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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION TAKES CENTER-STAGE


EUR/USD



Forex News: German inflation posted a better number than analysts expected but the value was still lower than last month and this coupled with technical reasons generated a slow but bearish day.

[Image: image0012-1024x592.png]

Technical Outlook

Price remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the resistance at 1.0900 for almost the entire day, but 1.0780 minor support was not threatened. Today we expect an encounter with this level but if the oscillators will be oversold at the time, the chances of a bounce higher will increase. For a break to be considered valid we would like to see the level re-tested from below.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day is released at 9:00 am GMT: the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index. This is the main gauge of inflation for the European economy and has a strong impact on the single currency. ECB’s target for inflation is just below 2% so the current level is considered too low and numbers below analysts’ expectation of -0.3% would further weaken the Euro.

At 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Confidence comes out and is expected to post a value of 96.6, almost unchanged from last month’s 96.4; however, a higher number is considered beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The British data was in line with analysts’ expectations and didn’t have a strong impact on the pair’s movement which slid lower yesterday.

[Image: image0032-1024x592.png]

Technical Outlook

After moving below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average price broke the important support located at 1.4830. This break was long anticipated but in order to consider it a true break, price must re-test the level from below and currently it is headed up, towards the broken level. If the re-test results in a bounce lower, 1.4830 will become resistance once again and the chances of further downside movement will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Current Account is released and anticipated to show a value of -21.2B. A higher value is usually beneficial for the Pound but the release has mixed impact. At the same time the Final version of U.K.’s Gross Domestic Product is announced but no change is expected (0.5%) so the event might go mostly unnoticed. However, a higher value will likely strengthen the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: FIRST LOOK INTO U.S. EMPLOYMENT SITUATION


EUR/USD



Forex News: The European Consumer Price Index came out with a value close to analysts’ expectations and the release didn’t create strong movement but the pair moved south for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session. U.S. Consumer Confidence improved, contributing to the US Dollar strength.

[Image: 2015.04.01-First-look-into-U.S.-employme...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The minor support at 1.0780 was broken yesterday and the bears seem to regain control over the pair so we expect to see further downside movement during the days to come. Both oscillators are oversold and this could mean that price will touch 1.0780 from below before a stronger bearish move can occur. First level of importance and potential resistance is now 1.0780 while support sits in the zone around 1.0650.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we will get the first look into the American jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non Farm Employment Change. The report shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month but it is not as important as the Government report which comes out Friday. Nonetheless, a higher number than the anticipated 226K will most likely strengthen the Dollar, taking the pair lower.


GBP/USD

After moving slowly for the most part of the day, the pair rallied in the afternoon and managed to climb back above 1.4830 resistance, shifting the balance in favor of the bulls.

[Image: 2015.04.01-First-look-into-U.S.-employme...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.4830 could very well be a false move which can be easily reversed but if the bulls can maintain the pair above the mentioned level after a re-test then we are likely to see an extended climb. On the other hand, a quick move below 1.4830 and below the Exponential Moving Average would mean that yesterday’s break of resistance was just a single impulse and we will likely see a move close to 1.4710 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 54.5, slightly better than last month’s 54.1. This is a leading indicator of economic health focused on the manufacturing sector and higher numbers are beneficial for the British Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: MIXED PRICE ACTION IN ANTICIPATION OF THE U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday’s first look into U.S. employment revealed that the pace of American job creation might be slowing down. The worse than expected value of the ADP Non Farm Employment Change triggered dollar weakness which allowed the pair to climb in the second part of yesterday’s trading session.

[Image: 2015.04.02-Mixed-price-action-in-anticip...24x579.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is now testing 1.0780 from below again but price action is characterized lately by sharp reversals and choppy movement so it appears like the market is waiting for a catalyst to start moving in a clear direction. That catalyst could very well be Friday’s U.S. Non Farm Payrolls so until then we could see more of this uncertainty. The oscillators don’t offer a lot of hints about future direction but as long as price is below the Moving Average and below 1.0780 we slightly favor the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Trade Balance is announced today at 12:30 pm GMT and could be the day’s main market mover. The indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and a higher number is usually beneficial for the greenback. The forecast is -2.0B, better than last month’s -2.5B.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI came out close to analysts’ expectations and the figure didn’t have a strong impact on the Pound. However the US Dollar suffered from a disappointing jobs situation.

[Image: 2015.04.02-Mixed-price-action-in-anticip...24x579.png]

Technical Outlook

Lately the pair is moving above and below 1.4830 without choosing a clear direction. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average coupled with the mentioned level forms a confluence zone which is hard to break especially because neither side is in control. If a bounce occurs at the current level, we anticipate a move lower, into the support located at 1.4710.

Fundamental Outlook

British Construction data is released at 8:30 am GMT; the indicator shows the opinions of purchasing managers about business conditions in the construction sector but the release tends to have mixed impact, depending on the difference between actual number and forecast. Today’s anticipated number is 59.7 and usually higher numbers strengthen the Pound.
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[Image: b21qmYN.jpg]

Keadaan ekonomi kini adalah lebih teruk berbanding dengan keadaan sebelum krisis kewangan tahun 2008. Ini bermaksud kemampuan menangani krisis ekonomi adalah lebih lemah berbanding dengan dahulu.

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FOREX NEWS: GOOD FRIDAY AFFECTS VOLATILITY, U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS RESTORE IT


EUR/USD



Forex News: Although U.S. data came out better than analysts had anticipated, the greenback lost ground against most of its counterparts. The euro was no exception and the pair climbed for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session.

[Image: 2015.04.03-Good-Friday-affects-volatilit...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair climbed strongly but it is now showing signs of rejection at 1.0900 resistance with both oscillators being overbought. This suggests that price will retrace lower even if 1.0900 is going to be broken. However, we expect a slow day until the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are released, because most banks around the world are closed, celebrating Good Friday. The pair’s direction for the remainder of the day will be dependent on the U.S. jobs report outcome.

Fundamental Outlook

As mentioned above, banks around the world are closed today and this might translate into slow price action until the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. This is considered the most important jobs related data and the impact is almost always huge. A higher number than the anticipated 247K will most likely strengthen the greenback, driving the pair lower.


GBP/USD

The pair struggled for almost the entire day to move away from 1.4830 level but it failed to do so even when a worse than expected British Construction PMI was posted.

[Image: 2015.04.03-Good-Friday-affects-volatilit...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair doesn’t move decisively away from 1.4830 the picture will remain unclear and uncertainty will be present. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, the oscillators don’t show an extreme condition and all moves are quickly reversed so we expect choppy price action until the U.S. jobs report is released.

Fundamental Outlook

British banks are closed today, celebrating Good Friday and no economic indicators are released by the United Kingdom. The day’s highlight will be the U.S. Non-Farm Employment report.
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FOREX NEWS: CAN THE US DOLLAR RECOVER FROM THE DAMAGE MADE BY THE NFP?


EUR/USD



Forex News: As anticipated, Friday price action was slow until the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. The disappointing figure of 126K (forecast 246K) triggered dollar weakness and a substantial climb.

[Image: 2015.04.06-Can-the-US-Dollar-recover-fro...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

Friday’s climb took price into 1.1000 resistance but now rejection signs are present. As we saw late during the last session, price bounced lower and the bulls weren’t able to close the week above resistance. This fact coupled with the overbought position of the oscillators might show that a move south is next. If the negative effects of the U.S. jobs report extend throughout the day, we might see higher prices but the Easter holiday is likely to generate irregular volatility.

Fundamental Outlook

Major Banks around the world are closed today, celebrating Easter Monday. This will most likely translate into low or alternating volatility, with the only notable release being the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI. The release is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and the anticipated number is 56.6. Higher figures suggest optimism among purchasing managers outside the manufacturing sector and may strengthen the US Dollar but the impact of the release is uncertain considering the holiday.


GBP/USD

The pair was mostly flat Friday before the NFP report came out and afterwards price behaviour was bullish, based on Dollar weakness, not Pound strength.

[Image: 2015.04.06-Can-the-US-Dollar-recover-fro...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The latest bullish move comes after a period of sideways movement and for the time being it is just a single impulse which might be easily reversed. The day will probably have mixed price action as volatility will be influenced by the Easter holiday. We expect reversals and/or whipsaws on the lower timeframes. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will provide support if price will move south to touch it, which is a very likely scenario, considering the overbought condition of the oscillators.

Fundamental Outlook

British banks one closed today, celebrating Easter Monday and no economic or financial indicators are released.
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FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR STILL WEAK, STAGING A COMEBACK


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was mostly bullish but no major moves took place because a big part of the world celebrated Easter and major banks were closed. The U.S. economic data came out close to analysts’ expectations and the impact was mild.

[Image: image001-1024x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair remained above 1.1000 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, things that show bullish pressure and suggest that we will see a move into 1.1100 resistance in the near future. Before that can happen, the pair must surpass the minor resistance at 1.1050 but considering the overbought condition of the oscillators, we consider that a move into support is very likely. Support is located at the bullish trend line combined with 1.1000.

Fundamental Outlook

Both the euro and the U.S. Dollar have slow days ahead as no major economic indicators are released. Price action will be driven by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Similar to the EUR/USD, the Pound-Dollar had a bullish day for the most part but price action was pretty slow because British banks were closed in celebration of Easter.

[Image: image003-1024x592.png]

Technical Outlook

Price action is bullish at the moment but bearish pressure increases and we expect a descent into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are overbought and this means the chances of moves south have increased. First major support is located at 1.4830 while first resistance sits at 1.5030.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released and is expected to post a reading of 57.1. This is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so higher numbers than analysts’ forecast are usually beneficial for the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTH AHEAD OF FOMC MINUTES


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar managed to erase some of its previous losses and the pair descended below support. The move was mostly generated by technical reasons as no major economic news was released.

[Image: 2015.04.08-Dollar-shows-signs-of-strengt...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.0900 was breached convincingly yesterday and we expect this break to bring in more sellers, resulting in a move lower. However both oscillators are showing an oversold condition of the market on an hourly chart and price traveled a relatively long distance without retracing. This might suggest that we are going to see a climb into 1.0900 before price heads lower. First support is located at 1.0720 but the FOMC Meeting Minutes will play a major role in today’s price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro Zone Retail Sales come out today at 9:00 am GMT with an expected change of -0.1% compared with last month’s 1.1%. Such a drop would weaken the euro but often the indicator triggers only mild moves. Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the minutes of their latest meeting, containing insights into the reasons which determined the latest interest rate vote. The release is usually accompanied by strong movement manly because the document offers hints about future monetary direction.


GBP/USD

The bears took control of the pair yesterday and we saw a perfect touch of 1.4830 support. The British Services PMI posted a better than expected value but this didn’t strengthen the Pound enough to prevent the drop.

[Image: 2015.04.08-Dollar-shows-signs-of-strengt...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

After touching 1.4830 the pair quickly bounced higher but this small bullish move is likely to be short-lived. Our bias is slightly bearish at the moment and we anticipate a move below 1.4830 but lately all moves are quickly reversed and price is not trending strongly so another move into 1.4980 is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases, thus price action will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect and by the FOMC minutes released in the afternoon.
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FOREX NEWS: FOMC MINUTES ADD DOLLAR STRENGTH. MARKET STILL CHOPPY


EUR/USD



Forex News: Before the Fed released the minutes of their latest meeting, the pair moved on an upwards path but found resistance and bounced lower. The US Dollar strengthened at the time of the FOMC release although the document revealed that officials see risks coming from policies overseas and a June rate hike doesn’t have majority support.

[Image: 2015.04.09-FOMC-minutes-add-Dollar-stren...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average offered good resistance yesterday as seen from the bounce lower. The control belongs to the sellers and we expect at least a touch of 1.0720 but price is likely to bounce higher if this support is reached, especially if the oscillators will enter oversold. Resistance is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but our bias is bearish for the moment.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the U.S. Unemployment Claims is the day’s most notable event. The expected number is 283K and lower values are beneficial for the greenback. The time of the release is 12:30 pm GMT but the impact is usually mild because this indicator is released every week.


GBP/USD

Price action was mostly bullish during the first part of yesterday and the pair moved north after a small dip below 1.4830. The FOMC meeting minutes added strength to the greenback but even before the release the pair started to move downwards.

[Image: 2015.04.09-FOMC-minutes-add-Dollar-stren...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The resistance zone around 1.4980 proves very important for short term prices action and yesterday’s bounce confirms this. The pair is ranging lately and it seems the next destination is 1.4830 once more. Our view is neutral on the pair for the time being but we hope the BoE rate decision will generate a breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce their interest rate. The event will probably create just some irregular volatility and not strong directional moves because the chances of a rate change (currently 0.50%) are close to zero.
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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT BROKEN, AIMING FOR NEW LOWS


EUR/USD



Forex News: Although the Unemployment Claims came out with a value close to analysts’ expectations, the US Dollar strengthened against the euro and the pair moved south for the most part of the day. Support was breached and the bears are in control of short term direction.

[Image: 2015.04.10-Support-broken-aiming-for-new...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.0720 was surpassed during yesterday’s drop and we expect price action to remain bearish throughout the day. As long as the pair remains below 1.0720, the first target is represented by 1.0500 although such a strong move might be too much for a single day. On a four hour chart both oscillators show oversold conditions and this means that we might see bullish moves in the form of retracements.

Fundamental Outlook

The fundamental scene is slow today for both the euro and the US Dollar so price movement will be mainly affected by technical factors.


GBP/USD

As expected the Bank of England didn’t modify the interest rate so the event didn’t generate strong moves but US Dollar strength took the pair lower.

[Image: 2015.04.10-Support-broken-aiming-for-new...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

Price moved below 1.4830 and then re-tested it from below successfully, a fact which shows that we are dealing with a true break of support. The short term bias remains negative and we expect an encounter with 1.4710 followed by the low at 1.4635. The oscillators don’t show an extreme oversold condition so there is still room for price to move south but some pullbacks are not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers are released today at 8:30 am GMT with an expected change of 0.4% compared with last month’s -0.5%. Such a change would most likely strengthen the Pound.
At 2:00 am GMT an estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released, offering hints about the health of the economy. The previous estimate was 0.6% and higher values are seen as bullish for the Pound.
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