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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: BROKEN RESISTANCE OPENS THE DOOR FOR FURTHER ADVANCES


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair finally broke out of the tight range, mostly due to a disappointing U.S. Retail Sales report which showed a -0.8% change compared with the expected -0.4%.

[Image: 2015.02.13-Broken-resistance-opens-the-d...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Although 1.1360 resistance is broken, price is likely to return in that area for a re-test, considering the overbought condition showed by the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart. If the touch will result in a bounce higher, the next target is located at 1.1500 but a return below 1.1360 would indicate that the ranging period is still not over and will open the door for a move back into 1.1270 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Gross Domestic Product is scheduled for release at 7:00 am GMT and an increase is anticipated from the previous 0.1% to 0.3%. This would strengthen the Euro since the German economy is of major importance to the entire Euro zone and the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release a Consumer Sentiment survey which is expected to show a value of 98.2, almost unchanged from last month’s 98.1. Higher values are usually beneficial for the US Dollar as consumer sentiment is tightly correlated to consumer spending.


GBP/USD

Mark Carney’s speech together with the Inflation Report generated Pound strength although the event contained some mixed – even contradictory – signals regarding inflation and a potential rate cut.

[Image: 2015.02.13-Broken-resistance-opens-the-d...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index moved well above the 70 level, signaling an overbought condition of price. This means that we might see bearish retracements which will most likely find support near 1.5340 zone, followed by 1.5300. The next important resistance is located around 1.5540 but we don’t expect such a move unless surprising developments take place.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases thus price direction will be decided by technical factors and by the U.S Consumer Sentiment.
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FOREX NEWS: EUROGROUP MEETINGS AND GREEK DEBT TAKE CENTER STAGE


EUR/USD



Forex News: The German Gross Domestic Product surpassed analysts’ expectations Friday and the U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey disappointed but despite all this, the day lacked clear direction and no major advances were made.

[Image: 2015.02.16-Eurogroup-Meetings-and-Greek-...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

Latest price action created minor resistance at 1.1440 and now the pair is headed towards 1.1360. Although last week was bullish, the advance is not strong and a move into support is very likely, especially if the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken to the downside. Overall we expect a slow day due to the lack of major economic announcements, but if new developments for the Greek debt issue take place, we will most likely see strong moves.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings take place today, attended by key personalities from the financial and political scene. The Greek debt issue will be discussed and will play an important role for today’s price direction. Keep in mind that the meetings are closed to the press but sometimes information is leaked throughout the day and an official statement is released once the meetings finish. U.S. banks will be closed, celebrating President’s Day thus no major economic indicators are released.


GBP/USD

The pair had an almost flat day Friday and neither side made any advances. U.S. consumer data came out below analysts’ expectations but this wasn’t enough to create directional movement.

[Image: 2015.02.16-Eurogroup-Meetings-and-Greek-...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

If price touches 1.5420 again but the bulls cannot break it on the first try, we expect price to drop below the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average and to head towards 1.5340. A break of this level would expose 1.5300 support but we don’t expect a break of this level to happen today. Since the end of last month the pair has been in an uptrend so a bullish bounce at 1.5340 is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks British economic indicators thus price action will be driven by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: HEADS UP FOR BRITISH INFLATION AND GERMAN ZEW SURVEY


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was slow and the pair lacked strong directional movement as U.S. banks were closed in observance of Presidents’ Day and at least at the time of writing, a clear solution to the Greek debt problem hasn’t been reached.

[Image: 2015.02.17-Heads-up-for-British-inflatio...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The minor resistance at 1.1440 wasn’t threatened yesterday and the same is true for the support at 1.1360. For the time being the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is offering good support from a short time perspective; a clean break of this line will open the door for a touch of 1.1360 while a bounce and consequent break of 1.1440 will make 1.1500 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, showing the opinions of about 275 German analysts and professional investors regarding a 6 month economic outlook. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and numbers above the anticipated 56.2 usually strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The picture remains unclear for the Pound-Dollar as yesterday we saw a failed breakout, followed by a bearish move below 1.5420.

[Image: 2015.02.17-Heads-up-for-British-inflatio...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

Current direction favors the bears and resistance is still holding so price is likely to continue moving down and to find support at 1.5340. If the Relative Strength Index becomes oversold by the time price touches support, we anticipate a bullish bounce and keep in mind that price is in a medium term uptrend so we might see continuation moves above 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Consumer Price Index is released today at 9:30 and is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous 0.5%. The indicator is the main gauge of British inflation and usually lower numbers than analysts’ forecast are detrimental for the Pound so we might see down moves if this comes true.
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FOREX NEWS: GREEK ISSUE STILL UNSOLVED, FED MEETING MINUTES AHEAD


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the Euro weakened against the US Dollar in the first part of the session but erased some of the losses once the German ZEW came out with a better value than previous. Although analysts anticipated a stronger climb, it is still the highest in a year and this added some fuel to the single currency.

[Image: image001-1024x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Despite the Euro strength generated by the ZEW value, the bulls couldn’t break 1.1440 and the pair started to move south once again. The Greek debt problem is still not solved and this is one of the reasons why the market is still searching for a clear direction. Today we expect another touch of 1.1360 support but our view is mostly neutral as price direction still remains heavily influenced by the Greek talks.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important event for the US Dollar is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT. It will contain details of the Fed’s latest meeting and more importantly, it can offer hints about future monetary policy direction. If this is the case, the market will react swiftly and the greenback will show strong movement.


GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index met analysts’ forecast, showing a change of 0.3% and this created mixed reaction. The bulls failed to threaten resistance and the bears are looking stronger for the time being.

[Image: image003-1024x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Current momentum belongs to the bears as they managed to take price below 1.5340 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart. If bearish pressure mounts, today we expect a touch of 1.5260 but 1.5300 could be a strong barrier in front of falling prices. A bounce above 1.5340 would probably generate an extended move into 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Claimant Count Change is released. The anticipated figure is -25.2K and usually lower numbers are beneficial for the currency because the indicator shows how many people applied for unemployment-related benefits. At the same time the Bank of England will announce a breakdown of their latest rate votes but usually this event only creates strong movement if one or more of the MPC members changed their stance.
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FOREX NEWS: BREAKOUT IMMINENT. SPEECHES AND TESTIMONIES HOLD THE HEADLINES


EUR/USD



Forex News: The German IFO Business Climate survey posted a value below analysts’ expectations and the euro weakened as a result. However the pair remained in ranging mode and neither support nor resistance was broken.

[Image: 2015.02.24-Breakout-imminent.-Speeches-a...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

A breakout is imminent but the direction remains uncertain; the important levels for short-term price action remain 1.1440 as resistance and 1.1270 as support. A break of either of them will mark the end of the ranging period but since price came in close vicinity of support and couldn’t break it, we expect a bounce higher which can find resistance at 1.1440. However, until a clear break occurs, our view remains neutral on this pair.

Fundamental Outlook

ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak today at the official unveiling of the 20 Euro banknote. The event takes place in Frankfurt at 2:00 pm GMT and is followed at 3:00 pm GMT by Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. This testimony is likely to generate more volatility, depending on her altitude and answers. At the same time the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released and expected to show a drop to 99.6 from the previous 102.9. Consumer confidence is correlated with consumer spending so a higher than anticipated value will strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The British CBI Realized Sales posted a surprisingly low value of 1 while analysts’ expected 42. This initially generated Pound weakness but a remarkable reversal occurred soon after, without any apparent reason.

[Image: 2015.02.24-Breakout-imminent.-Speeches-a...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

After bouncing at 1.5420 the pair headed into the support located at 1.5340 as expected, but here a near perfect bounce occurred, followed by a climb of more than 100 pips. Currently the bulls are trying to break 1.5460 and if they succeed, the door will be open for an extended move into 1.5540 resistance. The Relative Strength Index is close to overbought, a fact which may hinder further bullish movement for the time being. The first potential support is located at 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the British Inflation Report Hearings take place. Bank of England Governor and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee on economic growth and inflation. The hearings last a few hours during which volatility may increase and sharp moves can occur so caution is recommended. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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FOREX NEWS: THE MARATHON OF TESTIMONIES CONTINUES. VOLATILITY EXPECTED


EUR/USD



Forex News: Janet Yellen’s testimony yesterday triggered mixed up and down movement as she mentioned that the Fed is expecting inflation to rise to 2% but a rate hike is unlikely to happen during the next two Fed meetings. The range was not broken.

[Image: 2015.02.25-The-marathon-of-testimonies-c...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is still trading inside the horizontal channel created by 1.1440 resistance and 1.1270 support, with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the 2 oscillators moving almost flat on a four hour chart. If price approaches support again and fails to break it, we anticipate a move into 1.1440 resistance but given the sideways movement seen lately, our view remains mainly neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 3:00 pm GMT Fed Chair Yellen will testify again, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. The speech and the questions she will receive are likely to generate strong and even mixed market reaction so we recommend caution. At 4:30 pm GMT ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament on the ECB Annual Report 2013. All his public speeches can easily create volatility but price direction is usually determined by his attitude and answers.


GBP/USD

The British Inflation Report hearings went mostly unnoticed yesterday and the strongest movement was seen at the time of Yellen’s testimony.

[Image: 2015.02.25-The-marathon-of-testimonies-c...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5460 is still holding but so is the minor support at 1.5420. A move outside this 40 pips range is very likely to occur today and considering that price made several unsuccessful attempts to break resistance, we consider that the chances of a bullish break have decreased. If the pair can move below 1.5420, we expect a touch of the support at 1.5340.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Bankers’ Association will release today at 9:30 am GMT the Mortgage Approvals. This indicator offers insights into the British house market and usually higher numbers than the forecast 36.2K are beneficial for the Pound. Half an hour later BoE Governor Mark Carney will deliver a public speech at the launch of the One Bank Research Agenda but the impact on the currency market is likely to be mild.
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FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN INFLATION DATA AND U.K. GDP – THE DAY’S MAIN MARKET MOVERS


EUR/USD



Forex News: The testimonies of Yellen and Draghi did not create the anticipated volatility and the pair had another slow, choppy day. Both support and resistance are still intact and the ranging period is still not over.

[Image: 2015.02.26-American-inflation-data-and-U...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Although it’s mostly flat, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average seems to offer a minimum of resistance as seen from yesterday’s price action. However, the pair is moving sideways and lately it isn’t even trying to break the resistance at 1.1440 or the support at 1.1270. Until a clean break of the mentioned levels occurs, the pair’s movement will remain choppy and unpredictable.

Fundamental Outlook

American inflation data will be today’s main event. The US Consumer Price Index, which is the primary gauge of inflation will be released at 1:30 pm GMT and is expected to change -0.6%, compared with the previous -0.4%. Fed Chair Yellen mentioned during a previous testimony that inflation is expected to grow towards 2.0%, but so far the numbers are still dropping; if today we see another dip, the US Dollar is likely to be negatively affected.


GBP/USD

The British Bankers’ Association Mortgage Approvals came out close to the anticipated value but the Pound continued to strengthen throughout the day and major resistance was touched.

[Image: 2015.02.26-American-inflation-data-and-U...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The resistance located at 1.5540 was touched yesterday and price quickly reacted by moving lower; the Relative Strength Index was overbought and this contributed to the bounce. Today we expect price to remain between 1.5540 resistance and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a break of either of them will probably determine the next medium term direction. Another bounce at resistance would imply that lower prices will follow.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the second estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released (forecast 0.5%) and can have a strong impact on the Pound since the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge; however, this is the second version of the indicator and tends to have a lower impact than the Preliminary version.
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FOREX NEWS: TRADERS’ ATTENTION SHIFTS TOWARDS GERMAN INFLATION AND AMERICAN GDP AS BEARS REGAIN CONTROL


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the pair finally broke out of the range it was confined in. American inflation increased as shown by the Core version of the CPI indicator. The Durable Goods Orders also showed an increase, contributing to US Dollar strength.

[Image: 2015.02.27-Traders-attention-shifts-towa...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.1270 support will play a major role for future price action if the bears can keep the pair below this level. Clearly the recent momentum belongs to the bears and we anticipate further movement south but a re-test of the broken level is very possible, considering that the Relative Strength Index is close to its 30 level, indicating oversold. Our current bias is bearish after brief retracements, with 1.1270 acting as potential resistance and 1.1100 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The focus will shift today towards German inflation data which is released at 1:00 pm GMT. A hefty increase from the previous -1.1% to 0.6% is expected and if this forecast comes true, the euro will most likely strengthen. Half an hour later the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product comes out; the anticipated change is 2.1% while the previous was 2.6%. Although the first version (Advance) is the most important, the Preliminary also has the potential to strongly move the currency; higher percentages are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD

British Gross Domestic Product matched analysts’ expectations and the event didn’t have a massive impact but the US data generated a sharp fall which broke several support levels.

[Image: 2015.02.27-Traders-attention-shifts-towa...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The bulls tried to take price above 1.5540 – 1.5550 resistance but failed to do so and this was a sign that their strength is fading. The pair is now trading comfortably below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.5460 but 1.5420 is not clearly broken yet. We expect price to move below this level, towards 1.5340 but before that can happen, a retracement higher is needed; adding to this opinion is the position of the Relative Strength Index which is signaling an oversold condition.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic data releases today so price direction will be influenced by the U.S. events and by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: SHORT TERM MOMENTUM FAVORS THE BEARS, EUROPEAN INFLATION TO DECIDE NEXT MOVE


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday the pair was mostly controlled by the bears as the U.S. Gross Domestic Product exceeded analysts’ expectations, but some euro strength was also seen. The main reason for bullish moves was the German CPI which showed an increase.

[Image: 2015.03.02-Short-term-momentum-favors-th...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair’s direction for the day will be influenced by European inflation numbers but if no surprises occur, we expect further downside movement after brief bullish pullbacks. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are moving slightly below their oversold levels and this increases the chances of upwards price action. First potential resistance is represented by Friday’s high located at 1.1245.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Consumer Price Index is scheduled for release today at 10:00 am GMT and the expected change is -0.5%, better than the previous -0.6%. Current European inflation is considered too low compared with ECB’s target of just below 2.0% so another decrease would be detrimental for the single currency while an increase would strengthen the euro.

U.S. Manufacturing PMI is released at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to post a figure of 53.4, almost unchanged from the previous 53.5. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which acts as a leading indicator of optimism regarding the business conditions in the manufacturing sector; higher values are beneficial for the US Dollar but the impact is not always strong.


GBP/USD

Friday price climbed back between support and resistance and overall we had a choppy session, with control shifting between bulls and bears.

[Image: 2015.03.02-Short-term-momentum-favors-th...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is confined between 1.5460 resistance and 1.5420 support but we expect this to change today. Price hit the 50 period Exponential Moving Average several times Friday but failed to surpass it and this shows that the bulls have run out of steam. Price direction for the day will be influenced by the U.S. and British data but we expect descent below 1.5420 en route to Friday’s low; a clean break above 1.5460 would decrease the chances of such a descent.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, showing the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers about business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The expected figure is 53.5 and numbers above that can strengthen the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: BULLS FADING AS SHORT TERM RESISTANCE GENERATES MOVES SOUTH


EUR/USD



Forex News: European inflation showed improvement yesterday and the single currency reacted accordingly by strengthening when the data came out. However, the second part of yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears.

[Image: 2015.03.03-Bulls-fading-as-short-term-re...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair climbed to touch Friday’s high located at 1.1245 but the level offered good resistance and price soon bounced lower. This adds to our bearish bias and we consider the next destination to be the support zone near 1.1100. The fact that the Stochastic is below 30 and the Relative Strength Index is also moving close to oversold could invalidate this scenario and could generate some bullish movement; however, if price does move north but 1.1270 is not broken, the chances of a move into 1.1100 will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The Spanish Unemployment numbers are released at 8:00 am GMT and this will be the day’s main event. The indicator tracks changes in the number of unemployed people compared with the previous month and usually creates strong movement only if big differences are posted. For today’s release analysts expect a drop from the previous 78.0K to 10.5K and this would strengthen the euro because fewer unemployed people are beneficial for the economy.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI came out slightly better than analysts anticipated and this triggered some mild Pound strength but soon after the release, the US Dollar erased the small Pound gains and the pair started to move south.

[Image: 2015.03.03-Bulls-fading-as-short-term-re...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved below 1.5420 once again and then returned for a perfect re-test which resulted in a bounce lower; the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is above price and the momentum belongs to the bears so we anticipate a touch of 1.5340 support. If the Relative Strength Index will become oversold by the time price reaches support, we expect small bullish bounces; the extent of these bounces is likely to be limited.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to slightly decrease from the previous 59.1 to 59.0. This is a leading indicator of economic health which usually has a medium impact on the currency but higher numbers are considered beneficial. Half an hour later, at 10:00 am GMT, Governor Mark Carney will testify before the Treasury Select Committee and the impact on the currency market could be strong, depending on his attitude and answers. Caution is recommended.
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