend line or 1.1000.

Fundamental Outlook

Central bankers and finance ministers from seven industrialized nations will attend the Group of Seven (G7) Meetings today and during the next 2 days. Although the meetings are closed for the press, some information usually leaks during the day and this can have a strong impact on the currency market so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The greenback won the battle against the Pound as well and the pair remained below 1.5500 which turned into resistance. Some bullish retracements were seen later in the day on the lower time frames.

[Image: sYqYdke.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is oversold on a four hour time frame as showed by the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic, so the chances of bullish movement have increased. However, as long as price remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.5500, the picture is bearish and we anticipate further downside movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom is a member of the Group of Seven so British representatives will participate in the Meetings but no major news releases are scheduled for today.
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FOREX NEWS: GREEK DEBT CRISIS BOILS OVER, DOLLAR EXPLOITS THE OPPORTUNITY


EUR/USD



Forex News: During yesterday’s session of the G7 Meetings it became pretty clear that Greece will fail to meet a debt deadline scheduled at the end of May. The euro responded by weakening substantially against the US Dollar, generating another push down.

[Image: Xn34xws.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After a brief bullish retracement the pair continued on its downward path and touched the support at 1.0820. Although lately the control belongs to the bears, we must note that the pair is showing rejection at 1.0820 support and both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are still in oversold. All these signs show there are increased chances of a bullish bounce but if Greek concerns will escalate further, the pair is likely to drop below the mentioned support.

Fundamental Outlook

The G7 Meetings continue today and apart from that, the U.S. Unemployment Claims are the most notable event on the Dollar side. The numbers are released at 12:30 pm GMT and the forecast is 272K, close to the previous 274K (a lower number is considered beneficial for the greenback).

At 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Pending Home Sales are released and anticipated to post a change of 0.8% compared to the previous 1.1%. For this indicator a higher than anticipated value is considered bullish for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pound-dollar pair moved on a downwards path after a shallow bullish pullback; however, support was not reached but this is normal considering that the first important level is still far away.

[Image: z8vRBM4.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The medium-to-short term bias remains negative as long as the pair is trading below 1.5500 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the oversold condition of the oscillators warns about a potential move up. Today price will be strongly affected by the fundamental side which will overshadow the technical.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Second Estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released. Usually this indicator has a strong impact on the Pound, strengthening it if the actual value surpasses the forecast of the analysts. Today’s expected change is 0.4% while the previous was 0.3% (quarter over quarter numbers).
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