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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: FIRST U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA OF THE WEEK DECIDES DIRECTION


EUR/USD



Forex News: The Spanish unemployment numbers came out better than analysts expected but the event did not produce euro strength and the day had mixed price action, with no side being in clear control.

[Image: 2015.03.04-First-U.S.-employment-data-of...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

On an hourly chart it can be seen that price created minor support at 1.1155 and this level now represents the first obstacle in front of falling prices. Currently the pair is trapped between the mentioned support and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which is angled downward, suggesting that we will see further bearish action. If price moves above the moving average, we will most likely see a touch of 1.1245; otherwise the target remains the zone around 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

Europe will release its Retail Sales numbers today at 10:00 am GMT; a small decrease from the previous 0.3% to 0.2% is expected and this would weaken the euro but the event is not always a huge market mover. Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT the ADP Non Farm Employment is released, showing the change in the number of employed people according to Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) which is a privately owned company. Although the impact is not as strong as the one of the Government data which comes out 2 days later, higher numbers than the anticipated 219K can strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

A better than anticipated value of the British Construction PMI didn’t have a strong bullish impact on the Pound and yesterday price came in close vicinity of support before bouncing higher.

[Image: 2015.03.04-First-U.S.-employment-data-of...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Similar to the euro, the sterling is trapped between horizontal support and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the moving average will be surpassed, price will find resistance at 1.5420, followed by 1.5460 but the pair is under bearish pressure and this increases the chances of a break of 1.5340 support. Since the technical picture is not very clear, a lot will depend on the economic data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in the services sector. The indicator can have a mild impact especially if the actual number will be close to analysts’ expectations of 57.6. The U.S. employment data is likely to have a stronger impact on the pair than the Services PMI.
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS IN CONTROL. BUCKLE UP FOR DRAGHI’S PRESS CONFERENCE


EUR/USD



Forex News: The bears scored a major victory yesterday and took price significantly lower, below the last important support. The economic data released had little impact on price action.

[Image: 2015.03.05-Bears-in-control.-Buckle-up-f...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The support zone around 1.1100 was broken decisively yesterday and this means that price will not encounter notable support until 1.0765 is reached (visible on a Monthly chart). This level was last touched in 2003 so its importance cannot be assessed; the fact that it is far away from price also makes it less important at the moment. For the time being the bears are in control and we expect further downside movement after brief retracements.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB will announce the interest rate at 12:45 pm GMT but because no change is anticipated (0.05%), the Press Conference which follows 45 minutes later will be the day’s main event. Mario Draghi will discuss the reasons which determined the rate decision and will probably offer insights into the bond buying program. The single currency is likely to have a strong reaction to Draghi’s comments so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The Pound also weakened against the US Dollar and support was broken; a weaker British Services PMI also contributed to the drop.

[Image: 2015.03.05-Bears-in-control.-Buckle-up-f...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price moved through 1.5340 and 1.5300 with ease before pausing at 1.5260, making the medium term outlook bearish. We expect further downside movement after a brief stall at the current level. The Relative Strength Index is oversold and this increases the chances of bullish price action but the extent should be limited.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate (no change expected); the last few rate announcements didn’t create a lot of volatility for the Pound, mainly because nobody is expecting a rate change and the BoE is not hinting towards such a change. We expect the same for today’s release but beware of any surprises.
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FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON THE UNITED STATES FOR THE NON FARM PAYROLLS RELEASE


EUR/USD



Forex news: The euro had another rough day yesterday on the back of Mario Draghi’s comments. The interest rate remained unchanged so the event went mostly unnoticed but the ECB press conference generated strong moves; the euro was initially strengthened by improved economic projections but soon after it dropped to fresh lows.

[Image: 2015.03.06-All-eyes-on-the-United-States...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The bullish impulse seen at the beginning of the press conference took the pair into the level at 1.1114 which has now turned into resistance, considering that price bounced there. The bears remain in control and the pair is still under pressure, with support located at 1.1000. This is a psychological level (big round number), but also a technical support because yesterday’s drop stopped there. Today’s direction will be mostly dependent on the U.S. Employment numbers.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Non Farm Payrolls are scheduled for release at 1:30 pm GMT and are expected to post a change of 240K compared with last month’s 257K. Job creation is tightly correlated with spending levels and that’s why rising employment is considered bullish for the US Dollar. The release creates strong volatility more often than not, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar had a quiet day; the Bank of England kept the interest rate at 0.50% and this contributed to the lack of strong movement.

[Image: 2015.03.06-All-eyes-on-the-United-States...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved and remained below 1.5260 which is now short term resistance. The Relative Strength Index is moving above its 30 level, coming from overbought territory and this favors bullish pullbacks but we don’t expect the bulls to show a lot of strength unless the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls offer surprises. The first support is located at 1.5200 but the day’s bias depends on the U.S. employment data.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic or financial news releases so the main event comes from the United States in the form of the Non Farm Payrolls.
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FOREX NEWS: EUROGROUP MEETINGS TO AFFECT THE EURO AS U.S. DOLLAR STRENGTH CONTINUES


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday the Non Farm Payrolls showed an increase to 295K while analysts’ consensus was 240K thus the US Dollar strengthened substantially against the euro and the pair experienced a sharp selloff.

[Image: 2015.03.09-Eurogroup-Meetings-to-affect-...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

Although the bears are in complete control of the pair and 1.1000 support was broken, we expect bullish pullbacks mainly because the current move seems overextended and both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are deep in oversold territory. The main bias is of course bearish so we will probably see further downside movement after brief retracements; 1.0765 is the next potential support level.

Fundamental Outlook

Important political and financial personalities will attend today the Eurogroup Meetings. The Greek bailout will be one of the topics thus euro volatility might be present. Other than this, the fundamental scene is slow and no major economic indicators are released.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar strengthened across the board and the Pound-Dollar pair dropped for more than 200 pips Friday on the back of a strong U.S. Non Farm Payrolls report.

[Image: 2015.03.09-Eurogroup-Meetings-to-affect-...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The recent strength exhibited by the US Dollar is likely to continue throughout the week but bullish pullbacks are a distinct possibility today; however the extent of these bullish moves should be limited. Notable resistance is located at 1.5200 while support sits at 1.4830 but both levels are far away from current price so we don’t expect either of them to be touched today; support and resistance levels should be identified on lower time frames (i.e. 15 minutes chart) but these are less reliable.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major economic releases scheduled for today so price action will be mostly influenced by technical factors.
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jauh da bearish.. Lembu da tak nampak dah
[Image: 468x60-cloudhosting.jpg]
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FOREX NEWS: BULLISH PULLBACKS COMPLETE, SELLING PRESSURE MOUNTS


EUR/USD



Forex News: The euro posted modest gains against the US Dollar during the first part of yesterday’s trading session after hitting its lowest level since September 2003. However, in the second part of the session, the Dollar regained most of its strength.

[Image: 2015.03.10-Bullish-pullbacks-complete-se...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s climb cleared the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart and this allows further bearish movement, with 1.0820 being the first support zone. The bias remains negative for a break of the mentioned support, while first resistance is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; a move above it would suggest that the bulls are staging a deeper retracement but would not make the overall trend bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECOFIN meetings take place today, attended by Finance Ministers from the European Union member states. The impact of the meetings on the euro may be mild but surprises can occur, so caution is always recommended when this type of events take place.


GBP/USD

The Pound gained yesterday against the greenback and overall we had a bullish day but the downtrend remained intact and the climb was just a much-needed pullback.

[Image: 2015.03.10-Bullish-pullbacks-complete-se...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Although the bulls took price higher yesterday, the pair remains in a clear downtrend and we anticipate the bearish movement to resume. The first target is located at 1.5030, which is now minor support; the overbought condition of the Stochastic (11, 6, 6) indicator will increase the chances of moves south. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average represents the first resistance and a place where downwards movement may resume.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee. The testimony is scheduled at 10:35 am GMT and the impact is unclear, depending on the matters discussed during the meeting and on the Governor’s attitude.
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FOREX NEWS: DOWNTREND PAUSES BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH SOUTH


EUR/USD



Forex News: The US Dollar outperformed the euro for yet another day and important support was breached. Brief bullish pullbacks were seen but overall the bears are in clear control.

[Image: 2015.03.11-Downtrend-pauses-before-anoth...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.0765 was last touched in 2003 but it seems price is reacting to it because, as we saw yesterday, the pair traded above and below it successively. The main strength belongs to the bears and we expect the downtrend to continue but the first barrier in front of falling prices is located at 1.0720 (this is minor support and we expect it to be broken). A move back above 1.0765 would suggest that price is likely to move higher, close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

ECB President Mario Draghi will speak today at a Conference organized in Frankfurt by the Center of Financial Studies. The early hour of the speech (8:00 am GMT) could cause limited impact on the currency market, but surprises can occur so caution is recommended nonetheless.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s price action was mixed; the bears managed to take price into short-term support but they ran out of steam before being able to break it. This might be a sign that the downtrend is stalling.

[Image: 2015.03.11-Downtrend-pauses-before-anoth...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair formed a double bottom at 1.5030. This is a bullish chart pattern and suggests that further upside movement might follow but the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is likely to offer resistance and to push price lower if touched. The first horizontal resistance is located at 1.5130 but keep in mind the overall bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production is released today at 9:30 am GMT with an expected change of 0.2% compared with the previous 0.1%. The manufacturing sector is a major part of the British economy and increases could lead to a stronger Pound. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, an estimate of U.K.’s Gross Domestic Product is released; the previous estimate was 0.7% and again, higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: CAN THE U.S. RETAIL SALES CHANGE THE SHORT-TERM BIAS?


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the decline continued and the pair dropped more than 140 pips, moving below 1.0600. This is one of the sharpest falls since the pair’s “birth” and the bulls have no answer for it so far.

[Image: image001-1024x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Both the Relative Strength index and the Stochastic are oversold but that is not news anymore and if a bounce higher occurs, it will not be because of this condition of the oscillators. Price paused yesterday at 1.0560 so this level will represent minor support, while psychological support sits at 1.0500. In early 2003 price bounced higher from the mentioned level but we cannot be certain how it will react this time. The bias remains negative.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT, the United States will release the Retail Sales numbers, which are usually very important for US Dollar strength because sales made at retail level represent the biggest part of overall consumer spending. The expected change is 0.5%, a hefty increase from last month’s -0.8% and higher than anticipated values will be beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing Production numbers disappointed yesterday and this, coupled with US Dollar strength, generated another sharp selloff and a break of support.

[Image: image003-1024x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The double bottom formed at 1.5030 was broken yesterday and the pair remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the main picture remains bearish. However, this does not exclude some sort of retracements higher but a touch of the first potential resistance (1.5030) is not likely to happen today unless surprises occur. The next support is the important level at 1.4830.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to speak today at 12:45 pm GMT at the Advanced Manufacturing Research Center. The speech is not expected to have huge impact but be cautious nonetheless.
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FOREX NEWS: BOTH PAIRS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE, TARGETING NEW LOWS


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the pair posted the biggest rally in a month, after an almost perfect bounce off 1.0500 support. The U.S. Retail Sales showed a slowdown and this contributed to the bullish movement seen yesterday.

[Image: image0011-1024x479.png]

Technical Outlook

For the first time in a long while the Stochastic oscillator went above its 80 level, suggesting the pair is overbought. On top of this, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average seems to offer good resistance so far and these factors combined with the strength of the downtrend will most likely trigger another drop. The first tested support is located at 1.0500 while potential support sits at 1.0560.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important economic indicators come from the United States today as well: at 12:30 pm GMT, the Producer Price index comes out, showing potential changes in the price charged by manufacturers for their goods. The indicator has inflationary implications (a higher price charged by producers will be eventually paid by the client) and that is why values above the forecast 0.2% are viewed as beneficial for the greenback.

At 2:00 pm GMT, the University of Michigan will release the Consumer Sentiment survey, which is expected to post a reading of 95.6. Higher numbers will probably strengthen the US Dollar because consumer sentiment is tightly correlated with consumer spending.


GBP/USD

The Pound also strengthened against the greenback but the bulls could not sustain the climb and all gains were erased once resistance was touched.

[Image: image0031-1024x479.png]

Technical Outlook

So far the level at 1.5030 was considered potential resistance but the way price bounced yesterday, turns it into tested resistance thus we might see additional rejections if the pair climbs to touch it again. Minor support is located at 1.4890 but we expect it to be broken today and the pair to continue on its way to 1.4830 major support. The first potential resistance is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

Because the United Kingdom did not schedule important news releases for today, the movement of the pair will be mainly affected by the U.S. events mentioned earlier.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. DOLLAR SLOWS ITS ASSAULT: POSSIBLE TREND CONSOLIDATION TO FOLLOW


EUR/USD



Forex News: Although the U.S economic data released Friday disappointed somewhat, the pair continued to descend and the greenback extended its gains against the euro.

[Image: 2015.03.16-U.S.-Dollar-slows-its-assault...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

The important support level at 1.0500 was broken Friday and now price has returned to re-test it from below. If the current encounter will result in a bounce lower, 1.0500 will become resistance, with the potential to reject price in the future. A move above the current level will probably find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which combined with the level at 1.0560 will create a confluence zone.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Industrial Production numbers are released at 1:15 pm GMT but this indicator usually has a strong impact on the greenback only if a hefty difference between forecast and actual number is shown. The forecast for today’s release is 0.3% while last month’s value was 0.2%.

At 6:45 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the SZ Finance Day 2015 “The Future of the Finance Industry – Between Growth and Regulation” summit. The impact on the single currency may be strong but it all depends on the subjects under discussion and Draghi’s attitude. Caution is recommended if trading during his speech.


GBP/USD

Similar to the euro, the sterling posted big losses against the greenback and the pair had another strong bearish day, dropping for almost 200 pips.

[Image: 2015.03.16-U.S.-Dollar-slows-its-assault...24x477.png]

Technical Outlook

Price paused around 1.4710 after a sharp fall but this minor support is likely to be broken today given the massive bear strength exhibited lately. However, the chances of bullish retracements have increased because price traveled a long distance south in a very short period. The oscillators are moving upwards, coming out of oversold territory but this does not suggest a reversal, just brief pullbacks, probably followed by further downside movement.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow day ahead in terms of British economic news releases and this fact might generate slow, ranging price action.
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