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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: PRICE VOLATILITY SUFFERS FROM A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL ENVIRONMENT


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday the bears solidified their control and managed to take price significantly lower although no major economic indicators were released.

[Image: 2015.04.13-Price-volatility-suffers-from...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The current drop seems overextended because price traveled a big distance in a short while. Although on the higher time frames the picture is bearish, we expect small bullish retracements today, considering the oversold condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index and by the Stochastic. Important support is located at 1.0500 and we consider this level to be the pair’s next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

Today price action will be mostly driven by technical factors because no important economic indicators are released by either Europe or the United States.


GBP/USD

The important support at 1.4635 was breached Friday after a successful re-test of the previously broken support (1.4710). The British Manufacturing Production met analysts’ consensus and the release didn’t create strong market movement.

[Image: 2015.04.13-Price-volatility-suffers-from...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

After breaching the zone around 1.4635 price returned above it but still remained close to it. If the current bullish move turns out to be a successful re-test of the broken support, we will most likely see further downside movement but both oscillators spent a long time in oversold territory and this increases the chances of a stronger move to the upside. A decisive break of 1.4635 would be a major victory for the bears and would expose the next support, located around 1.4350.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and the Dollar, the Pound has a slow day from a fundamental perspective because no major indicators are released. This might generate a ranging day with choppy price action.
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FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN RETAIL SALES – A STEP CLOSER TO A RATE HIKE?


EUR/USD



Forex News: Although the fundamental scene was pretty calm yesterday, the pair had an active session and the greenback continued to strengthen. Price remained below 1.0720 and even threatened the important support at 1.0500.

[Image: x02Lgia.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The current run is likely to continue until the key level at 1.0500 is touched but it is important to note that both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are oversold even on a four hour chart. It is true that this doesn’t mean that a price climb is certain but it is a bullish sign or at least a hint that a retracement might come before 1.0500 is broken. The overall picture remains bearish, with a strong dollar and a downwards slope of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Retail Sales are the day’s most important release. Scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to change 1.1% compared with last month’s -0.6%, sales made at retail stores can strongly affect the US Dollar because they represent the major part of overall consumer spending. A higher than anticipated value is considered bullish for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair had mixed direction yesterday and we saw price return above 1.4635 soon after a bearish move below this level.

[Image: 9v2de8P.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s climb took price into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which is angled downwards and is providing good resistance. If this dynamic form of resistance is surpassed today, we expect a touch of 1.4710 but otherwise a move below 1.4635 is next. Overall the picture remains bearish and all moves north should be treated as retracements in a downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook

British inflation data is released today at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Consumer Price Index. The expected value is the same as the previous: 0.0%. However, a higher percent would most likely strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher.
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FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK TO REVEAL MONETARY POLICY DIRECTION


EUR/USD



Forex News: American retail sales data disappointed yesterday and as a result the US Dollar weakened significantly. The pair climbed at the time of the release and came in close vicinity of resistance.

[Image: OsaP1R4.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price moved upwards and is now approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart as well as the level at 1.0720. This confluence zone created by the EMA and horizontal resistance will be tough to break by the bulls but would be a show of strength if they manage to surpass it. Both oscillators are bullish without being overbought but the overall picture remains bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is an important day for the euro because the European Central Bank will announce the interest rate and ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a Press Conference which is likely to trigger strong euro movement. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.05% but during the Press Conference journalists will ask questions which are likely to uncover hints about future monetary policy in the Eurozone. The rate announcement is scheduled at 11:45 am GMT and the Press Conference follows 45 minutes later at 12:30 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index posted the anticipated figure and the release went mostly unnoticed. However the greenback suffered from poor retail sales data and the pair climbed above resistance.

[Image: Qxr1N5n.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Considering the latest climb, the pair is likely to touch 1.4830 again. A bullish break of this level followed by a successful re-test would shift the balance in favor of the buyers but as long as the pair remains below the mentioned level, the medium term bias is bearish. The Relative Strength Index surpassed its 70 level indicating that further bullish movement will be made difficult by an overbought condition.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today thus the movement of the pair will be mainly affected by the technical side.
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FOREX NEWS: BULLS STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE, SELLING PRESSURE STILL PRESENT


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the pair remained below the 50 period exponential Moving Average and below resistance. As expected the European Central Bank kept the interest rate at record lows (0.05%) but the Press Conference created mixed movement on euro pairs.

[Image: 2015.04.16-Bulls-struggle-to-advance-sel...24x595.png]

Technical Outlook

The fact that yesterday the pair didn’t threaten 1.0720 resistance and remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average might be a sign that the bulls are running out of steam already. The Stochastic on a four hour chart is crossing downwards, indicating bearish pressure so the door for 1.0500 is open once again. As long as the Moving Average is pointing down and price is below it, our bias remains bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Building Permits are released; this is a gauge of construction activity and higher numbers than the anticipated 1.08M are usually beneficial for the US Dollar. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released and expected to post an increase to 6.5 from the previous 5.0. The indicator offers insights into the state of the manufacturing sector and higher numbers strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair dropped to touch support but bounced higher almost immediately. Overall the day had mixed and somewhat choppy price action.

[Image: 2015.04.16-Bulls-struggle-to-advance-sel...24x595.png]

Technical Outlook

The horizontal support at 1.4710 combined with dynamic support represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average proved too strong for the bears to break. The next destination seems to be 1.4830 unless price moves very quickly below 1.4710. A move above 1.4830 followed by a successful re-test would shift the short term balance in favor of the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases but today is the first day of the G20 Meetings and British officials will participate. The effect of the G20 meetings might extend to other pairs as well.
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FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN INFLATION DATA TO “MAKE OR BREAK” THE US DOLLAR TREND


EUR/USD



Forex News: U.S. economic data released yesterday was mostly disappointing and this fact, combined with technical reasons, generated bullish price action. Better than expected Philadelphia Manufacturing data restored some dollar strength and negated a break of 1.0720 resistance.

[Image: FNOYdzg.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Although price moved above 1.0720 yesterday, the bulls didn’t manage to capitalize on the break and price soon returned below resistance. This shows underlying selling pressure and makes us believe that bearish price action will resume if the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart will be broken to the downside. A lot will depend on the U.S. inflation data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s headline is the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. This is a very important gauge of inflation and plays a vital role in Fed’s rate decision. The expected change is 0.2%, same as last month but usually higher numbers are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair moved above key resistance and continued to move north for the better part of the day. U.S. economic data disappointed and this contributed to the climb.

[Image: pcUN1KG.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Price moved above 1.4830 and then successfully re-tested it from above, confirming the break. This makes 1.4980 the next important level but the Relative Strength Index warns about an overbought condition of the market so we expect a bearish move even if 1.4980 will be touched afterwards. It’s a busy day for both the Pound and the greenback so the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Claimant Count Change is released at 8:30 am GMT, showing the change in the number of people who asked for unemployment related social aid. A lower number than the forecast -29.0K is considered beneficial for the Pound. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release a Consumer Sentiment survey which is expected to increase to 93.8 from the previous 93.0. Since consumer sentiment is tightly correlated with consumer spending, a higher number has the potential to strengthen the US Dollar.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: TIGHT RANGE ON THE BACK OF A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE


EUR/USD
 


Forex News: Friday the pair remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but movement was choppy and no substantial advances were made. U.S. data was slightly better than analysts expected and this generated some selling pressure in the second part of the session.

[Image: 04Rd0u6.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The pair is above the Moving Average on a four hour chart and above 1.0720 which is now support. The bullish movement is likely to extend into 1.0900 resistance but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are approaching overbought and this suggests that price will bounce lower if resistance is touched. A move below 1.0720 would open the door for a touch of 1.0500 key support during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major news releases so the focus will be on the technical aspect. Ranging price action is possible because usually Mondays are slow if the fundamental scene is calm.


GBP/USD 

Price climbed smoothly Friday although British unemployment data was worse than expected. However the day finished on a bearish note, with price traveling back below 1.4980.

[Image: v57b2Hl.jpg]

Technical Outlook

Lately the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic reached overbought several times on an hourly chart but the pair kept climbing. The break of 1.4980 resistance followed by the quick move below it might be a sign that this time we will see a bigger move south but for this to happen, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average must be broken. If this occurs, the next destination is 1.4830 but this is not likely to happen today.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the euro and the dollar, the sterling will not be affected by major economic releases today and this is one of the reasons why we don’t expect huge movement.
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FOREX NEWS: GERMAN ZEW TO DETERMINE THE NEXT EURO MOVE


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the pair moved south and trading was smooth for the most part. No major data came out and this contributed to the calm trading session.

[Image: hxJkEui.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The bulls failed to continue Friday’s climb and the pair returned into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.0720. The oscillators are moving downwards coming from the top of their range and this increases the bearish pressure but we are dealing with a “bounce or break” scenario at the moment. If the confluence zone created by the 50 period EMA and 1.0720 can be broken quickly then we are likely to see a drop close to 1.0500; otherwise 1.0900 remains the next medium term destination.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is released today at 9:00 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 56.0 compared to last month’s 54.8. This survey shows the opinions of about 275 professional investors and analysts and usually is a strong mover for the euro; higher values are usually beneficial for the single currency.


GBP/USD

Price remained below resistance for the entire day and even broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average in the second part of the session.

[Image: 6JIqXio.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The fact that the bulls couldn’t continue the climb after breaking 1.4980 and instead price quickly returned below the mentioned level, makes us believe that further downside movement is next. The 50 period EMA on an hourly chart will now provide resistance if touched again but a move above it would imply that we will see another encounter with 1.4980.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic news releases for the day and this means that the technical aspect will take center stage.
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FOREX NEWS: BUYERS PUSH HIGHER. STRONG RESISTANCE AHEAD


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the pair reversed an early morning decline generated by a worse than expected German ZEW survey and price quickly moved above 1.0720 after an initial break to the downside.

[Image: 5WW9woN.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The latest move above 1.0720 is likely to find resistance at the bearish trend line visible on the chart above, especially if the 50 period Exponential Moving Average can be surpassed. If both these areas of resistance are broken, we will most likely see a touch of 1.0900. On the other hand, a quick return below 1.0720 would invalidate the bullish scenario and would shift the balance in favor of the bears.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Existing Home Sales announcement scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT is the only notable event of the day. This indicator offers insights into the state of the American house market (excluding new construction) but usually has a medium to low impact. The expected figure is 5.04M which is higher than last month’s 4.88M; numbers above forecast are considered beneficial for the U.S. Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair moved back above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and most of the day was controlled by the bulls. No major economic releases took place and the climb way mostly technical.

[Image: nKjTB9w.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The buyers are fighting to regain control of the pair and to continue the short term uptrend but the important resistance at 1.4980 might hinder their efforts. In the past this level proved very strong, rejecting rising price several times so we don’t expect to see a bullish break if a fundamental event doesn’t substantiate the move. Support will be offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, followed by 1.4830.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will make public the votes on the latest interest rate decision at 8:30 am GMT. Last month all 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the rate at current levels and no change is expected today but if a surprise occurs we will probably see huge movement for the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON GERMAN MANUFACTURING DATA AND BRITISH RETAIL SALES


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair is lately showing signs of indecision and almost all moves are quickly reversed. Yesterday’s trading session was no exception and we witnessed a false break of the trend line and a consequent move lower.

[Image: hxaKoEA.jpg]

Technical Outlook

After moving above the bullish trend line the pair returned at 1.0720 support and is currently trying to break it to the downside. Neither side is in clear control so our bias is neutral until either support or resistance is broken and successfully re-tested afterwards. The fundamental scene is busier today than in previous days and this might bring the pair out of its indecision.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 7:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is released and anticipated to show a value of 49.4. Half an hour later the German Manufacturing PMI comes out with an expected value of 53.1. Both indicators are derived from the opinions of purchasing managers regarding their respective sectors and better values are usually beneficial for the euro.

The US Dollar will be affected by the release of the Unemployment Claims scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to post a reading of 288K. Lower values for this indicator usually strengthen the greenback but the impact is often mild because this release occurs each week.


GBP/USD

The details of the interest rate votes showed that all members voted to hold the rate unchanged and the event, combined with technical reasons took the pair higher for the most part of the day.

[Image: aOo455p.jpg]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.4980 was clearly broken yesterday and this makes the short term outlook bullish. First potential resistance is located at 1.5165 but even if this level will be touched, we believe that price will first move lower, considering that both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart are overbought. However, on a four hour chart there is still room for the oscillators to move to the upside so the signals are mixed. The level at 1.4980 will probably act as support if touched.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Retail Sales come out; this is an indicator which usually creates strong moves because the retail sector represents a major part of the entire economic activity. The expected change is 0.4%, lower than last month’s 0.7% and higher values are beneficial for the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: A GREEK EXIT LOOMS. MARKETS IN TURMOIL


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the bulls and the pair remained above resistance for the entire day although European manufacturing data was disappointing.

[Image: 2015.04.24-A-Greek-exit-looms.-Markets-i...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

Price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above the support at 1.0720; this means that currently the bias is bullish and we expect a touch of short term resistance located at 1.0850. A break of this level would open the door for the next resistance which is located at 1.0900 but today the technical aspect will be overshadowed by the fundamental scene.

Fundamental Outlook

Representatives of the Eurogroup will meet today to discuss a solution to the Greek debt crisis. This can strongly affect the direction of the pair so we expect a volatile day, with irregular movement. A separation of Greece from the European Union has been speculated but so far these are just rumors and a distant solution.

The U.S. Durable Goods Orders are released at 12:30 pm GMT and are expected to show a change of 0.7% while last month’s value was -1.1%. Increased demand for such goods shows a thriving economy and usually a stronger US Dollar.


GBP/USD

A worse than expected value of the British Retail Sales weakened the Pound during the first part of yesterday’s trading session. However support proved too tough to break and the pair bounced higher.

[Image: 2015.04.24-A-Greek-exit-looms.-Markets-i...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

Price bounced at 1.4980 which is now support and we expect the current direction to continue throughout the day. First potential resistance is located at 1.5165 but before this level will be hit we expect bearish retracements, considering that both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are trading in the upper part of their range.

Fundamental Outlook

The Greek talks are likely to affect the Pound-Dollar pair as well so we recommend caution throughout the day. The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases.
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