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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: BULLISH RETRACEMENTS COMPLETE, BEARS MIGHT TAKE OVER AGAIN


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the downtrend took a breather and the bulls managed to take the pair above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Despite yesterday’s climb, the downtrend remains intact.

[Image: 2015.03.17-Bullish-retracements-complete...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

If the break above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average can be sustained, the bulls will encounter the first resistance at 1.0640, followed by 1.0720. However, we must keep in mind that a strong downtrend is still in place and this makes a new encounter with 1.0500 highly probable; the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are both close to their respective overbought levels, a fact that increases the possibility of bearish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is released, showing the opinions of about 275 German analysts and professional investors about the state of the economy. The forecast is 58.9, an increase from the previous 53.0 and usually higher values are beneficial for the euro.

The United States release the Building Permits at 12:30 pm GMT, an indicator that shows the state of the construction sector because any new building requires a permit. Higher numbers than the anticipated 1.07M usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Similar to the euro, the Pound gained against the greenback yesterday but resistance was not broken and the climb was not accompanied by strong momentum.

[Image: 2015.03.17-Bullish-retracements-complete...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The important level at 1.4830 sits in front of price but it wasn’t yet tested as resistance; in other words, it can become resistance but for the time being it is simply a place where price might reverse. However, this level combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average creates a confluence zone which will be hard to break to the upside considering the strength of the downtrend. The overall bias remains bearish and we consider that further downside movement will soon follow, with 1.4700 zone as target.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will have another lackluster day in terms of economic and financial news releases thus price action will be mainly driven by the US events and by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING EYED FOR HINTS ON POTENTIAL RATE HIKE


EUR/USD



Forex News: Although the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey disappointed, the euro climbed yesterday, reaching resistance. Once that happened, bearish pressure started to mount and rejection was shown.

[Image: 2015.03.18-FOMC-Meeting-eyed-for-hints-o...24x595.png]

Technical Outlook

Price remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average for almost the entire day but the resistance at 1.0640 couldn’t be surpassed. Both oscillators are in the upper part of the range and some rejection candles were formed (pin bar on a four-hour chart), so we expect a new leg of the downtrend to begin. The first barrier is represented by the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average and once this support is broken, we expect the pair to reach 1.0500 support rather fast. A move above the current resistance would open the door for touch of 1.0720.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s important events come from the United States: at 6:00 pm GMT the Fed will announce the Interest Rate (no change expected) and will publish the Monetary Policy Statement together with the FOMC Economic Projections. Half an hour later, at 6:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a Press Conference which is expected to be the day’s biggest market mover, especially if she will offer hints about the next rate change. During such speeches, caution is recommended because the market can react wildly.


GBP/USD

The pair dropped for almost the entire day after making another attempt to break the level at 1.4830. The drop wasn’t influenced by major fundamental events and was mostly technical.

[Image: 2015.03.18-FOMC-Meeting-eyed-for-hints-o...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.4830 is now tested resistance and we can expect price to bounce lower if it will touch it again. For the time being it looks like the bears regained control and the possibility of a break of 1.4700 support zone has increased. However the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are moving close to oversold and this could mean that price will climb briefly before breaking support. If this is true, the first resistance will be offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart.

Fundamental Outlook

The British unemployment numbers (Claimant Count Change) come out at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator shows the fluctuation in the number of people that applied for unemployment related benefits during the previous month and usually has a strong impact on the Pound. Lower numbers than the anticipated -30.6k are normally beneficial for the British currency.

At the same time the Bank of England will announce the votes on the latest Interest Rate but no change is expected so the event is likely to go mostly unnoticed.
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FOREX NEWS: YELLEN SHAKES THE MARKET. RETRACEMENTS EXPECTED


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the pair showed the first strong climb in a long while as Fed Chair Janet Yellen expressed concerns about low inflation, given the Dollar’s strength. The Fed kept the rate unchanged but Yellen also mentioned that a rate hike remains possible after the April meeting.

[Image: 2015.03.19-Yellen-shakes-the-market.-Ret...24x595.png]

Technical Outlook

Price broke through both 1.0640 and 1.0720 levels of resistance and further bullish action is a distinct possibility, with 1.0900 as target. However we must keep in mind that a strong downtrend is still in place and on top of that, the Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory. This makes us believe that price will return to re-test the recently broken level at 1.0720 before it can head higher. A bearish break of this level could mean the up move is exhausted and the sellers might regain control.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB will announce today at 10:15 am GMT their Targeted LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option) which is the amount of money they will create and use as loans to European Banks. The expected sum is 40.0 Billion and the impact of the release is not yet known.

At 2:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released and expected to show an increase to 7.2 from the previous 5.2. Such a value or a higher one will generate additional US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

The pair also moved north during Yellen’s speech but the British economic data released previously during the day was disappointing and this could mean the up move will be short-lived.

[Image: 2015.03.19-Yellen-shakes-the-market.-Ret...24x595.png]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.4830 was broken easily yesterday and the same is true for the level at 1.4890 but this was mostly due to Dollar weakness, not Pound strength. Today we expect an encounter with 1.4890 considering the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index and the fact that strong bullish moves in a downtrend are bound to retrace before a new direction can be decided. First resistance is located at 1.5030.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for the day, hence price action will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect and by the US releases.
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FOREX NEWS: UNCERTAINTY SETTLES IN, CHOPPY PRICE ACTION CONTINUES


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair continued to climb yesterday during the Asian session but the start of the European session marked the beginning of a new bearish move which lasted for almost the entire day. Volatility is high and the pair is prone to irregular movement.

[Image: 2015.03.20-Uncertainty-settles-in-choppy...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

After moving up through several resistance levels, the pair broke them all to the downside before finally coming to a stop on the support located at 1.0640. Volatility is high and price action is choppy as seen from yesterday’s sharp reversal. The picture is unclear but the Stochastic is oversold and price is struggling at support so another move north is not out of the question. On the other hand, a break of the current level might take price into the next support which is located around 1.0580.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is the second day of the EU Economic Summit but other than that, the fundamental scene is calm and no major news comes out, so we might see a calm end to a wild trading week.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar pair had a wild day as well, moving through several S/R levels with ease. The Dollar losses were almost completely erased and the bears showed they still have enough underlying strength which shouldn’t be underestimated.

[Image: 2015.03.20-Uncertainty-settles-in-choppy...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The support around 1.4700 prevents the pair from dropping further for the time being. However, we expect the level to be broken today and price to continue to move south towards the low at 1.4635. Keep in mind that price action is choppy and a trend is not present on the lower and medium time frames. Usually in a ranging environment price reacts to oversold /overbought conditions better than in a strong trend so look for bullish movement if the oscillators will descend below their lower levels.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important news releases for the day so we expect price action to be driven by the technical side.
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FOREX NEWS: OSCILLATORS REACH OVERBOUGHT. BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday the pair returned above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, continuing the bullish move started by Yellen’s comments; however major resistance wasn’t breached.

[Image: 2015.03.23-Oscillators-reach-overbought....24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The resistance located at 1.0900 remains intact and both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are indicating overbought conditions. This makes us believe that today price will return close to the support at 1.0640 or at least it will touch the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. On the other hand, a strong break of 1.0900 would make the outlook bullish for the rest of the day.

Fundamental Outlook

ECB President Mario Draghi will testify on monetary policy today at 2:00 pm GMT before the European Parliament. The speech is expected to create strong movement for the euro and also to offer hints regarding future direction. As always, caution is recommended during such speeches.


GBP/USD

The Pound had a tremendous day against the US Dollar Friday and the pair traveled to the upside more than 200 pips.

[Image: 2015.03.23-Oscillators-reach-overbought....24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

Although lately the Dollar is losing ground against its major counterparts, there still is enough underlying strength to stage a descent into the dynamic support represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If price descends but bounces at 1.4890, we expect a climb into the resistance located at 1.5030. Keep in mind that currently the oscillators are close to overbought and this increases the chances of bearish moves.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases so we might have a slow Monday ahead.
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FOREX NEWS: HEADS UP FOR U.S. AND BRITISH INFLATION NUMBERS


EUR/USD



Forex News: The euro outperformed the US Dollar yesterday and a big role in this move was played by Mario Draghi’s optimism regarding the ECB’s bond buying program (QE) and its positive impact on economic recovery.

[Image: 2015.03.24-Heads-up-for-U.S.-and-British...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair breached the resistance located at 1.0900 but it soon returned to re-test the broken level. Considering Draghi’s optimism, we might see an extended upside move, especially if this re-test results in a bounce. If this scenario comes true, the first target for the pair is the resistance level located at 1.1000 but as a counter-argument, the Relative Strength Index is overbought so a move below 1.0900 could mean the bulls are wavering and that price may return in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The euro will be affected today by the release of the French Manufacturing PMI (scheduled at 8:00 am GMT) and the German Manufacturing PMI released half an hour later. The French indicator is expected to post a value of 48.9 while the forecast for the German indicator is 51.5. Better numbers are usually beneficial for the euro but if the difference between actual and forecast is not significant, the impact will be mild.

On the Dollar side, a very important indicator is released today: the Core version of the U.S. Consumer Price Index. This version excludes food and energy from calculation and tends to be the more important one because it reflects more accurately the state of the inflation. The expected change is 0.1% while last month it showed a change of 0.2%.


GBP/USD

Price action was choppy yesterday with moves both to the upside and to the downside. No significant advances were made but we saw a bounce near support.

[Image: 2015.03.24-Heads-up-for-U.S.-and-British...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair came in close vicinity of the support at 1.4830 and breached the 50 period Exponential Moving Average before heading higher. This shows us that support is holding for the time being and suggests that we might see an extended move to the upside which will probably find resistance at 1.5030. First minor resistance in located around 1.4990.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Consumer Price Index is released and expected to post a change of 0.1% compared with last month’s 0.3%. Lately British inflation has been dropping and another move close to negative territory could cause Pound weakness. As always the pair’s direction will also be directly influenced by the U.S. events.
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS MAKING THEIR RUN FOR DOWNTREND RESUMPTION


EUR/USD



Forex News: American inflation was yesterday’s main market mover as it showed better than expected numbers and triggered a bounce at resistance. The US Dollar gained back some of the losses and is now testing support.

[Image: 2015.03.25-Bears-making-their-run-for-do...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday price touched both the resistance at 1.1000 and the support at 1.0900 and is now approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A break of this dynamic support would imply that the bears are preparing for an extended move down which will probably extend into the support located at 1.0780. On the other hand, a bounce at the current support would make 1.1000 the immediate target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey is released and anticipated to show an increase to 107.4 from the previous value of 106.8. The survey has a large sample of about 7,000 businesses that offer their opinion on economic conditions and usually has a strong impact on the euro (better than expected numbers strengthen it). Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT, the U.S. Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years) are released. The consensus is a 0.5% change, which is a big drop from last month’s 2.8% and if even lower numbers are shown, the greenback might be negatively affected.


GBP/USD

British inflation showed slowdown while the U.S. CPI posted an increase and this set the stage for a bearish day. Although the sellers managed to take price lower, the day was choppy and a lot of whipsaws occurred on the lower time frames.

[Image: 2015.03.25-Bears-making-their-run-for-do...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

Price bounced at 1.4990 short term resistance and broke below the 50 period Exponential Moving average on an hourly chart. This suggests that the up move might be exhausted and that further downside will follow. First support and barrier in front of falling price is located at 1.4830 and if the oscillators will show oversold when price touches it, we expect some sort of bullish retracement before a strong attempt to break this level.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so we expect price direction to be primarily influenced by the technical aspect and by the U.S. data.
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FOREX NEWS: BRITISH RETAIL SALES IN THE SPOTLIGHT. BREAKOUTS EXPECTED


EUR/USD



Forex News: American data disappointed yesterday while the German survey posted a better than expected value and this generated a bullish move during the first part of yesterday’s trading session. However resistance couldn’t be broken and the pair didn’t show clear direction.

[Image: 2015.03.26-British-Retail-Sales-in-the-s...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The fact that price bounced for the second time at 1.1000 resistance could suggest that the bulls have ran out of steam and the next move will take the pair below 1.0900 support. This time the hourly Stochastic is overbought and this will make a descent easier. The first barrier is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so if this dynamic support will be broken decisively the chances of a move below 1.0900 will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Unemployment Claims are released at 12:30 pm GMT with an expected number of 291K. The jobs situation is always important for the U.S. economy but because this indicator is released every week, its impact tends to be mild. However, a lower number is considered beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

For almost the entire day yesterday the pair moved in a jagged line. Price action was choppy and support is still holding.

[Image: 2015.03.26-British-Retail-Sales-in-the-s...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

For the time being the direction is unclear for the pair but on the hourly chart we notice a pin bar which is a candle that acts as a warning sign of reversal. A pin on a higher time frame would be even more important but the pair seems to react to the hourly pin as well so we expect further downside movement today. The first support is located at 1.4830 but if the level is reached and price bounces again, this would suggest that the ranging period is still not over.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are released today at 9:30 am GMT and expected to increase 0.4% from last month’s -0.3%. Such a climb would be beneficial for the sterling and would probably take the pair higher. Later in the day, at 5:30 pm GMT, BoE Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech about his role as Chair of the Financial Stability Board. As always, special attention should be paid to speeches of heads of central banks and caution should be used.
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FOREX NEWS: PREPARING FOR A BREAKOUT AT THE END OF A RANGING WEEK


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the pair climbed briefly above 1.1000 but the break soon proved to be a false one and the bears took over for the remaining of the day. The U.S. Unemployment Claims posted a better than expected reading and the greenback strengthened as a result.

[Image: 2015.03.27-Preparing-for-a-breakout-at-t...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

Price is currently testing the support at 1.0900 but if sellers can take it below this level we are likely to see downtrend resumption. Both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are angled downwards, suggesting that the bearish move is still far from over and price pierced the 50 period Exponential Moving Average in a decisive fashion, so at the moment all hints suggest that price will continue south. Of course a bounce at the current level would invalidate this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

The Final version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product is released today at 12:30 pm GMT. Although this is the least important out of the three versions, it can still have a strong impact on the US Dollar. The anticipated value is 2.4% while the previous was 2.2% and higher values are beneficial for the greenback.

At 7:45 pm GMT Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at a Press Conference in San Francisco. Audience questions are expected and this makes the speech more important but the late hour might have an influence on volatility.


GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales posted a better value than analysts expected and this generated Pound strength during the first part of yesterday’s trading session. However resistance proved too strong and the bulls ran out of steam so the pair moved south after a bounce at 1.4990.

[Image: 2015.03.27-Preparing-for-a-breakout-at-t...24x592.png]

Technical Outlook

The important support at 1.4830 sits again in front of falling price. Our bias is bearish, anticipating a break of this level but a bounce followed by a move higher is not out of the question considering the fact that the pair is currently in a ranging period. If the support will be broken we would like to see it re-tested from below before we can consider a true breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

The British fundamental scene lacks major events today so price direction will be mainly decided by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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FOREX NEWS: UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT. GERMAN INFLATION EYED


EUR/USD



Forex News: The Final version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product showed a slightly lower value than analysts expected and this triggered a climb Friday but the pair returned below 1.0900 late during the session, helped by Yellen’s comments.

[Image: 2015.03.30-Uncertainty-still-present.-Ge...24x595.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair returned below 1.0900 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the Stochastic is crossing downwards at the top of its range, close to overbought. These are bearish signs which make us believe that today price will travel south, towards the minor support located at 1.0780. If price moves back above 1.0900 the first resistance will be offered by 1.1000.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index is released, showing the change in German inflation. The consensus is 0.4% which is lower than the previous 0.9% so we might see euro weakness if analysts’ forecast comes true and the opposite is true for a higher value.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair continued to move in a range and neither side managed to take clear control. The disappointing American GDP generated some US Dollar weakness but nothing substantial.

[Image: 2015.03.30-Uncertainty-still-present.-Ge...24x595.png]

Technical Outlook

Price is moving sideways without clear direction and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat so our bias is neutral on the pair until a clear break occurs. The Stochastic is crossing downwards coming out of overbought territory and this might create some bearish pressure but no major moves are expected until the range is broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Net Lending to Individuals is released at 8:30 am GMT showing the change in total credit given to consumers. A higher value than the anticipated 2.5B suggests that people are comfortable spending money and this is usually beneficial for the Pound but the indicator has a medium impact so we don’t expect major moves at the time of the release.
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